[Closed] Is May about to call an election?

Voted in every election since I was 18 in 1980 but the first time I voted for a winner was when I was 35, in the 97 devolution referendum.

yourguitarhero - Member

Been on the wrong side of almost every election and referendum for the last 7 years

Losing side maybe but that doesn't mean wrong, any more than winning a vote makes you right. Obvious Godwin but there's plenty of people out there who'd have switched their vote to NSDAP in 32 and patted themselves on the back for winning

So, what are our definitions of success/failure going to be?

For the Tories it's a high bar to start with, a win isn't enough, I reckon that a majority of less than about forty will be seen as a huge failure for Theresa and her leadership of the party.

For Labour, what demonstrates failure for Corbynite/Leftist rather than Centrist/Blairite policies? What happens if, for example, they win less seats but a bigger vote share, will people cling on to that as an endorsement of radical leftist policies?

I reckon that a majority of less than about forty will be seen as a huge failure for Theresa and her leadership of the party.

Anything close is a voctory for Corbyn's lead but I'd suggest he needs to be steering towards the next candidate at the next election taking it hard to the Tories in opposition.

For the Tories it's a high bar to start with, a win isn't enough, I reckon that a majority of less than about forty will be seen as a huge failure for Theresa and her leadership of the party.

For Labour, what demonstrates failure for Corbynite/Leftist rather than Centrist/Blairite policies? What happens if, for example, they win less seats but a bigger vote share, will people cling on to that as an endorsement of radical leftist policies?

So, what are our definitions of success/failure going to be?

who cares the government always gets in 😉

more important is dogs at polling stations !

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For the Tories it's a high bar to start with, a win isn't enough, I reckon that a majority of less than about forty will be seen as a huge failure for Theresa and her leadership of the party.

May has tarnished her strong & stable reputation, does mean that when the compromises come for brexit & her comptence matches that of her time as home sec & during this campaign the knives will be out any increae in vote share will be good as it would presumably neuter the more rabid right wing elements of her party 50+ extra seats and she will be sitting pretty for a while, 100+ and shed be safe as fk

For Labour, what demonstrates failure for Corbynite/Leftist rather than Centrist/Blairite policies? What happens if, for example, they win less seats but a bigger vote share, will people cling on to that as an endorsement of radical leftist policies?

ironically the manifesto is hardly radical relative to many european countries, but a big loss and it will be sold that way by his enemies
If the polls are right he can say look, I went from a 20 point deficit to just 7 and his policies will have some protection from the 'red tories'
I think a bigger vote share is possible, if the just loose in some key marginals but the cosmopolitan youth vote turns up it could well work that way

the question then remains will those young labour voters become more tory as they age or will the OAPs that have dumped brexshit and another tory government begin to die off and see things shift left for the next election/ref in [s]5[/s] [s]3[/s] 2? years time

the question then remains will those young labour voters become more tory as they age or will the OAPs that have dumped brexshit and another tory government begin to die off and see things shift left for the next election/ref in 5 3 2? years time

I think less so than previously. Younger people will age without the benefits of free university education, good workplace pensions and affordable housing.

I had to sit with my brexit loving tory voting in laws at the weekend and listen to them moaning about how much food had gone up.

No you didn't, you had a choice!

Younger people will age without the benefits of free university education,

unfortuantely the less educated you are, the more likely you ar eto vote tory/brexit etc

those old tories know how to keep the plebs in their place!

unfortuantely the less educated you are, the more likely you are to vote tory/brexit etc

Complete bullshit again.. your hypocrisy is staggering. 🙄

Klunk - Member

No you didn't, you had a choice!

Complete bullshit again.. your hypocrisy is staggering

except, facts........

http://metro.co.uk/2017/02/07/if-you-voted-for-brexit-youre-not-going-to-like-this-6433145/

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/25/demographics-dividing-britain/
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any response ocb ??

too slow

Complete bullshit again.. your hypocrisy is staggering.

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Oh I see, a poll and some misrepresentation, very well played. Crack on hypocrite.

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theocb - Member
Oh I see, a poll and some misrepresentation, very well played. Crack on hypocrite.

ermmm, thats not the apology I was expecting

If you could provide some more reasoning, thatd be great

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Surely that just shows that older people, who we [u]already[/u] know are more likely to vote conservative, are less likely to have done A levels or gone to university - perhaps because, well, fewer people did A levels or went to university when they were younger? (Indeed, leaving school with no qualifications and going straight into a job or apprenticeship aged fifteen was pretty common back in the day)

LOL at theocb. When in a hole and all that.

ninfan - Member
Surely that just shows that older people, who we already know are more likely to vote conservative, are less likely to have done A levels or gone to university - perhaps because, well, fewer people did A levels or went to university when they were younger?

ninfan - Member
Surely that just shows that older people, who we already know are more likely to vote conservative, are less likely to have done A levels or gone to university - perhaps because, well, fewer people did A levels or went to university when they were younger?

even controling for age it still holds true

http://www.statsguy.co.uk/brexit-voting-and-education/

[quote=ransos ]Younger people will age without the benefits of free university education

Even so, more of them will have had a university education, even if they've had to pay for it - that's just comparing the current generation to mine which is way off retirement age yet.

[quote=kimbers ]ermmm, thats not the apology I was expecting

😯 - I was expecting nothing less than further brain dead abuse

Is Brexit support a reliable proxy for Conservative/Labour Kimbers? I reckon Tony Benn wouldn't say so.

Since I know you like to stick to the facts, ninfan, the original comment was:

[quote=kimbers ]unfortuantely the less educated you are, the more likely you ar eto vote tory/brexit etc

Is Brexit support a reliable proxy for Conservative/Labour Kimbers?

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At least the 5% UKIP remain vote is there to make us all smile

Is Brexit support a reliable proxy for Conservative/Labour Kimbers? I reckon Tony Benn wouldn't say so.

So what, Tony Benn would have been one of the people in the 35% of Labour who wanted leave.

Do you think all supporters/members of a party agree on all things 100% of the time?

They will do under the boot of Chairwoman May. 😉

Is Brexit support a reliable proxy for Conservative/Labour Kimbers? I reckon Tony Benn wouldn't say so.

Commentators/jurnos observed that some of the Leave vote was a anti-establishment vote. From what I've read Labour are trying to tap in to some of that anti sentiment and pollsters are suggesting that some UKIP supporters are coming back to Labour.

Might explain why UKIP are campaigning for people to vote Tory in certain seats.

For Labour, what demonstrates failure for Corbynite/Leftist rather than Centrist/Blairite policies? What happens if, for example, they win less seats but a bigger vote share, will people cling on to that as an endorsement of radical leftist policies?

I think for Labour, unless things go very badly wrong in the next 24 hours they can chalk this one up as a win, the Tories called a snap election because all indications showed they'd win, and they'd win big - why else would you 2 years into a 5 year 'fixed' term? But Labour have given them a real shock, they closed the polls dramatically, but as we've seen polls have been wrong before.

I think it's mostly a moot point though, I would think it's pretty unlikely he'll step down if he loses, not after 20 months or whatever it's been and 'momentum' has positioned itself well enough to ensure he won't be pushed and he can't and won't move to the centre.

I think the only way he'll step down tomorrow if he loses would be on the grounds that he would be 73 or so at the next general election and fight that hoping to be PM until 78

When he does finally step down it'll again been time for Labour to decide what party they want to be, they spent the 80's and half the 90's being lead by well-meaning, principled Socialist leaders and they lost, again and again and got nothing done.

In the 90s and 2000s they compromised, and made real changes to peoples lives.

In the 90s and 2000s they compromised, and made real changes to peoples lives.

That assumes that the compromises they made then would work now. For one thing, they were based on a booming economy.

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(not that there's much of that going on in here)

partisan dog
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is that an anti lib dem poster ^^ ?

To answer the OP I think yes.

What again? We get to do it all again in 6 weeks?

unfortuantely the less educated you are, the more likely you ar eto vote tory/brexit etc

those old tories know how to keep the plebs in their place!

So this was meant as a complimentary comment towards those working class types who lack formal qualifications? Or did you use a tiny snippet of the yougov poll to have a snidey dig at the 'gullible working class thickos'?

I suppose if you had said the tory vote is dominant across all types of formal education you wouldn't have been able to fit in your plebs dig

Exit polling suggesting she's really screwed up.

igm - Member
What again? We get to do it all again in 6 weeks?

Hmmm. I may have been correct.

No