Scotland Indyref 2

Probably more just bawbaggery.

Joe, I can tell you from first hand experience that STW views Scottish as a race and ban people for making jokes on the specific ground of racism. Silly I know but that's the case

A lot of peoples views on race are ridiculous tbh.

dear seosamh77
We have many citation spaces available for hire in YOUR area!
[ ] [ ] [ ] [ ] [ ]*
*citation space still available for hire.

Can be used freely for direct quotes or real evidence.

NB Not to be used for "the feels" or poems of despair and loss.

Still waiting on those details explaining the intricacies of the GERS figures, beyond the vague blocks, so we can have a conversation about them.

Maybe those who think that things are better under the SNP could list some of the legislation passed since the beginning of the current Scottish Parliament. Where doubtless they are using their new powers for the benefit of Scottish people?

As you will know, none have passed yet, seven are currently going through the system and we are still only in the first year of this session. You, like some others on here, probably seen a headline berating the fact none had passed yet (despite 2016 as a whole being a bumper year for bills going through)and jumped on this soundbite despite the record of the previous parliament session introducing and passing all the main bills they pledged they would.

Handily they even make all this info easy to find so it's easy to check. Stick to getting your information via headlines though if it suits you.

http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/Bills/576.aspx

teamhurtmore - Member

Joe, I can tell you from first hand experience that STW views Scottish as a race and ban people for making jokes on the specific ground of racism. Silly I know but that's the case

Maybe if you kept your sneering xenophobic jibes to yourself then you wouldn't out yourself as someone to be banned then. Or I suppose it's just 'bants'.

You are a very angry wee man km

@km that's a fair enough point, I was trying to remember the special word for a small burn (river)

The whole picture with regard to the EU has changed as a result of the brexit vote very much in Scotlands favour

@seaso we'll have to disagree here, I think Brexit has scuppered Indy as the EU transition is now impossible, UK will be out before Scotland can even start the UK exit process.

Nothing about me is angry, sorry if that disappoints you. If wee man is a reference to physical stature then nope sorry again, if you are saying I am of little significance or importance then knock yourself out. Unlike you I don't make a hobby out of pretending I am.

Very

seosamh77
I'll leave aside your "feels" based personal comments for now (tho I'd still love a citation for my hatred).

Re: GERS details you asked for.
GERS isn't the spending.
Its the Scottish Governments own figures reflecting the size of the Scottish economy.
Thats the money we would have raised in taxes etc. if Scotland was independent right now.
(It bears repeating that those saying that 10Bn has been stolen or hidden or missed off in some underhand way should talk to Nic about her stats department.)

The graph I asked people to choose bits to chop off is public spending.

Its not my job to provide you with a detailed breakdown of what the spending involves, but it should suffice to say that the wee drop at the top of the graph (in 12-13 13-14 14-15) is austerity.

We know the pain and anguish that caused.

Austerity looks (from the graph) to have led to a drop of 2Bn (70.4 to 68.4) over 6 or 8 years.

Independence would lead to a potential drop in that graph of 10Bn in 1 year

Unless you are really a wizzard, I don't think the detailed breakdown will help with cutting that mount of public spending (schools, hospitals, social care and welfare) with out a lot of pain.

Greekonomics if you like.

Thats why the economic argument "was always mince and is now toast".
(and yes I did just quote myself, because I liked it the first time :0)

Which is where I came in.

For the record I live in Scotland, I love Scotland and [most] Scottish people.
I hate divisive politics based on big lies (including brexit) and thats what the SNP are selling as well.

I'll ask it again.

How big would the economic hit have to be for the SNP to say "hold on lets look at this again in a few years"

Theres a day job to do and they're not doing it.

ETP are you making the mistake of thinking that economics and how you pay for things is important ?

Maybe..... sorry 🙁

Can I have a flag now that I've confessed 🙂

Saltire or Lion?

You lucky you haven't had the Chief jumping up down yet. Still months to go before you get added to the list 😉

So is the Westminster govt incompetent or is it using creative accounting again to disguise oil income?

For a start I don't think you're comparing apples with apples, UK and Norway waters may share a boundary but that certainly doesn't mean the oil production volume and costs are the same. I'm certainly no expert but I would imagine there is a production cost difference due to the differing nature and maturity of the fields across the north sea, and I'm fairly sure they produce more than us as well as having the biggest fields.

Secondly I'm not sure why the suggestion of some kind of government conspiracy or smoke and mirrors, the o&g industry here freely publishes their facts and opinions through many outlets, it's not north korea. You have a very odd understanding of the world.

Interestingly there are only 20 roads and 2 railway lines that cross the England-Scotland border, should be easy enough to control/manage.

bigjim - Member
...Secondly I'm not sure why the suggestion of some kind of government conspiracy or smoke and mirrors, the o&g industry here freely publishes their facts and opinions through many outlets, it's not north korea. You have a very odd understanding of the world.

b r - Member
Interestingly there are only 20 roads and 2 railway lines that cross the England-Scotland border, should be easy enough to control/manage.

Shouldn't be a problem. It's not as if we are likely to turn back refugees from England.

JAMBA

@seaso we'll have to disagree here, I think Brexit has scuppered Indy as the EU transition is now impossible, UK will be out before Scotland can even start the UK exit process.

Quite the wrong way round. Brexit gives an opportunity in that if Scotland declares independence between the triggering of a50 and rUK leaving the EU its much easier and more likely that the EU will find a suitable fudge for Scotland to remain in. This hems Sturgeon in making her choice of when to hold a referendum so its both an opportunity and a curse for her

tjagain - Member
...This hems Sturgeon in making her choice of when to hold a referendum so its both an opportunity and a curse for her

She's definitely keeping her powder dry.

[i]This hems Sturgeon in making her choice of when to hold a referendum so its both an opportunity and a curse for her [/I]

Not sure about hemming her in, read the Daily Mash story and it could easily be her plan, especially as there will be NO good news with Brexit - even Jamba admits it'll take years before/if anything good occurs. So she'll always be on the front foot.

If May gets a good deal (if) and the EZ falls apart (when not if) - what then?

The EZ that is so crucial* to Scotland's future unlike the nasty rUK* will look very different then

(* not true obviously)

TJ I don't see that happenjng at all. It will take years for Scotland to extricate itself from the UK - I really see no fast track option. I just can't see how a not yet independent Scotland can somehow remain in the EU when its not yet out of the UK.

eat_the_pudding - Member

What is your argument here though, you are stating that on day 1 scotland will have dubious finances, no one is disagreeing. I accept that. (brings the question back to specifics, if you want to get into it)

If we need to take an initial hit, bring it, we'll deal with it, I'm not pretending it's going to be all roses.

How big would the economic hit have to be for the SNP to say "hold on lets look at this again in a few years"

I've said many times, I'd rather wait. But simple fact is, there's only going to be one more chance at this. When it comes, I'll take it.

[quote=seosamh77 ]What is your argument here though, you are stating that on day 1 scotland will have dubious finances, no one is disagreeing. I accept that. (brings the question back to specifics, if you want to get into it)
If we need to take an initial hit, bring it, we'll deal with it, I'm not pretending it's going to be all roses.

I'm still not sure all of you saying "we'll deal with it" appreciate just how much it will be like what you put on the roses to make them grow better. That is a huge hole in the finances.

Though more significantly there appears to be some expectation that as if by magic you will fix this hole in the medium term by somehow managing to grow the economy at a far greater rate than any of the other little countries you like to compare yourselves with. There is an awful lot of wishful thinking involved in dismissing the financial problem.

In case it needs pointing out, nobody has yet provided any financial predictions showing how it will be all right without the oil money - all the budget forecasts last time included it as a fundamental part of the budget to enable successful independence. At some point if a second referendum is called then such budgets must be produced - what do you think they are going to look like?

aracer - Member
I'm still not sure all of you saying "we'll deal with it" appreciate just how much it will be like what you put on the roses to make them grow better. That is a huge hole in the finances....

No need to give Sturgeon the referendum at the moment.

Only give Sturgeon the referendum when EU bureaucratic system has been completely broken into pieces not before.

😛

[quote=epicyclo ]Many other countries have managed it. So will we.

Examples of managing a similar situation...

(that's exactly the sort of trite response I'm referring to - heavy on hope, light on any real thought into how you will manage)

aracer - Member
seosamh77 » What is your argument here though, you are stating that on day 1 scotland will have dubious finances, no one is disagreeing. I accept that. (brings the question back to specifics, if you want to get into it)
If we need to take an initial hit, bring it, we'll deal with it, I'm not pretending it's going to be all roses.
I'm still not sure all of you saying "we'll deal with it" appreciate just how much it will be like what you put on the roses to make them grow better. That is a huge hole in the finances.

Though more significantly there appears to be some expectation that as if by magic you will fix this hole in the medium term by somehow managing to grow the economy at a far greater rate than any of the other little countries you like to compare yourselves with. There is an awful lot of wishful thinking involved in dismissing the financial problem.

In case it needs pointing out, nobody has yet provided any financial predictions showing how it will be all right without the oil money - all the budget forecasts last time included it as a fundamental part of the budget to enable successful independence. At some point if a second referendum is called then such budgets must be produced - what do you think they are going to look like?

aracer - Member
epicyclo » Many other countries have managed it. So will we.
Examples of managing a similar situation...

(that's exactly the sort of trite response I'm referring to - heavy on hope, light on any real thought into how you will manage)

aracer - Member

Though more significantly there appears to be some expectation that as if by magic you will fix this hole in the medium

No one is asking the layman to come up with an coherent economic plan - what is being suggested is very complicated.

What is being asked/suggested is an element of critical thought when appraising the false hopes that the likes of the SNP propose - there is no need to follow the Brexshiteers and Trumpettes in blond adulation of false utopias. Delivery on basic issues even with the best structure imaginable is relatively poor and there is not explanation of why they as suddenly going to get better. Good education, health, social services and general well being are not the products of fluff and woolly warm feelings of fake control and sovereignty - there are plenty of lessons on this right now!

Be careful what you wish for.

Joe, I can tell you from first hand experience that STW views Scottish as a race and ban people for making jokes on the specific ground of racism. Silly I know but that's the case

It wasn't STW that set the precedent

http://www.cps.gov.uk/legal/p_to_r/racist_and_religious_crime/

"A racial group means a group of persons defined by reference to race, colour, nationality (including citizenship) or ethnic or national origins."

are we back to denying Scotland is a country again.

This thread boils down to the irrelevant non-voters assuming that uniquely in the world Scots are incapable of running our own country, and are incapable of adjusting to whatever circumstances emerge during the process.

Maybe we should import some experts from the hundreds of countries that have gained independence to advise us.

See? Even a dumbo like me who can't come up with a complete economic plan can think of one solution. I'm sure there's more.

If we're talking about SNP cock ups (seems to be a recurring theme on this thread), it was no accident that TM cast up education in her recent speech.

The Scottish education system is a total disaster, I'm just amazed it's not bigger news.

Given that no one is saying that it just shows the lengths that you have to go to to avoid critical debate. Nicola would be very proud.

@Epic No need, there's plenty of unwanted experts in the rUK.

Save a fortune on transport costs.

teamhurtmore - Member
...What is being asked/suggested is an element of critical thought when appraising the false hopes that the likes of the SNP propose...

And there is the basic flaw in the Unionist case.

They keep ranting on about the SNP this, SNP that.

The SNP is NOT leading us anywhere, it is the expression of a movement that is pushing it. The movement would quickly abandon the SNP the second it was not seen to be pushing for independence and switch to a party that did.

The SNP leadership are well aware of this.

teamhurtmore - Member
Given that no one is saying that it just shows the lengths that you have to go to to avoid critical debate. Nicola would be very proud.

Critical debate? Why does anyone have to justify the self-determination and independence of their country?

piemonster - Member
@Epic No need, there's plenty of unwanted experts in the rUK.

Save a fortune on transport costs.

They'll be too busy extracting the rUK out of the economic mire. Apparently when a country "gets back control" it can no longer function.

For the very simple reason that the real question is what is the best arrangement to maximise the interest of the Scotiish people. I appreciate that this is a bit of a random thought.

Plenty of maiden aunts and unhappy batchleors "enjoy" all the freedom and self determination they want. How many are truly happy?

teamhurtmore - Member
For the very simple reason that the real question is what is the best arrangement to maximise the interest of the Scotiish people. I appreciate that this is a bit of a random thought.

Plenty of maiden aunts and unhappy batchleors "enjoy" all the freedom and self determination they want. How many are truly happy?

If you want an analogy, think of a spouse tied into a relationship with a bitter nasty partner who snaffles her/his pay and spends the family budget buying expensive status toys and partying with mates and then claims there's not enough for basics like feeding the kids.

Divorce looks like a good idea even if it means some temporary hardship.

On the economic case for independence:

To some folk it simply does not matter. Self determination trumps all.

On the actual numbers - no one really knows and a huge amount depends on negotiations and how hardball Westminster plays. One thing we do know is its not ten billion of cuts in the scottish budget tomorrow but there will be tough decisions that need to be taken and its far from an ideal time economically. The timetable is not Sturgeons to set tho.

The SNP will have to make a good credible case economically for independence and find some good answers to the currency questions. Its the ground they will win or lose the referendum on.

Medium to long term Scotland has good economic prospects. Oil is always there as a bonus, we are well placed to take on a leading role in tidal power and even be a power exporter and will also mop up some financial services from London. The EU has just given us a grant for further investment in tidal power

There is simply no logical reason why an independent Scotland could not be a rich country

It's obvious Scotland is going to have a large deficit on independence, it has one already. So does the UK as a whole. No-one really knows how much this would be come independence, it's impossible to tell due to spin on figures from all sides. Proportionally the Scottish deficit is larger than that of the UK as a whole. This is a recent development, it wasn't always the case and there is no reason why it always will be. It comes down to people and how we manage this and work our way out of it using the resources we have to the best of our abilities. Scotland is not going to be any worse at doing this as our rUK colleagues. To suggest otherwise would be ridiculous.

We have different priorities and needs and want to go in different directions politically, there are no longer any other alternatives to independence. After Brexit I cannot see devolution being strengthened, in fact I think there will be a weakening of the devolved powers. This will result in the deficit always being disproportionate and will leave us relying on our UK partners to prop us up. This will then be used, as it is now, as a stick to beat us with (subsidy junkies anyone?) by the ignorant small minded majority that now seems to be in place in England and we will never progress as a nation.

Sure there is uncertainty in independence, there always has been and always will be. What is different now compared to 2014 is that there would be more uncertainty if we stick with the UK and the direction they are heading. Independence isn't going to be a catastrophe, we won't all starve to death or break out in civil war. Worst case scenario is we take a hit short term or even middle term in standards or we get in more debt trying not to, but that will just as likely come as part of UK anyway so what is there to lose?

Its the ground they will win or lose the referendum on.

The independence movement needs a boot up the arse in that regard or they'll just sleepwalk into another defeat by promising everything will be better but not actually saying how.

Spin - Member

The Scottish education system is a total disaster

Is it perfect, no. Does it need improved yes. The sensationalism is just political posturing through, pile of nonsense.