[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

@jambalaya, I think we're saying the same thing. Perhaps instead of "advanced mathematics" I should have said "marketing" ?

75-100

Yep.

1 last night to enjoy the tories sweating the polls ...........

has cranbery gone quiet?, he was all over the corbyn threads gloating about his labour membership, bet he was bricking it when he saw that yougov projection with a 1% difference........

Polling companies are not paid based upon whether the poll truns out to have been correct

We would all agree that they are not 100% accurate but neither is your statement

Obviously the manner in which they reflect reality is a factor on whether anyone will pay them for their services its quite clearly their main selling factor,

I don't think it's obvious at all.

What proportion of people read a headline saying "YouGov predicts XYZ landslide" and then actually go back and check YouGov's past polling record (insert name of favourite polling company) ?

People like fivethirtyeight do, and journalists do, but they're not the target audience anyway, so who cares?

Yougov tend to slightly over estimate Labour as I recall.

@oldnpasit it, ok I misunderstood apologies.

it gets 93% of election results right - i am assuming that is broadly right for the winners/the right party- no idea within what % point

Given this the claims they are just writing headlines is BS
the claim they are not perfect/always accurate is correct

jambalaya - Member

I'm offline tomorrow , I'm sure the world will keep on turning

More Tory lies........
😉

Jamba - care to explain to me how polling works again? I wish to be impressed by your universal knowledge.

I'm feeling a little twitchy about comments in an area where my father was one of the UK experts, given he's very unwell at the moment and it isn't going to get any better.

yougov seat estimates. https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/ suggest it could be possible to keep the tories out, theoretically. Think there´s something new they are trying with the methodolgy behind their maths here though, so fairly experimental in their approach, remains to be seen if it plays out.

fairly wide confidence intervals if you hover over the seats though.

I read earlier that yougov dont account for low youth turnout (which seems odd) so its probably Maybot all the way

Wow... that yougov seat estimate site says nick clegg is going lose his seat to labour. Wel he's my mp and l I'm voting labour rather than green this time so maybe that's possible but it's a huge change if it is. It's the only non labour seat round here and was Tory prior to being lib dem...(pre 1992)

Jamba?

Let's be honest.... nobody has got a bloody clue what's going to happen. Check out tomorrows headlines in the Tory press. They certainly don't! They're bricking it and desperate!

Those pesky voters keep playing silly buggers with this whole democracy lark at the moment, don't they?

If Corbyn has done anything - and prior to 6 weeks ago he'd done less than nothing - it's been a joy to watch him put the fear of God up the Maybot, the Tory party and their media attack gods. That smug, arrogant, complacent 'huge landslide' 20 point poll lead certainly seems like ancient history now! 😆

[quote=kimbers ]I read earlier that yougov dont account for low youth turnout (which seems odd) so its probably Maybot all the way

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/

not true

Take our most recent poll. After we had weighted our sample, taken account of how likely people say they are to vote, and weighted down the answers of those people who didn’t vote last time, we were left with a sample that implies turnout of 51% among people under 25 and 75% among people aged 65+; a turnout gap of 24 points between young and old.

Looking at estimates from past elections from the House of Commons library, in 2015 the turnout gap between young and old was 35 points, in 2010 it was 23 points, in 2005 it was 36 points. In other words, we’re showing a smaller gap than in 2015, but similar to 2010 and not one that we think is totally unrealistic if Jeremy Corbyn has enthused younger people.

the posts accepts pollsters are using new models so no one is sure which one will turn out to be the most accurate

agree that corbyn has done a great deal to energise the electorate it remains to be seen if he has had any impact on the PLP.

She may be gone shortly in any case - her base are not impressed and neither it appears are her MPs... leaking this story this evening

Why Theresa May Could Be Damaged Even If She Wins U.K. Election

[url] https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-07/why-theresa-may-could-be-damaged-even-if-she-wins-u-k-election [/url]

My parents would vote for a gerbil if it was a Tory and they're not sure about May at all and given that it's the Tory activists like them who select the MPs who then vote for the leader, they will make their feelings known if they're not happy with her...

So one possibility is they'll shift May at some point either depending on the results of this election or the path of the Brexit negotiations.

If they do, you'll know that the Tory party clearly only care about their own needs and sod actually leading the country through a crisis, and we'll also be the laughing stock of the world, losing two Prime Ministers in a matter of a year or so over what is essentially an internal madness about Europe, dragging the whole country through their own internal schism

If Corbyn has done anything - and prior to 6 weeks ago he'd done less than nothing - it's been a joy to watch him put the fear of God up the Maybot, the Tory party and their media attack gods. That smug, arrogant, complacent 'huge landslide' 20 point poll lead certainly seems like ancient history now!

Effect of the media being forced to give equal time to both sides during a campaign?

https://theconversation.com/broadcast-impartiality-rule-has-helped-labour-to-achieve-biggest-poll-shift-since-1945-78949

Effect of the media being forced to give equal time to both sides during a campaign?

I wonder how different the UK would be if we had a more neutral press. More balanced social views, generally more global in our outlook, less bigoted, less divided, remaining in the EU etc?

Hopefully social media will kill the nastier elements of our press and remove their influence from our national conversation...

i have always found it strange how regulated the tv and radio is and yet how free to print total BS the "free " press is

i think they should be governed by the same rules and they can have positions but what they say has to be grounded in fact rather than polemic and diatribe

i think they should be governed by the same rules and they can have positions but what they say has to be grounded in fact rather than polemic and diatribe

Which is what Leveson is supposed to move us towards and look what May wants to do with that...

It's very very hard not to be cynical about whether the UK really is a paragon of a liberal democracy or just a pretend one...

Thank God for social media.

I think it is equally capable of making us all live in an echo chamber and only read/see the "news" we agree with.

sun sitting on the impartiality fence again [img] [/img]

Well I wouldn't expect anything else from the Sun.. there is a reason the billionaire media moguls are on the side of the Tory party and it has nothing to do with the national interest.

I think that front page deserves a complaint to IPSO (for all the good it will do one May opens up "freedom of the press" and throws Leveson out).

That cover tells of just how rattled they are. This was meant to be a stroll, wasn't it? No need for any of this? Easy.....

Whatever happens tomorrow, it seems the democratic debate has moved in a direction that a foreign (booooooo!!!) billionaire tax avoider doesn't like very much

Oh.....

[img] [/img]

I am expecting a disappointing result - 80 - 100 majority.

I am looking forward to once again realising I am in a minority in this country and realising most people on this rock (and planet it seems) disagree with my views.

Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years

Or, more succinctly:

Looking forward to having my faith in humanity hoofed in the slats again.

Well it will make Australian PM swap seem more resonable. Anyone work for Pickfords around London?

[url= http://newsthump.com/2017/06/07/isis-supporters-planning-to-wreak-havoc-on-uk-by-voting-tory/ ]ISIS to claim credit for Tory Victory[/url]

The Tory party appears to have mixed feelings about this new intelligence.

“Well, on the one hand, it is troubling news,” said a spokesperson for the party earlier.

“On the other hand, votes are votes, and we’ll take anything that helps us cling to power, so we welcome our new IS supporters. Death to the left-wing infidels!”

Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years

Small consolation that you don't agree with/aren't? fooled by Murdoch or Dacre

Vote early, vote often and vote Labour.

Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years

Being on the losing side isn't a guarantee of being on the wrong side.

Would you really want to be on the same team as the Daily Mail and Express? I'd take a lifetime of "losing" before that!

[quote=kimbers ] Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years
Small consolation that you don't agree with/aren't? fooled by Murdoch or Dacre

Yes, it seems that independent thought and the ability to analyse information for motivation, bias and veracity are also in a minority in this country.

[quote=piemonster ]Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years
Being on the losing side isn't a guarantee of being on the wrong side.
Would you really want to be on the same team as the Daily Mail and Express? I'd take a lifetime of "losing" before that!

It's like being knocked off your bike by a car driver who made a mistake. You might be right but you're still in hospital and they're at home making up lies to their insurance company about what happened. While munching oven chips with gravy. Hospital food sucks.

Well I've put my x the box, futile gesture that it is!

The only thing that, as always, this election will show is the antiquated and undemocratic voting system that we have. Unfortunately we blew our chance to change that.

Cassetteboy vs Theresa May

I had to sit with my brexit loving tory voting in laws at the weekend and listen to them moaning about how much food had gone up.
They are notoriously penny pinching and I actually sat there and smiled.
You voted for it you ignorant ****s.

i have always found it strange how regulated the tv and radio is and yet how free to print total BS the "free " press is

I guess it's because TV is beamed into homes without any control. Whereas a newspaper is a go out and purchase scenario.

The Sun are simply there to sell papers, they'll support whichever party they think will win.

dragon - Member
The Sun are simply there to sell papers, they'll support whichever party they think will win.

[img] [/img]

I had to sit with my brexit loving tory voting in laws at the weekend and listen to them moaning about how much food had gone up.
They are notoriously penny pinching and I actually sat there and smiled.
You voted for it you ignorant ****.

But.... but... they've taken back control.

The election campaign coverage has been so all-encompassing, and then with the terror attacks, that 'Brexit' seems to have become a sort of abstract concept.

But now I'm thinking 'Shit! This is when it really all does go seriously tits up!".

May is going to win. And we'll literally be diving straight into Brexit negotiations. But she, and the team of idiots around her, are so obviously ill-equipped to deal with this massive incoming shitstorm, that for the first time in my life I'm wondering if I need to start looking to a future somewhere else other than this country