Scotland Indyref 2

a vote for a scottish independence referendum cannot come from Westminster only Holyrood

But that's my point, it's simply not true - for it to have effect, the vote has to be subject to a S30 order approved by the Westminster parliament, just like last time.

It would be perfectly possible for Theresa May to agree to another referendum on the request of the Scottish parliament/government, and the Westminster parliament say no.

I agree it's possible(and indeed, the correct way to go about thing), politics makes it unlikely to be refused though.

nobeer - that is certainly true. One particular individual has been missing for a couple of weeks now. I wonder if he is hurt too much?

Posted missing from the whole site in fact. I wonder if Mark's hammer of righteous moderation has smote him.

seosamh77 - Member
I agree it's possible to be refused(and indeed going through Westminster is the correct way to go about things), but politics makes it unlikely to be refused though, especially when there is a legitimate mandate from the scottish parliament..

Btw even thatcher thought a pro-indy majority in westminster was legitimate cause. We're well past that.

Guess I should edit that to what I actually ment! 😆

piemonster - Member
...*please tell me you have an x men style outfit?

Nah, but I have a kilt. 🙂

Used to have the family claymore, but I passed it on to another family member in Oz before coming back here.

For all of the talk about mandates and the majorities that SNP almost achieved in Holyrood and what first past the post gave them in Westminster, theres no denying that the both the SNP and the Greens have blown it with a percentage of their voters (how many remains to be seen).

Both (SNP and Green) said strong words about the pressure for a referendum coming from the "people" rather than from "party".

That made it safe for people who like the SNP "all things to all men" politics, but don't want independence, to vote for them, and for the green inclined non-independence junkies to vote for them.

But now, after the elections when there is _no_ pressure for independence from the people in Scotland, they've decided that they know best anyway.

If you listen carefully Sturgeon has even started talking about the "will of the parliament" rather than the "will of the people" over the last few weeks, and that is possibly the most dangerous ground she could be on for the future of Scotland.

Its dangerous because Sturgeon and Harvie are wilfully fomenting enormous resentment from those who don't want independence.

I agree with tj that theres a lack of real alternatives when it comes to voting for many people in Scotland. The libdems, labour and conservatives all have baggage for certain groups.

But now that everyone knows that a vote for the SNP or Greens = vote for neverendum, things might change.

Sadly, the change that might come is the practice of people voting to keep one side out of power rather than in favour of the policies of another, because of a single overriding issue.

Thats exactly whats meant by the "ulsterisation" of politics. (N.B. not talking about the violence here but the tribalism).

So, (IMO) thats where we are headed in Scotland, because Sturgeon can't let it go in the face of the majority views of her own constituents.

And some people still think shes some sort of political genius?

tish and pishaw.

eat_the_pudding - Member
For all of the talk about mandates...
..tish and pishaw.

There is huge pressure on Sturgeon to hold another referendum - from the party, from the wider independence movement and from the public at large.

there is no doubt at all she would rather wait until the polls show a large majority for independence but events have robbed her of that option.

thing is, you are correct in that no all SNP or green support independence, but the converse is true, not all Labour/Tories/Lib Dems support the union. So it's difficult to quantify.

As for sturgeon, well we'll see how it plays out, simple fact is that another ref wasn't in the agenda. It is now.

There are more people wanting independence now than there was at the start of the last campaign. Going back to 2012 what percentage would have wanted a referendum? Now it appears to be 50/50.

rene59 - Member
There are more people wanting independence now than there was at the start of the last campaign.

Opinion or fact?

As far as I am concerned, my view is that there are much less people wanting an independence now because they are waiting to see what they can get out from Brexit. 😛

I'll go with opinion polls for a useable guide rather than rely on whatever the f is going on in your head thank you.

rene59 - Member
I'll go with opinion polls for a useable guide rather than rely on whatever the f is going on in your head thank you.

What goes in my head is mine ... 😆

chewkw - Member
...What goes in my head is mine ...

I used to think May an intelligent politician but her mishandling of things over the last while has changed that very much

I thought her intelligent and that her Brexit waffle was merely pre-negotiation posturing. And then Andrew Neil interviewed her last night. Car crash is an understatement.

There are more people wanting independence now than there was at the start of the last campaign.

Given most people had to make their mind up one way or the other during the last campaign, that is hardly surprising. Unless you subscribe to the theory that Leave gained 15% (or whatever) last time so they'll gain it again this time and so win with nearly 60% of the vote.

Both sides are really quite entrenched after 2014 and the pool of floating voters is quite small.

epicyclo - Member

chewkw - Member
...What goes in my head is mine ...

Which is why I recommended some DIY neurosurgery with a ?" drill

Am I mistaken in feeling that the 'independence side' are rather patronising?

seosamh77 - Member
You have way too much confidence in scotland actually being full of nationalists willing to die for the cause. It isn't. Thankfully.

Only takes a couple of people and things have a habit of getting out of hand, as said it really depends on how badly it gets handled. There wasn't a huge drive for Irish independence but Englands response to the uprising led to one.

Both sides are really quite entrenched after 2014 and the pool of floating voters is quite small.

one word, Brexit. If it goes badly it will swing people, if it goes well then the status quo will be maintained.

gauss1777 - Member

Am I mistaken in feeling that the 'independence side' are rather patronising?

Not compared to better together

I'd characterise it as patronising and condescending from the NO side but a bit shrill dogmatic and uncompromising from the YES side

Try this for patronising - from lasttime

Am I mistaken in feeling that the 'independence side' are rather patronising?

Note I am not referring to anyone here but on the wider social media

I suppose the opportunity for the independence side this time is to portray post brexit UK as a step into the unknown.

Thing is the independence side is a huge number of folk so you can find almost anything amongst them - I know I see them on social media whereas there is no mass movement on the NO side - its all top down.

Am broadly neutral on this one so don't post on it, but read it from time to time. Anyway I has question! Forgive me if I can distract you guys for a minute.

What happens if Sturgeon and Co. just say "**** you May, we're running a referendum anyway."? (As in, could it physically take place without the PM's permission? Does Scotland have enough devolved powers to run one? I'm assuming it physically can; after all, it runs its own elections.

[Forgive me if this has already been answered.]

Deadlydarcy, my take on this, May can't stop it. Same approach that the Catalans are currently pursuing.

How would May then respond? seize control of Scotland????

How would that escalate?

Best is to humour Sturgeon, and hope Brexit goes well. IMO

mrmo - Member
seosamh77 - Member
You have way too much confidence in scotland actually being full of nationalists willing to die for the cause. It isn't. Thankfully.
Only takes a couple of people and things have a habit of getting out of hand, as said it really depends on how badly it gets handled. There wasn't a huge drive for Irish independence but Englands response to the uprising led to one.

If you just look at 1916 in isolation, yip, the British made a **** of it. Particularly with the executions. But even then, risings in Ireland have a long history, that was just one rising of many, you had many before, the United Irishmen, Fenians etc. Wasn't like there was one rising and that was it... independence.

And lets not forget the rising was followed by the war of independence, then partition, then the civil war followed that too. And that's before you get to more modern day attempts at insurrection ie in the border campaign etc and into the troubles. Over 100 years later since partition, the problems are still far from solved.

Here's a taste of how long physical force separatism takes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Irish_uprisings

Independence via insurrection is a long long long game. And arguably a slower process than the democratic route(but that's a whole other, interesting, discussion.

It's also incredibly destructive, which is probably the most relevant point. Simple fact is people in Scotland wouldn't have the stomach for such a fight. Particularly with the comfy lives people lead these days. People have more to lose. Like I say the conditions just don't exist. It's fantasy, and quite frankly, no justification for it what so ever, in the scottish context..

deadlydarcy - Member
Am broadly neutral on this one so don't post on it, but read it from time to time. Anyway I has question! Forgive me if I can distract you guys for a minute.

What happens if Sturgeon and Co. just say "**** you May, we're running a referendum anyway."? (As in, could it physically take place without the PM's permission? Does Scotland have enough devolved powers to run one? I'm assuming it physically can; after all, it runs its own elections.

Seosamh, yes plenty of previous, but from what i have read on the topic, there wasn't really an overwhelming desire, the English response tipped the balance. Same as in Scotland, no huge desire, but handle it badly and it could escalate quite easily.

btw there's also an easy solution for unionist on any independent referendum. Non participation would invalidate any result.

We can run an advisory referendum,like brexit was but it would not be legally binding. The Unionist side could just boycott it and it that would leave the result with no credibility unless the turn out was massive.

Beat me to it Seosamh

mrmo - Member
Seosamh, yes plenty of previous, but from what i have read on the topic, there wasn't really an overwhelming desire, the English response tipped the balance. Same as in Scotland, no huge desire, but handle it badly and it could escalate quite easily.

btw there's also an easy solution for unionist on any independent referendum. Non participation would invalidate any result.

true, it worked for Hungary????? a couple of months back.

I wouldn't use the legally binding argument gordimhor, look where that has led...

what happened in hungary?

Seosamh, not on idependence but same principle in my opinion.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/02/hungarian-vote-on-refugees-will-not-take-place-suggest-first-poll-results

Interesting, didn't know about that, cheers.

I wouldn't use the legally binding argument gordimhor, look where that has led.

There are hints that legal action might be taken if May refuses a referendum - not sure with whom, but wouldn't it be ironic if it went to the European courts?

bencooper - Member
There are hints that legal action might be taken if May refuses a referendum - not sure with whom, but wouldn't it be ironic if it went to the European courts?

Would that be a surprise? Absolutely not. 😛

[url= https://fraserofallander.org/2017/03/28/estimating-scotlands-fiscal-position/amp/ ]Good article on GERS figures[/url]

[url= http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2017/03/what-do-voters-in-scotland-want-from-brexit/ ]Scotalnd pretty similar to England on Brexit [/url]

seosamh77 - Member
...Independence via insurrection is a long long long game...

There's plenty that didn't take long at all.

Kenya, Cyprus, Bangladesh, Iran, Romania, off the top of my head.

But best of all was Iceland's little revolution after the GFC.

What are the paralells to scotland with any of those though that make them relevant?

Interested to know, can't say I know much about any of them.

As you said mefty a good article on gets, but you're really stretching for

Scotalnd pretty similar to England on Brexit

Deadly#Darcy

If all the unionist parties boycott a unilateral referendum then it becomes worthless. 99% yes on a 45% turnout does not give you a mandate. However get the turnout into the 89% region then it would and the next step is UDI

Tories certainly would boycott. Lib dems / Labour not so sure. The labour line seems to be " its a decision for the people of Scotland" so a boycott from them would look odd. lib dems - who knows. In complete disarray in Scotland but they have always had a distinctly scottish flavour to them north of the border unlike labour

the spice to that is a significant proportion of labour voters voted yes last time and although the labour vote continues to collapse in Scotland this might just finish them off and perhaps one of the various "socialist" groups in Scotland would take their vote.

The continual crys of SNP baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad from labour has put a load of folk off them me included ( I voted labour for nearly 40 years)

seosamh77 - Member
What are the paralells to scotland with any of those though that make them relevant?...

The problem with that approach is the results aren't always what most of the participants expected, and a more consensual approach leaves less bitterness and damage.

tjagain - Member
If all the unionist parties boycott a unilateral referendum then it becomes worthless...

No it doesn't.

It's their democratic right whether or not to register their opinion in an election or referendum.

If they choose to boycott, then we should support their democratic right to not have their opinion registered, and if that weights the decision the way they don't like, then that's the consequence they have to accept.

Otherwise the UK parliament would grind to a halt every time Labour shows their opposition to peasant crushing by abstaining.

But in any case, are we all forgetting the UK is still a member of the EU? Rejection of a referendum could be fought legally in those courts. That would be the ultimate Brexit irony.

For that matter the UN has rules on this too.

mefty - Member
Good article on GERS figures

"Independence via insurrection is a long long long game"

You reckon? Scottish people are *really* hard, you know.

If it came to a fight the entire English population would be slave workers in their Inverness Porridge mines within a fortnight.

tjagain - Member

The continual crys of SNP baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaad from labour has put a load of folk off them me included ( I voted labour for nearly 40 years)

I got a facebook update from Slab and about half of all the responses were Labour members criticising the tone and content. Those responses caused an avalanche of people accusing everyone who criticised the post, of being cybernats. If I was still a Labour voter I'd have been banging my head against the wall but it's just the SNP baaaaaad taken to its illogical conclusion- "we said snp baaaad and these guys didn't like it, therefore these guys baaaaad too"

epicyclo - Member

The parallel is all had bottled up desire for independence/democracy that had been restrained

Plus, you may not like the current democratic structure. But quite simply, scotland is a functioning democracy. Probably has more democracy than other parts of the uk, particularly if you compare it to english regions, which are the equivalent to scotland, even if they don't have the same "national" identity.

You can legitimately argue for more or better democracy for scotland under independence. You can't really argue that scotland is undemocratic though, the fact it has it's own, reasonable powerfully, parliament, is over represented in westminster(correctly so) and has had 3 referendums on how it runs it's affairs is really unarguable.

It makes me want to despair the lack of understanding labour in Scotland has

Big campaign based on " half a billion cuts in the scottish NHS" which is just wrong - the budget is increasing. If it had been "300 beds closed" or "service A, B and C cut" it would have had some truth to it and would have been much harder to refute. As it was a big fanfare launch was simply killed with " this is the budget" leaving them looking foolish indeed.

outofbreath - Member
"Independence via insurrection is a long long long game"

You reckon? Scottish people are *really* hard, you know.

If it came to a fight the entire English population would be slave workers in their Inverness Porridge mines within a fortnight.

disagree epicyclo. If the unionist parties boycott and thus turnout is low it has no legitimacy unless even with the boycott significantly more votes were cast yes - not % but actual votes.

Plenty of precedent for this in international law.

Whether a boycott would be called and whether the call would be heeded we don't know but a turnout down in the 40% or lower region would make it very easy to argue its not representative and can be ignored

Again both calling an "unoffical" referendum and calling for a boycott are high risk tactics but a significant boycott would lead a referendum to be valueless

I work with a couple of Scottish guys here in England and I was asking one of them what they thought of it all. One of them replied. "Don't you find it funny that Nicola Sturgeon harks on about an independent Scotland, but then states she wants to be part of the EU!" Mmmm, that's not really independence.

Independence is when you don't need to ask permission to leave a union. It really is that simple.

flanagaj - Member
I work with a couple of Scottish guys here in England and I was asking one of them what they thought of it all. One of them replied. "Don't you find it funny that Nicola Sturgeon harks on about an independent Scotland, but then states she wants to be part of the EU!" Mmmm, that's not really independence.

I've been waiting for you! 😆

[img] [/img]

Yeah I had to strectch to the 4th para

The results will doubtless come as a surprise to many. For it seems that despite the way Scotland voted in the EU referendum, attitudes north of the border towards the shape of Brexit are not so different after all. In particular, rather than endorsing freedom of movement, it seems that most voters in Scotland, just like their counterparts elsewhere, would like to maintain free trade but abandon freedom of movement. As a result, it seems that their position is much closer to that of the UK government than that of the Scottish Government.

seems a vrry convoluted survey tbh, I wouldn't really put much store in it's contents tbh.

I agree the question is incredibily complex though, which is why I still don't believe a referendum should be run before brexit, it's just an unnecessary complication to a question that does need asked again at some point. The context shouldn't be UK or EU though.

seosamh77

When our budget is set in Westminster by a government with 1 out of 59 mps there is a serious democratic deficit. When that government has absolute control despite a minority of votes UK wide there is a serious democratic deficit.

Plenty of other ways that there is a serious democratic deficit

the people of Scotland do not want weapons of mass destruction on our soil. What choice have we?

tjagain - Member

the people of Scotland do not want weapons of mass destruction on our soil

When our budget is set in Westminster by a government with 1 out of 59 mps there is a serious democratic deficit. When that government has absolute control despite a minority of votes UK wide there is a serious democratic deficit.

Plenty of other ways that there is a serious democratic deficit

I'm also pretty certain that within an independent scotland I'm likely to disagree with the sitting government more often than not. That's not a democratic deficit, it's just I disagree with the majority.

**** it, i'm campaigning for a republic of joe! 😆

As I said you can argue smaller is better and more reactive to scotlands needs, the larger grouping undemocratic? nah, it's just an argument over sample size. democracy is never perfect, it's a compromise(well least it should be..)

And argument I agree with, I'd like to see an independent scotland in the EU, I'd also like to so RUK in that EU too.

the people of Scotland do not want weapons of mass destruction on our soil

Now, I'm far from being an expert on the operation of them, and I haven't done the perisher course, but I seem to recall that if a Nuclear submarine somehow ends up on Scottish soil, then someone's in a lot of trouble...

Scotland being a PR (ish) parliament means you cannot get control without a majority of votes.

If you have to have permission to have a referendum its not democratic

When the parliament does not even have the power to hold a referndum its not democratic

When yo have a chamber stuffed full of political appointees, religious leaders from one sect on and people who were there because they were an invaders cronies descendent there is a serious democratic deficit

Westminster is no democracy and the relations ship bwetween westminster and Holyrood is not democratic.

Sturgeon has a far bigger mandate for a referendum than Camreon did.

If you have to have permission to have a referendum its not democratic

You don't, SNP just need to introduce a private members bill and win a vote in parliament, the real one that is, not the parish council.

When the parliament does not even have the power to hold a referndum its not democratic

Parliament is Supreme remember, you lot whinged on about it, even went to court to make sure it was the case

[quote=ninfan ]the people of Scotland do not want weapons of mass destruction on our soil
Now, I'm far from being an expert on the operation of them, and I haven't done the perisher course, but I seem to recall that if a Nuclear submarine somehow ends up on Scottish soil, then someone's in a lot of trouble...
If you're trying to be pedantic then you should at least realise that the weapons aren't all stored on the submarines all the time. In fact, there are more stored on land than ever at sea.

tj, the anti democracy line will only get you so far. As many have mentioned on this thread, positions are polarised and the pool of floating voters is small. Next ref is going to have to be smarter than the playground stuff of nationalism and oppression. Either that or there's no point in another ref. People care about their bottom line and their living conditions. Fight it on that if you want to win it.

GERS, pensions, currency, jobs etc that's the battle lines.

If you're trying to be pedantic then you should at least realise that the weapons aren't all stored on the submarines all the time. In fact, there are more stored on land than ever at sea.

If I was trying to be pedantic, I would point out that neither you, nor I, have any idea whether warheads are stored in Scotland, or elsewhere, such as AWE Aldermaston & Burghfield

Well at least you'll get the government you want seosamh, but who will be the opposition?

gordimhor - Member
Well at least you'll get the government you want seosamh, but who will be the opposition?

seems a vrry convoluted survey tbh, I wouldn't really put much store in it's contents tbh.

It is based on the same methodology as the Social Attitudes Survey which also produce inconvenient results for many politicians in Scotland in that they show that Scotland's political attitudes are remarkably similiar to those in the rest of the UK. Obviously this doesn't translate into the same electoral results, but it does the centre ground is pretty similar so for instance a shift to the left by Labour is unlikely to be more effective than it has so far so proven to be in the UK generally.

[quote=ninfan ]If you're trying to be pedantic then you should at least realise that the weapons aren't all stored on the submarines all the time. In fact, there are more stored on land than ever at sea.
If I was trying to be pedantic, I would point out that neither you, nor I, have any idea whether warheads are stored in Scotland, or elsewhere, such as AWE Aldermaston & Burghfield

* cough *
Coulport
* cough *

It's not hard, really 🙄

seosamh77

Oh I agree thats the battle lines. But its worth pointing out the democratic deficit is huge both for scotland and the UK as a whole.

Now if we had PR in westminster and it was for england only, no house of lords but a federal senate then there would be much less of one.

mefty - Member
seems a vrry convoluted survey tbh, I wouldn't really put much store in it's contents tbh.
It is based on the same methodology as the Social Attitudes Survey which also produce inconvenient results for many politicians in Scotland in that they show that Scotland's politic attitudes are remarkably similiar to those in the rest of the UK. Obviously this doesn't translate into the same electoral results, but it does the centre ground is pretty similar so for instance a shift to the left by Labour is unlikely to be more effective than it has so far so proven to be in the UK generally.

Ninfan: It's not exactly a secret where the weapons are stored, at least not to the majority of us scots who have been brought up with the legacy of nuclear weapons within a few miles of our homes. Perhaps you'd be happy with them in your back garden?

Perhaps you'd be happy with them in your back garden

That's his wet dream.

Moving a long way past GERS isn't actually that complicated if we just create a functioning budget for the first year of Scottish independence.

interesting perspective on gers

https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10672/robin-mcalpine-be-careful-it-isnt-gers-thats-con-its-spin-it-thats-problem

If I was trying to be pedantic, I would point out that neither you, nor I, have any idea whether warheads are stored in Scotland, or elsewhere, such as AWE Aldermaston & Burghfield

The subs sail to Aldermaston to load or offload warheads? All those hardened bunkers at Coulport are just for show?

It's no secret where the warheads are stored.

tjagain - Member

the people of Scotland do not want weapons of mass destruction on our soil.

Personally I'll be very happy to lease out the land and facilities (at a cost proportional to a 205 billion pound project).

Crikey things have escalated fast ... 😆

Scotland being a PR (ish) parliament means you cannot get control without a majority of votes.

Really? So how did SNP get an overall majority in 2016 with just 46.5% of the constituency vote? And 45.39% in 2011?

The SNP did not get an overall majority in 2016! there are flaws in the system hence pr(ish)

to be honest, I reckon we'd be looking more at civil war, most likely in the style of a massive scheme battle! a few serious skirmishes and a lot of running away!