Subscribe now and choose from over 30 free gifts worth up to £49 - Plus get £25 to spend in our shop
LOL @ Honesty box.
Yer right . . . .
I reckon it will be ventas or the situation at the French - German border. When I worked in Strasbourg I lived in Kehl and noticed there were 90% + French plates in the supermarket car parks. It was obvious why, the German shops were cheaper and had a better range of products than the French equivlents, even Lidl in Germany compared to Lidl in France a few km away. Whenever we go to Germany we fill the boot with Müsli, plum jam, shampoo and shoes.
Won't be quite like France/Germany, probably a bit more like France/Switzerland where customs duties apply and are enforced on occasion.
I didn't chose the France -Switzerland example because the strength of the Swiss Franc is such that savings are enormous for the Swiss who cross en masse to Germany, France, Austria and Italy. I deliberately chose two countries with the same money to show that minor differences in price and range result in high levels of cross border traffic.
As for "enforced on occasion", you can import up to 300 SF of stuff with limits on meat, butter, alcohol. Fact is most people can do their weekly shop and not have to worry about customs checks:
https://www.suisse-romande.com/faire-ses-courses-en-france.html
I deliberately chose two countries with the same money to show that minor differences in price and range result in high levels of cross border traffic.
You are describing the current situation, not the 2021 one. Cross border shopping trips have been the norm on the island of Ireland for quite some time now. Hard to forecast how this will change, as even the Withdrawal Agreement might be ripped up next year… no one knows for sure what situation NI will be in a month from now, never mind 12 months away.
Fact is most people can do their weekly shop and not have to worry about customs checks:
Not having to pay customs is not the same as avoiding checks for customs.
I think the one thing you can guarantee is that the early part of next year will throw up all manner of nasty surprises that nobody saw coming, as well as all the nasty non-surprises that 48% of us saw coming over 4 years ago
I know what I'm doing, Kelvin, I started on the previous page. It's about things like vetinary certificates (which are not needed now but will be as of 31/12) and paperwork which will raise the costs and hence prices on goods sold in N.I. sourced in mainland UK.
Edukator
Free MemberThere have been some interesting reports on France 24 and Euronews about the consequences for NI trade, deal or no deal. The need for vetinary certificates for cheese for example. The result will be higher prices for products from mainland UK and difficulty competing with products from south of the non-existant border. Four years back all this stuff was dubbed “project fear”, strikes me it’s worse than feared.
Posted 18 hours ago
Reply | Report
We already know the terms of the withdrawal agreement and that will be the state of the situation as of 31/12 unless the UK breaks the law and becomes a rogue state.
And jeez you can get picky at times and put stuff in my mouth I didn't say. I said "not have to worry about customs checks" because that's eactly what I meant not your distorted interpretation.
When I do my shopping in Spain or Germany "I don't worry about" customs checks because I never go over quotos and I'm certain that even if stopped and checked they won't find anything over any limits or banned.
You really do have a problem with me don't you, Kelvin, you reserve a special treatment, that's discrimination.
That’s a bit like the Chinese state charging for the bullets they use to execute prisoners.
Well, certain train fares 'east' were charged to the 'passengers' in the early 1940s, so there is more of a precedent here than at first sight...
Read back, Kelvin. I'm getting weary of quoting myself.
We already know the terms of the withdrawal agreement and that will be the state of the situation as of 31/12 unless the UK breaks the law and becomes a rogue state.
No one knows whether there will be any terms or not, due to our own govenment behaving like a bunch of private school kids.
Let's face it, that's what they are, very few of them have ever done a real job or earned an honest wage.
The worst case scenario has to be assumed now, because the UK government refuse to negotiate in good faith, and refuses to be honest in its intentions.
Put the shoe on the other foot, would you go into business with someone who you know is an out ond out liar?
Put the shoe on the other foot, would you go into business with someone who you know is an out ond out liar?
You might, but you would do it on fairly punitive terms and you would lawyer up in advance.
All of which comes at a cost, a cost that could well make you say "**** it, this isn't worth the hassle".
But depending on value when they import them back into NI they’ll be liable for duties according to whatever rate is in force (WTO set, maybe)
We’re going to need barriers and customs agents to make that work. Unless, some sort of honesty box is put in place maybe?
I’m sure the grown ups have got it covered.
No, because as I said before NI WILL STILL EFFECTIVELY BE PART OF THE EU. therefore there will be no border, no customs, no tariffs and all those goods from ROI can make their way in with no hindrance.
Read back... ...I’m getting weary of quoting myself.
Quite. Read that RTE article on the previous page and you'll see your talking fairytales.
No one knows whether there will be any terms or not, due to our own govenment behaving like a bunch of private school kids.
Let’s face it, that’s what they are, very few of them have ever done a real job or earned an honest wage.
It's a telling testimony to the actual standard of education taking place in this countries private schools. They're paying how much a year to churn out these dimwits?
What I've been genuinely amazed at is not just their complete ignorance of how international business actually functions, but just their complete ignorance about pretty much everything.
I think Dominic Raab still holds the title of the dimmest of the dim (which is a hotly contested mantle with this shower) who, as Brexit minister, publicly expressed his surprise on learning that we were so dependent on the Dover/Calais crossing for our imports.
Dominic... mate.... how else did you think they got here?
Whats most noticeable though is that on his belated recognition of this earth-shattering nugget of information he's continued in his belief that Brexit is a great idea and can't foresee any potential problems with the whole import/export thing.
Getting this lot to negotiate a trade deal is like dropping your car off to be serviced by someone who couldn't explain to you how the internal combustion engine actually works
When is the very very last deadline for a deal? i thought we were past the point but it all seems very quiet?
In theory I think it can go right up to NYE.
It’s a telling testimony to the actual standard of education taking place in this countries private schools. They’re paying how much a year to churn out these dimwits?
That's never been the aim - the idea is always to paint some kind of veneer of intelligent sophistication onto even the most inbred, gurning, moron, so they can get into the higher echelons of international business, or high office in the church or state, where they can sit in a chair while more intelligent people run the show.
Comes unstuck if they're expected to do more than mouth a few choice Latin phrases, I guess.
Dominic… mate…. how else did you think they got here?
Through Biggin Hill, waved through unchecked with a wink? Like lots of other stuff that their mates bring in, especially the russian ones?
In theory I think it can go right up to NYE.
Doesn't parliament break for christmas and NY?
Parliament's broken between New Year's day and New Year's Eve
FTFY 😉
It doesn't have to go through our parliament.
Any significant deal does however have to go through all the EU national parliaments and the deadline for that has long gone. How far they are prepared to bend the rules in the case of some significant deal that goes beyond pure EU competencies but that is only agreed at the last minute, remains to be seen. They would probably be prepared to fudge some details if all the EU leaders gave a nod and a wink.
^they'll be prepared to fudge it for pragmatic purposes until it can be rubber stamped
In todays latest instalment of 'everyone who voted for Brexit isn't just a racist thicko, honest' we have...
https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1333420149098024960?s=20
English exceptionalism at its finest.
There are no 'new' rules. There's just 'the' rules which are applied to all non-EU citizens, which now includes you, Nigel
We already know the terms of the withdrawal agreement and that will be the state of the situation as of 31/12 unless the UK breaks the law and becomes a rogue state.
Nothing - nothing happens after 31/12 because thats the end of the withdrawal period. all existing treaties and agreements become null
One of our suppliers has sent us this. The impact assessment for Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit, commisioned by Arla Foods.
I think Dominic Raab still holds the title of the dimmest of the dim (which is a hotly contested mantle with this shower)
James Cleverly and Chris Grayling: "Hold our beer"
Nothing – nothing happens after 31/12 because thats the end of the withdrawal period. all existing treaties and agreements become null
With repect to N.I. (which is what we're talking about here) the protocol outlined in the revised withdrawal agreement lasts for four years after 31/12 before being voted on at the N.I. assembly.
Check, TJ, it's all in the texts.
One of our suppliers has sent us this. The impact assessment for Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit, commisioned by Arla Foods.
/blockquote>
i couldnt take it all in but bloody hell thats some depressing reading, but blue passports eh?
Possible Brexit travel restrictions in the new year:
Stakeholders highlighted that in the case of a no deal scenario there will be an immediate
impact on butter, spreadable cheese and mozzarella for pizza.
Pizza shortages 😭 I don't think I can survive without pizza for longer than 48 hours. I have been testing this theory since 1988 🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕🍕
Anyone who reads the LSE report will be stock piling food & essentials for January IMO, whether they believe it'll be a 'testing' period or that we'll enter the "sunlit uplands".
I've already had the discussion with the OH and my Mum (I do her shopping) and told them to add everything they need to the shopping list and I'll get it in over the next few weeks. We're lucky, we can afford it and we've both cold larder/utility rooms to utilise.
not directly related, but has anyone tried to pre order christmas food this year? Most places seem to be out of stock already? Sign of things to come?
Probably more to do with a reduced forecast for demand. Our butcher is taking pre-orders but we're not committing until we know what's happening.
Surely we're all going to be eating turkey until June next year? Just turkey, mind. Possibly some occasional cabbage or swede. Every 3 weeks you'll get some powdered egg.
I am on the Brexit committee for an international company, our products come from Europe. The last shipment we will make to the UK is on the 24th December. We do not know details of a trade deal so have planned to make final changes to SAP at the start of January but we want to make sure year end is ok globally in SAP so we have pushed work back a few days. Deliveries will not start up again until 12th January. Thankfully we do not sell food.
We have to consolidate orders and freight or the admin will be immense, there will be some double shipping hopefully just for six months but the cost will be 3% more on each product.
If we don't get a trade deal there will be another 4% to add in tariffs.
Things are going to cost more next year. Don't get me started on dealing with NI and Ireland as we sell there
^^^^^
Price worth paying, apparently.
Every 3 weeks you’ll get some powdered egg.
You might be able to swap some nylon stockings for a tin of Spam.
You might be able to swap some nylon stockings for a tin of Spam.
😀
I’m keeping my weekend pair in case the fan belt goes.
One of our suppliers has sent us this. The impact assessment for Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit, commisioned by Arla Foods.
/blockquote>
One of my friends has been tasked with wading through the new regulations for their imported materials and stock since July and has come to similar conclusions. The amazing thing is that every time he has contacted the govt helpline to ask what the rules are going to be they've told him they don't know yet so he's had to plan for WTO rules only. As he works for a reasonably small family company they have stockpiled as much as they can afford to and store but he reckons they'll run out of stock by mid-February and when it's usually a 6-8 week lead time on his orders they could well be facing a bare warehouse by March. As they don't order in huge amounts they fit their orders with suppliers around the larger orders from bigger companies to keep costs down, come January he fully expects to have to pay full price for his stock as everyone will be fighting for whatever they can get. This means either they have to substantially increase their prices or take the financial hit just to survive. The family owners voted for Brexit but are now vehemently against it as they didn't ever envision a No Deal outcome, it's not what they were told would happen with the 'Oven-ready' deal.
I won't say which company it is as they are in a specialist field so if word gets out of possible troubles they could have orders dry up.
Take former actor Laurence Fox, London’s most fragile man
genuine LOL @ that line 😀
You’re only supposed to dead-cat BAD NEWS, you absolute braindead amateurs
😀
As sharp as ever from Marina
Back to the talks and it looks like Boris is scuppering any remote chance of a deal by lobbing various hand grenades into negotiations
3 weeks and counting until financial implosion
More good news, shipments will cost more, just because of Brexit.
Still waiting for the grown ups, I am sure they'll be along in a minute.
The cabinet have apparently all backed Boris ploughing ahead with No Deal. They’re going to bring the Internal Markets Bill back to parliament tomorrow, to break international law and we’ll and truly depth-charge any chance of even the flimsiest of deals with the EU
And that’s after they all saw the cabinet office report on the consequences
https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1335528942028120066?s=21
We are being governed by insane idealogical zealots who are going to knowingly and willingly usher in, through a deliberate choice, a ‘systemic economic crisis’.
And that’s on top of the huge damage already done by a pandemic that we’re still in the middle of
Utter and complete madness
When does civil war break out?
I think the rioting is pencilled in to begin at about midday on January 1st when the Gammons of Kent storm the lorry parks
We are being governed by insane idealogical zealots who are going to knowingly and willingly usher in, through a deliberate choice, a ‘systemic economic crisis’.Utter and complete madness
Is it? What better way to shape the future of a country, that future being totally libertarian, than to destroy it first? Most of the cabinet and its advisers don't have the talent for reconstruction, classic Dom being the example of being a destroyer only, its whoever will step into the breach in the near future that will be the even greater danger.
This great experiment on being totally free market in a World that is now closing ranks in terms of 'regulated' trade deals means we will fail and pay a high price for it.
The last major attempt at free markets in the uk ended with a couple of million dead through starvation and disease.
Well here we nearly are people.
After 4 years and 19,000 pages of debate and negotiation, we're but a few days (hours even) away from knowing if we have a deal or no deal.
I'd like to still understand if any leavers are standing positive about what's happened and about to happen. This place can be an echo chamber on a regular basis.
No matter how shitty things work out economically in the short term, I remain optimistic that the UK can gather it's entrepreneurs together and have a seismic shift in where and how we do trade.
My pain remains the loss of the working collaboration that was us in the EU.
I also think the whole brexit issue has been used to hide our own politicians and societies failings. I'm concerned that once this delusion has been exposed to more people, we will see a doubling down of lies and the division of Nations. See Trump.
So, short term predictions until June 2021 below...
And long term predictions even further below..
The leavers in my family who were crowing about it have now shut up completely and haven't mentioned it for months so I think for them its now been realised how stupid it all is
So, short term predictions until June 2021 below…
Shortages of medicines and fresh food will be obvious. Ever increasing flight of financial services and associated jobs into the EU. Huge delays at the border. Trouble in NI
And long term predictions even further below..
London financial services market collapses completely. Inflation goes up massivly. Food shirtage is NI, Turbocharged austerity from the tories, massive cuts to employment and environmental protections. No trade deals sign. Huge disputes under WTO. Massive privitisation of the NHS in England
Johnson and most of his cabal swan off to spend more time with their money
ireland is united, Scotland is independent
UK can gather it’s entrepreneurs together and have a seismic shift in where and how we do trade.
Not going to happen in any way at all. Massive recession coming. Nothing can replace the trade we have with the EU and no trade deals will be signed tghat are at all significant
Reading TJ's post brings to mind the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse - Famine, Death, War and Conquest.
Schadenfreude ahoy! 🙂
First signal of the white flag being dusted off or more rattling of the empty cage? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55217535
This whole sorry mess is because of the ongoing civil war in the Tory party. The rest of us are just collateral damage
Let’s not forget the Labour Party’s part in facilitating all this. As the real shitsorm approaches, Lexiteer Owen Jones, who campaigned for leave, is today busy trying to re-write history to absolve him, Magic Grandad, and his Lexiteer mates of their part in this car crash
https://twitter.com/guardianopinion/status/1335950448449089536?s=21
He’s also now blaming remainers. So he can **** right off too!
Just a reminder of what he was saying shortly before the referendum
https://twitter.com/femi_sorry/status/1335983531181432837?s=21
Seems pretty much everybody who supported this impending catastrophe is now denying it and blaming everyone else instead
Binners - owen jones should have ****ed right off long before now.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-06/the-12-reasonable-worst-case-outcomes-if-brexit-talks-collapse
I asked the government for a comment. This is what a spokesperson said:...
..."It’s vital that businesses and citizens prepare now for the opportunities and changes at the end of the transition period, and intensive planning is underway to support them to get ready.
"This includes launching a comprehensive communications campaign to make sure everyone knows what they need to do to prepare".
Three weeks to go and you're going to launch that info campaign? FFS...
Did Frost not thriow another handgrenade in yesterday? I can't find the news story now
its still no deal. JOhnson and Frost have thrown hand grenades everytime a deal looks close. NO intention of getting a deal
TJ lighten up. That level of doom is damaging to your wellbeing 😉
I actually think there will be a deal, I always have done. There is simply too much at stake for there not to be. Even the nutters in the tory party know that, and as long as they get to say 'we left' and more importantly be seen by the voters to have delivered on their promise then they'll accept whatever compromises need to be delivered to get a deal, especially if those compromises can be hidden from the people.
So I suspect something (maybe not a deal, but some sort of 'agreement') will be cobbled together at the last minute which saves everyone's faces. January will come and there will be some/a lot of disruption, but the vast majority of people in the country, especially those at the bottom, will see very little difference in their everyday lives, and it'll be like the millenium bug all over again.
TJ does have a point long term however. This won't be the end of brexit, it'll move to a new phase where the nutters want to destroy whatever is agreed and move to a US style economy with all the things we supposedly don't want yet keep voting for. Democracy is a bitch isn't it!
Channel 4 news reporting on what a total and utter shambles this is
The IT systems haven’t even been tested yet, and hauliers still have no idea what paperwork will be needed to get a truck through customs.
There’s going to be very little to laugh at on January 1st, but watching the Brexit-voting gammons of Kent go postal about now living in an enormous lorry park with hairy-arsed truckers having a dump in their gardens is going to be amusing
TJ lighten up. That level of doom is damaging to your wellbeing 😉
Not at all - its just being realistic and understanding what is happening and why
I am not worrying or fretting - I can just see the game being played. there has never been any intention of getting a deal by Johnson - that why he appointed Frost
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina
Always worth remembering that Argentina was the worlds richest country at the turn of the 20th century and is now... Yes it can happen to the UK, there is nothing special about this country that means it won't be turned into a basket case by populist politicians.
There’s going to be very little to laugh at on January 1st, but watching the Brexit-voting gammons of Kent go postal about now living in an enormous lorry park with hairy-arsed truckers having a dump in their gardens is going to be amusing
Plenty of job opportunities to provide services to Lorry drivers parked up for a couple of days.
I suppose there is a faint chance of a deal of some sort but it will be such a thin and flimsy thing that it will do nothing to alleviate the issues.
Progress on the issues of EU fleets’ access to British fishing waters, as reported by the Guardian, was upended late on Sunday night when Frost tabled new demands about the ownership of vessels in British seas. Under the proposals, any majority-owned vessels would not be allowed to sail under the UK flag, sources in Brussels said.
From the grauniad
Blimey have they only just raised that? This was an issue way back in the Thatcher era, you'd have thunk they would have flagged the issue of equitable ownership of vessels by now if they were concerned about it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(Factortame_Ltd)_v_Secretary_of_State_for_Transport
Its a deliberate hand granade to stop any chance of a deal. Every time a deal looks close either Frost of Johnson chucks a hand grenade in. Its not accidental. See finance bill etc etc
that it will do nothing to alleviate the issues.
In my view the issues brexit causes is the icing on the cake that we've created over a long time. Again, maybe I'm too optimistic, but we could start to sort some of these issues out with good politicians. Sadly, I don't we have good politicians and a good proportion of the UK voters can't see it. I think those of us in NI, Wales and Scotland can see an alternative...
dazh
Full Memberand it’ll be like the millenium bug all over again.
😂
That'll be the millennium bug where huge amounts of time and money were expended to make sure there weren't issues, compared to Brexit where no one quite knows just what is happening in a couple of weeks.
compared to Brexit where no one quite knows just what is happening in a couple of weeks.
And for a long time everyone thought the same about the millenium bug. I'm not saying they've put loads of work in like they did pre-2000, quite the opposite in fact, but I'm pretty confident that most people come January will look around, shrug their shoulders, and wonder what all the fuss was about.
The trouble with brexit, if you take away the fluffy cultural stuff about free movement, no borders etc is that it's a dispute about trade policy and standardisation. I don't know about you, but even after 4 years of wall to wall coverage, I know very few people who are interested in or bothered about tariffs, EU safety standards, working time directives or any of the other stuff that the EU excels at. The problem is not that it's not important, but that people don't give a shit.
Is all this not just Boris being able to make himself the one that saved the brexit deal.
Off he goes, our shining knight going to confront the foreign hordes on enemy territory. He'll come back claiming victory and everyone will either breathe a sigh of relief or will be celebrating once again getting one over the krauts and frogs. The more I see of this the more I think it's stage managed to benefit one person: Boris Johnson.
Bill Clinton said '...it's the economy, stupid'.
A lot of people who, so far, have expressed either disinterest in or support for brexit will
be forced to live with the truth in those few words.
Price increases resulting from tariffs and a weakening £ will affect everyone; when those increases start to hit there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth - we didn't expect this, why has this happened and so on.
daz, people can ignore many things but faced with unavoidable price rises which have a direct and personal impact cannot be ignored or wished away.
The job market is another area where direct and personal impacts will force a realisation of the utter madness of brexit.
If/when the holiday and travel market recovers how many people understand how their european hols will be affected?
I agree with Frank.
Very sadly I have had to take the view that I can watch from the sides to a point as my job won't be affected by this stuff, and financially we can ride it out.
i got incredibly angry about all of this and the effect on the poor buggers who are going to get screwed, but then realised it wasn't good for me so while I have sympathy for what will happen ultimately people will reap what they sow.
Frank the pound has already weakened massively since 2016 and prices have risen considerably. Do you see anyone protesting?
Dazh - I think the adverse and unexpected effects are going to be so noticeable that people will see it. Stuff like having to queue more to get thru airports as we can no longer use the electronic scanners for passports and have to go thru the non eu channels. Already we have heard screams from the ex pats about how they cannot afford health insurance. Food price increases and shortages, job losses and inability to get mail order so easily from the EU countries will all have an effect.
dazh, agree that £ has weakened against EUR since the referendum but in the food sector manufacturers/processors have been able to hide most of the effects by using the
long-established tactic of maintaining prices or minimising increases by reducing pack sizes.
Heinz were into that game a long time when they introduced their 'euro can' sizing - translation is it's smaller - and kept price unchanged.
There's a limit to how far you can stretch that tactic.
Food companies will probably use the end of trade negotiations - with or without a deal - to
increase prices; brexit mate, innit.
Most 'sensible' leave voters won't be happy (and I'm sure the majority are sensible). with the negative consequences: price rises, queues at ports, holiday hassles & extra expense, factory closures, The Brexiteers will spin this as the EUs fault but most will know its a direct consequence of their vote.
Whether they will admit that is something else
I still think that Johnson will concede at the last minute
I don't see how the ERG headbangers will ever agree to any LPF agreements.
Daniel “Absolutely nobody is talking about threatening our place in the single market” Hannan is on Newsnight saying that the EU… “can’t let go”… not sure how you get a cooperative arrangement in place with that kind of attitude.