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Iran isn’t an Arab nation
Exactly! even more reason why the arab states would see the upside of Iran getting into bother
and secondly it is much more powerful militarily than most people probably realise.
This website ranks Iran as the 14th most powerful nation on earth (out of 145) and Israel the 17th most powerful.
not sure how much this really counts in reality, we've seen what happened to the 'second best army in the world'
The only significant advantage Israel has over Iran is in airpower, in most other aspects Iran has a significant advantage over Israel.
Given where Israel and Iran are on the map (~1000km apart!), airpower is the only thing that counts. The only thing these two can do is lob missiles at each other, and Israel is way ahead both in terms of defense and strike capability.
I'm not sure what you mean by 'full scale war' but there won't be any tanks rolling anywhere.
Israel is committing acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing in Palestine, not Iran. Israel is trying to drag Iran into their war on Palestinians in a calculated act to garner more support from the US, UK and Germany. No body is forcing these actions onto Israel they are doing these gross crimes against humanity because that is what their regime want to do, not "because Iran".
It appears that Iran is being very patient, despite provocation and don't seem to want full on hostilities to break out, probably due to the death toll that will involve.
we’ve seen what happened to the ‘second best army in the world’
What are we seeing ? A protracted conflict, a war of attrition, with Ukraine appearing to be running short of personnel, to the point they're employing 'press gangs' and rounding up anyone and everyone eligible to join the military.
ahahah Ernies link is laughable, just comparing numbers of 'things' so that a F35 counts same as a soviet Mig29. Safe to discard it entirely.
Justin Bronk at RUSI doesnt seem to think that Israel has much in terms of SEAD/DEAD so even Israel won't be able to conduct air operations at scale over Iran. It'll mostly be long range stuff from them too. I just don't see how this war could expand to much more than we've seen this year.
The only significant advantage Israel has over Iran is in airpower, in most other aspects Iran has a significant advantage over Israel.
This ignores 2 major points, firstly the technological advantage Israel's military has and secondly they can also count on support from the US (not troops on the ground but AWACS, air-to-air refueling, intelligence and advanced weapon systems). That said I don't think Israel wants a protracted war with Iran, they certainly don't want a land war (which would be night on impossible without the US getting directly involved, which they won't). But Israeli can do a lot of damage to Iran's military and economy, it's much more difficult for Iran to do the same to Israel.
I expect Israel's imminent retaliatory strike on Iran will focus on military and maybe political targets so that they can say they showed restraint, if Iran strikes back then the gloves will come off and Israel will hit oil processing and other economic targets and possibly even nuclear refinery/generation targets (though they might save that for any future escalation).
First Gaza and now Lebanon, both destroyed because of the hatred of Israel by Iran’s religious leaders.
Gaza and Lebanon are being destroyed by the ones dropping the bombs. To claim otherwise is counter-factual victim blaming.And to deny Israeli agency, to claim they are helpless pawns in an Iranian plot, seems a bit … antisemitic.
ahahah Ernies link is laughable,
Because it doesn't fit into the preferred narrative that Iran is a weak third world country? There is a reason why the United States and its allies have never attacked Iran, that link helps to explain it.
The neo-con Project for the New American Century during the George W Bush administration era had a clear goal for "full spectrum" global dominance. It started small by attacking and invading Afghanistan, one of the poorest and weakest country in the world. It then moved on to Iraq, a country weakened and on its knees after years of crippling sanctions.
Next on the list was Syria but by then Iraq had gone tits up so rather than Western boots on the ground civil war was fermented leading to a stalemate. Then eventually Afghanistan was lost and by then Project for the New American Century with its goal of full spectrum global dominance had also collapsed. But the ultimate prize was also going to have been Iran.
What the US and other Western countries actually did was to make Iran even more influential in the Middle East than it had previously been - the direct result of the Western strategy of 'kill first, think later'. All the most advanced technology in the world (which helps Israel win short wars) cannot win a war against insurgency. A lesson which the West learnt in Afghanistan and Iraq, and Israel is learning today in Gaza. Trying to ignore that fact and going for bigger stakes, such as taking on a huge and powerful country like Iran, smacks of the desperation of a gambler who has lost everything and doesn't know when to give up.
An interesting article by Israel's former military ombudsman, a man who probably understands Israel's military capability more than most people
They never think for a moment about the day after. They are disconnected from reality and exercise no judgment. And they are propelled by a tailwind from many people who don't understand the situation evolving around them.
Because it doesn’t fit into the preferred narrative that Iran is a weak third world country?
No, because it's methodology is risible. By it's reckoning an airforce of 100 Sopwith Camels would be the same strength as one with 100 F22's. Just embarassing really
it is much more powerful militarily than most people probably realise.
Hmmm, not so sure, on paper it looks pretty formidable, but most of the time it's used for internal repression, and dealing with civilians is a bunch easier than armed and motivated enemy troops. As can be seen in Ukraine, modern warfare is controlled by air forces, and without a doubt the Israeli AF would destroy the Iranian AF in days or [more likely] weeks, if they do that, it really doesn't matter how large Iran's army is. Luckily for everyone, there's too many other countries in between Israel and Iran for it to get to that, and Iran is essentially invasion-proof anyway. Hezbollah on the other hand was 'encouraged' by Iran to send thousands of 'volunteers' to fight for Bashir- Al Assad in his horrific civil war so are both battle-hardened and experienced. The Israeli Army is going (again) to find it pretty tough going in southern Lebanon. Hopefully if there's a stalemate there, it'll force Israel to stop. How long that takes is anyone's guess.
There is a reason why the United States and its allies have never attacked Iran, that link helps to explain it.
Iran has the luck of geography on its side, rather than armed forces that pose any sort of threat. Numbers of things only give you part of the story, On paper Iran's navy has 19 subs vs 5 in the Israeli navy, but the capabilities of each aren't anything like equivalent. As Iraq found out in the 1980's; attacking Iran is very very hard, and the same is true for countries like the US. It would take WW2 levels of commitment to invade it, and that's just not going to happen.
Certainly Israel needs to be condemned for its actions. Nothing can excuse the slaughter of innocents, however until Iran stops funding their proxy armies. Israel will continue this decades long war.
This
It would be madness for Israel to launch a full-scale war against Iran.
I don't think that they will, although there will be further attacks
And Iran certainly has no interest in engaging Israel directly, it doesn’t need to.
and "It appears that Iran is being very patient, despite provocation and don’t seem to want full on hostilities to break out, probably due to the death toll that will involve.
Not "...it doesn't need to", it has to and has done twice this year already. Those were the first two direct attacks on Israel by Iran that I can think of and the reason is that Israel has severely constrained the leadership of its proxy forces, Hamas and Hezbollah. Those organisations are essentially leaderless and Iran has the choice to either step back or show the region (and its proxies) that its goal of removing Israel from the region is important.
Iran doesn't want escalation to war because it risks massive civil unrest that it couldn't then control, but a handful of missile attacks are less of an issue.
It also has a problem in that the head of the IRGC, Esmail Qaani has been in custody for the last week or so accused of giving Israel the information to strike Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. He was seen at a funeral today and so presumably the hunt for informers continues elsewhere
Exactly! even more reason why the arab states would see the upside of Iran getting into bother
Saudi Arabia still considers that Iran was behind the destruction of 50% of its oil production in 2019 at Abqaiq and Khurais in attacks carried out by another proxy, the Houthis
EDIT: The thought of Saudi Arabia and Israel normalising relations was a step too far for Iran
Gaza and Lebanon are being destroyed by the ones dropping the bombs. To claim otherwise is counter-factual victim blaming.And to deny Israeli agency, to claim they are helpless pawns in an Iranian plot, seems a bit … antisemitic.
I don't think that anyone denies that the bombs are being dropped mainly by Israel (with a few Iranian missiles). The denial is that Iran has agency in Israel's continued need to fight
going for bigger stakes, such as taking on a huge and powerful country like Iran, smacks of the desperation of a gambler who has lost everything and doesn’t know when to give up.
If you're talking about Israel then the reasoning is political rather than desperation, striking Iran likely bolsters support for Netanyahu within Israel (and likely approval from quite a few countries behind the scenes, as long as it doesn't impact the price of oil too much). For relatively little risk & cost he can do a lot of damage to Iran, if they were neighbouring countries I don't think Israel would be quite so bullish.
The denial is that Iran has agency in Israel’s continued need to fight
The denial is that Israel needs to fight. As I've said before, if the Palestinian question was solved, nobody would be listening to Iran. As long as Israel continues its war of elimination, there will be volunteers resisting, and those volunteers need Iran's help.
By it’s reckoning an airforce of 100 Sopwith Camels would be the same strength as one with 100 F22’s.
Well the website goes into a bit more detail than that but let's for arguments sake accept that it doesn't provide an accurate comparison, what would you provide as an explanation for the reasons that the United States has never launched military operations against Iran?
When you consider all the excuses and lies used to justify war against Iraq could have easily been replicated to justify an attack on Iran. Iraq never posed any sort of serious threat to US interests in the Middle East, but Iran certainly does. There must surely be a reason that United States seems less than keen of a war with Iran.
Did you read the article in the Haatetz by General Brik and what he sees as the folly of going to war with Iran?
Here is another article by Gen Brik in the Haatetz in which he argues that it isn't Hamas that is collapsing but Israel. As the former military ombudsman for Israel I think it is fair to assume that he has a reasonable grasp on Israel's military capabilities.
Not too long from now we will also be unable to carry out those repeated raids, because with every passing day the Israel Defense Forces grows weaker and the number of dead and wounded in action among our soldiers rises. Hamas, in contrast, has already replenished its ranks with 17- and 18-year-olds.
Gaza has a population of approximately 2 million, Iran has a population of nearly 90 million.
what would you provide as an explanation for the reasons that the United States has never launched military operations against Iran?
Mostly: It's geography.
To invade you need to send in a couple (at least) of Field Corps worth of troops into a battle. In Desert Storm that was 3rd Army directing 7th and 18th Corps. Problem One: which way are they going in?
From the East - ****stan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan are all out as staging posts. North is the Caspian sea, Russia would probably have something to say about that, so you're left with going from Kuwait - If they let you, and an amphibious landing somewhere on the Persian gulf coast. and the last time the US Army did that in anger was the Korean War. Pretty much all of that has the Zagros Mountains almost all the way to the coast. So you're left with the Hawizeh marshlands - and if you manage to clear those with all your hefty tracked vehicles, you're still faced with the Zagros mountain chain that stretches 1200km in front of you. Let's say you manage to land and defend successfully...
Problem two: You've got to fight your way over 3000-4000m mountains, which are going to be easily defendable. If you want to see what fighting in mountains looks like; Monte Cassino of WW2 and the Guerra Blanca of WW1 will give you a good idea. Let's say you get over that, and you have a clear run through an empty desert to Tehran...
Problem 3 That city sits in the foothills of it's own mountain range, so attacking it will be insanely difficult as Iranian artillery throws things at you from the Alborz mountain range that surrounds it. Plus on the way you have to make sure you've taken and hold onto Isfahan, Kashan and Qom, which are all going to be very heavily defended.
All while maintaining your very extended supply chains across a marshland, two mountain ranges , and a desert.
Good luck with all that.
That's way the US and its allies have never invaded Iran, its ****ing impossible
Good luck with all that.
Is that aimed at Netanyahu? If so I think I'll back the sentiments behind that.
As Gen Brik points out the IDF hasn't even defeated Hamas after a year of trying, expanding the war to directly involve Hezbollah is as much to distract attention away from this failure as it is to draw greater support from the US. But Israel will not defeat Hezbollah. And Iran is simply not going to be invaded because Israel has no realistic chance of defeating it.
Hmmm, not so sure, on paper it looks pretty formidable
And they see themselves as holy warriors, unafraid of death. I know nothing about the military or conducting a war, but I would say that is the very very last type of opponent you want to be facing.
expanding the war to directly involve Hezbollah
Hezbollah expanded the war to include them as an act of "solidarity with the Palestinians" on the 8th October, over a year ago. And they haven’t shown any signs of stopping. The current disproportionate Israeli response has been slow, scarily well planned, brutal, and utterly inhumane.
‘expanding the war to directly confront Hezbollah on its home territory’
Fair. And that includes Syria, not just Lebanon.
That’s way the US and its allies have never invaded Iran, its **** impossible
Alexander the Great and Genghis Khan might disagree.
US suggests military aid to Israel is at risk in letter demanding more aid for Gaza
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/15/politics/us-israel-gaza-humanitarian-situation-letter/index.html
The US’ list of demands is extensive. Israel must allow at least 350 trucks a day to enter Gaza through all four major crossings, the letter says, in addition to opening a fifth crossing.
"We are particularly concerned that recent actions by the Israeli government – including halting commercial imports, denying or impeding nearly 90 percent of humanitarian movements between northern and southern Gaza in September".
Israel seems to be suggesting that the United States government are lying:
Just one day after the letter was sent, COGAT, the Israeli agency that manages policy for the Palestinian territories and the flow of aid into the strip, tweeted photos of aid going into Gaza.
“30 trucks entered northern Gaza through the Erez Crossing earlier today. Israel is not preventing the entry of humanitarian aid, with an emphasis on food, into Gaza,”
Although the US demands appear to be emphatic the 30 days given to Israel to comply suggests that it is connected to the presidential election - Israel repeatedly ignoring Biden isn't doing the Democrats any favours.
Why on earth would Israel need 30 days to stop denying and impending humanitarian movement? Which is what the US government is claiming that it is doing.
Netanyahu has had the U.S bent over the table for the entirety of Biden's presidency and is currently buried up to the hilt whilst spanking the shit out of him, it's a ****ing joke of Biden's so called diplomacy on Israel and its genocidal intent, it was clear within the first few weeks what Netanyahu and his goon squad were intending to do with Gaza and the West Bank, now its carried over into Lebanon, Syria, Iran.
Our useless ****s in government are merely patsy's of the American administration
Cut them loose, close the door behind us and let them get on with it - the closest we've came to a peace agreement and two state solution was scuppered by the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin back in 1995 by a zionist extremist.
There's no chance of a two state solution for at least a generation
Former minister says government should ‘stop wringing its hands’ over Gaza
Kit Malthouse told MPs: “Even if you care little for the tens of thousands of dead Arabs, and the millions displaced. Even if you couldn’t give a damn for the children shot in the head, or the burning hospital inmates in northern Gaza, if your only concern is the security of Israel, can the minister see any argument to say that yet another massacre of Gazans will enhance that security in the future?
What astonishing words from a Tory MP, and published in the Jewish News no less. As Netanyahu's contempt for global opinion grows it would appear that an increasing number of people are starting to realise the huge and lasting damage he is doing to Israel.
Netanyahu's Likud party issues invitation to event titled "Preparing to Settle Gaza"
https://twitter.com/haaretzcom/status/1846590168393789938?s=46&t=qvPR6lBfBXtAWZ-6beFWyA
Social Equality Minister May Golan, along with MKs Tally Gotliv, Osher Shkalim and Hanoch Milwidsky, confirmed to Haaretz that they will attend the event. The invitation also mentions that six other Likud MKs are expected to participate.
The Nachala movement stated that "the event is not just a theoretical conference, but a practical exercise and preparation for renewed settlement in Gaza." The movement added that "the return to settlement in Gaza is no longer just an idea but a process that is already in advanced stages, with government and public support."
According to the movement's announcement, ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir, Bezalel Smotrich, Amichai Eliyahu, and Yitzhak Wasserlauf are also expected to attend the event.
Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention :
"The Occupying Power shall not deport or transfer parts of its own civilian population into the territory it occupies."
The proposition is a straightforward war crime.
The proposition is a straightforward war crime.
I don’t think anyone is in doubt that Israel has committed countless appalling war crimes. The question is “who cares?”, and I think we disagree about the answer to that. In my view it’s “nobody at all”.
So Sinwar is dead.
Saw his name on Twitter trending, clicked only to be greeted with a graphic photo of a chunk of his head missing.
According to this he was killed in a firefight along with two other Hamas fighters, it wasn't a targeted assassination. I am surprised that he came out of the security of Hamas tunnels in daylight with the IDF operating in the area.
No one should be holding their breath, but some new optimism for peace today. Sadly I don't think this will be the end of Hamas, but return of the hostages taken in thr 7th October attacks might get us back on the track for a two state peace process we were on before Iran started the current conflict.
No one should be holding their breath, but some new optimism for peace today. Sadly I don’t think this will be the end of Hamas, but return of the hostages taken in thr 7th October attacks might get us back on the track for a two state peace process we were on before Iran started the current conflict.
I doubt you will have peace. Temporary ceased fire perhaps but that's not long term nor forever. Oppressors can never bring peace to the oppressed .
I doubt you will have peace. Temporary ceased fire perhaps but that’s not long term nor forever. Oppressiors can never bring peace to the oppressed .
Yes, would agree only temporary. But that might give time for cooler heads to prevail in general. On oppression, that's a minority view. Most western democracies continue to fully support Israel's right to self defence, and its action to clear out Hamas' tunnels appear to be what forced Sinwar out in the open today, rather than hiding under schools and hospitals.
but return of the hostages taken in thr 7th October attacks might get us back on the track for a two state peace process we were on before Iran started the current conflict.
That is to put it bluntly optimistic.
I am not sure the claim Iran "started the current conflict" adds up. All the commentary I have seen suggests that it was a small section in Hamas who started it and even then they were surprised about how successful the initial attack was.
If it was Iranian planned then I would have expected a far more coordinated attack rather than, for example, having Hezbollah sitting around for most of the year doing the bare minimum in terms of launching attacks on Israel. If they had launched a full out offensive a few weeks later the claim of everyone dancing to Irans drum would make more sense but as it is the utter lack of coordination over weeks and months makes it rather difficult to believe.
Thats not a tactical failing but a strategic one which is rather harder to explain.
On oppression, that’s a minority view.
Israel is internationally recognised as an occupying and oppressive force in Palestinian territories.
Ex-Tory minister claims ‘something is holding the PM back’ on Palestine recognition
A former Tory minister has demanded to know what is “holding the Prime Minister back” from pushing for recognition of a Palestinian state claiming this is a “prerequisite for peace in the Middle East.”
Kit Malthouse, a former education secretary and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, spoke during Thursday’s business questions session noting what he said was Labour’s election manifesto “pledge to recognise Palestine.”
Surely what is holding back the UK government from recognition of a Palestinian state is waiting for the United States to agree?
Starmer made that clear before the general election:
Starmer to delay recognition of Palestinian state to preserve relationship with US
And I think we can safely assume that the United States is waiting for Israel to approve.
the track for a two state peace process we were on before Iran started the current conflict.
This track to a two state solution, is it in the room with you now? Pure delusion is the most charitable interpretation.
Most western democracies continue to fully support Israel
Governments.... Not the people.
Screw Isreal.
Maybe this idea is worth further consideration https://thehill.com/opinion/international/445879-israeli-palestinian-conflict-can-end-with-the-new-state-solution/