Needs to be approved by the Israeli parliament as well, iirc? That could be tricky
Cabinet approval, and yes that could be tricky. Some of the far-right parties that form Netanyahu's coalition are furious and so they should be - the two stated aims of the genocidal onslaught were to totally destroy Hamas and release the Israelis that they held.
Not only has that not been achieved 15 months later despite everything, including starvation, being thrown at the operation, but Hamas is still strong enough to negotiate from a position of reasonable strength.
Netanyahu probably will get Cabinet approval though because failure to do so would unravel the coalition and possibly lead to a general election, something which could leave the far-right in a much weaker position.
Imo this ceasefire will not be good news for zionism, apart from the fact that the Palestinian resistance has not been destroyed it will accentuate and increase very deep divisions within a society facing its greatest existential threat ever. Ilan Pappe would argue that it will be just another nail in Zionism's coffin. Although frankly they have no choice - it is a failing settler-colonialist project in the 21st century and well out of step with history.
They might have had better luck a couple of hundred years ago.
So a ceasefire announced, but given it doesn't take affect for a few days israel seize the opportunity to kill a few more innocent folks, probably as they know they won't be able to get away with it for a wee while after the weekend.
Just incase anyone is under any illusion on who the bad guys are in all of this ..
Yes they are maintaining their aerial and artillery assaults with obviously the inevitable deaths of innocent people :
https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/
But no, I think they know full well they will get away with breaking the ceasefire in the weeks ahead, they will simply blame the Palestinians. They always do.
And if people don't believe them they won't care after all they are able to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity with complete impunity so why would ceasefire violations be any more of a problem for them?
Obviously they won't be able slaughter Palestinians on quite the same genocidal scale as they have been but they will still be able to carry on quietly killing them, as they have been in illegal occupied West Bank where they are currently killing about 10 Palestinians every week, despite there being no "war" there or organised Hamas presence.
So they will be able to maintain their campaign of terror against Palestinian men, women, and children.
According to OCHA, between 7 October 2023 and 8 January 2024, 813 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Of those, 498 Palestinians were killed in 2024.
Anyway it's starting to look as if Israeli Cabinet might not confirm the ceasefire. They were supposed to meet this morning to vote on it but they never met.
Obviously they are blaming Hamas but the problem appears to be the far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich. It looks possible that the Israeli government is close to collapse resulting in a general election in which the far-right and Likud will get a hammering.
Israel really is in a crisis and to think many believed that Trump winning the presidential election was nothing short of fantastic news for hardline zionists. Who knows but it's not looking that way right now.
I guess it depends how successful Trump is in pursuing his Abraham Accords and the normalisation of Saudi-Israeli relations, which necessitates the ceasefire, and whether it manages to guarantee Israel's long-term security and future in the region. Personally I don't think anything can do that, I subscribe to Ilan Pappe's critique.
The only thing keeping Israel from finalising a ceasefire is PM Netanyahu's inevitable appearance in an Israeli Court to answer various corruption charges.
On Friday morning, the prime minister's office said he had been informed by the negotiating team that agreements on the deal had been reached.
It added that the security cabinet would meet later on Friday to ratify the agreement, before approval from the full government is sought. Families of the hostages have been informed. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwypppw9jrko
From the above link. :
Two hardline right-wing ministers, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who are both members of the security cabinet and oppose the deal, have said they will resign in protest.
But they've signalled they will not join the opposition - to bring the government down - yet, so long as the war resumes in six weeks time, when phase one of the ceasefire and hostage release deal ends.
What is being ignored here about Trump having sway over Netanyahu, is that Trump specifically told Netanyahu not to agree to a ceasefire ‘till the credit could be taken by Trump. How many people have died for Trump to get one over Biden and the Democrats? That’s what his transactional politics are about, the deal has to be good for him, no matter who else has to suffer, for how long.
is that Trump specifically told Netanyahu not to agree to a ceasefire ‘till the credit could be taken by Trump.
Maybe for the last couple of months but thats down to Trump being, as you say, transactional.
Biden did fail since everytime Netanyahu took the piss the response was at best to keep sending weapons and at worse sending even more. Of course if he had done differently the maga lot would have gone nuts but its still a failing on his part.
What is being ignored here about Trump having sway over Netanyahu, is that Trump specifically told Netanyahu not to agree to a ceasefire ‘till the credit could be taken by Trump.
And what is also being ignored here is that if Donald Trump could twist Netanyahu arm then if course so too could have Joe Biden........"don't sign my ceasefire deal, don't get any more US weapons and parts, simply as"
It is just bizarre to believe that Joe Biden was not in a position to sway Netanyahu. As little as two weeks ago Joe Biden was still doing everything that Netanyahu wanted him to do :
Biden notifies Congress of $8 billion arms sale to Israel
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/04/biden-arms-deal-israel-8-billion
How many people have died because the President of the world's greatest superpower wouldn't stand up to Netanyahu and his fascist far-right government?
But let's blame Donald Trump for that.
Only a bunch of batshit lefties could try and twist this into being a dig at Trump. I'd say it was unbelievable, but sadly it isn't.
I was thinking on the drive home earlier about checking in on here and asking how you would swing this one. Seems I didn't have to bother
No, all the lefties I know, and I know quite a few, blame Joe Biden for allowing the Israeli government's genocidal onslaught on the Palestinian people.
None of them blame Donald Trump for the tens of thousands of mostly women and children who have died in Gaza over the last 15 months.
Which batshit lefties did you have in mind?
Which batshit lefties did you have in mind
Certainly not you. In the brief time I've spent in this thread, I agree with what you are saying
But Trump used his leverage to actively delay the deal.
So you claim. And yet Netanyahu did not wait until Trump had been sworn in to agree to the ceasefire. As soon as Trump was declared the winner of the presidential election had Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire Trump would still have been able to claim credit as it was one of his campaign promises - he said he would bring peace to Gaza and that there would be hell to pay if there wasn't a ceasefire by the time he was US president.
You claim, without providing any evidence at all (Trump style!) that Trump did a deal with Netanyahu in which he would not to agree to a ceasefire whilst Joe Biden was still president. And yet all the political pundits appear to universally agree that it was intense pressure this week from Steven Witkoff, on behalf of Donald Trump, that forced Netanyahu to capitulate over the issue.
Netanyahu did not want to agree to this ceasefire, his far-right coalition partners have publicly stated that they will pull out of the government in six weeks time if fighting in Gaza does not resume, they see this as a victory for Hamas who only a couple of days ago were still inflicting casualties on the IDF.
But under intense pressure from Steven Witkoff/Donald Trump Netanyahu had no choice.
This ceasefire could ultimately bring about the political downfall of Netanyahu, even though his ability to survive political crises is the stuff of legends.
his ability to survive political crises is the stuff of legends.
Surviving political crises in Israel seems to be fairly straightforward - just go out and murder some Palestinians; the “peace-loving” electorate flock to your defence. It’s when you negotiate a peace treaty that things get tricky.
An interesting article from a left-wing Israeli source which argues that Netanyahu has used Donald Trump's arm twisting as an excuse to stop a war which was no longer providing him sufficient benefits.
Well the news this morning is not surprising. Netanyahu is a genocidal war tyrant with UK and USA wrapped around his little finger. Glad to see my tax money going to fund weapons to use on innocent children. All it come down to is a vanity project for him for greed and power, and anyone in support of Israel should hang their heads. No different to Nazi Germany.
All it come down to is a vanity project for him for greed and power,
Well in his case its more about avoiding court and prison.
achievements
Until a few hours ago this man was the Israeli Cabinet Minister responsible for National Security.
Ben-Gvir has been convicted eight times for offences that include racism and supporting a terrorist organisation. As a teen, his views were so extreme that the army banned him from compulsory military service.
And he is very proud of his commitment to the genocide in Gaza :
In his Cabinet post, Ben-Gvir oversaw the country’s police force. He used his influence to encourage Netanyahu to press ahead with the war in Gaza and recently boasted that he had blocked past efforts to reach a ceasefire.
Having criticised Netanyahu for allegedly helping Hamas I am a little surprised that Ben-Gvir hasn't accused him of anti-semitism, isn't that the route which the argument usually follows?
At least Emily has a home to go back to....
I'm not really that clued up on Israeli politics. Surely now it's a good thing overall that 3 of the most extreme far-righters have gone? Less chance of the fighting restarting, surely?
It may destabilise the government... ok, but what does that actually mean? Help bring down Netenyahu's coalition? Does that mean more moderates will replace the government? Will it be better or worse for Israel? Gaza? Palestinians? The middle east in general?
Surely now it’s a good thing overall that 3 of the most extreme far-righters have gone? Less chance of the fighting restarting, surely?
Well, the fighting will restart, as sure as night follows day. There are still Palestinians to murder and land to grab, and the next four years offer an excellent opportunity to do both with zero consequences. On the specific question of these three nutters, I guess it depends on if Netanyahu needs their support to keep out of prison, and in that case, if they can be coaxed back with promises of restarting the bombing in 41 days.
15yr old boy on a donkey? Must be a hamas operative according to the IDF so it’s ok to break the ceasefire
I hope every single one of these genocidal war criminals are hunted down and face the justice they deserve
https://twitter.com/ase/status/1881427131265392940?s=46&t=qvPR6lBfBXtAWZ-6beFWyA
Don't blame the boots on the ground. I know " i was just following orders" is a poor defense but they have been indoctrinated all their lives.
So what’s the solution - check the entire Israeli population into rehab?
I have no idea. Stop arming the Israelis? Un forces on the ground well armed ones?
My question was not how to stop the Israelis from killing, but how ro deradicalise them. Can anything be done? Or are they lost forever?
My question was not how to stop the Israelis from killing, but how ro deradicalise them. Can anything be done? Or are they lost forever?
I don't think that deradicalising Israelis is a realistic option, certainly not in the short term. So TJ's suggestion of stop arming them plus applying sanctions, and an international force to force them to comply with international law, is the only realistic option.
If you want to stop the slaughter of Palestinians and guarantee that they enjoy the same basic rights as everyone is entitled to. The problem is that Western governments who arm and support Israel really don't treat any of that as a priority.
When it was pointed out to Israeli historian Ilan Pappe :
But within Israel, young people also have access to the documentation of the genocide on social media, on platforms like TikTok. But many still disregard Palestinian suffering.
He replied :
They didn’t get the same education as young Jews in America. They got an education from a very indoctrinated country. And that’s the key. They were produced, if you want, engineered by the Israeli education system.
I wrote an article in 1999 warning that, looking at the Israeli curricula, the next graduates of this system would be racist fanatics, extreme and dangerous to themselves and to others. Unfortunately, I was absolutely right.
This is the product of a very indoctrinated society from the cradle to the grave.
You need to re-educate these people. You can’t just show them things and hope that this would move them.
They can see dead Palestinian babies and say ‘Good, very good’. Dehumanisation is part of the Israeli DNA and it’s very hard to confront just by giving them more information.
Well, it’s becoming clearer what a Trump backed “Peace” will look like. The West Bank settlements being expanded by force, backed by IDF forces freed up from Gaza, with no USA sanctions on those expanding illegal settlements any more. All while what’s left of the people in Gaza being prepared to be cleared out, the land divided, and the whole region rebuilt to the design of, and more deeply controlled by, Israel. Depressing.
Un forces on the ground well armed ones?
That would be a slow motion car crash for sure. Without a very clear structure of outcomes for breaches of whatever rules that would be applied, you would need a very capable force who are empowered to act accordingly.
The UN doesn't have a good track history there, it's why they favour on the whole poorly equipped nations who lack the doctrine to be effective in that space.
Great in principle, fraught with risks in the application, the current tick box force lets people think the UN are doing something while posing absolutely no risk in curtailing Israeli or Hamas activities.
There are very limited UNTSO forces on the ground. But this is no Cyprus… where’s the border? And how do you prevent deliberate escalation from third party neighbouring states, by targeting blue helmets, if you had a larger more interventional UN presence?
There are UNTSO forces on the ground. But this is no Cyprus
I know. And they're ineffective. In part they're not doctrinally or materially prepared for what others propose and the UN lacks the will to enforce compliance and many nations (of influence) lack the will to support the UN.
Edit to add: and many nations lack the will to do more politically to being this to an end. Which has been very obvious throughout. I think Israel as a nation are simultaneously culturally desensitised to the impact of this and have an aggressive entrenched mentality towards Hamas, Palestine and Iran. I understand in some regards, "but do what you've always done, get what you've always got" is applicable here.
Very ineffective. And I agree with you on all counts.
I also agree with those that would like to see large scale UN peacekeeping forces, with personnel predominately from the region, keeping all in check, and ideally pushing Israel back behind previously recognised borders while also preventing attacks on it… but as things stand it’s a fantasy, there is not the ways, means or agreement to do it.
with no USA sanctions on those expanding illegal settlements any more
Unfortunately as far as I am aware the lifting of sanctions on settlers guilty of terrorism was one of the conditions of the original Biden peace agreement, I don't think that Trump is responsible for that.
I remain fairly open minded on what will happen now that Trump is in the Whitehouse as I don't attach that much value on what Trump says, which often doesn't match at all with what he actually does.
I think it is possible that Israel might at some point declare the full annexation of the West Bank, it's what the settler parties in the far-right coalition government have been strongly pushing for long time. In which case I would fully expect Trump to give his blessing. But that would make little difference to the dynamics of the situation imo as the West Bank is for all intents and purposes is already annexed by Israel.
The Gaza strip is different imo. Whatever Trump says the situation is that Hamas has not been defeated. They have undoubtedly lost a lot of military hardware but their numbers are probably about the same as at the start of the Israeli onslaught 15 months ago. And they are definitely stronger politically, certainly in the West Bank, than they were 15 months.
Resuming the genocide is obviously an option but what would be the point when it damages both Israel and the United States politically in the eyes of the world, and achieves nothing concrete in guaranteeing Israel's security?
Plus the "war" in Gaza was having a profoundly negative effect on Israel both economically and militarily, and politically on Netanyahu.
Unfortunately as far as I am aware the lifting of sanctions on settlers guilty of terrorism was one of the conditions of the original Biden peace agreement, I don’t think that Trump is responsible for that.
Sources?
The Gaza strip is different imo. Whatever Trump says the situation is that Hamas has not been defeated. They have undoubtedly lost a lot of military hardware but their numbers are probably about the same as at the start of the Israeli onslaught 15 months ago. And they are definitely stronger politically, certainly in the West Bank, than they were 15 months.
And Netanyahu knew that the type of military offensive he unleashed on Gaza would have zero chance of eradicating Hamas. Hence the ultimate aim always being the displacement or annihilation of the entire population of Gaza and the West Bank and the assimilation of those territories into Israel - one that Trump is now echoing. The continued existence of Hamas simply allows further steps towards that aim - the one-state solution.
And now he has four further years to pursue that aim with few restrictions, indeed with the encouragement of the most powerful nation on earth.
Sources?
Is that a joke? To paraphrase Joe Biden.
Well Biden for a start, he claims that the peace agreement signed was his peace agreement and no different to the one put to Netanyahu in May last year. All the political pundits seem to agree with that claim and the only thing discussed in the final days was the detail of the prisoner swap..... how many at a time, where, which ones first, etc.
Where are the claims that the lifting of sanctions is part of the peace deal worked for over the last six months, rather than something done at the whim of the new president (rescinding of Executive Order 14115)?
I remain fairly open minded on what will happen now that Trump is in the Whitehouse
It sounds like Trump wants to ship off Palestineans to surrounding Arab countries then clear the Gaza strip, which doesn't sound very Two State Solution to me. Predictably, and disgustingly, he's got his "real estate mogul", "what's in it for me?" hat on:
"Trump said earlier this week that he “might” be able to have a role in rebuilding Gaza, praising it as having a “phenomenal location, on the sea” and “the best weather.”
The comments echoed remarks made by his son-in-law Jared Kushner in February 2024 when Kushner called the waterfront property in Gaza “very valuable” and suggested Israel should move Palestinians out of Gaza and “clean it up.”
Looks like those protest votes last November have worked out well for everyone involved /s
Hence the ultimate aim always being the displacement or annihilation of the entire population of Gaza and the West Bank and the assimilation of those territories into Israel –
Oh I totally agree, the problem is that it doesn't currently seem to be going to plan. Sure the IDF are currently blocking the Netzarim Corridor in attempt to stop the return of Palestinians to their homes in northern Gaza but I very much doubt that is sustainable.
Israel has definitely tried to ethically cleanse Gaza but right now the process seems to be in reverse and the only way the Israeli government can do anything about that would be to resume the onslaught.
Israel carries out regular slaughters of Palestinians in Gaza and has been doing so for decades,l but in the short term at least I think that is probably now unlikely. And as I say not least because of the failure of the latest slaughter - literally the same week as the ceasefire deal was signed Hamas were killing Israeli soldiers.
Although obviously no one can be sure of anything with regards to Netanyahu's behaviour.
Israel has definitely tried to ethically cleanse Gaza but right now the process seems to be in reverse and the only way the Israeli government can do anything about that would be to resume the onslaught.
I'm not sure that Netanyahu minds a 'forever war', since it currently seems to be the only thing keeping him out of prison. It could be that the aim is simply to create the forever war rather than actually fully achieve the emptying of 2.3m Gazans. Either way, I can see the rubblification of Gaza resuming on some pretext or other over the next few months, probably with the blessing of Trump.
Where are the claims that the lifting of sanctions is part of the peace deal worked for over the last six months, rather than something done at the whim of the new president (rescinding of Executive Order 14115)?
My understanding was that the Biden administration offered the lifting of sanctions (which effect those in the coalition gov settler parties) as a sweetener for signing the ceasefire agreed.
But I can't recall the original source of that claim so I am happy to concede that the decision to lift the sanctions was Trump's and not anyone else's. Although to fair it was all window dressing in an attempt to appear that the US government was doing something about violation of international law by Israel in the West Bank.
You can be fairly confident that the sanctions were deliberately designed to have no real effect beyond perhaps causing some inconvenience, and of course they didn't. The United States could easily hurt Israel for violation of international law, if they actually wanted to.
I’m not sure that Netanyahu minds a ‘forever war’
I'm sure he doesn't but the 'war' in Gaza isn't/was no longer popular with voters, fighting a war which you don't appear to be winning often isn't, so I am not sure how quickly he could resume military operations.
IDF in Crisis, Despite a Cease-fire: Why Fewer Israelis Were Turning Up to Fight in Gaza
"As the conflict with Hamas became Israel's longest war, it has taken its toll – on morale, economic subsistence and mental health – leading to declining rates of reservists responding to call-up notices. The repercussions go far beyond the IDF and Gaza"
A while ago I suggested that the Israeli game plan in Gaza was to kill as many Palestinians as possible, with bombs, starvation and disease, and ethnically cleanse the rest by forced transfer to Egypt. Phase One seems to be nearing completion with the help of Genocide Joe and his ghastly sidekick Baby Butcher Blinken. Of course if you'd listened to the words and not looked at the actions you might have imagined that the US was working tirelessly to end the killing.
The election of Trump is of course a disaster in so many ways, but at least we have clarity, as he says the quiet part out loud, and Phase Two kicks into gear, with revelation of his plan to force Egypt and Jordan to aid and abet in the settler colonial / real estate conquest of Gaza.
With senior members of his administration openly agreeing that the West Bank is part of Israel, the project is nearly complete.
I'm told (Guardian, Times, BBC) that those being released by Hamas are 'hostages' and those released by Israel are 'prisoners'. No mention of 'administrative detention' (renewable every six months) based on 'secret evidence'. Anyone spot anything different in the mass media?
Anyone spot anything different in the mass media?
No, but we should be very concerned about the mental toll the ordeal has had upon them, despite them smiling, being well fed and clean. Meanwhile the Palestinians released are emaciated and weak, some having difficulty even to walk.
Yup, what I find interesting is how the BBC talks about the Israeli-Hamas "war" and yet IDF soldiers held by Hamas are referred to as "hostage" not prisoners.
I can't recall another recent war where the BBC has referred to POWs as "hostages".
Although to be fair to the BBC ever since they exposed the "sexed up" dodgy Iraq dossier and the sacking of the BBC's director general as a consequence, the BBC have remained deeply worried about upsetting the existing UK government.
Thanks Tony Blair
I don't think it's that deep, most journos are ****ing useless when it comes to correct terminology.
I can’t recall another recent war where the BBC has referred to POWs as “hostages”
Has there ever been a war where unarmed civilians have been referred to as POW's ?♂️ Hostages seems the correct term. Apart from Hamas fighters I'd put most of the Palestinian prisoners in the same category.
