Just looking at those numbers above you could read that 6% has gone from LDM and Green to mostly tory.
So what has happened since the last poll to move 3% of Green votes to mostly Tory?
Not likely to happen is it, which shows how flawed this type of polling is. You would need to poll a lot of people and keep polling the same people to actually see what movement there is.
Given the recent track record of polling, generally, it’s difficult to see why they still bother with it at all, other than as a very rough, sticking your finger in the air type of thing.
I’d certainly not put on any money on anything they ‘predict’.
Let’s be honest, nobody has really got a bloody clue what’s going to happen next week, other than Nichola Sturgeon being quite happy and Andy Burnham and Sadiq Khan still being Mayors of Manchester and London respectively.everything else is anybodies guess
binners
Full MemberGiven the recent track record of polling, generally, it’s difficult to see why they still bother with it at all, other than as a very rough, sticking your finger in the air type of thing.
I’d certainly not put on any money on anything they ‘predict’.
And yet binners you are so quick to draw everyone's attention to polls which you feel show how popular Starmer is
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/sir-kier-starmer/page/86/#post-11721339
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/sir-kier-starmer/page/76/#post-11511716
https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/sir-kier-starmer/page/76/#post-11510742
Plus of course regular your rant on here which includes the comment : "when grandad finally departed Labour were 26 points behind in the polls". The fact that the comment in no way reflects actual electoral reality doesn't seem to bother you, "all hail opinion polls" appears to be your philosophy.
So when did this sudden mistrust of opinion polls suddenly come about binners?
Sorry the links don't appear to have worked! Still I'm sure I don't have to push the point and will leave it at that.
Yes, polls are good if they show what you want them to show.
Is Lisa Nandy trying to sabotage her chances of succeeding Starmer when he loses the next election? Why make a big thing about nurses pay when your policy/opinion is no different to the tories? Utterly f***** useless.
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1388781437260861440?s=20
Ffs
I think blinkeredness affects those on all sides; Many Corbyn supporters still think he was the best person to lead the nation, and it's evident the Starmer supporters on here at least, simply cannot understand that Starmer will not, and cannot offer anything other than what his neoliberal principles dictate; ie, pretty much the status quo with nothing much changing. As for cries of 'get into power first'; that some people still believe Starmer would somehow radically become this Socialist Superstar, and revolutionise British society, shows how deluded people are when they nail their colours to a particular mast. Starmer will only do what the ruling elites allow him to. Having Starmer as PM would hardly be any different to having Boris in charge, let's face it. So I have to wonder if those backing Starmer, actually genuinely want to see change; my guess is that they are pretty comfortable with the status quo, and aren't really bothered about much beyond their own self interest. Certainly, the disparaging remarks about 'activists' showed just how little some people actually know about political activism, and what it really is. Activism is a growing and sadly necessary part of our society; from food banks and vaccine volunteers, to legal workers forming networks to challenge and prevent the vicious racist policies of Priti Patel's office. It's challenging big business when it wants to destroy the environment for profit. It's about tuning up in numbers, to prevent racist thugs from terrorising minority groups and communities. And maybe it's just about saving an allotment from corporate development. And to me, it would be about standing up to racist idiots in a pub, and getting them removed, and making that pub a place where everyone would be welcome, rather than just shouting abuse at them and flouncing out. Because a lack of effective action, changes nothing. And we're back to Starmer again...
Why make a big thing about nurses pay when your policy/opinion is no different to the tories?
But it is different. Even that clip reminds us of that. But Labour policy isn’t “we back the unions’ negotiating position”, and that is for a good and very obvious reason. If the government are given a “Labour just do what the unions say, because they are their paymasters” attack line, then they will wriggle out of accusations of acting in the interests of their donors. This has played out in exactly this way in the past. Marr’s questioning is an attempt to set that trap (a trap he tries to deploy at nearly every opportunity, so all Labour interviewees should be ready for it). While you and I fully back unionisation, and collective power of the work force, for a huge chunk of the electorate the unions are not trusted, and nor is any politician who will unequivocally support their positions (thanks Len, we should have been able to bury this nonsense decades ago, but hey).
But it is different.
No it's not. A 2% pay rise is no different to a 1% pay rise when that extra 1% is worth about a fiver a week. Unless you think people are idiots, and clearly LIsa Nandy does. And then she compounds that by saying not all nurses want a pay rise. And this is someone who seriously thought she was Prime Ministerial material?
for a huge chunk of the electorate the unions are not trusted
The Royal College of Nursing is unversally respected. Drawing comparisons between them and McClusky is ridiculous.
Their demand for 12% is not ‘universally’ popular, to put it mildly (but I support it), where as 1% is hated by nearly all. There is a difficult line to walk here, pushing for a minimum increase to try and get a government u-turn, while also saying that more is required, so that a u-turn isn’t the end of the matter and more can me pushed for, all without jumping straight to supporting the union’s 12%. Reminding people that pay is not the only issue is important as well.
where as 1% is hated by nearly all
So why doesn't Nandy (and other labour frontbenchers) say 6, or 8% if they don't want to agree with union leaders? Seems to me they want to be seen as being on the side of workers, but don't want to actually help them in any material way other than offering meaningless platitudes. All it says is 'vote for us, but don't worry we won't change anything'. If she's not prepared to actually help nurses then she should keep her mouth shut and stop using them as a campaigning tool.
Because they support the arm length function of the NHS Pay Review Body, and are attempting to show themselves as a potential government who would work with them to set NHS pay? I dunno. I do know that your attempts to paint “not enough” as “none”, and “not different enough” as “no difference” are very irritating… which I presume is your intention.
Kelvin labour lost the support of working class voters because those voters realised that while claiming to be on their side, the labour party had done very little to help them. Now Nandy is doing the exact same thing. 'I'm on your side, but I don't think you should get a pay rise of more than £10 a week'. She's an idiot, plain and simple, and if this is the best labour can do, they might as well pack up now.
Anyone with their own Hartlepool predictions?
For me it's too close to call and lots of conflicting reports and vibes.
Pushed - I'd say Tory. Depends on what stuff happens this week in the press.
Could easily flip.
the labour party had done very little to help them
Yes, I also keep hearing that while we have ongoing Conservative governments the Labour Party have delivered very little for people. In fact, blaming Labour for the state of the country under the last three Tory PMs seems to be a default response, something that is unfair on the last three Labour leaders in my opinion, but that’s where we are. The Tories mess things up and corruptly act in the interests of their donors, and much of the working class blame Miliband, or Corbyn, or Starmer for that… or say “Labour would be just as corrupt and useless”. The worse the actions of the Conservatives in government, the more the public seem willing for Labour to share the blame for that.
Anyone with their own Hartlepool predictions?
Only the same as you. Conflicting reporting from different areas. I suspect a Tory surge that either takes the seat, or comes close to it. Labour vote share might also increase slightly, but that wouldn’t mean that is necessarily enough to keep the seat. Both parties increasing their share, but the Tories increasing theirs by more… that’s my prediction. Whether that ultimately ends up in the seat flippin? I wouldn’t risk a bet either way.
Anyone with their own Hartlepool predictions?
Just a guess, but I think the last minute panic and focus on it means it's likely to go Tory.
I think it'll actually be a fairly solid Tory gain, but I'm hopeful that nationally the picture will be different and limited in damage.
Also think turnout will be low nationally, so make sure you encourage everyone you know to get out, as every vote will count more so than in a GE.
My guess is that Labour won't do as well in Hartlepool on May 6th as it did in the 2017 general election when, despite being one of the highest leave-voting constituencies in the UK, more than half the voters voted for a middle-class party of guardian-reading professionals who frankly despise them.
My other guess is that the Tories will be blamed for that.
In fact Kelvin has already suggested that you can't blame the Labour Party two posts up ^^
Survation showing a predicted 17pt lead in Hartlepool.
Even I'm having hard time with that lead.
Even Sir Starmer said people aren't interested in the details of wall-paper gate. No shit.
My guess is that Labour won’t do as well in Hartlepool on May 6th as it did in the 2017 general election
That is very likely.
people aren’t interested in the details of wall-paper gate
Best not bring up that the PM is on the take, rather than serving the country then, huh?
Survation showing a predicted 17pt lead in Hartlepool.
If you read Survations analysis of the data
Its still all about brexit (BXP are only reason it didn't fall in 3019)
https://www.survation.com/new-phone-poll-places-conservatives-on-course-for-hartlepool-win/
That Survation poll findings are appalling.
The general view has been that the Labour vote in Hartlepool will increase compared to 2019 but the Tories will win the seat due to the 2019 BP vote going to them.
The Survation poll however puts the Labour Party on 33% which is less than Labour received in 2019 when it got 38%.
That is actually worse than the Labour Hartlepool vote of 2015 when Ed Miliband was leader. In 2015 the combined Tory-Ukip vote would have given a 14% lead over Labour.
If Survation is correct, and obviously it is a very big if, then Labour really is going backwards.
Clearly some very serious questions need to be asked but equally some very serious answers need to be provided.
In 2017 the UKIP vote in Hartlepool completely collapsed to less than half of what it had been in 2015, it all appeared to have gone to Labour whose total vote grew massively to 52%.
What has gone wrong this time? Especially as this time, like 2017 but unlike 2019, Labour has accepted the EU referendum result.
Also it should be remembered why David Cameron agreed to an EU referendum. It was simply for two reasons. Firstly he was certain that Remain would win, and secondly because he believed that it would once and for all neutralise Ukip, which along with the Referendum Party before had caused serious electoral damage to the Tories.
If Ukip was causing Labour more electoral damage than it was to the Tories David Cameron would of course have never called a referendum on EU membership.
Obviously something has gone wrong. Although I personally believe that the Labour Party completely lacks the capability to understand what it is.
Anyone with their own Hartlepool predictions?
As with most things in life, if you're after predictions, look what odds the bookies are giving.
I shoved a tenner on the Tories winning Hartlepool a few weeks ago. The odds I got were 1.9/1. The labour odds were about the the same, so the bookies thought it was an even shot
Just had a look now and the odds are
Tory's 1/4
Labour 5/2
So the bookies can only see one result and they're rarely wrong
Obviously something has gone wrong. Although I personally believe that the Labour Party completely lacks the capability to understand what it is.
Does anybody? I bet even the Tory's can't fathom how they're getting away with all this. The Vaccine rollout must account for a lot of it, but still...
I really just don't understand this country any more. Its absolute madness. Turkeys not just voting for Christmas, but to have 12 Christmases a year, one a month
Well, my postal votes are in. Labour for mayor and councillor. No doubt I’m only delaying the inevitable NIP revolution that will come about when they help turn Hartlepool blue… but I’ll just have to live with that on my conscience.
VOTE LABOUR
Surprised nobody mentioned KS on the Today program at 8:15 this morning.
He came across really well, I thought. A contrast with Corbyn and Boris who won't even go on.
I don't think you can draw many conclusions from Hartlepool. All that proves is if you call people elderly idiots they don't vote for you next time which won't be a surprise.
I was surprised they let him roll out a pre-prepared "five things" election pitch without interruption. Was that because of the elections, or as balance ready for letting Liz Truss speak to the nation without correction or fact checking unfiltered?
Yep, my postal votes done too. Labour for local council, which is one of the ones (Bury North) they reckon could go blue, and for Mayor, there can be only one, really...
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He came across really well, I thought. A contrast with Corbyn and Boris who won’t even go on.
I thought the same. Got the balance right, I thought. Came across very well. Are people listening? Doesn't look like it
I bet even the Tory’s can’t fathom how they’re getting away with all this.
If you believe the Survation polling, it's still all about Brexit really. BORIS GOT BREXIT DONE and they still love him for it, who cares that he's an amoral, lying, corrupt scumbag (or that Brexit is/will be largely a disaster)?
I’m in Hartlepool too Kelvin, and I’ll also be voting Labour, like you I suspect it may be in vain.
I think the Tories are riding the wave of optimism as COVID subsides, Labour, and Starmer particularly have to hold their nerve, as brexit starts to bite and people start to suffer this govt’s ineptitude will become very evident in the next 2-3 years, that will be Starmer’s moment.
[ I'm not in Hartlepool ... I don't get to vote for an MP this time around ]
Doh!
A decade of Tory austerity should've put the tories to bed, but brexit & covid have reset things.
The tory party is no longer seen as the austerity Pro EU party of Cameron, they have morphed into the Brexit party of big promises under Johnson
A similar trick to the one Blair pulled with the seemingly daft yet simultaneously genius use of the prefix 'New'
Question is what can Starmer do to counter it?
I still think the corruption angle is the right way to go, after the vaccine bounce fades the investigations will still be ongoing & the ones we know of now are only in the public domain thanks to Cummings
I'm sure there's plenty more we don't know of.
[ If I was, I'd still vote for the Labour candidate, although he was a poor choice for the seat, IMHO ]
Obviously something has gone wrong.
Hartlepool would've gone to the Tories in 2019 if it wasn't for the split vote. Johnson promised them he'd get Brexit done, and he has, support for Johnson is high. the Tories will win.
It's pretty straightforward, I'd imagine the Labour party understand it well enough.
I thought the same. Got the balance right, I thought. Came across very well. Are people listening? Doesn’t look like it
There are a lot more people listening than if he hadn't done it IMHO.
I still think the corruption angle is the right way to go, after the vaccine bounce fades the investigations will still be ongoing & the ones we know of now are only in the public domain thanks to Cummings
The Tory's are presently doing everything in their power, some of it extremely dubious (described by one senior civil servant as Orwellian) to block freedom of information requests. They don't want the details of the dodgy PPE contracts etc to be in the public domain. For obvious reasons.
I don't think people are too bothered by who paid for his expensive curtains, but thats going to be different when the full scale of the cronyism is made public and the billions that have been handed over to their mates. Theres also the private contracts given to American healthcare providers to fulfil NHS rolls (an opportunistic privatisation by stealth) as well as the tens of billions spaffed on the test and trace debacle
Question is what can Starmer do to counter it?
Exactly what he's doing. Just look competent, keep his head down for a few more months until politics goes back to normal.
At the next election Britain will be crippled with debt and the current government will get the blame for that. Plus all the unforseen disasters that will inevitably come along.
I'm not suggesting an easy win for Labour, but voters have short memories and the situation at the next GE will be far more favourable to the opposition parties than the current situation.
I really just don’t understand this country any more
I understand it, it is a simple number game.
A higher % of older voters (majority are tory) than even 30 years ago and those older people are more likely to actually vote. To get the over 50's to switch from Tory is very, very difficult.
Add in loss of Labour seats in Scotland in same period and it becomes very difficult for Labour
Blair may have done it but even that was over 20 years ago and that was when Tories were in doldrums after 20 years combined with him selling out.
It is not really something a Labour leader can do much about at is totally at the mercy of how bad the tory party becomes (in the eyes of their voters) before they would rather have another party
Starmer was on 5LIVE this morning and doing his best not to give a straight answer.
I was disappointed.
Starmer was on 5LIVE this morning and doing his best not to give a straight answer.
I was disappointed.
Maybe the questions didn't have straight answers that would have been palatable to voters, or his party or conducive to winning elections. This can't be the first time you've heard a politician dodge questions and stick to the message. It's their job.
Maybe the questions didn’t have straight answers that would have been palatable to voters, or his party or conducive to winning elections. This can’t be the first time you’ve heard a politician dodge questions and stick to the message. It’s their job.
It may be their job but it doesn't give the impression they are someone you would trust although with Johnson as PM I am not sure if that really matters.
Although I personally believe that the Labour Party completely lacks the capability to understand what it is.
That's because they're too busy trying to think of verbal gymnastics to avoid saying that nurses should get a pay rise of more than a tenner a week. They'll also be very busy thinking of ways they can blame Corbyn for losing a seat he won twice even though he hasn't been leader for more than a year and is no longer a labour MP.
I know you can't trust TV voxpops... but the BBC ones had people still mentioning Corbyn. These were voters whose voting pattern has gone...
Labour > UKIP > Brexit > [ Conservative ]
I understand it, it is a simple number game.
A higher % of older voters (majority are tory) than even 30 years ago and those older people are more likely to actually vote. To get the over 50’s to switch from Tory is very, very difficult.
Getting the over 50's to switch from their usual type of biscuits is very difficult.
Let alone re-orienting their (misguided) political leanings.
but the BBC
The same BBC which this weekend published a long read piece by its political editor saying Johnson had never lied?
