They absolutely do think this. The only people who don’t are a few diehard lefties and hand-wringing middle class liberals.
Ah good, I feel like we can start arguing again.
That is palpably not true as an awful lot of people I know are neither of those things. What they tend to be is reasonably intelligent and aware.
The problem is that the population at large is infinitely more gullible than anyone realised.
I do agree that the next GE may be surprisingly early to some. There is going to be a sweet spot for the Tories when we are moving out of the worst of the pandemic (maybe even slightly ahead of the rest of europe as a whole) and the onset of the realisation that the proper long-term recovery is being hobbled by Brexit and the rest of Europe is vanishing into the distance down the track. Leaving 'our' shitty Allegro conking out at the side of the track.
We have, it seems, a childish electorate. It might be time for Labour to realise that. If your average pillock in the street looks at PMQs and thinks "that's it, that is how politics is" then it is time to break out the rattles and duplo blocks for them.
Boris is going to be absolutely itching to have an election while he's basking in the reflected glory of the one thing (admittedly a pretty important one) that him and his hopeless cabinet have managed not to * up since they came to power.
There will indeed be a sweet spot as lockdown lifts and they haven't yet *ed up the recovery as the reality of Brexit hits the real economy.
Is it right though that the labour party would have to be complicit in granting an election, because of the fixed term parliament act? Everyone told Grandad not to grant one last time, but he's an idiot so he did. We all know how that went. What would labour do this time around?
The problem is that the population at large is infinitely more gullible than anyone realised.
Gullibility is a function of being disengaged and disinterested. If you want that to improve you need to do all the things I've been going on about for ages.
and the onset of the realisation that the proper long-term recovery is being hobbled by Brexit and the rest of Europe is vanishing into the distance down the track
Off the back of brexit govt stimulus was always going to be neeeded to paper over the cracks, and covid massively amplifies that. If there is to be an early election the justification will be that Boris needs a fresh mandate to go on a spending binge the likes of which we've not seen since WW2. It won't be Starmer playing the Clement Atlee role, it will be Johnson. The PR machine is already setting him up for it.
Boris is going to be absolutely itching to have an election
There's no need for the Conservatives to call an early election. They currently feel that they are ahead of Labour, twice... they have two candidates to stand to be PM at the next election... they think they are both winning hands... that both can beat a fractured and out of the practice of government Labour party... and can play either in good time. Look how much UK gov money has been thrown at Sunak's campaign messaging and adverts (in all but name... they claim to be important government communications). They can take their time... they are as good as assuming they have nine free years to leach of us and transform the UK... why risk reducing that to 6 or 7? They'll take all five years that the last election gave them... and look forward to another five following on from that, like night follows day.
Is it right though that the labour party would have to be complicit in granting an election
Right now it is, but the tories are committed to repealing the fixed term parliament act. If they want an early election, you can bet it'll be in the queen's speech in October. Even if they don't though, it's not a good look for any oppositon to be running away from an election, they're almost obliged to accept the challenge, just as Corbyn was rail-roaded into it by the SNP and libdems.
Is it right though that the labour party would have to be complicit in granting an election, because of the fixed term parliament act?
Nope. People get confused about the fixed term act and think it actually means something. Although it has the 2/3 requirement to pass there is nothing preventing parliament passing a one off act or just revoking the fixed term parliament with the normal majority vote.
As such its pointless waffle the tories created to keep the libdems happy and quiet.
Everyone told Grandad not to grant one last time, but he’s an idiot so he did
Then those people were, to put it politely, absolute morons.
He didnt have a choice.
As above it just needed a majority for it and so once the Libdems and SNP said they were going to support it Labour couldnt have prevented it.
If they had abstained or opposed it would have been double down time on the bullshit about undermining democracy and so on.
Increasing taxes isn't automatically austerity, that's absolute horseshit. Sorry to be so blunt but I doubt anyone can actually believe it's true. And saying that someone's in favour of a particular tax increase is asking for austerity is the exact same. It's either unfathomably wrong or it's dishonest, there's no other option.
vazaha
Free MemberThe next General Election will be in 2024.
How many of today’s considerations do you think will still be in play?
Well, ya know, that's kind of the problem. The last year's considerations absolutely should still be in play. A government that killed tens of thousands of people while handing huge contracts to their mates so they could do **** all with it and make the crisis worse, that's not single news cycle stuff. Hancock was like a mugger walking out of court laughing about how he made the victim cry.
The same with brexit. Even now we're hearing that it turned out fine because there aren't queues of trucks- when that's in large part because there's no point putting some stuff on the trucks. But it's already passing into "old news" even though the effects on people's lives and the economy will be absolutely fresh in 2024.
It's not exactly healthy to think about these things in terms of political opportunity, but that's what they come down to. This government has been allowed to just laugh it off. When covid and brexit is mentioned in the next general election it's going to be as much from the tories patting themselves on the back about it. And yes Starmer's leadership is a huge part of that sadly.
I actually expected Starmer to be good at this stuff- the whole prosecutor thing, holding people to account, stackling Johnston's biffle boffle with hard facts and keeping nailing home the horrendous truths of the last year. There were early signs of it.
There were early signs of it.
To be honest, its difficult to see how anyone could have any more impact on the present government. Johnson knew he was getting taken to the cleaners at PMQ's every week so he simply started ignoring everything Starmer said and just waffling instead. He doesn't even offer any pretence that he's actually answering questions
At the same time the Tory's made sure that the media had no access to either the PM or the cabinet. They don't do media interviews, they don't do anything. They're completely invisible. Boris is still essentially hidden in a fridge. They only appear, very rarely, at carefully stage-managed press conferences, flanked by non-political medical experts, where they can't really be questioned in any meaningful way.
I think we need to acknowledge that the pandemic has allowed the government to re-write the whole relationship between the executive and the people, via the media. They seemed to have used North Korea as a model.
Unfortunately 23rd June 2016 gave the Tories a cast-iron marker of just how stupid the general population is.
They've been leveraging it ever since.
To be honest, its difficult to see how anyone could have any more impact on the present government.
I expect you'll be saying that when Johnson extends his majority. Either that or 'it's all Corbyn's fault'. FFS man just admit Starmer's been shit and is being outclassed by a mop haired alcoholic clown.
As has been pointed out infinitely to you, as it stands there isn't going to be an election for 4 years.
So if you wanted to use the footballing analogies that I know you love, we're not even half way through the first half. Yet you've got the next election as lost with an increased Tory majority
outclassed
Quite the opposite, in fact.
But it is what is successful nowadays with the 'great' british public, and that is a damning indictment of 'us' as a populace.
Johnson as PM is a living insult to anyone who takes even a little bit of pride in their intellect or has a shred of self respect.
Four years from now is 2025. The last legal date for the next election is December '24, and there's not a cat's chance in hell they'll leave it that long. I'll be spring '23 most likely, that's two years away. It could easily be next year if we come out of the pandemic and they decide a reset is the best policy. Johnson will go as soon as he thinks he can because firstly he's a gambler, and secondly he's not going to hang around whilst Sunak PR machine does it's work.
Yeah, 3 years. Enjoy getting such a huge one over on Binners with your pedantry. See you out campaigning for Labour in 2024? That's when the election will be... there is no reason whatsoever for the government to go do the polls... they haven't even decided who'll lead that campaign yet, and are pilling government money into the PR campaigns of both their hopefuls. Where as Labour will stick with their candidate, till after at least one general election loss... hopefully not two this time.
Enjoy getting such a huge one over on Binners with your pedantry.
It's 3 years max. Very likely closer to two. Does nearly 50% less time pass your pedantry test?
See you out campaigning for Labour in 2024?
No chance, I won't even be voting for them unless Starmer has a lobotomy and suddenly remembers which party he leads.
Thought not. Wouldn't put it past you to vote for Johnson/Sunak to teach people a lesson, or something.
Very likely closer to two.
Why? What on earth would Johnson gain from another election cycle any earlier than he has to? Even money on Sunak being handed the baton anyway... May 2024... he'll be sold as both a new broom, and having all the experience of being at the heart of government though "interesting" times... cake and eat... and a hell of a lot of people will buy it... again... while people who claim to be "of the left" will sit on their hands because the alternative isn't led by someone left wing in their eyes.
I'll vote for whoever supports real change rather than fannying around the edges with the same outdated failed solutions. Nothing will change as long as people keep voting for the same things.
Nothing will change, because we'll keep electing Conservative governments promising change. Partly because many people will sit out the FPTP mess waiting for something that just isn't coming.
Sorry about that... I'm ranting at myself there, not you Dazh... I didn't vote Labour 'til Corbyn moved their policy base leftwards in the 2017 manifesto... and in hindsight, not voting Labour under Blair, Brown and Miliband was self obsessed nonsense. I was wrong. In General Elections, in England, in most seats, under our system, you have two choices... ignoring that because the alternative to the Conservatives is led by someone who isn't close enough to you own wishes and politics is exactly the selfish behaviour I indulged in for most of my life. Voting based on "policies" and the best path forward... maybe one day we'll have a voting system where that makes sense... but for now we could very well be facing permanent Tory rule for the rest of our lives... which is great if you like moaning. The Greens, or someone else, having policies closer to mine is irrelevant, when 3% of people can vote that way, and get one MP to represent them. If the left choose not to support Labour in seats where it is very much Conservative versus Labour... they going to have to enjoy moaning. A lot.
In General Elections, in England, in most seats, under our system, you have two choices
If Starmer continues on his current path, the two choices will be Coke or Pepsi. He's managing to make the Blair government look radical. And before anyone starts, I voted Labour in '97.
WAR CRIMINAL!!!!
Sorry about that… I’m ranting at myself there, not you Dazh
Rant away, this is the place for it! 🙂
Seriously though, the more and more I look at politics the more I think it's pretty irrelevant. It's becoming ever more clear to me that change can't be achieved through the political system, because it's been corrupted to such an extent by private interests that it offers nothing to normal people beyond virtue signalling and theatre. It's a game, where you pick which side to support and win bragging rights over the opposition, and a career opportunity for people with psychopathic or narcissistic tendencies. Best just to look at it for what it is, which is the sort of mild diversion provided by a soap opera.
I agree. I just wish we didn’t have to give a bunch of Tory ****s a go for so long. By the time people vote for the changes they need, it’ll be too late anyway.
All good stuff. All before we knew the terms of Brexit, and the scale and cost of the pandemic though. Both need addressing. We are not where we were a year ago.
See you out campaigning for Labour in 2024?
I doubt many people will be out campaigning for Labour at this rate.
All good stuff. All before we knew the terms of Brexit, and the scale and cost of the pandemic though. Both need addressing. We are not where we were a year ago.
Ok so why not say that? Why not tell people that he hasn't actually abandoned all his supposed principles he's just being pragmatic?
Seriously though, the more and more I look at politics the more I think it’s pretty irrelevant.
This, sadly.
So… the corporation tax increase “now” thing was a trap for Labour to walk into… who’d have thunk it?!? Not happening for two years, and tapered for smaller companies (well companies with lower profits anyway). Could have been written by Dodds.
Thought provoking piece (not sure I totally buy it) about how Shithead's 80 seat majority means he can tolerate more dissenting voices, which in turn means the tories can seem to represent disparate groups. Especially if they can filter which messages get to which people.
So… the corporation tax increase “now” thing was a trap for Labour to walk into
And walk into it they did. While labour were worrying about what their stance should be on corporation tax, the tories were strategically positioning themselves as defenders of working people while labour were defending the interests of business. The end result being former labour voters in the 'red wall' (f***** hell I hate that phrase!) thinking the tories are on their side while labour only care about the city-based elite. It's brexit culture war politics without brexit.
While labour were worrying about what their stance should be on corporation tax
“Labour” weren’t worrying about it, they just laid it out straight, while “helpful” left wingers flooded their social media replies with “raise corporation tax now, stop pandering to business”. Okay, some Labour MPs joined in, the likes of Ian Lavery… but then they only have one aim… smash the party and rebuild and purify it.
while “helpful” left wingers flooded their social media replies
Left wingers voiced alarm at labour being to the right of the tories on tax and public spending. That's exactly how it's turned out. The next election is going to be all about the post covid and post-brexit recovery. Labour will now go into that looking like the party who are more interested in supporting profits to shareholders than supporting people. Well played Keir.
Left wingers walked into the trap like eager puppies. Raising corporation tax when the UK is in its current position was just dumb economics… there is no way Starmer and Dodds could support such a move and stay credible… Conservatives used the media to dangle a “Starmer wants to help business, not workers” carrot in front of the hords, and plenty of them obliged. So predictable and depressing.
“Labour” weren’t worrying about it, they just laid it out straight,
They were against it. Then they were for it. As Dodds said, it's all perfectly clear.
They were against it now. They were for it later in the parliamentary term. Which is what is happening. Still… a nice shitty stick to beat Starmer with.
Starmer is dull. He won’t win the next election. But if he had the appeal needed to win over the voters, he’d still face the obvious problem… too many people on the left want “their” leader, not someone looking to lead for the whole country, and win enough seats to be able to do so. It’s blinding obvious to me, because that was me. Mea culpa.
I dunno. Feels like a snapshot of around now shows that if you’re personally on the right (if we want to distill it down to a single line) then the Tories will do for you, no matter where on the right you are. Whether you’re a geezer wot geezes, dislike immigrants, hate benefit scroungers, want Brexit dun, or work in a hedge fund, the Tories seem to be a big enough umbrella under which you’ll all stand.
But if you’re on the left, the Labour Party just seems to be someone with a tiny umbrella constantly lurching around trying to shelter everyone; and the minute someone feels a drop of rain, they’re screaming about the direction that the fellow with the umbrella ran. Because there’s nobody the left hate more than the left (and this goes both directions). The days of the Labour Party being a “broad church” seem long gone. A split would probably be the best thing but under FPTP, we’d be condemned to Tory rule for ever.
Ian Lavery had the line for you… hold on… let me look it up and get it correct…
Left wingers walked into the trap like eager puppies.
Yawn. They did nothing more than stand up for their long held principles and state the blindingly obvious that the job of the labour party is to protect workers, and not shareholders. The outcome of Starmer and Dodds' failure to do the same, compounded by their incompetent comms which failed to clearly express their position, is that voters will now think labour are only interested in the corporate elite rather than normal people, and this further entrenches the tory narrative of Boris 'man of the people' vs Starmer the metropolitan establishment elitist.
😂
the labour party is to protect workers, and not shareholders
It is to govern for all us, whether we live on pensions, wages, benefits… or like many people a combination of all three.
The “business vs the workers” line is exactly what the Tories want people arguing about… Labour shouldn’t be choosing, they should be backing both.
Even when the majoirty of workers are share holders through their pension schemes, and many labour voters are share holders.
Workers and share holders have more in common than you seem to understand, Dazh, and that's why a punish business left wing stand point is doomed to failure.
A modern socialist/left wing programme should have the objective of making sure workers take a fair share of the wealth they produce, not destroy employers' ability to create wealth.
It is to govern for all us
No, it's not. You can't govern for everyone, because it's an obvious fact that there are fundamental conflicts of interest within society. You can't govern for everyone unless you eliminate inequality and class. Last time I looked both of those were still very much present in the UK. I like your utopian view though, and to think people call me an idealist!
Ian Lavery is like a cartoon character created by the Daily Mail. He’s also as thick as mince.
If you’re quoting that idiot, you need to take a long, hard look at yourself. The bloke is, and always has been an absolute whopper.
You would think that like some others on ‘the left’ he might reflect a bit on his part in delivering labours worst election result since 1935 and STFU! Clearly, like David Cameron yesterday, self-awareness isn’t his strong point.
Interesting narrative from Rafael Behr in the Guardian today about a lot of Tory MPs being very disgruntled about the ‘socialists’ that they’ve ended up with as PM and chancellor.
His rabid right wing backbenchers are not happy with Johnson about increases in corporation tax etc. It’s going to be interesting to see how that develops
the job of the labour party is to protect workers, and not shareholders.
Actually let me correct myself. That *used* to be the job of the labour party, today it's role is to do nothing more than deliver ambitious career politicians into government and provide bragging rights to it's supporters. That's it. Totally pointless!
If you’re quoting that idiot, you need to take a long, hard look at yourself.
Who? I've never quoted Lavery ever, for no other reason than he's like the ghost of my dad. His voice is the same, his accent is the same, and his body language and mannerisms are exactly the same. He even bloody looks like him. It's very unnerving. The first time I pointed it out to Mrs Daz she thought it was hilarious.
Fact is you do govern for everybody once in power, the objective being to govern for the good of society as a whole. That means managing the conflict of interests and implementing policies that produce wealth to be shared and distributed as needs be. And that within the framework of an international community of countries and trading blocks that means your scope for tinkering is limited because the means of production will **** off elsewhere if they don't like your rules.
If you govern for one side or the other you will end up failing both: business needs healthy, well educated motivated workers and workers need employment.
