MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
The conference speech next week is going to be EPIC!
binners
Dear god! I’ve just put that Newscast on with all her local radio interviews this morning
It’s absolutely fist-chewingly awful. She’s been invisible for 5 whole days and she re-emigres with THAT?
She’s barely sentient. The personality of a damp flannel with the empathy of a breeze block
Listen and cringe
It defies belief that someone so profoundly stupid could possibly have risen without race to be in the position she’s in
I assume she knows how bad she is at public speaking but then why should she actually care if she's being paid far more to crash the economy than be PM? That isn't stupid ...
I'm still waiting for any convincing answer to why she should actually care if she knows she is either out in a few days or weeks at the best anyway?
She's toast.
People were already telling their children they couldn't afford to take them to football practice
People were already taking second jobs and missing time with their children
People were already living out of food banks
People will be going to community warm rooms this winter to keep warm
100k of mortgages are renewed every month
300k before Christmas
This will be the worst winter and Christmas some people have ever known
She'll be obliterated come spring
The conference speech next week is going to be EPIC!
Assuming she actually turns up!
I’m still waiting for any convincing answer
What is it with people DEMANDING answers to back up others opinions. Often repeatedly if a response isn't forthcoming rapidly. See it a lot in these threads recently, it really winds me up.
An alternative view of the Tory politician who apparently everyone loves.
It does date back to when was actually an MP though.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/16/rory-stewart-boris-johnson
What is it with people DEMANDING answers to back up others opinions. Often repeatedly if a response isn’t forthcoming rapidly. See it a lot in these threads recently, it really winds me up.
I mean in general in the wider world not just this thread.
An alternative view of the Tory politician who apparently everyone loves.
Alternative to what? His voting record has already been well discussed.
Listening to that radio performance I'm beginning to think that was the point where satire died. It's like Arnold Rimmer has taken charge.
I do wish I'd never bought Rory up now, I only linked that video to highlight the opinions of someone who happened to have worked with her.
He is pretty much an irrelevance right now, we're all watching Liz and Kwassi bollox the nation up...
I do wish I’d never bought Rory up now, I only linked that video to highlight the opinions of someone who happened to have worked with her.
He is pretty much an irrelevance right now, we’re all watching Liz and Kwassi bollox the nation up…
I linked to it in the mini-budget thread... However I totally agree. The point was simply the opinion of someone who'd worked with her.
What a brilliant idea it was to ask a couple of thousand elderly retirees in Bournemouth to choose the next PM.
What a brilliant idea it was to ask a couple of thousand elderly retirees in Bournemouth to choose the next PM.
Well KK is planning on bringing back the triple lock so those pensioners will no doubt be pleased.
I do wish I’d never bought Rory up now, I only linked that video to highlight the opinions of someone who happened to have worked with her.
He is pretty much an irrelevance right now, we’re all watching Liz and Kwassi bollox the nation up…
Pointing out that not all Tory politicians are the same and some have very different priorities is a perfectly valid point. It is in fact a point which I have repeatedly made on here and have been castigated for it.
According to some all Tories are equally evil and if you suggest that some are better than others then that practically makes you a Tory, apparently. I personally preferred Boris Johnson to every one of the Tory contenders to replace him.
So yeah, Rory Stewart might well represent a more palatable Tory when compared to some other Tories but unless you believe that the problem isn't the Tory government but who leads it (a perfectly valid opinion imo) then Stewart isn't the solution.
I think emphasising that Stewart was a Tory MP who behaved as you would expect a Tory MP to behave is a reasonable point to make.
Well KK is planning on bringing back the triple lock so those pensioners will no doubt be pleased.
If only the fully understood how close kk/truss came to blowing up their pension funds
Tho I think this lie by Truss could cause a LOT of pain of people think their total bills are capped
https://twitter.com/FullFact/status/1575449057111248903?t=0LYC0qDoxr7_H6IBb5fMxg&s=19
Latest youguv poll has labour on a 33 point lead over tories, it’d be more humane to lead the truss/kwasi group out the back and just shoot them in the head than watch them squirm
Latest youguv poll has labour on a 33 point lead over tories,
Is there a link for that poll?
The latest poll I can find is a Redfield and Wilton poll which gives Labour a 17% lead.
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-51/
Thanks
It's only been one poll but she can't be looking forward to conference.
I think she’ll come down with a dose of covid before the conference and we’ll see a wooden spoon take her place,
Don't worry Liz
Survation looks better*
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1575525813922910210?t=jyqj90RIbhOpi_ksFCSrEA&s=19
*Well relative to yougov
I see that Survation have just released a poll which gave Labour a 21% lead.
It put Labour on 49% which when compared with YouGov's 54% suggests that roughly half of voters are currently backing Labour.
YouGov is very bad for the LibDems imo although when they get round to having their conference they will no doubt receive a bounce.
Wow at that poll. Thats tories down to rump and a massive majority for labour territory is it not?
Snp got 95% of the scots seats on less than that albeit with 3 other parties splitting the non snp vote equally
That’s the equivalent of the Conservatives only getting 69 seats and labour getting over 400
Can't Charlie Windsor call a general election right now?
Surely he must have some constitutional powers to act when the UK is facing a political crisis?
2 tory 500 labour on that poll
🤔😮🤣👌👍
‘I was a Tory MP, but Truss and Kwarteng have convinced me to vote Labour’ | Nick Boles
The only good Tory is a defeated or defected Tory.
Maybe so. But you have to wonder how many current Tory MPs are having more than second thoughts right now about keeping quiet over policies they didn’t really want… all for the greater good of keeping their party in power to deliver… to deliver what?!? There must be some thinking of walking at the next election now. Wish they’d speak up. What are they saying to their constituents? Or are they all hiding…?
nickc
What a brilliant idea it was to ask a couple of thousand elderly retirees in Bournemouth to choose the next PM.
Not really far off the mark.... though the big difference over them voting in Boris is he had the confidence of enough MP's that they would keep their jobs at the next election if he did become leader. [Which proved true - as if nothing else as a Tory MP he had a good record of winning campaigns]
The other big difference is I think Boris expected to be in the position for some time... frankly he ended up done for due to an almost unexpected lie after all the others he'd got away with. His other notable skill was getting away with lying and he practically made it into a joke. Millions of voters must have thought it amusing or made excuses or ???? Essentially Boris had and expected to have plenty of time to feather his nest
I find it hard to believe Truss expected to keep the job for longer than weeks, certainly not months or to the next election ?
She is almost singularly ill equipped .. anyone watching her public speaking or in debates can see that. She looked a complete mess even in the Tory conference... Roy Hattersley looked better on Have I got News and he was represented by a tub of lard. OK.. but not much of an exaggeration she's THAT bad at speaking.
I don't think she's thick.. just really really bad at public speaking, the Tory MP's all know she's not a vote winner ... so she wouldn't need to refurbish the flat or indeed do anything except grab as many feathers for her nest as quickly as possible.
Defeated, defected, or deceased.
That’s the equivalent of the Conservatives only getting 69 seats and labour getting over 400
Unless they've released the source data that's hard to extrapolate? Could be a lot of marginal seats swinging, or a handful of strongholds.
What a brilliant idea it was to ask a couple of thousand elderly retirees in Bournemouth to choose the next PM.
TBH this is a massive benefit to having an elected president, you get the person you voted for, for the full term, unless they get impeached or die, with the caveat that you need mid term elections for the parliament as a check on their power/policies).
If those results translated into the election plus the level of tactical voting you know will happen there wouldn't be many blue mp's.
Would be nice to be rid of the dinosaurs that reside in massively safe seats
Imagine heading into your party conference having just seen a 17 point swing to the opposition & seeing your party poll its lowest ever
Having spent a week saying you won't reverse the policy that did it
Also
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1575531290576662528?t=-DlliwoHZ3cDVPmfs9fSZw&s=19
It will be very approximate as the numbets i saw were but with fptp as you approach 50% you start winning huge numbers of seats and below 25% you only get a handful.
Its similar numbers to the scottish snp landslide
That's today, there's people who haven't twigged exactly how bad this will be for themselves yet. Those numbers will get worse before they get better
https://twitter.com/electionmapsuk/status/1575526882853810192?s=21&t=lVzADZm2ldXI0LmtZnVuUw
Good for snp, good for labour, bad for a united Britain,
What's funny is that all day & right up until 3polls came out at once giving labour a 25 PT average lead
Truss &; KK were insisting they won't back down.... Let's see how long that holds
Good for snp
To lose 12 seats? Why?
You know that point in cartoons where the villain has run off the cliff, the legs are still spinning but the unavoidable fall hasn't kicked in, that's Truss and Kwartang.
To lose 12 seats? Why?
Because it loses the Tory seats in the south of Scotland that they have relied on, and as for the western isles I doubt the shift would be quite as large towards labour
LAB: 498 (+296)
CON: 61 (-304)
Obviously that will never happen but if it were to happen it would imo produce a hugely radical Labour government. With such a massive mandate Starmer would find it impossible to resist pressure for radical change, even if he wanted to. And Labour Party discipline within the PLP would be a nightmare to maintain.
Has she done a load of Local TV stuff this afternoon all to be shown at 6.30 tonight on local news?
You would certainly hope so Ernie but it didn't happen with Blair
I'm calling it now. You heard it here first (ok, maybe not first but I haven't heard anyone saying it yet).
Within the next 6 months there will be a new Tory party leader/PM. The MPs will get around the fact the racist pensioners won't vote for a brown person by giving the choice of a brown person and black person.
The two finalists will be Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch.
The next PM will be Kemi Badenoch.
Badenoch? Makes truss look sensible
Just on the radio, not sure who it was but either Tory MP or ex Tory MP was saying that at this point it's not really how people would vote, it's more a measure right now of 'do you think the government is doing a good job'.
I'm not sure if that makes it any better. Doubling down on this being the right policy, in the face of that opinion, makes a U-turn impossible surely, it would have to be a resignation or continue to see it through. Has any leader ever been sacked during their own conference. Good job it's in Birmingham, you can't get much further from the sea that they'd be chucking her in if they could. And who are the 21% who would still vote for them even now!
I might book a day off to watch the conference speeches live.....
And Labour Party discipline within the PLP would be a nightmare to maintain.
Aye. The main debate would become between the right and left of labour like Manchester council in the 80s
You would certainly hope so Ernie but it didn’t happen with Blair
Even Blair would have struggled justifying a "moderate" line with those figures! I was referring to the impossible to achieve scenario of 61 Tory seats posted above.
Whilst fantasy figures are fun a reality check suggests that we have been in a similar situation before.
In 1990, similarly two years before a general election, Thatcher was so unpopular that opinion polls were giving Labour leads over the Tories not that much different than today:
The poll showed the opposition Labor Party steaming ahead with a 24.5% lead over Thatcher’s Conservatives.
The poll put Labor at 52.5%, gaining three points since its last polls a month ago, while the Conservatives had 28%, down three points.
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1990-04-06-mn-957-story.html
Two years later the Tories won the general election.
The two finalists will be Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch.
The next PM will be Kemi Badenoch.
The script demands that they turn to the First Lord of the Admiralty
Local videos are out on the BBC, total denial of the effect of her daft plan on interest rates and blamed it on world forces, with the BoE have already denied is the real case, although share a part.
It's like me burning my house down by tipping water onto a chip pan fire and then saying we'll, something was better than nothing. Idiots.
What is needed now is a by-election in a safe Tory seat in which the Tory vote disappears and the result forces Tory MPs to move against Truss.
Unfortunately the next by-election will be in West Lancashire which is a safe Labour seat. Last election Labour received over half the votes in West Lancashire so there isn't anything that can happen in the by-election which will spectacularly highlight a meltdown in Tory vote.
The Tories will be able to shrug it off by claiming it is a seat that they will never win and their supporters didn't bother voting because it wasn't a general election and the Tories already have a comfortable majority.
Hats off to Newsthump 😂
****ing 'el that is a seriously red map ^
She'll be getting a visit from the men in grey suits, its you or Kwazy. And it's under the bus you go!
In 1990, similarly two years before a general election, Thatcher was so unpopular that opinion polls were giving Labour leads over the Tories not that much different than today:
It was unpopular policies that patially vanished with Mrs T's demised not out and out fiscal incompetence!
And to think we reckoned Johnson staying would implode the Tories.
I for one am not for the slightest moment counting my chickens. A huge swing towards Labour does not mean too much at this point I’m afraid. Lots of centre ground voters looking out primarily for themselves - it may not take much for the Tories to win them back.
just reversing the policy would probably put them back to their pre-budget %
Just a thought.
A leadership contest before the next election has to happen. Clearly Tory MPs will be sending in their letters right now and will continue to do so. But who would stand? The actions of Truss have upset people so much that I reckon new candidates would distance themselves from her as much as possible, which would mean we'd see candidates as moderate as it is possible to be.
So I think whatever happens now, we'll get a much more moderate government when this lot comes crashing down.
That said, the Tories will have suffered huge reputational damage now.
The conference speech next week is going to be EPIC!
Is it just me that thinks she shares mannerisms / affectations with Sheldon Cooper..? Now I can't unsee it...
I dont think they will replace her. To do so now requires a change of rules. To replace her in a year is too close to the next election. I also doubt moderates would stand as again unless there is a change of rules the membership will pick the most rightwing
Who would want to accept the poisoned chalice anyway and few have any experience of government
Change the rules or leader and the hard right includong their propagsndists in the press cry foul. They have spent years getting their puppet in. They will not let go easily.
I thonk the tories are stuck on the horns of a dilemma and one that is unsolvable.
I think a split is more likely
Maybe the tores will vote down a key part of her agenda and she goes for a back me or face an election VOC?
Its really hard to see a way out for moderates
It could even be the end of the tories
Let's be honest no one in their right mind wants the job so the basket cases that are running the show will be stuck in the job. I can see her putting an add in the paper for a chancellor soon. Stepping down due to poor health is the only way out
just reversing the policy would probably put them back to their pre-budget %
I imagine the problem is that she's spooked the market so much that even if she reversed everything at this point the interest rate will still remain high and mortgages will still cripple people? Can the genie be put back in the bottle?
In 1990, similarly two years before a general election, Thatcher was so unpopular that opinion polls were giving Labour leads over the Tories not that much different than today:
It was unpopular policies that patially vanished with Mrs T’s demised not out and out fiscal incompetence!
Er yeah, that's right - "unpopular policies". Especially one very important taxation policy which was seen by voters as grossly unfair and benefiting the wealthy.
In the four cannons of taxation stated by Adam Smith, an economist which Margaret Thatcher claimed to greatly admire, the number one cannon is "equity" - taxes people have to pay should be proportional to their income.
And if you think fiscal incompetence wasn't an issue and that the UK economy was fine, in comparison to today, in April 1990 inflation was about the same as it is today, the unemployment rate was about 3 times what it is today, and like today the UK was about to enter into a recession, which it did within 6 months.
But none of that is the point. The point I was making was that, for whatever reasons, the opinion polls were very similar to today and yet in the general election two years later the Tories still managed to win.
total denial of the effect of her daft plan on interest rates and blamed it on world forces
https://twitter.com/bloombergradio/status/1575459186661642240?s=21
Liz Truss repeatedly told the BBC that energy bills are capped at £2,500. They are not.
I just wonder if she actually knows how her policy works,althought I did hear her actually say the 'average' bill word in later interviews so someone may have told her.
I reckon it'll be Kemi but I reckon she'll have no-one standing against her, I can't see the tories going thru another farce.
The point I was making was that, for whatever reasons, the opinion polls were very similar to today and yet in the general election two years later the Tories still managed to win.
They changed leader, which you claim they won’t do this time.
Of course, they probably will change leader (assuming her MPs want to stay in parliament past the next election, I suppose many might just give up) which may reduce their losses, but there will be losses. Big losses. Doubt Labour will maintain these leads in the polls, but an 80 seat Tory majority now looks like a blip. A blip caused by a policy that looks increasingly either to have been counter productive for the UK, or at least “done” and no longer the reason to vote Tory that it once was. The Conservatives no longer have the ace card of pretending they are delivering something vital that others might deny the voter… Brexit.
She'll get ousted when the OBR forecast surfaces, then Boris will come to save the day as he gets the big decisions right
Even capped is the wrong terminology.
As I am almost certain that the bills should be higher by a fair whack
And deferral or temporarily subsidised, to be repaid shortly, might help the hard of thinking realise what is going to happen to everyone in the uk.
Trussed up like rotisserie chickens with the prospect of a long poker being shoved somewhere unpleasant is where we are heading.
Makes BJ look like some sort of genius
unless there is a change of rules the membership will pick the most rightwing
Or they do what they did last time, get to the last two and have one of them capitulate so they don't need to waste 2 more months.
I imagine the problem is that she’s spooked the market so much that even if she reversed everything at this point the interest rate will still remain high and mortgages will still cripple people? Can the genie be put back in the bottle?
I'd hypothesise it would end up somewhere in the middle. You could correct it so that the outcome of the bank's in-house and the OBR's modeling was painting the rosiest picture possible for the moment but markets really don't like uncertainty so would be wary of more u-turns or bad decisions.
Ironically Labour being a nailed on certainty might actually stabilise things more than a close run election.
TBH, I dont think anyone thought that she would be quite so entertaining, spectacularly crashing the pound and being responsible for bringing some pension companies to the brink of collapse and causing the mortgage rate to go up and force a load of loans to be withdrawn, this early in in your premiership has to be a bit of a record, whilst trying to deny all culpability although deliberately blocking the reports whilst her buddy sacked the BOE bloke. Let alone the reports that you may have let you m8s in early on your plans.
I just don't know what she can possibly do for an encore.
And we thought Boris's wallpaper was a bit of an extravagance, 3 weeks on the job and she's written blank cheques for billions bailing out her energy buddys profits , I don't think the country can afford to indulge her.
They changed leader, which you claim they won’t do this time.
Eh? What are you talking about Kelvin? How the hell do I know whether the Tories will replace Liz Truss or not?
I would have thought that it is highly likely that they will replace Truss. For me it's the only likely scenario in which they would win the next general election.
The point of my post was to suggest that it is wrong to be complacent as things can change dramatically in politics.
But I don't do predictions, I leave that to others. I merely suggest what might be possible.
Edit: Liz Truss has never been very popular with the Parliamentary Tory Party, iirc only 50 Tory MPs chose her as their first choice. She ended up as one of two candidates put to the membership because of the mechanics of the leadership process. If there hasn't been any serious moves against her by Tory MPs it is only because she hasn't been in the job for even 3 weeks yet. It's way too soon.
Its OK,she's having an emergency meeting,everything's going to be fine.
don't panic
How the hell do I know whether the Tories will replace Liz Truss or not?
I dont think they will replace her.
🤷🏻♂️
She's toast
KK will have to go first
even if they get the OBR to cook the books it's all too late, the die was cast the second the BOE slapped it's wedge down to save the pension industry. the doorstep chat with older voters for labour candidate got very easy "you know that Mrs Truss tried to make you destitute."