Stalin obviously wasn’t great either, but I’d argue he was just a continuation of other peoples ideologies, so I think some of the blame can be shared elsewhere (even though he ramped things up a notch or two).
No I don't think so. Lenin was a communist, Stalin was a murderous megalomaniac dictator. Communism isn't necessarily murderous.
I’m hard pressed to think of anyone who has soley been responsible for more utter turmoil in the world than Putin
100% correct. But he's not alone in causing it. A fair bit of blame can be directed towards our own leaders and the system of business putting profits before good sense or even their own citizens.
How many people have died so far in Ukraine? Mao killed that many before breakfast.
Communism isn’t necessarily murderous.
It is necessary authoritarian though.
How many people have died so far in Ukraine? Mao killed that many before breakfast.
Agreed, but not talking about pure murder count here. Otherwise pot would be Miles ahead also
Specifically global impact. Which admittedly Mao had
It is necessary authoritarian though.
Not really. You have Kibbutzes working on a small scale and some other examples. Whether it can be scaled up is far more questionable though and especially managing to enact it on a national scale.
Do we include climate change on the 'global death responsibility scale'? If so, we all need to look in a mirror...
I don't know if anyone follows Kamil Galeev on Twitter? He offers some fascinating insights to the Russian psyche and how they often view the world very differently to people in the West.
I thought this thread was interesting, explaining the dilema for Putin about how to honour Gorbachev. On the one hand he's hated in Russian and seen as the architect of the fall of the Soviet empire. But on the other hand, to not honour him would undermine the status of Russia's leader - including the current one.
Also, unlike the West how being a family man is seen as a weakness for politicians in Russia!
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1565348324831789056?t=rJ5JKsk6EYg9GDo0hkYI5g&s=19
A fair bit of blame can be directed towards our own leaders and the system of business putting profits before good sense
Not in this case, it's pure aggressive imperialism from Putin, blaming the west for what's he's doing is pure distraction. He's trying to recreate the Russian empire by force. He'd have been much more successful if he had followed the China's lead and rebuilt Russia's influence through trade and aid. That's not the Russian way. Trouble is the people of Russia really don't understand democracy, they've never really experienced it in the modern sense, serfs until WWI, tyrannical communism until 89, a few years of drunken chaos from Yeltsin and then back to good old dictatorship under Putin. Their only recent memory of democracy was the chaos under Yeltsin, Putin got in before things could start to stabilise and returned to the old ways.
The way some of the vox pops from people in Russia sound regarding former soviet block countries is appalling, it would be like some one from the UK calling Kenyans or Indians traitors for wanting their countries back and advocating we send in the troops to retake those countries. This is the mindset of many in Russia.
UK calling Kenyans or Indians traitors for wanting their countries back and advocating we send in the troops to retake those countries.
To be fair though, that's exactly what we were doing back in the day... Mau Mau in the 60's, Malaya in the 50's etc
We did and it was vile, and at the time we were still the colonial power (which didn't excuse anything). Putin is trying to re-occupy a seperate sovereign country which would be more analogous to what we did in Africa to create our empire. You won't find many people on the streets of the UK advocating we take back ****stan by force or openly attack Zimbabwe, or even lament the fact we no longer have an empire. You will find plenty of people on the streets of Russia who blame Gorbachev for the breakup of the Soviet Union and would like to see it reinstated.
Not in this case
I was really referring to how our own glorious leaders are more than happy to deal with the worst of dictatorships if theres something in it for them, or their party.
We deal with China, which oppresses its own and other people. We were dealing with Russia, because they have fuel/oil/gas/produce etc
Cheaper to destroy our own steel industry, or shipbuilding if they can get a better deal elsewhere, without caring if the country is an oppressive one.
Qatar. Being gay, or female or trying to speak out is punishable with everything from a jail sentence, flogging or even death, but we're giving them the chance to host the world cup. Or wanting their oil and gas. So its everything the West holds dear is chucked out the window. Profits before principles
What do you all make of the constant noise about the nuclear plant? I just don't get it at all.
Russia occupies and controls the area, the ukrainians are on the other side of the river.
If there is bombing around the plant, why are ukraine saying the russians are shelling it?
Absolutely bizarre all round tbh.
Is this just a media offensive or is there actually something happening?
If there is something happening the only thing I can reasonably conclude is that it's Ukraine trying to attack russian supplies in the area? Just makes zero sense that the Russians would shell territory they occupy and actively use to store items.
I gather the Russians are using it as a base for troops and resources, plus have been shooting out from it. So they can be aggressive from there - safe in the knowledge Ukrainian forces won't shoot back. And we've seen how liable to misfiring the Russian missiles are.
They are also basically holding the staff as hostage to keep running the place.
There is no plan to maintain or inspect the plant.
And do we trust the Russians to look after the largest nuclear facility in Europe?
One more thought for the day, is that we are often told that you need at least a 3:1 attackers v defenders ratio to be looking at success.
Given 25k Russians apparently in the Kherson area, we are looking at a requirement of 75k soldiers for a successful operation?
matt_outandabout
Full Member
I gather the Russians are using it as a base for troops and resources, plus have been shooting out from it. So they can be aggressive from there – safe in the knowledge Ukrainian forces won’t shoot back. And we’ve seen how liable to misfiring the Russian missiles are.They are also basically holding the staff as hostage to keep running the place.
There is no plan to maintain or inspect the plant.
And do we trust the Russians to look after the largest nuclear facility in Europe?
Whether we trust them or not is irrelevant, they occupy and control it. Just sounds like media noise to me more than any real danger tbh. Which I guess works, if the majority reading the stories aren't looking at an occupation map.
is that we are often told that you need at least a 3:1 attackers v defenders ratio to be looking at success.
Its a rough rule and not a fixed one and is dependant on multiple factors. An obvious counter is "Whatever happens, we have got, the Maxim, and they have not" which allowed colonial armies to take on vastly superior forces and walk away with barely a scratch on multiple occasions. Didnt always work but shows how technology can completely distort ratios.
Part of what is happening in the Ukraine is the old soviet belief in this overwhelming numbers vs the USA/Nato approach of "they have overwhelming numbers we need some good weapons to counter it".
It also depends on how they chose to attack head on or just by striking targets of opportunity and damaging the supply lines until the front collapses.
I wonder if we are looking at some nasty 21st century version of the trench warfare we saw in WW1 over the coming winter?
dissonance
Full Member
until the front collapses.
Tbh, does seem to be the logical outcome Ukraine is looking at. Basically expecting either logistical or moral collapse. Seems a bit hopeful.
I did look yesterday for a relevant number, that being the current number in Ukraine's armed forces, most of the time I only see pre general mobilization numbers. I've seen claims that Ukraine has larger numbers (of people, not equipment) in the field now, but nothing convincing.
Yeah, was just googling that tbh, there's defo a straight equation to me made, if you can get reliable numbers on both sides, which is difficult.
I wonder if we are looking at some nasty 21st century version of the trench warfare we saw in WW1 over the coming winter?
Do trenches even work when there's aircraft/drones about? Or very accurately targetted ordinance??
Poopscoop
Full Member
I wonder if we are looking at some nasty 21st century version of the trench warfare we saw in WW1 over the coming winter?
It's been trench warfare for months.
markgraylish
Do trenches even work when there’s aircraft/drones about? Or very accurately targetted ordinance??
Probably more required with drones about.
I’ve seen claims that Ukraine has larger numbers in the field now, but nothing convincing.
The Ukrainians also have the advantage that, its reported, the Russians lost a lot of good troops including those seconded from training units early on so when it comes to training replacements they arent in a good position. Whereas the Ukrainians recruits get to visit the UK and other locations and get trained by handpicked professionals from multiple militaries many with recent combat experience.
colonial armies to take on vastly superior forces and walk away with barely a scratch on multiple occasions
Unless logistics (commissariat) delay unloading and opening the ammunition boxes!
Unless logistics (commissariat) delay unloading and opening the ammunition boxes!
Hence the didnt always work. There were other occasions when they were outthought and put into a situation where the weapons couldnt be deployed effectively.
I’ve seen claims that Ukraine has larger numbers in the field now, but nothing convincing.
Obviously Ukrainian sources are, rightfully, keeping schtum but here have been some interesting posts from Russian telegram channels suggesting that most of the Ukrainian units that have been 'holding the line' for the past few months have been replaced recently with fresh, better trained units armed with much more NATO kit and this is a major factor in why the Ukrainians are on the offensive now.
It's not unreasonable to think that these are the first of overseas-trained units coming back, if it is they're already proving their worth. It will also allow Ukraine to cycle the other units back rest and reequip them, which will do wonders for their effectiveness down the line.
Also interesting to see that the UA Bayraktar drones seem to be back in action, they were basically grounded as Russia deployed more effective countermeasures. If Ukraine is confident to deploy them again it suggests that HIMARS and HARM missile strikes have seriously degraded Russia air defence, those drones were the bane of the Russian forces in the battle for Kyiv and Ukraine now has a lot more of them than they did at the start, if they're back in action that's one more pressure point.
Apparently [s]Russian[/s] Ukrainian rockets turn 180* on impact.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1565667101058027521?s=20&t=Vvd0_GwwRdXH0jBM9_bDFA
Looks like IAEA team are taking no sh*t though - staying at the plant for a few days.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/01/iaea-team-to-go-ahead-with-zaporizhzhia-visit-despite-shelling
Some shifts starting to filter though on the maps, gives a sense of the scale of movement, be very interesting how this develops, finger crossed.
You'd guess the other factor on the numbers game, is how partisan warfare develops into the equation as time develops.
Finance ministers from the UK, US, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada have agreed a plan to put a ceiling on Russian oil prices. The proposal would mean importers seeking shipping services and insurance cover from companies based in G7 and EU countries would need to adhere to a price cap to transport Russian oil.The cap is expected to be introduced at the same time as planned EU embargoes on Russian oil kick in – on 5 December for crude and 5 February for refined products, such as diesel. The level of the cap is still being discussed.
The EU has proposed something similar for Russian gas. Russia will refuse to sell oil to countries capping its prices
It seems sensible to cap prices in his biggest market for gas, it'll slow rebuilding his military after the war has ended with a view to removing the threat to former soviet satellite countries for longer
Russia will just sell to India etc… who will the onward sell. Seems mostly pointless. Need some sort of trace on origin like blood diamonds
Its not quite as easy as swapping customers, they actually have to get the oil and gas there first and geography is not kind on that one.
Russia will just sell to India etc…
I dont think they'll be replicating their pipelines heading to Europe across to India in the next couple of years.
Even with shipping theres a lot of problems to deal with, not least the dramatically increased shipping time, which im sure theyll deal with, but to match the capacity that went into Europe isnt a quick fix.
but to match the capacity that went into Europe isnt a quick fix
It won't be an easy fix either because other countries will knock Russia's prices down knowing that they're desperate to sell. It only needs the G7 and the EU to announce a cap and you might as well make it worldwide.
China knocked the gas price down below that paid by the EU on the Power of Siberia gas pipeline in 2019. The two signed a 30-year contract at the start of this war on another proposed gas pipeline, it'll be interesting to see what happens there
In May, Russia was supplying oil priced 32% lower than Brent Crude according to Russian figures. Is the real discount greater?
Historically, Russia sold energy at below cost after WW2 to rebuild their coffers
I was just googling about Oil Shipping, as I’m presuming an existing fleet that’s just sitting about doesn’t exist?
Which got me thinking about who has the most leverage over the existing fleets.
https://marine-digital.com/article_10largestoiltankercompanies#popup:popupcii
Not sure about the end point owners for these?
And for LNG
https://marine-digital.com/article_10biggest_lng_shipping_companies
Which at least has two options
Reading around, the proposed connection between the Yamal peninsula (where Europe gets much of its gas) and China isnt scheduled to be operational until 2030.
Assuming this is accurate, which it could easily not be.
Interesting thread on Russian propaganda - "Denatzification" just didn't catch on.
https://twitter.com/MaxAlyukov/status/1565626550007087104
Another depressing thread about how badly Russia treats its military.
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1565080952203841538
Coming back to the oil price cap, I read that buyers won't be able to insure oil transport if it's priced above the price cap with G7 based insurance companies. Which is probably most of them, so it will have an effect globally.
In the latest move toward global discontent there has been a riot in Prague, down with energy prices, the EU and NATO. It was organised by the far-right, the Communist Party and other fringe groups but managed to pull a crowd of 70,000
In August 1968 the rest of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries invaded Czechoslovakia to prevent decentralisation and democracy; some groups never learn
It was organised by
the far-right, the Communist Party and other fringe groupsapologists for and paid agents of Putin.
FTFY. Some of those people will just be "useful idiots" who don't realize they are just being manipulated by Russia, some of them will be getting funding and instructions from Moscow. Ironic how right-wing and left-wing groups find a unifying cause in the undermining of democracy.
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has again lost its main operational power lines through fighting although it's supplying power to the grid through a reserve feed with only one of six reactors active. That reactor will also produce power for cooling and controls at the site
In the latest move toward global discontent...
...find a unifying cause in the undermining of democracy.
Putin's last roll of the dice? Let's hope so
One of the hardest to fully measure impacts of the sanctions on Russia has been their effect on all the unofficial proxies in the West now its much harder to funnel clandestine funds to them.
Can't help but think that one of the reasons the Biden administration seems to have somewhat got its groove back since February is that being a divisive online s**t-stirrer isn't as well renumerated as it used to be.
