You can't trust vox pops because the broadcaster has a range to select from, red-top journalism innit.
Very true.
Getting the over 50’s to switch from their usual type of biscuits is very difficult.
Let alone re-orienting their (misguided) political leanings.
The amount of effort the parties spend pandering to the retired demographic suggests they are only too willing to shift their vote. Or at least enough of them are to change a government.
The same BBC which this weekend published a long read piece by its political editor saying Johnson had never lied?
The article did not say Boris never lied. It very much played down and excused his lying and missed out verifiable facts that show he is a liar.
I know you can’t trust TV voxpops… but the BBC ones had people still mentioning Corbyn.
You can't trust Voxpops, but it still feels plausible to me. The Socialist Campaign Group have increased in size. Corbyn may be gone but his wing of the party could get a leadership candidate nominated easily and then who knows what the members would do? Historically they'd vote for the hardest left candidate every time, do voters think the Corbyn era has changed that?
Personally, I think it's irrelevant and the disincentive to vote Labour is a less complicated than that. The party attacked the northern voters last time so those voters won't vote labour this time. Simple as that. A bit childish, but many of us are. Even in this thread - if you call people "misguided" do they warm to you? I don't think so. I think it puts people's backs up.
Reminds me of a friend organising her wedding. Compiling the guest list she started with all the people she didn't want at her wedding. By the time she'd got to the finish she was short of guests. Half the Labour party don't want votes from the Brexiteers, or the elderly, or the stupid, or people who didn't have higher education, or working class people or lower middle class people or mail readers or van drivers, or privately educated people, or rural people. Who's left?
Having said all that governments lose elections rather than opposition's winning and crippling debt is going to make the next election a nightmare for the Tories plus whatever unforseen disasters occur before then. Keir's doing all the right things, he understands winning. *And* he's the first Labour leader since Brown who actually wanted the job! That counts for a lot.
The amount of effort the parties spend pandering to the retired demographic suggests they are only too willing to shift their vote. Or at least enough of them are to change a government.
Looks like Labour have a bit of work left.
Combined with polling research from Ipsos MORI suggesting that turnout in 2019 ranged from 47% among 18 to 24-year‑olds up to 74% among over-65s.
I know you can’t trust TV voxpops… but the BBC ones had people still mentioning Corbyn.
Unfortunately a lot of peoples only engagement with politics is to 'know' that the labour party has been taken over by pro-EU, marxist terrorist-smpathisers a few years ago.
How labour changes this narrative, god only knows, when a lot of people are only taking in three word slogans. Its a massive job
I don't think Hartlepool (which I think Labour will lose by quite some margin) is any kind of benchmark. It would have gone Tory last time out if the Brexit Party hadn't stood a candidate which hoovered up a massive chunk of the Tory vote, gifting the seat to labour
With them now out of the picture, it looks like this was just postponing the inevitable
From my perspective its (sadly) been a good few years since Labour resembled an electable political party. I hope Starmer can galvanise them into a better political unit, but I've not seen much evidence of this yet tbh. Meanwhile the Tories do pretty much as they wish.
From my perspective its (sadly) been a good few years since Labour resembled an electable political party.
But what is it about the tory party that resembles an electable political party?
Strange isn't it! Perhaps its the leadership issue thats been at the heart of the problem. Labour have really struggled with a series of leaders who lacked credibility in a very big way (and thats saying something next to Boris).
I think Labour have looked so chronically bad that the Tories get away with what they want. Tories are a bit more willing to put a face on to keep their jobs. And their leaders have probably been more acceptable to the general public.
But what is it about the tory party that resembles an electable political party?
Probably the fact they don't more or less depend on ~60 seats in Scotland to gain a majority. Add (say) 45 seats to Labour's tally every GE and they start to look *very* electable. Plus that's (say) 45 extra people on their benches to select capable front benchers from.
Starmzy is doing the exact opposite of what he needs to do which is attack the Government at every opportunity. The silent, long-game has done nothing useful.
He's not offering the alternative either.
Sure, In the wake of Brexit we are still divided in many ways but you have to offer the electorate a better alternative. Labour are hiding from this. It's a farce and it needs tackling. If you create enough reasons to dislike the Tories (and there are loads) and offer the solutions people will come, eventually.
Keeping silent is part of why we are in this mess now.
Stop wasting time on the small scale corruption and look at the big scale failure of neolibralism. (Of course being centrist makes you a bit blind to this.)
Build back better sticks unfortunately for Labour.
But what is it about the tory party that resembles an electable political party?
Probably the fact they don’t more or less depend on ~60 seats in Scotland to gain a majority. Add (say) 45 seats to Labour’s tally every GE and they start to look *very* electable. Plus that’s (say) 45 extra people on their benches to select capable front benchers from.
But Labour was synonymous with Scotland until recently. That should have been a strength not a weakness. Are we starting to see the same thing happening in the North of England? Complete collapse of the Labour party? Is this all down to dwindling trades union membership and a Labour party thats struggling to adapt?
Starmzy is doing the exact opposite of what he needs to do which is attack the Government at every opportunity.
The focus groups say otherwise. I'm inclined to trust them.
The focus groups say otherwise. I’m inclined to trust
You're joking? The focus groups are clearly not leading Labour to any sort of victory any time soon. Evidently.
The recent flag stuff was born out of focus groups.
https://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1389474536953892865?s=19
Are we starting to see the same thing happening in the North of England? Complete collapse of the Labour party? Is this all down to dwindling trades union membership and a Labour party thats struggling to adapt?
Does any party have a "right" to exist? If Labour can't offer anyone an alternative that's worth voting for they'll go the same way as the Dodo.
You can have a "clarity" that most of the electorate reject. Then what?
Boris forever 🙂
Hartlepool would’ve gone to the Tories in 2019 if it wasn’t for the split vote. Johnson promised them he’d get Brexit done, and he has, support for Johnson is high. the Tories will win.
It’s pretty straightforward, I’d imagine the Labour party understand it well enough.
The RW vote was split in a similar way in 2015 (between the Tories and UKIP) yet Labour returned a much increased majority in 2017.
Indeed, but that spilt is over now. Johnson has prioritised uniting the UKIP/Brexit/Tory vote above all else, to win and keep power. Well done him. This is one of those seats where that plan is still delivering beyond even the 2019 high point for him, now that Farage has stopped running candidates in Labour held seats... and there are more seats like this that could well be lost the next time they are contested... which brings us to...
Boris forever
and attempts to counter this with...
The recent flag stuff
The recent flag stuff
Some of the discourse about Hartlepool is getting hysterical, particularly that James medway tweet, the town is still going to vote on brexit grounds
Hopefully a labour loss will nudge labour towards the progressive alliance at the next election.
Yes, people prefer:
'Britain is still great, foreigners are bad, racism doesn't exist (or if it does it's fine), 'wokeism' is the greatest threat the nation faces, authoritarianism and corruption are also fine, selling NI down the river is no problem'.
And anyone who isn't ok with any of that is a traitor/commie.
Yes, people prefer:
Labour do need to challenge it better and ask what exactly is patriotic about having the latest mistress dress up in a union jack dress whilst shovelling taxpayers cash at her.
What is patriotic about not funding school meals whilst letting property developers off their fair share after they provide a donation.
What is patriotic about allowing people to cash in on a pandemic whilst people die.
The problem is the tories are being allowed to portray their narrow self interested idea of history as the norm and the plastic patriotism of wrapping themselves in a flag as being properly patriotic.
yet Labour returned a much increased majority in 2017.
Yes, lots of young first time voters turned out (many who couldn't or didn't vote in the referendum) then those same voters didn't come out in 2019, mostly as Labour's own report highlighted; they were put off by Corbyn.
Bung into the fact that the Labour candidate has been heavily criticised by the local press (something exploited by the Tories) that he was part of a NHS project that looked to close Hartlepools hospital. It's the Tory's to loose.
Yes, people prefer:
‘Britain is still great, foreigners are bad, racism doesn’t exist (or if it does it’s fine), ‘wokeism’ is the greatest threat the nation faces, authoritarianism and corruption are also fine, selling NI down the river is no problem’.
And anyone who isn’t ok with any of that is a traitor/commie.
Weird isn't it. No matter how much you call voters racist they still don't warm to you. Maybe calling them peados will win them over?
Starmer's trying to get the message across that appearing to like Britain and like British people is a prerequisite for power in errrr... Britain.
‘Britain is still great, foreigners are bad, racism doesn’t exist (or if it does it’s fine), ‘wokeism’ is the greatest threat the nation faces, authoritarianism and corruption are also fine, selling NI down the river is no problem’.
You are me may not think like that but it is clear that a lot of people in England do think like that, enough of them to ensure the Tories are safe.
How do you sell them something that is the opposite of what they believe in?
Weird isn’t it. No matter how much you call voters racist they still don’t warm to you. Maybe calling them peados will win them over?
Racists don't like being called racist? I am surprised. Many of these people have/continue to enjoy literally some of the most privileged economic conditions in human history, and yet they want to pull up the ladder behind them, but get outraged at the idea that that might be seen as somewhat selfish.
Starmer’s trying to get the message across that appearing to like Britain and like British people is a prerequisite for power in errrr… Britain.
Yes and it's highly convincing and is really doing the trick. Doing a tribute act of a nativist populist is great and all, but maybe people need something more?
How do you sell them something that is the opposite of what they believe in?
I don't think you can. Eventually I suppose people will get tired of populist rabble-rousing with no substance, but it has a lot of mileage in it yet I think.
I'm starting to think that before things change we're going to have to watch all sorts of shit unravel that most people don't appear to give a toss about, but will do once it happens
The violence properly kicking off again in NI, maybe a full blown trade war with the EU (which a certain amount of people would actually love!), Scottish independence.
Until then it looks like a majority is prepared to deliver power to the flag-wavers indefinitely, because they don't like foreigners
For once I agree with binners
I hate to say it, but their culture war on 'woke' and anything remotely progressive is paying dividends for them by the bucketload. They learnt the lessons of Brexit, that there is a majority in this country who are racist reactionaries and Brexit has emboldened them to now display that openly, in fact to celebrate it (you lost! Get over it!).
I don't know how on earth labour counter this. There seems to be no appetite outside the major cities for what they're selling
maybe people need something more?
I'm sure they do need more. But *not* less.
I don't think Kier is saying liking Britain and liking the people in Britain is *all* you need to win.
I think he's saying it's the absolute bare minimum.
If you were selling sausages door to door. Would your pitch be "You're racist. You're a bit thick. You've erroneously bought our competitor product before because you're misguided and unsophisticated. Frankly most of the people in you're area are like you."?
No, you'd pretend to like and respect them and their neighbourhood. That might not be enough. They might still prefer your competitor's sausages. But the bare minimum is not to name call and tell them how awful they are. And if you do the name calling after they've failed to buy your sausages, they will remember it next time you're in town.
That's where Kier comes in.
because they don’t like foreigners
Well, if that's the motivation then there's a clear win for Labour right there. Boris has already given everyone in Hong Kong the right to immediate UK residency and then (after 5 years) citizenship. Literary millions, vastly more than ever came here from the EU.
That'll change as soon as the first one of them actually turns up though
If Labour can’t offer anyone an alternative that’s worth voting for
And yet they did just that in 2017, and then the labour rightwing set off the nuclear bomb of AS and we are where we are. I would have some sympathy with Starmer for the thankless task of trying to reebrand a party which is now widely regarded as being anti-semitic, but given his actions since then it's pretty clear he probably thought the AS ruse was a good way of getting rid of Corbyn so he could take his place. The faster labour disappears and creates space for something else the better.
There seems to be no appetite outside the major cities for what they’re selling
Oh, there is.. but not enough to win back those "not the big city" seats. You don't have to win over everybody, just enough people in the seats that matter. Attempts to do so are being heavily resisted by those that don't want Labour to shift towards these voters... they will only accept moving those voters towards Labour. Well, at this point in the election cycle, listening rather than preaching is what is required. Is Starmer doing this, and learning what needs to be done? I don't know. I agree with those that point to 2017 as galvanising support for Labour (that was my first Labour general election vote ever), and that positive lessons can be learnt from that... but likewise, in 2019 Labour got it wrong... and not just on Brexit... and not just as regards a leader that most of Britain didn't want to see in office... but also on their overall policy platform. Starmer has changed tack on Brexit... he's distanced himself from the previous leader... and now he has the hard bit to do... build on the 2017 manifesto and dump much of the 2019 one. That is going to cause even more howls of anguish when he does... one of many reasons to keep quiet about it where possible for now.
Yes, lots of young first time voters turned out (many who couldn’t or didn’t vote in the referendum) then those same voters didn’t come out in 2019, mostly as Labour’s own report highlighted; they were put off by Corbyn.
So you agree that there are/ were significant factors beyond Brexit, which was my point. As dazh notes, in 2017 Labour managed to offer a prospectus that was attractive enough to overcome a very strongly Leave tendency, in a constituency which was considered at-risk and had a combined UKIP/ Tory vote much larger than Labour's in 2015. I'm afraid the narrative that Labour will lose on Thursday because of Brexit (combined 2019 Tory/ BP vote) doesn't hold much water.
I don’t know how on earth labour counter this. There seems to be no appetite outside the major cities for what they’re selling
This video makes some good points. Sidestep the media, Facebook etc. and just use the LP membership and supporters to make positive change directly within the communities that they want to help.
If a Labour candidate can point to specific good things that the party has helped achieve in the community it will carry gravitas. It would show that the party does care about them and is willing to put time, effort and money in to making their lives better whilst out of power, imagine what they can do when in power.
But what is it about the tory party that resembles an electable political party?
Three word slogans.
Short buzz phrases.
People love stories.
Johnson's jolly antics.
Any publicity's good.
It's pretty straightforward, I’d imagine the Labour party understand it well enough.
So it's all about Brexit and the Labour Party understands that well enough?
The obvious question in that case is why choose a candidate who was kicked out by voters, in one of the highest leave-voting constituencies in the UK, after he had spent two years doing everything he possibly could to undermine and stop Brexit?
And of course the other obvious question is why did more than half the voters in Hartlepool vote Labour in 2017? Wasn't Brexit an issue in 2017?
I think I'll stick to my original conclusion that the Labour Party is clueless and completely fails to understand what were once traditional Labour voters.
And to be fair why should they understand? The present Labour leader went to a fee paying school in one of the most affluent areas in the UK before embarking on a high-flying legal career. The original Labour leader named Kier started work down a coalmine at the age of 10.
Since Blair's ascendancy the party has been comprehensively hijack.
just use the LP membership and supporters to make positive change directly within the communities that they want to help
The "just" word there is important. All that is going on here, but it isn't enough. Why? Because who is in government matters, and restricts or boosts what can be achieved within communities. We need a change of government, and there is no sign that doing good things locally really moves voting intentions nationally enough. "Just" working hard to make positive change locally is not enough.
All that is going on here, but it isn’t enough.
Out of interest what kind of things are going in your area? Do you have any idea why they are not effective?
Oh, there is.. but not enough to win back those “not the big city” seats. You don’t have to win over everybody, just enough people in the seats that matter. Attempts to do so are being heavily resisted by those that don’t want Labour to shift towards these voters… they will only accept moving those voters to Labour. Well, at this point in the election cycles, listening rather than preaching is what is required. Is Starmer doing this, and learning what needs to be done? I don’t know.
Pretty much this, except I *do* know, Starmer has 100pc learned the lessons that needed to be learned and is doing *exactly* the right things. Might not be enough, but it's the best course of action every time.
I’m afraid the narrative that Labour will lose on Thursday because of Brexit (combined 2019 Tory/ BP vote) doesn’t hold much water.
Yeah, Brexit has already happened. Voters aren't famous for expressing gratitude with their votes once they've got what they want so this isn't directly about brexit. (*If* we think voters do use their votes to express gratitude then all the other parties might as well give up now because vaccine.)
I honestly think it's a primitive reaction to all the name calling during and after the least election/brexit campaign. I think Labour have used abuse to push the red wall voters out of the labour 'tribe'. I'm sure there are a many other factors but that's the one that explains why the numbers are split on Brexit lines when Brexit has already happened.
But it's only one seat. The GE is real test and that's probably two years away at least.
Do you have any idea why they are not effective?
Well, as an example … climate change and flood resistance/ prevention/ mitigation … amazing stuff going on locally, including by some very good Labour folk, but they can’t do anything to encourage change of land use by the largest property owners … just one example. Take any area of life you want… who is in government matters. And people seem happy to have locals working hard for change, without voting for national politicians that can help with (or even not obstruct) that change.
