Scotland Indyref 2

DrJ those sort of incidents occurr all over Europe.

Ah well, that's ok then - best not to try to do anything to reduce the hate speech.

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Ninafan your wrong, there is a democratic deficit the average Scottish voter has more power in Westminster than any other part of the Uk

DrJ buring down refugee hostels, setting fire to people ? As I posted on the EU thread support in Europe for posters like the one above and the truck are far higher, France, Holland, Austria, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia ....

What price for a Spanish veto now ?
[url= https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/spain-foreign-minister-alfonso-dastis-no-veto-independent-scotland-eu-membership-application-a7662531.html%3Famp ]Spain drops veto threat [/url]

DrJ buring down refugee hostels, setting fire to people ?

What has that got to do with anything? Are you suggesting that we ramp up the hatred until we reach the level of the worst in Europe?

What price for a Spanish veto now

I was hoping that we could swap permanent sovereignty of Scotland for keeping Gibraltar.

Would good deal for the Spanish, their fishermen would love it,

I am sure they would Ninfan. Doesn't look good for the Gibraltarians though. UK government doesn't want to represent them and the EU just washed its hands of the whole situation. Which leaves Spain.
[url= https://www.google.co.uk/amp/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1722AS ]Spain offered a veto over Gibraltar[/url]

Scotland to join Canada?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39510351

OK, it will never happen but it's an interesting idea.

A lot of pro iScotland remaining in the EU noises this week but not discussed on here?

A lot of pro iScotland remaining in the EU noises this week but not discussed on here?

I think we've finally reached peak politics, no one can be arsed any more.

That, and the wee poisonous fella has been banned.

which wee poisonous fella?

THM.

Ah - thought I had not seen him for a bit.

Why did he get banned? Never seemed troll-y or abusive

yourguitarhero - Member
Why did he get banned? Never seemed troll-y or abusive

I think we've finally reached peak politics, no one can be arsed any more.

Personally I'm treating everything between now and when we know with some degree of certainty what the Brexit deal will be as complete whattaboutery bullshit spouted for reasons of politics. And that's from all parties, the EU, Scot Indy, Pro Union, Brexiteers, Remainers. The ****ing lot!

Until then, meh.

Why did he get banned? Never seemed troll-y or abusive

😆

Personally I'm treating everything between now and when we know with some degree of certainty what the Brexit deal will be as complete whattaboutery bullshit spouted for reasons of politics. And that's from all parties, the EU, Scot Indy, Pro Union, Brexiteers, Remainers. The **** lot!

Aye, I'd second that.

Independence by Christmas?

BruceWee - Member
Independence by Christmas?

Interesting times... The SNP are going to tank the GE on a platform of "there must be a referendum", there'll be no more credible talk of "scotland doesn't want it". I figure they'll lose a few seats so there'll be some silliness about them being "in decline" while still having a crushing majority but that'll be the limit of it. If they take less than 3/4s of the seats I'll be amazed.

And realistically the Tories are going to win nationally, without some massive upsets. Will Westminster Tories be able to resist Scotland-bashing in this election? I doubt it, they shouldn't need to but they enjoyed it too much last time.

But I thought now wasnt the time for another vote

😉

"A vote for the SNP is not a vote for independence."

Will we see that line again?

I predict that the SNP will lose a small number of seats and Labour will crumble. I also predicted Clinton would win and we would vote against Brexit.

I sometimes just wish politicians (of all colours) would just eff off for a while and leave the country alone. We had major votes in 14, 15, 16 and now 17 as well.

[quote=grumpysculler ]"A vote for the SNP is not a vote for independence."
Will we see that line again?

"Every vote for the [s]Conservatives[/s] SNP will make it harder for opposition politicians who want to stop me from getting the job done.
"Every vote for the [s]Conservatives[/s]SNP will make me stronger when I negotiate for [s]Britain[/s]Scotland with the prime minister[s]s, presidents and chancellor[/s]s of the [s]European Union[/s]United Kingdom.
"Every vote for the [s]Conservatives[/s]SNP means we can stick to our plan for a stronger [s]Britain[/s]Scotland and take the right long-term decisions for a more secure future.

If I were Labour I'd be offering another Indy Ref for a labour vote in Scotland

Make it clear in the election manifesto that an SNP majority will result in a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. This GE is EUref2 so why not make it IndyRef2 while we're at it.

[quote=BruceWee ]Make it clear in the election manifesto that an SNP majority will result in a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. This GE is EUref2 so why not make it IndyRef2 while we're at it.

Romantic but impractical.

The overlaps between the EU/anti-EU, SNP/others and Indy/UK are not clear cut and the SNP don't have the time now to build the case they thought they had 18 months for.

Even if it happened, it's not clear that UDI would be enough for the pro-Scot politicians in the EU who've said they're in favour of iScotland in the EU as long as it's an amicable split from the rUK.

"Scottish people don't want another referendum" Er, only 32% of British people want a general election, but that's not important right now.

mt - Member

If I were Labour I'd be offering another Indy Ref for a labour vote in Scotland

Might win them a couple of seats in Scotland but would probably damage them in England. And frankly right now, who believes that's going to be in Labour's power to give?

It'd probably lead to more of this, though, which the SNP would love
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Guaranteed Tory govt at Westminster until at least 2022.
Even harder Brexit with "mandate" to slaughter any opposition.
Repatriation of devolved powers to Westminster.
Whatever other right-wing dogma the Tories will implement given a potentially larger majority.

Would even that be enough to sway enough Indy waiverers?

Romantic but impractical.

The overlaps between the EU/anti-EU, SNP/others and Indy/UK are not clear cut and the SNP don't have the time now to build the case they thought they had 18 months for.

Even if it happened, it's not clear that UDI would be enough for the pro-Scot politicians in the EU who've said they're in favour of iScotland in the EU as long as it's an amicable split from the rUK.

I think it's the only way for Scotland to get out of this mess. In Scotland this is going to be a ballot on whether to hold a referendum or not. Let's just get it over with and skip the in-between step.

I don't think that international recognition will be a problem. A referendum is actually not the usual way a country gains independence. Recognition by the UN is all that matters.

Will Westminster Tories be able to resist Scotland-bashing in this election? I doubt it, they shouldn't need to but they enjoyed it too much last time.

I don't think they will, they will want Ruth D and the party to make some gains up there, the big question she decides to stand for Westminister seat, as a potential future Scottish Secretary (all be it a major gamble)she could be the alternative to expose the SNP's virtue signalling and lack of policy implementation whilst making real changes herself

Guaranteed Tory govt at Westminster until at least 2022.
Even harder Brexit with "mandate" to slaughter any opposition.

large majorities create their own opposition, the party has torn itself apart in the past when equipped with a large majority

Vote more Tories for an effective opposition to the Tory Govt?

Aye, Right.

[quote=big_n_daft ]they will want Ruth D and the party to make some gains up there, the big question she decides to stand for Westminister seat, as a potential future Scottish Secretary (all be it a major gamble)she could be the alternative to expose the SNP's virtue signalling and lack of policy implementation whilst making real changes herself
Have you been on the champers already this morning?

BruceWee - Member

I don't think that international recognition will be a problem. A referendum is actually not the usual way a country gains independence. Recognition by the UN is all that matters.

Don't agree, it's all about the EU and we'd want them to be as happy as the can possibly be with the starting point.

That aside, there's just not time to make this election about UDI even if it was an obviously good idea. They'd lose.

big_n_daft - Member
I don't think they will, they will want Ruth D and the party to make some gains up there, the big question she decides to stand for Westminister seat, as a potential future Scottish Secretary (all be it a major gamble)she could be the alternative to expose the SNP's virtue signalling and lack of policy implementation whilst making real changes herself

There was a bodgy poll which was used to big her up, but it was so bodgy only frothing yoons believed it.

The more recent Ashcroft poll shows her real position, and she's even less popular than Thatcher at her worst.

There [i]was[/i] an Ashcroft poll which showed Davidson more popular than Sturgeon- but it was a national poll not a Scotland poll. Of course lots of people forgot to mention that when reporting on it.

I think Davidson the person is actually pretty popular. But Davidson the leader of the Conservative party in Scotland is not. And that's been cutting her badly just lately.

Have you been on the champers already this morning?

LOL

When was the last bit of legislation passed by the Scottish Parliament?

Why haven't they used the devolved powers to change the new changes to benefits?

Etc, etc

The reality is she is astoundingly unpopular.

I think that Scottish politics is so polarised that the "antis" are noisy whoever is looked at

"Repatriation of devolved powers to Westminster"

Nope that'll not happen.

big_n_daft - Member

When was the last bit of legislation passed by the Scottish Parliament?

February. Received royal assent a couple of weeks ago.

Here's a nice graphic for you- 2016 was the busiest legislative year in Scottish parliamentary history. Of course, most of that fell into the first half of the year, but that's because there was an election in May and you plan your legislature by session. The first months of a session are the quietest, when it's the same party in power (when there's a change of power the new party usually has a shopping list) but still, there's 9 bills in progress.

http://www.legislation.gov.uk/asp

February. Received royal assent a couple of weeks ago.

So other than the budget, nothing has been passed

Here's a nice graphic for you- 2016 was the busiest legislative year in Scottish parliamentary history. Of course, most of that fell into the first half of the year, but that's because there was an election in May and you plan your legislature by session. The first months of a session are the quietest, when it's the same party in power (when there's a change of power the new party usually has a shopping list) but still, there's 9 bills in progress.

Assuming all progress to royal assent in this year, a lower work rate than the previous Parliaments?

Even harder Brexit with "mandate" to slaughter any opposition

May has only called this because she can't rely on her backbenches so she is worried about having a working majority on Brexit.

She will surely campaign on her view of Brexit and then claim a mandate to execute it. It won't be placating the more eurosceptic elements of her party and it won't be pre-negotiation posturing.

She could aim for a moderate Brexit, if she goes hard line then she risks losing votes. They have the votes to lose, but it's not a slam dunk.

Repatriation of devolved powers to Westminster

Never going to happen.

big_n_daft - Member

Assuming all progress to royal assent in this year, a lower work rate than the previous Parliaments?

I don't see anything to suggest that tbh. Do you?

Repatriation of devolved powers to Westminster

Never going to happen.

That's not a phrase to throw about lightly these days.

https://www.ft.com/content/35376b8e-fe9e-11e6-96f8-3700c5664d30

big_n_daft - Member
'The reality is she is astoundingly unpopular.'
I think that Scottish politics is so polarised that the "antis" are noisy whoever is looked at

[img] [/img]

Wonder how it would go if the Tories put a no to indeyref2 in their manifesto for June? With all the backtracking would that guarantee there being one next year?

Why put that in the manifesto @rene ? May said no Indy2 until Brexit done, also most likely ask SNP for an explicit commitment and win at next Holyrood election. Anyway the UK GE pushes the SNP agenda further off the front page. There simply is no time.

Jamba stuff like that ^^^^ is a great help please post more often

gordimhor - Member
Jamba stuff like that ^^^^ is a great help please post more often

Let's try something for everyone to think about.

Will Scotland establish the first EU dictatorship if SNP won all the seats? 😀

Will Scottish people want to be dictated by SNP if there is no opposition in the Scottish parliament? 😛

It's a GE Chewy - the MPs elected don't sit in the Scottish Parliament

Don't confuse him further.

I see the BBC has given up on trying to put a spin on stories and has now resorted to just flat out lying.

431 - 425 does not equal -7

STV

SNP: 431 (+7)
Scottish Conservatives: 276 (+164)
Scottish Labour: 262 (-133)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 67 (-3)
Scottish Greens: 19 (+5)
Independents: 172 (-26)

BBC

SNP: 431 (-7)
Scottish Conservatives: 276 (+164)
Scottish Labour: 262 (-133)
Scottish Liberal Democrats: 67 (-3)
Scottish Greens: 19 (+5)
Independents: 172 (-26)

What a disgrace Labour have become. Embarrassing.

I see the BBC has given up on trying to put a spin on stories and has now resorted to just flat out lying.

431 - 425 does not equal -7

Boundary changes.

SNP have more councillors than last time, but if the two elections were with the same rules then the SNP would have lost seats.

It's hardly flat out lying when they clearly state this at the top of the table

Boundary changes have occurred in many councils in Scotland. Seat change is based on notional 2012 results, which estimate what the results would have been then if the new boundaries had been in place.

It's an odd way to do it, though - and the wildly different answers shows that making up a non-existent election to compare this election to is a fun exercise for statisticians but doesn't really tell you anything about reality.

Though for statistical optimism you really have to admire the Labour person who claimed that Labour did well in Glasgow because their percentage vote share was up on 2015 😀

With the media, though, it really does seem that they like the "resurgent Scottish Tories" story and are going to run with that, even when it's not reflected by reality.

Then there's the Herald's epic bit of spin here:

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There's a useful rule that any headline that has things in quotes is 'almost always bollocks'

Boundary changes.

SNP have more councillors than last time, but if the two elections were with the same rules then the SNP would have lost seats.

It's hardly flat out lying when they clearly state this at the top of the table

Yes and I'm very much looking forward to someone (anyone) explaining the methodology that meant these boundary changes resulted in a 14 seat swing against the SNP while every other party's totals remained the same.

Or is boundary changes just another word for magic wand?

Quote marks you say 😉

To be fair to Labour, their objective may well not be anything other than still existing. They know they're in for a rough time. The only time I saw a labour candidate was at the polling station. He looked well tanned, guess he's got a lot of time for gardening.

For the conservatives, they have done really well considering how many see them, and it's hard to not view it as a significant increase, you could almost call it a surge. Cant see them doing much better than this.

The sinking spin is standard issue spin (plenty on wings to compare with). Can't really see how any things changed as a result of the locals.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the total number of votes for the SNP is up as well as the number of seats won. I expected to see an overall SNP decline because they hardly campaigned at all, and did not put up a load of candidates in many regions where they could have had more of the vote.

The way the BBC is spinning it is lying, plain and simple.

There's no question or if or but or different boundaries etc, these are the seats that were campaigned for, not those of the previous boundaries.

The Tory gains have been made at the expense of Labour, and that probably represents the total hardcore Unionist support in Scotland. The good news is it's smaller than I thought it would be.

I don't know how Labour in Scotland are going to spin it, but if they want to survive in Scotland they are going to have to get behind independence or wither away to LibDem irrelevance.

I can't see them changing their ways though because they are really just a pseudo Scottish party controlled from London HQ.

They can prove me wrong in that by having a local leadership coup and coming out for independence. (They'll probably have the coup, but complete their death throes by going the other way)

I'm not sure how many more labour supporters will jump ship to the tories. I would imagine all the soft labour voters, lib dem voters, and voters who are so died in the wool unionist that they would be prepared to hold their noses and vote tory have already done so. In which case the GE is looking pretty safe for the SNP.

On the other hand there may actually be some momentum for the tories and there are more votes to be gathered. After all, their support is still below Thatcher's at its lowest, maybe there's more to come.

There's a useful rule that any headline that has things in quotes is 'almost always bollocks'

True. 😉

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15269006.___Clear__victory__for_SNP_as_party_sees_more_councillors_voted_into_office_than_2012/?ref=mr&lp=13

10/10 for SNP spin, even Robertson was talking up his local council "victory" where the SNP majority is now just 1. He is a definite loser come 8th June.

The story North of the border is all about the Tory resurgence following on from the Scottish elections, now local and the clear trend which is going to give the Tories more Westmister MPs North of the border. The SNP got a reduced majority at Holyrood and will have fewer Westminster MPs

IndyRef 2 was killed off by the EU Referendum really. The weak economic case is now dire.

On the other hand there may actually be some momentum for the tories and there are more votes to be gathered. After all, their support is still below Thatcher's at its lowest, maybe there's more to come.

This is something that worries me tbh. By becoming a legitimate opposition they may find further support.

I think I'm preferring to pretend to myself that's not possible for the moment.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the total number of votes for the SNP is up as well as the number of seats won. I expected to see an overall SNP decline because they hardly campaigned at all, and did not put up a load of candidates in many regions where they could have had more of the vote.

Has anyone got the final numbers for the popular vote in Scotland? They are oddly difficult to find.

what's the breakdown on actual numbers of people voting for each part, not seats. Can't find it anywhere.

Curious to see is labour seats going directly to the tories, is much the same in absolute numbers, and I want to see actual numbers voting SNP. And I would like to see percentage breakdowns?

Anyone came across that yet?

BruceWee - Member

Has anyone got the final numbers for the popular vote in Scotland? They are oddly difficult to find.

btw, let the tories spin this as a win for them all they like (rather than just the collapse of labour and unionists polarising behind the tories).

Hopefully encourage a backlash come the GE.

Biggest question for me in this, is since labours unionist vote is obviously deserting them, how much longer can they actually continue being a unionist party?

jambalaya - Member
The SNP got a reduced majority at Holyrood

www.renfrewshire.gov.uk/2017LocalGovResults

My council shows number of 1st preferential votes for each candidate. I suspect the data is out there for all councils. Why it's not reported on I can only guess it's because it doesn't fit with the agenda.

IndyRef 2 was killed off by the EU Referendum really.

The EU vote * is the ONLY reason we and the SNP are having this debate.
Anyone who says different has spectacularly failed to understand a rather simple point.

* especially as Scotland voted to stay

BBC Scotland News - So a victorious night for the Tories in the Scottish council elections. And now sport where Aberdeen are celebrating winning the Scottish league after finishing 30 points behind Celtic.

(stolen from facebook)

Just about sums it up.

I don't think you can easily actually get meaningful numbers because of the way the vote works. Remember you voted 1 to x in order of preference, but didn't have to use all numbers. So it isn't easy to count them all up and translate into direct support for one party or another.

My advice to 1st Minister Sturgeon is to increase her campaign for independence. She should keep talking about it at every opportunity and by using harsh comments towards PM May. Then she should hammer the Scottish people for independence as much as possible. 🙂

scoob67 - Member
BBC Scotland News - So a victorious night for the Tories in the Scottish council elections. And now sport where Aberdeen are celebrating winning the Scottish league after finishing 30 points behind Celtic.

dragon - Member
I don't think you can easily actually get meaningful numbers because of the way the vote works. Remember you voted 1 to x in order of preference, but didn't have to use all numbers. So it isn't easy to count them all up and translate into direct support for one party or another.

Chewk has arisen - puts kettle on.

Chewk is a slavering ****ing idiot