MegaSack DRAW - This year's winner is user - rgwb
We will be in touch
The review of the anti-obesity regulations is a bit of a concern to, I'm assuming we'll end up with MacDonald's (or whoever promises Coffey a board seat) running catering for the NHS.
US unemployment numbers announced yesterday were worse than expected; forecast that the fed will increase base rate by 75 bip next week.
This will impact uk economy and likely that BoE will follow.
trussonomics are all over the place and we won't know the market reaction until the promised 'fiscal event'.
One thing is certain - confusion and uncertainty will dominate and that's bad news for markets.
but that’s not the bounce truss will have been hoping for, having just promised to spend >£150bn on energy prices fix
Well the YouGov poll 5 days before that one, which was before Truss became PM, gave Labour a 15% lead, it's now dropped to 10% so it does suggest a possible Truss bounce.
Obviously overturning a 15 point lead within 5 days and in one go is very unlikely. It remains to be seen how things pan out but I very much doubt that Truss will be disappointed in reducing the Labour lead in YouGov polls by a third in 5 days.
I don't think it'll be a linear trend. The bounce is just that and it will happen straight away. It will evaporate if she screws it up.
Maybe not but these things tend to be very much linear - it's hard to get a lot of people to all change their minds in a short period of time, these things are generally more gradual.
For example it is generally accepted that if a government has huge majority/share of the vote that opposition won't be able to overturn that majority and form a government in just one general election, it will take a couple. Certainly UK political history shows that tends to be the case, the only exception in modern history is 1945 and that was with the equally exceptional historical background of the end of a global war.
I'm not predicting anything but I do think slashing the Labour lead by "only" a third in 5 days won't cause Truss to lose any sleep. The new energy price cap was due October 1st, I expect further possible popularity benefits for the Tories as the appeal of a two year price freezes cap sinks in. Of course there will still be plenty of opportunities for the Tories to screw up, and no doubt they will, but I think personal blame directed at Truss will take a while, and how well Labour are able to exploit that remains to be seen.
I think molgrips might be right.. It's normal to expect a blip like this... Give it a few months 'till she starts stuffing it up.. She is just riding a wave at the moment.
I suspect a lot of it will have to do with how the press treat her in the next few months.
Johnson was pursuing this policy earlier in the year, before his fall.
The Government is coming under flack for considering tearing up rules on bankers’ bonuses. According to a leaked letter from the Prime Minister’s chief of staff Steve Barclay to Chancellor Rishi Sunak, this is part of a package of “deregulatory measures to reduce the overall burden on business”, take advantage of Brexit and attract firms to the UK
The continuation of removing all the safeguards introduced after financial crisis continues then. What else are they plotting while the country is officially in mourning? Expect the return of Poor Houses by the spring.
this is part of a package of “deregulatory measures to reduce the overall burden on business”, take advantage of Brexit and attract firms to the UK
Singapore on Thames.
They want to turn us into a tax haven for dodgy international capital with a deregulated sweatshop economy bolted onto it
This was the whole point of Brexit
It’s no great surprise that Truss is now an enthusiast for this. There’s nothing like the zeal of the convert
Average bounce for a new leader is 6 pts ( according to guardian)
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1570086818925916162?t=P2ks_81BhGvA6SBI4S8uUw&s=19
With all the queen stuff clogging up the airwaves it's hard to say much really
This was the whole point of Brexit
It’s no great surprise that Truss is now an enthusiast for this. There’s nothing like the zeal of the convert
Given the main rate of corporation tax has been wildly lower than it is now from 2013.
Ireland's corp tax sits at 12.5% in the EU.
Brexit has nothing to do with it.
Of course it doesn’t.
You keep telling yourself that as they set about their shredding of workers rights, environmental controls and food standards… oh, sorry… I meant ‘bonfire of red tape’
It’s all about deregulation and a race to the bottom now we’re ‘free of EU bureaucracy’
Just have a look at their plans for Freeport’s for a taste of what’s coming, courtesy of ‘the opportunities of Brexit’
'Shredding workers' rights'? Kwarteng is considering lifting the caps on bankers' bonuses (limited to 2 x income) to 'stimulate the economy'. I can only imagine he's talking about house-price inflation, Colombian export markets and the yacht economy.
Just have a look at their plans for Freeport’s for a taste of what’s coming, courtesy of ‘the opportunities of Brexit
You're the one that called it a tax haven. Might be handy to look up a few taxation rates when making your case.
People form the UK blindly buy from countries that could easily be on sweatshop side of things.
Because they like cheap stuff.
It's already a fact of globalisation.
People form the UK blindly buy from countries that could easily be on sweatshop side of things.
While this is a good point, driving another nation (ours) to become a sweatshop and tax haven state is not a good thing. Two wrongs don't make a right.
Truss & Kwertang have both made it clear that there's lots of pesky legacy EU workers rights that are holding back Britannia
https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/48-hour-week-could-reviewed-100705694.html
Sweatshops are all part of unchaining ourselves
Truss & Kwertang have both made it clear that there’s lots of pesky legacy EU workers rights that are holding back Britannia
But the link you provide says the complete opposite. It quotes the general secretary of the TUC Frances O'Grady as saying:
"Leading Conservatives – including (Business Secretary) Kwasi Kwarteng – repeatedly promised to make Britain the best place in the world to work and to enhance workers’ rights."
O'Grady claims that Kwarteng lied as he promised to enhance workers rights.
Quite
Of course he lied. They have already said the working time directive is going to be removed and right to strike curtailed
O’Grady claims that Kwarteng lied as he promised to enhance workers rights.
Whoa! Hold on there!
Kwasi is absolutely delivering on his promise, he never said he'd enhance All worker's rights did he? And Bankers are technically Workers... So I think the Truss Government have gotten off to a flying start; faced with the COL crisis, strikes across all sorts of areas, and various workers dealing with real terms pay cuts they're working hard to remove the limits on (certain) workers pay.
People might foolishly think it's that Nurses, Fire fighters, Teachers or Social workers need their pay and conditions enhancing, but they never think of the poor put upon Bankers do they?
[shakes head in disgust]
Of course he lied. They have already said the working time directive is going to be removed and right to strike curtailed
This is getting confusing - did he lie or is he delivering on his promises? Someone should tell the TUC as they definitely ought to know.
Kwarteng is considering lifting the caps on bankers’ bonuses (limited to 2 x income) to ‘stimulate the economy’.
That's not going to go down well.
did he lie or is he delivering on his promises?
Can't it be both?
He was Business secretary for over a Year before he became Chancellor, He even did a stint as Brexit Secretary under May; He can't really claim rampant deregulation and chipping away at worker's rights is a concept that never occurred to him, He was up to his neck in it before he was even offered his current post...
The real question is which promises? which lies? And to whom?
That’s not going to go down well…………
………… with people who already have a problem with bankers bonuses. Mr and Mrs Workingclasstory won’t care a fig.
That’s not going to go down well.
Which I'm sure is the only reason why Johnson ruled it out.
However, Johnson told reporters the government would not go further in relaxing the rules for the finance industry, which is still unpopular among the public for causing the 2007-2009 global financial crisis.
It’s certainly an interesting policy to put forward as a priority in the present financial climate
interesting policy to put forward as a priority in the present financial climate
Kwarteng would argue that is precisely why it should be considered:
Ministers are known to be concerned that the City could lose out to other financial centres. The source noted that Paris is offering 30% income tax rates to attract investment banking professionals. They said the chancellor believes that UK tax revenues could be boosted if the City can attract more banking talent.
And apparently it would reduce costs for banks:
He is said to be sympathetic to City complaints that EU-wide rules imposed after the crash to cap bonuses leads to higher basic salaries, which increases costs for banks.
We really do live in a society with ****ed up priorities.
which increases costs for banks
The current regulations aren’t in place to reduce employment costs for banks, they are there to reduce perverse rewards for high risk behaviour… because of the role of that behaviour in the banking crisis that resulted in government bailouts, loans and the societal costs still with us well over a decade later.
Which I’m sure is the only reason why Johnson ruled it out.
Despite the headline, he didn’t rule it out. He just said they were not currently doing it (despite the leaked evidence that they were preparing for it in government). Better to wait for a time when the public are paying less attention, perhaps…
Despite the headline, he didn’t rule it out.
Have a word with Reuters they claim that he did, beyond the headlines :
when asked if he was considering relaxing the rules. "We're not doing that".
I call that ruling it out. Whether he was lying is another matter. But he didn't lift the bonus cap and he did rule out doing so.
Jeepers Ernie. What Johnson said was certainly not ruling it out. Not doing it is now. Never doing it is ruling it out
Kwartang of course was lying. Remember brittania unchained?
Kwartang of course was lying.
Why are you telling me that? It was me that drew attention to Frances O'Grady claim that Kwarteng had lied!
As for Johnson everyone knows that he is a liar. I am quite simply pointing out that he ruled out lifting the bankers bonus cap, and however much he might have wanted to he didn't.
What Johnson said yesterday means little to the Johnson of today. No bankers bonus yesterday, but bankers bonus today, no problem. Probably got a Churchill misquote he could whip out to distract, if questioned. I'm not sure Liz Truss comes armed with those, but as Continuity Johnson then doing the about face on any and all previous announcements will be de rigeur.
Lizzie track record on screaming, full 180 handbrake turns make Johnson look like a rank amateur
If you’re looking at people who’ve travelled the idealogical road from remain supporter to advocate of the hardest of hard Brexits then their number consist of Liz Truss, Lord Frost and… erm… no… that’s it.
These are my beliefs and if you don’t like them then I have others…
Just more Johnson. Not a single firmly held belief in anything other than their own advancement
In case you missed it today, in all your grief, Truss has reiterated that the UK will still not be instigating the customs checks required by the withdrawal agreement, so we’re still very much heading for a full blown trade war with the EU.
Oh and she’s sacked Zac Goldsmith as environment minister In whats expected will be an downgrade to UK animal welfare standards. A nodding dog will replace him who couldn’t give a shit about any of that green crap
Good old Brexit eh?
The cluster- that just keeps on *ing us!
means little to the Johnson of today.
Erm, Johnson isn't PM today. I'm happy to blame him for what he's responsible for but it's stretching it a bit to blame him for what the present PM is doing or is intending to do.
So far in the few days that Truss has been in office there is obviously little that anyone can go on, but going by the makeup of her Cabinet and little clues such as the suggested lifting of bankers bonus caps, it doesn't bode well for those who might have hoped that her premiership would represent an improvement over Johnson's.
Sadly imo it looks as if the opposite might be true. But next Friday's mini budget will obviously be hugely revealing in that respect.
I have long considered that Truss would be a significantly worse PM than Johnson, in terms of the effect of a Tory government on the lives of ordinary people, not in terms of integrity, but I am actually becoming even more pessimistic as I am starting to believe that she might be idealogically driven to some degree.
I had always assumed that as self-serving careerist like Johnson she would not in anyway be idealogically driven. Indeed even more than Johnson she appears to be a political chameleon who adapts to whatever surrounding she finds herself in - anti-monarchy/pro-monarchy, LibDem/Tory, anti-brexit/pro-brexit, even Johnson can't match that impressive record.
But the apparent economic direction of some of her policies seem to owe more to idealogical committment than a real evidence backed analysis, and even if they likely to be unpopular with voters. Banker's bonus a case in point.
She’s just an empty vessel for the ERG to shout their demands into.
They hold all the power. Brexit and Johnson saw to that. There’s isn’t so much an ideology, more a cult. Now they’ll tell Lizzie when to jump and she’ll ask how high. In exchange for the job title she’ll be more than happy to bring in hardline policies even her predecessor would have balked at
She’s going to make Boris Johnson look like a socialist
I had always assumed that as self-serving careerist like Johnson she would not in anyway be idealogically driven.
I think this is a widely held but unfair view. Mark Littlewood of the IEA was an exact contemporary of Liz Truss and fellow LibDem, he wrote an illuminating, and persuasive, article in the Telegraph on her explaining how her journey is pretty consistent with her beliefs and it is the LibDems that have changed.
She’s just an empty vessel for the ERG to shout their demands into.
Yeah I know that is a widely held view but what's in it for her? After all she's got the top job now and I'm sure that winning the next general election is what her ego now demands. Introducing unpopular measures such as removing banker's bonus caps during a cost of living crises isn't going to help achieve that. And it's hard to imagine that Johnson would do something that daft - I know that it's popular to dismiss Johnson as an idiot but the one talent he had/has is his ability to read the public mood, that is the only real reason for his successful political career.
Still none of that really matters - whether Truss is her own woman or an empty vessel for the ERG makes very little difference. The consequences of her policies is what matters.
Mark Littlewood, Institute of Economic Affairs, The Telegraph ?, sounds legit to me, move along now.
Mefty
Yeah much of what you say rings true to me - not in the telegraph but elsewhere I've read that she was very much a free market LibDem, until this bit : "it is the LibDems that have changed", which totally baffles me.
When Truss joined the LibDems it was a social democratic party, sure it had a right-wing but it also had a left-wing, overall it was social democratic.
Yes since then the LibDems have changed, but they have become far more Tory-like embracing neo-liberalism, ffs they even formed a coalition with the Tories!
it is the LibDems that have changed”, which totally baffles me.
I reread it and my recollection was faulty, I inadvertently misrepresented him.
I inadvertently misrepresented him.
Misrepresented who? Who is "him"?
I totally agree the LibDems have changed, but I don't think that is the reason why Liz Truss joined the Tories.
From the time Liz Truss joined the LibDems until 1996 when she joined the Tories the LibDems were led by Paddy Ashdown, nothing happened during that period which suggests the LibDems changed in any significant way. So presumably it was Liz Truss who changed.
Edit : Having reread myself I now suspect you meant that you had misrepresented Mark Littlewood. Confusing!
So presumably it was Liz Truss who changed..
A career politician with no ethics or morals ?
... Say it ain't so!
I don't think this has anything to do with the libdems or the conservatives. It's all about lizz truss..
Yeah I know that is a widely held view but what’s in it for her?
Well, she's nailed on for the lucrative speaking gigs after her PM job is over. And a nice cushy number at one of her 'sponsors' companies doing a couple of hours a year for miliions no doubt.
And I'm guessing she's so full of herself that she p[ossibly believes the country will accept the BS shes spouting and vote her in again next time as long as she chucks in a quick income tax cut just before the election. Tories have had all the luck recently being able to hide their disasters behind covid, Ukraine, Liz etc. so it might not take much to keep her in power, though you've gotta think all he spinning plates are going to hit the deck at some point.
Well, she’s nailed on for the lucrative speaking gigs after her PM job is over.
Hmm.. What's she gonna talk about...?
Selling yorkshire tea to China?
How disgusting French cheese is?
PMSL 😀
Maybe she'll talk about opening up new pork markets..
S****.
She could set herself up as a political escort, by all accounts she’s had enough practice throughout her career.
Ooooophh!
Hahaha 😀
Fracking Now Safe.
Energy Crisis Solved.
Hurrah For Liz.
It's okay... she's solved the problem of falling sterling as well... under $1.14... I can't remember it ever being that low before. Confidence inspiring...
(Bits of) Britannia Unchained?
We here seem to be included in this return to the Victorian era.
Truss has akso given up pretending that there will be a US trade deal finally accepting what was obvious to anyone with half a brain
It sounds like patience with the UK is coming to its natural end in Washington.
I would imaging that today Liz will be sat like a naughty schoolgirl while the Americans tell her, in words of less than 2 syllables so that even she can understand, to pack in all the shit with her weekly threat to trigger article 16 and instead sort out instigating the UK's legal obligations under the withdrawal agreement it signed. In short: stop ****ing about!
Obviously, having willingly made herself hostage to the ERG and having promised them she'll trigger article 16 and give them their longed for trade war, this leaves her (and us) in an impossible position. Like most things Brexit-related this will no doubt deliver the worst of all worlds
Like most things Brexit-related this will no doubt deliver the worst of all worlds
Leadership election next year?
Only if she disobeys or crosses the erg/ brittania unchained / Atlantic bridge loons but it looks likely that she won't from what we see so far. She looks like she is going to do as she is told
Looks like Mad Lizzies ‘plan’ is to borrow more and more money in order to give further tax cuts to people who don’t really need them, in the desperate hope that it generates some form of economic growth
It’s never worked in the past, but you never know… it might work this time
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1572194418282594309?s=21&t=FnaMX_W4RY_ImVsw9Vjssg
There is no evidence of this having worked. Everyone knows the poor spend all their money plus a bit and the rich don't. To pretend otherwise is a bare faced porky. It really looks like shock doctrine, scorched earth, Thatcherite nonsense and squeaky Starmer says....?
We are now just being plundered by the ERG and their corporate backers.
squeaky Starmer says….?
There is nothing new about the Tory fantasy of trickle-down economics
[ at only PMQs Truss has held so far ]
Disappointed no one has mentioned the moment of genius when Australian news didn't have a clue who Liz Truss was when she arrived at the funeral yesterday. Can't seem to link at work.
She has an awful lot of presence and gravitas does Liz
Listening to an interview on the radio with her justifying scrapping the cap on bankers bonuses is like listening to that weird woman in accounts explaining why she's rearranged the stationary cupboard so that the post it notes are more accessible
Just saw the news where the Queen Vampire's economic plan is based on banker bonuses.
Phase 1: collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: World domination
Looks like Mad Lizzies ‘plan’ is to borrow more and more money in order to give further tax cuts to people who don’t really need them, in the desperate hope that it generates some form of economic growth
It’s never worked in the past, but you never know… it might work this time
It depends.
Borrowing - for the hundredth time is not borrowing but increasing spending and then issuing bonds afterwards to match that the deficit. A normal operation.
The issue is Tories are shit at spending for the wider population.
If any government is to make a better job of the country they will absolutely have to spend which will mean (establishment illiteracy) they will have to 'borrow' (i.e issue bonds.)
The US has just run a monthly surplus and has absolutely put the stock market on the floor because money is being sucked out of the wider economy.
Trickle-down economics is linked to just about every large Western government. It's not going to work until the lower income levels get money to spend which means massive government spending (borrowing.)
Balancing the books needs to be off the table.
It's interesting that modern governments are feeding neoliberalism with more neoliberalism - but using the state more overtly.
The state is the tool, operated by tools.
There is no evidence of this having worked. Everyone knows the poor spend all their money plus a bit and the rich don’t. To pretend otherwise is a bare faced porky. It really looks like shock doctrine, scorched earth, Thatcherite nonsense and squeaky Starmer says…
He says nothing because he's linked to the same sort of economic model but with balancing the books on his plate which in my opinion will be way worse.
There will be no surplus money going into the economy. Just like your Uncle giving you no treat money.
Aunty Liz giving your rich cousin some money to spend or Uncle Starmer giving everyone nothing.
Labour need to pop up with a big big plan.
Here comes the little bounce which everyone prematurely thought wasn't going to happen.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1572254259042738177?t=xfXabeVldH_4gxbRKNzV1A&s=19
In the interests of fairness apparently there was an unrelased poll last week showing the biggest Labour lead since July 2017 of 46. So the swing back is immense - since the energy support.
I'd be very surprised if Dizzy Lizzy doesn't catch up in the medium term and then once we get some bad economic figures (because let's face it the BoE haven't a clue.) She will tank.
Medium term though inflation is going to correct itself (it always needed a couple of years) - and the BoE will claim they've fixed things whilst making everyone poorer.
It depends how the recession has taken hold by then though with people having to pay more for the economy to function because of debt slavery.
There's some big economic data coming out of the USA today. With a widely expected .75 fed increase. These increases are shaping economic decisions and creating havoc.
We tend to follow them in increases.
Just saw the news where the Queen Vampire’s economic plan is based on banker bonuses.
Fine line between "trickle down" and "pissing on"
Reports she's planning on cutting Stamp Duty to "aid growth by encouraging people to move". Surely this is some kind of elaborate joke?
It’s like 1980’s policy Tourette’s
Democratic nations! You too can replace your head of government with a brand new Margaret Thatcher Edition Speak and Spell (TM). Few voters will notice! Freeing up valuable time for your important ministers to continue funnelling government money to their mates with little to no scrutiny. Satisfaction guaranteed or your* money back!
* (technically, it'll be the voters money, so win win win)
Did she not learn that the Laffer curve says tax cuts only deliver positive results when taxation is at 50% (some say 70%) or above?
To have your economic model condemned by someone like Biden is quite something. This really does seem calamitous.
I'm still waiting for my trickle down from 10 years ago I assume it will result in my leg getting wet and slightly warm after being financially pissed on by the top 10%
Reports she’s planning on cutting Stamp Duty to “aid growth by encouraging people to move”. Surely this is some kind of elaborate joke?
I imagine her house building backers are getting twitchy?
She can cut what she wants, with interest rates rising and people starting to realise house prices 'may' drop back, who's going to move? Plenty of people I know are sitting tight, waiting to see how things develop, ourselves included. Oh, and selling of private lets (not us, far too skint for that!).
Reports she’s planning on cutting Stamp Duty to “aid growth by encouraging people to move”. Surely this is some kind of elaborate joke?
Unfair. It's not that elaborate.
Struggling with the cost of living? Why not pay thousands for conveyancing, surveys and moving costs? Don't worry, we'll cover the stamp duty.
Perfect timing for Liz to have to meet Joe Biden after he condemned trickle-down economics.
Officials have not put an overall price tag on the latest subsidy to firms as the ultimate cost will depend on what happens to the wholesale market price between October and April, when the support expires.
So uncosted and without limit then. What will Labour's response to that be?
Once again the champions of the free-market rely on socialism to save them from the failures of their free-market.
And Truss is proving to be a poor Thatcherite - I am sure that the Iron Lady would have been prepared to see unemployment climb to over 3 million without flinching.
As Thatcher would say: "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money"
She will tank
There are loads of things stacked against the country and the majority of the people in it, and only her skills preventing calamity. So yeah she will tank. The writing's on the wall, tbh, you cannot run a country like this for long.
Inflation will of course come down as prices flatten, but prices won't come back down and wages won't go up because people don't want inflation to keep getting worse. So nearly everyone will still be poorer than they were come the next GE.
Once again the champions of the free-market rely on socialism to save them from the failures of their free-market.
And Truss is proving to be a poor Thatcherite
She's a money printer. Trouble is the money is being directed to the wrong people. Socialism for the rich, plain and simple. Should be an open goal for Labour but once again they can't see it, and they're positioning themselves as the party poopers who grumble in the corner that all this largesse is unaffordable and irresponsible instead of promising to throw open the party to all the people who aren't invited.
BillMC
Full MemberDid she not learn that the Laffer curve says tax cuts only deliver positive results when taxation is at 50% (some say 70%) or above?
Or, more importantly, that the Laffer curve was made up specifically to give an excuse to cut taxes. It's not based on observation or measurement, has never been seen to work in the wild, and literally every time a laffer curve enthusiast brings it out they always without fail claim that we're already past the laffer point and that any cut will give a positive result. It's not economics, it's a purpose built right wing fantasy.
Any “evidence” to back it up can usually be shown to be moving money from before ‘till after a change of tax regime (or the other way around), and disappears when taking a 5 year or longer look at the tax revenue figures. Announcing tax changes can being forward, or delay, decisions that expose large value funds to tax.