You haven't posted the victory spoils from the last one yet 🙂
for sure. I think 10 -20 seats short of a majority 'cos the anti tory vote in remain areas will be split and that his brexiteer stance will be used as a weapon. Polls are indicating this right now and closing
I will buy you a slap up Greggs supper if by the end of Labour’s next term that we don’t have closer economic ties to the EU.
Hmm - needs a bit of definition - a few minor things won't do but yes in principle. I'm gonna be so fat 🙂
and yes - brexit is an absolute red line for me. I cannot ever vote for a brexiteer party. fortunately the tories have no chance in my seat. In a tory / labour marginal that might be tested as I normal vote tactically anti tory
In that case, can I propose our usual pastry-based wager? 😃
Labour are relying on keeping the red wall racists onside and appealing to disillusioned SNP voters to get a majority (not me speculating, that's what they've said).
This is two groups of voters who have diametrically opposed views when it comes to Europe.
Starmer has decided to ignore Scotland (despite focusing on it, apparently) and simply pander to the red-wall racists.
It takes a particular kind of arrogance to assume this is going to result in significant gains in Scotland.
Would voting reform be considered too revolutionary for your philosophy?
I don't think either of the two parties that are fighting for this next election are interested in voting reform. Voting reform is not at the top of my political wish list when there are folks on or below the breadline, and we need to sort out more pressing issues. And while I do believe that govts can do more than one thing at a time, without a massive majority and several terms in office, most have ****ed it up when presented with the opportunity.
I don't think there's an appetite for voting reform in the country, beyond nerdy political threads like this one, and given the smug half assed condensation the last opportunity for referendum was handed down, I doubt they'd be another coming anytime soon.
Strong appetite for voting reform in Scotland - because we have seen it works Voting reform would mean never having a tory government again more than likely and certainlay not a far right one like we have now. It would mean centrerist coalitions and the majority in the UK are leftish
along with reversing brexit its a key thing to make the UK a functioning 21st century social democracy
It takes a particular kind of arrogance to assume this is going to result in significant gains in Scotland.
To make gains in Scotland all you have to do is rely on the cops arresting your opponents every now and again to keep reminding the public that there's "something something shifty" going on The SNP will suffer becasue of it, I'm not sure that arrogance has anything to do with politic realities.
Looking forward to the future Question Time where they go to a more broadminded city location and speak to an audience or remainers/ rejoiners who in contrast may be made up of predominately under 50's about their opinions on Brexit, that is going to happen isn't it? Isn't it? Baring the odd one or two the leaver audience fulfilled the brief from the opening shot to the last. Not many youthful faces there...
To make gains in Scotland all you have to do is rely on the cops arresting your opponents every now and again to keep reminding the public that there’s “something something shifty” going on The SNP will suffer becasue of it, I’m not sure that arrogance has anything to do with politic realities.
I love the fact that you have appointed yourself the arbitrator of 'political realities'.
Did you make yourself a hat?
Voting reform is not at the top of my political wish list when there are folks on or below the breadline, and we need to sort out more pressing issues.
You do realise that until the two major parties stop pandering to a tiny minority of the population we are always going to have far too many people below the breadline?
It would mean centrerist coalitions
This study will tell you that overall collation govts do worse than single executive govts at keeping their election promises, collation govts who's policies are closely aligned do better, but still worse than single executives at keeping election pledges.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/26379508
This study will tell you that overall collation govts do worse than single executive govts at keeping their election promises, collation govts who’s policies are closely aligned do better, but still worse than single executives at keeping election pledges.
Of course they do. That's the point.
If you have a minority of the population imposing it's views on the majority that's not really a price worth paying in the name of 'getting things done' or 'keeping election manifesto pledges'.
matt_outandaboutFull Member
This new party?
https://www.trueandfairparty.uk/
Yes, that one, @matt_outandabout.
My friend is running as a candidate, and I quite like a lot of what they're saying, although I worry that they'll take some of the labour vote here and that's the only party that could possibly challenge the tories in this constituency...
Voting reform is not at the top of my political wish list when there are folks on or below the breadline
Voting reform is the thing that could get people off the breadline.
My position - a bit repetitive, but hey, seven years today and the same basic questions are being asked i.e. Name one tangible benefit of Brexit to the general population...
Tories have to own Brexit now. They turned themselves into a populist-nationalist Brexit Party - courting the votes of the hard of thinking with the connivance of their mates.
Labour have to be seen to want to make Brexit work. Or at least that is what Starmer's advisers are telling him. He has to pretend to believe a totally idiotic policy can be made to work. He's a clever bloke - it follows that he cannot personally believe this to be true. The problem is that if he reopens the debate fully he will lose the racist moron vote overnight. His strategists are telling him the racist moron vote is more important than the floating vote between LibDem/Green and Labour.
That is fine. Labour don't think they need my vote. They won't be getting it for one main reason. I truly hate the way Brexit has corrupted political discourse in this country. To lead an intelligent, educated former QC to have to pretend that an idiotic act is somehow OK...? So, I refuse to vote for anyone who won't call Brexit out for what it is - namely a nation-level screw up.
But here's the kicker. If Starmer's strategists are correct, my vote is not required for a Labour majority, right? So, I will vote Libdem safe in the knowledge that it still means a Labour majority and I have not surrendered my principles. That is a kind of win-win.
Hope those Starmer Strategists are right...
EDIT: Or I could vote for Gina Miller's party.
My friend is running as a candidate, and I quite like a lot of what they’re saying, although I worry that they’ll take some of the labour vote here and that’s the only party that could possibly challenge the tories in this constituency…
It depends what you want your vote to do.
A lot of people will tell you a vote for anyone other than Labour is a wasted vote. That takes a very narrow and quite frankly childish view where the most important thing is that the right team wins.
If you and enough voters voted for a party that represents what you want to see happen, Labour will take notice.
Even if the party you vote for never wins a seat it can still massively affect the country if it forces the mainstream parties to chase your vote by adopting the policies you want to see enacted.
Given just how Tory-lite this incarnation of Labour is, I would say a vote for Labour is the real wasted vote in this scenario.
Someone had to try the reverse UKIP thing, hadn't predicted it would be Miller. Doomed to failure though, UKIP may have presented itself successfully as a grass roots organisation, but ultimately without right wing newspaper support and the resulting TV media amplification (such as QT) it would have withered on the vine. There is no corresponding media support or route for Miller's party. She'll get the occasional radio and TV panel slot, but nothing comparable to what Farage achieved when it mattered most for his party.
If you and enough voters voted for a party that represents what you want to see happen, Labour will take notice.
What you might be hoping is that enough other people will hold their noses and vote to get the Tories out, while you get the warm glow of voting for an option that better matches your aims. Feels nice. Not a risk I'll be taking (again) in my seat... I did that when Brown and Miliband led Labour... and so part of "all this" mess, including Brexit, is my fault. The warm glow of voting for third placed parties to make my policy point is now stone cold dead.
If we had PR for UK wide elections it would all be different. Of course. But we don't.
Bruce, how do you plan to get voter reform implemented without having voter reform in place already to ensure that the vote for voter reform comes out in favour of voter reform?
"'scuse me government, would you mind passing this legeslation that means you wont be in government much in future...."
" Sure, yeah. After all we've always had the needs of the populace at the forefront of our policies...."
Bruce, how do you plan to get voter reform implemented without having voter reform in place already to ensure that the vote for voter reform comes out in favour of voter reform?
UKIP got us out of the EU without ever winning a seat.
UKIP got us out of the EU without ever winning a seat.
UKIP mobilised idiocy and prejudice. A pro-rejoin party can't do that.
UKIP mobilised idiocy and prejudice. A pro-rejoin party can’t do that.
UKIP stole Tory votes and forced them to chase them by moving further and further right (which caused Labour to move further and further right).
If a pro-rejoin pro-voting reform party starts stealing Labour votes Labour will chase after them.
he is running scared of racists in those northern constituencies
You've got to move from this childish belief that the pro-Brexit vote was the result of the prejudices of provincial thickos and racists.
I do, however, agree with you that Starmer is not going to pursue joining the EU - at least in a first parliament. He has said exactly that. It might be that in 5 years' time he comes back with a new manifesto to seek a mandate to begin negotiations. I agree with you that rejoiners who think Starmer is saying all this with a nod and a wink are self-deluding. I disagree with you that it is a bad idea at this juncture.
You’ve got to move from this childish belief that the pro-Brexit vote was the result of the prejudices of provincial thickos and racists.
Nothing childish about it. Its well proven especially in those red wall seats. Yes it was more than that but that group - the red wall racists is who Starmer is pandering to. ukip played nicely on their prejudices
But here’s the kicker. If Starmer’s strategists are correct, my vote is not required for a Labour majority, right?
I do wonder who the Labour supporters on here are going to be angry at if Labour manage to lose the next election. Will it be Starmer and his strategists or those of us who choose not to vote Labour because they offer nothing other than being a marginally less shit version of the Tories.
My guess is it's going to be our fault.
I think we are conflating the people who are still convinced it was the right thing and being very vocal about it, and those who voted for it in 2016 for a myriad of other reasons. It's amazing how corrosive years of austerity, financial hopelessness, erosion of public services and loss of sense of community can be to your mindset.
My feeling is that a lot of people would find it hard to put into words what drove them to vote Leave, perhaps an emotional response, a general malaise and feeling of being forgotten and ignored - which made them vote for a change, rather than the status quo. Hoping for something a bit better, which of course was never coming.
TV crews and other journalists don't tend to interview those people, perhaps because they regret it, don't want to appear foolish, or perhaps because they just don't want to talk to reporters, so you tend to hear from people who have fixed (and often quite unpleasant) views.
Finally someone has delivered a worthy reason for brexit.
Where can I sign up for ukip?
You’ve got to move from this childish belief that the pro-Brexit vote was the result of the prejudices of provincial thickos and racists.
Nah I'm alright, ive watched a few YouTube clips of QT last night with the ****ing thick pig-ignorant uninformed dickheads and my opinion of the average Brexit voter is entirely valid.
Roofs ,it's all because of roofs.
or those of us who choose not to vote Labour because they offer nothing other than being a marginally less shit version of the Tories
In Labour/Tory marginals, those who didn’t vote Labour at the last election (afraid of nationalised broadband or whatever pitiful excuse they have) are partly to blame for the mess of the last four years. Come the next election, if people don’t vote to unseat Tory MPs, and they squeak in, yes, they will be partly to blame. I’ve been that person many times. Never again. Better than the Tories but not exactly what I want, because of compromises made for people I don’t agree with, be it on EU relations or buying school or university places or whatever… just got to suck it up and help take power off the Tories, accepting a small shift rather than a big jump to where I want the UK be.
thick pig-ignorant uninformed dickheads
...and it's exactly this kind of rubbish that means people skip over thinking what the vote was really about, to glom on to "rejoin EU now" as the fix to everything, to be amazed when it doesn't get you elected, and to fail to fix anything at all.
It wasn't about roofs it was the unfairness that we adhered to the rules and no-one else did.
Unfortunately in struggling to come up with an example of this her brain managed to grasp on something else that was bouncing around inside her cerebrum that old favourite for oldies "Health and Safety gorn mad"
It wasn’t about roofs it was the unfairness that we adhered to the rules and no-one else did.
Obviously, all countries applied different rules in slightly different ways... anyone living in or visiting multiple countries knew that (prime example in our case is how long and hard "we" fought against minimum holiday and maximum unpaid overtime rules)... but, for some reason, people in the UK so often felt it was just others resisting rules, and our government overzealously applying them. Nonsense, of course. Anyone now dealing with German customs will tell you that being overly flexible with the rules isn't really their thing... where as VAT collection in Greece... all countries quite different... harmonisation is always slow and has limits... but no one had more opt outs and exceptions in place than the UK.
Obviously she was planted by the BBC to make brexit voters look as thick as pig shit.
In Labour/Tory marginals, those who didn’t vote Labour at the last election (afraid of nationalised broadband or whatever pitiful excuse they have) are partly to blame for the mess of the last four years.
True, but in this case the 'pitiful excuse' will be that they won't vote for a party that has no policies they agree with and seem to be a continuation of the status quo with the promise they will do it a bit more competently.
Given the choice between voting for a party all of whose major policies I broadly agree with and a party with no major policies I agree with I'll choose the one I agree with. Even if that means I don't get to be on the winning team.
John Curtis analysis
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/23/britain-2016-brexit-vote-eu-referendum-labour
I think an entire narrative is being constructed around Roof Lady to try to imagine she had a point. She really didnt. She had a false preconception then created a bullshit narrative around it because that's what morons do.
Funnily enough listening to her and thinking about roofs... one word sprung into my head - bungalow. Which is ironic as they don't have anything upstairs either.
🤡🇬🇧🤡🇬🇧🤡🇬🇧🤡🇬🇧🤡
Thanks for the link TJ. Is that really any different from where UK sentiment was before the referendum was called though? Where the public are now, and where they end up if Labour make the next election about Brexit and the campaigns take on an in/out narrative are two very different things.
Some follow on commentary in the same paper…
Not agreeing with it, just posting it.
Do agree with this bit though…
As for the terms of our exit, ask anyone who buys from, sells to or is stuck in a queue to visit the continent if we enjoy the “exact same benefits” we once did.
…b2c trade across the border is a ******* mess post Brexit. I don’t think it’s something most people give a shit about though. Until it’s their employer calling in the administrators.
Yes - its a huge change from pre brexit. I remain convinced that labours brexiteer stance will cost them more seats than it gains as folk vote SNP / Green / Lib Dem as a pro europe vote and thus let tories / SNP in in many seats.
Its also still a year till the election - how much further pro europe is the public sentiment going to shift? How much more would it shift with labour changing to a pro EU stance?
Many people might want to be rid of the Tories and to reverse Brexit… but only one of those things can be achieved in one day of voting… the other is a decade plus long project. I know you think otherwise. But Labour can’t make the claims that you do, they’d be pulled apart on them.
But Labour can’t make the claims that you do, they
’d be pulled apart on themhave to pander to the racists.
FTFY.
'Pulled apart' might suggest there is an argument to unpick. To any sane person, there isn't if you are talking about the desirability of reversing all or some of Brexit.
I mean what would be involved, the path needed and the timescale required to “reverse Brexit” or join the CU&SM. It is a long slow journey, if Labour promised it as a quick and easy fix to the countries ills they’d be called out on it. And rightly so. Normalising and steadying the current relationship with the EU and other European countries is all that can be done this year and next. Promising anything else right now is a good way for minority parties to shore up their support… Labour would need a plan to make it happen though… what’s yours? How long would it take? Who would need to brought on board, and how?
Labour would need a plan to make it happen though… what’s yours?
Get elected, have piss up, open negotiations the next day.
I don't have to pretend, though. 🤷♂️
Now it’s Biden stopping us getting all those Brexit goodies…
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1785104/biden-iain-duncan-smith-brexit-northern-ireland
IDS is a prime example of failing upwards, absolutely unbelievable that he is considered a grandee by anyone but then it is the Daily Express.
US sources have claimed to the Daily Express US that the President had received a special briefing after his Northern Ireland visit to say he had insulted America's number one ally.
Why, what did he say about Saudi Arabia???
Daily Express headline today is demanding Rishi "talks up" Brexit.
Popcorn gifs at the ready.
There is Twitter gossip about the Tories not being happy with Sunak's performance, and letters are coming in to the 1922 committee.
Daily Express is full of Thames Water sewage outfall. Brexit is dead and I'm sure even the Conservatives are not so stupid as to not know this. Their election woes are not going to be fixed with a few Brexit slogans.
Daily Express headline today is demanding Rishi “talks up” Brexit.
So what?
More lies about something that was a pack of lies to start with and has been a pack of lies ever since.
🤷♂️
We need more EU workers, admits leading Tory Brexiter
George Eustice, the former environment secretary, is calling for a reciprocal visa scheme so that under-35s can work across the EU and Britain
there is nothing to say to this but Duh!
^^^^
It was never about reality.
🤷♂️
Right wing libertarians having buyer remorse?
I still think the whole brexit saga needs to be investigated as the outcome has done appalling damage to the UK triggered by ideology.
I still think the whole brexit saga needs to be investigated as the outcome has done appalling damage to the UK triggered by ideology.
I'm sure the damage they have done is so serious and long term that it could be considered treason.
And if it really was bankrolled by "Russia" and self interested fund managers, I'm not sure there could be any other description.
there is nothing to say to this but Duh!
Hang on. I'm as remainer as anyone here, but in the spirit of fairness rather than just echo-chambering: Brexiteers always wanted to be able to control immigration, not never to have any. So a visa scheme, with limits that can be set and that can be targeted at certain parts of the workforce is not incompatible with the concept of Brexit and was in fact part of what they said they wanted during the campaign.
I'm not supporting it - I thought FoM was ace - but let's be correct here.
A[part from the brexit ultras did say we didn't need EU immigration and it was obvious we did
Brexiteers always wanted to be able to control immigration, not never to have any.
Well, this is the issue, we always had full control over immigration as EU members, we could kick out "wrong 'uns" to are hearts content within the framework of EU law. Which UK was instumental in making, but hey.
Collectivley the UK for whatever reason decided it was too expensive to keep track of immigration, so opened the doors so to speak, and then blamed it on the EU.
An now, quel suprise we still have the same problem, only compounded because we've pissed off a lot of 'would be' highly skilled EU imigrants with bullshit visa requirements, and we still have loads of (arguably unlskilled and without paperwork) desperados in boats trying to get here.
It's a very British problem if ever I saw one.
I’m sure the damage they have done is so serious and long term that it could be considered treason.
To be honest I watched the News Agents on YouTube and the much missed from main TV Emily Maitlis, was making the same point. Worth a watch.
Brexiteers always wanted to be able to control immigration, not never to have any
No, it was never about "controlling immigration". Brexiters used immigration as a dog-whistle issue to get people to vote for them. Having a go at dirty foreigners coming over here, taking our jobs, sponging off the benefits, all the usual nonsense rhetoric.
They've now painted themselves into a corner where they have to make good on all their nonsense promises, but there's no way to do that which does not harm the country.
And once again we come back to 'Which Brexit did you vote for?'.
Something that meant a lot of different things to a lot of different people.
And once again we come back to ‘Which Brexit did you vote for?’.
Well I voted for the status quo (not the band ovs - that would have been horrific).
And why would anyone from the EU want to come here now that Brexit has put up prices for food etc higher in the UK than mainland Europe?
It's a very interesting question... maybe the people fleeing war and depravity are not aware of such knowledge?
They have clearly never been to Bridlington or Bury.
Or Nottingham.
No one in thier right mind, for example, would choose to live somewhere like Dewsbury.
So we have to ask ourselves why.
I’m sure the damage they have done is so serious and long term that it could be considered treason.
Particularly whilst being illegally funded by a hostile foreign government.
You have to hand it Putin - he totally undermined 'western' and European unity - and did so whilst spending very little.
A few bot farms, a bit of illegal funding and buying off a few right wing politicians. It is a quite remarkable achievement if you look at it in a detached manner.
<p style="text-align: left;">Just back from 2 months camping in Spain and France, prices in Spain are very similar to the UK, prices in France if anything are higher, diesal is more expensive than either Spain or the UK</p>
And why would anyone from the EU want to come here now that Brexit has put up prices for food etc higher in the UK than mainland Europe?
Stents lines have invested in a new ferry for Cherbourg Rosslare so EU mainland travellers can avoid UK completely travelling to Ireland and vice versa, a true Brexit bonus for the people of Wales.
A lot of the freight from Ireland is now bypassing the uk.
George Eustice, the former environment secretary, is calling for a reciprocal visa scheme so that under-35s can work across the EU and Britain
Bit ageist 🙂
But it’s definitely bonkers wanting to offer something to the few after taking it away from everyone.
It would be a tangible Brexit benefit thou.
My daughter was working in Cherbourg. Ireland is the new England for holidays with kids, according to the other staff, despite England being so damn close. Bars sell (very good) Irish small brewery ales not British ones, etc. No idea if much trade is being redirected in the same way, but given how much of a ****** it is for SMEs here to send orders to the EU now, I wouldn’t be surprised.
But I thought they needed us more than we needed them?
It’s a very interesting question… maybe the people fleeing war and depravity are not aware of such knowledge?
I was referring to the brexiteers proposal that we now need a scheme to allow people to work between UK & EU more freely.
Stents lines have…
Stenna Line
I’m going to go out on a limb here and have a wild stab at how this will probably play out
Due to labour shortages and pressure from their paymasters, the government will quietly but steadily increase both the numbers of visa’s for EU workers to come to the UK and broaden the categories covered.
There will however be no reciprocal arrangements with the EU, because why would they when they don’t need to?
The result? The UK will have voted to end freedom of movement for its own citizens but it will end up having zero effect on net immigration. And I’m not talking about small ****ing boats!
A really unique kind of stupid!
. I know, I ride with some of them.
Why?
Britain really is a ****ing joke.
No more Cool Britainnia......
Why do I ride with them? We have other things in common such as bikes.
Due to labour shortages and pressure from their paymasters, the government will quietly but steadily increase both the numbers of visa’s for EU workers to come to the UK and broaden the categories covered.
It'll just be seasonal short term workers picking fruit etc. Professionals won't come, and no-one will come for long. Why would you when your permission to stay is contingent on a job which you might not even like? Why be treated as second class? Why go to a country that voted to get rid of you and your kind? There would have to be some compelling economic reason to do so, and that's not really likely.
Gun, foot, shoot.
Alternatively - and more accurate in context of brexit - ready, fire, aim.
This feels like about the tenth time this pointless pinprick trading arrangement has been trotted out. A boost of 0.08% GDP having thrown away >5% through Brexit. Not to mention this shiny new agreement being with countries 10,000 miles away...
Does anyone actually believe in any of this nonsense anymore? Badenoch doesn’t - you can actually hear her smirking when 'announcing' our new partnership.
Brexit - conceived and pushed for by cynics and crooks, voted for by idiots.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55858490