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2023 was probably the most unpredictable year in the bike world yet – what will 2024 hold?
Welcome back to our annual fortune telling session for the mountain bike world. Every year we bring you our thoughts on what will happen in the mountain bike scene, and every year we get some of it nearly right. Sometimes. Sometimes we’re a couple of years ahead.
Last year we correctly predicted chaos in the bike industry, mega price reductions, and the emergence of Continental as a big name in tyres. But none of us said ‘Wiggle CRC will go into administration’ or ‘We’ll end the year with many top riders still looking for contracts’.
Hannah – Managing Editor
Continued Cost Savings
The bike industry is going to continue to look for every cost saving possible. Riders will be dropped, contracts will be rigorously enforced, and teams will get by on shoe string budgets. Until companies have got rid of their backlog of inventory and overstock, budgets are going to be tighter than a merino sock that went through the tumble dryer.
The UK As An Island
As part of those cost savings, expect to see the UK being treated differently. There’ll be bike models we can’t get, and fewer companies with warehouses of stock and staff in the UK. With warehousing in Europe, we’ll see smaller quantities of bikes at higher prices being available in the UK. Unable to find a distributor prepared to risk the cost of stocking us, and unwilling to deal with the hassle of shipping to the UK themselves, some brands will sack us off altogether, at least for the next year or two until other cost pressures are eased.
The Great Overstock Scandal
Frames, components, accessories and whole bikes – the industry is sitting on a whole pile of product that it over-ordered in 2020. It costs to have it sitting in warehouses. If you sell it all cheap, who is going to buy your 2023/24 stock, that you ordered in 2021 before you realised you weren’t going to need it? If you try and sell it slowly and sit on your 2023/24 stock, at some point your 2024/25 stock is going to start biting you too. There is just too much stock in the world, and every way of moving it on is going to cost you money.
Someone is going to take the fashion industry option of dealing with overstock, and destroy the excess to retain the value of the newer stuff. It won’t be recycled, because the cost of separating all the bits will be too high. So it’ll be crushed, or buried, or burned. It may already be happening. And someone will find out, and then it’ll be big news – you can be sure that it’ll be picked up by every media outlet. Cyclist hating media will point out the hypocrisy, cycle friendly media will point the finger at the capitalist systems that led to this position, and the motor and oil industries will make sure everyone knows that cycling isn’t ‘green’ at all. The reputational loss will be huge – possibly even enough to tip those teetering accounts over the edge.
Customer Service Is King
With so many bargains to be had – and the technical gains to be bought so marginal – customer service will become the battleground for attracting market share. Expect to see brands offering service packages with new bikes and big ticket components, apps getting more support add ons, and ever slicker remote purchasing options. In cities, where car replacement cargo and commuter bikes are the market, big brands with shop fronts will start to offer service more akin to car dealerships – with courtesy bikes to cover your service period, and texted reminders to book your bike in for its annual service.
Red Bull Rampage Will Finally Invite Women
It’s finally going to happen: women will get a shot at Red Bull Rampage. 15 men and 5 women will line up to dig in the desert. One event, one day, one site. It’ll all be one competition, but with an extra ‘women’s category’ prize.
Chipps – Editor at Large
Having looked at last year’s predictions of both bike industry doom and gloom, AND much cheapness for buyers, I reckon we were pretty spot on. (Although predicting that there’d only be two mountain bike magazines left in the UK seemed far too zany a year ago…) 2024 is hopefully going to see a slight levelling-out of all of the turmoil, as the companies still standing do a regroup and try to settle things down.
Weathering the weather
I reckon that the fortunes of the whole UK bike industry and event scene will hinge on whether we have a nice Easter or not. The UK weather has been so sucky recently that it’s going to take a warm, dry spring to remind riders that there’s hope for those perfect summer trails on which to ride those ’20 lockdown and ’23 implosion bargains. Just as the wonderful weather in 2020 made lockdowns easier to bear for those who could get outside for exercise, so I reckon the UK needs another decent spring to keep spirits up.
An Olympic glimpse
2024 is, of course, the year of the Paris Olympics, which will see some tech developments for those racing there. Perhaps this will be where we finally catch sight of Shimano’s long-overdue flagship groupset. This would be the ideal teaser for a winter ’24 launch. Who knows what else we might see there… Powered (up and down) droppers? One-piece in-moulded tyre/rim combos? AI powered bike computers that tell you when to attack?
Aero at all costs
While Benji can see through-headset cables going away for trail bikes, I reckon that for cross country race bikes, they’ll remain, along with a host of other aero measures. Once bikes are as fast, light and efficient as you can make them (for now), where do you go? Even though aero gains are minimal under 20km/h, for XC racers, who do reach those speeds several times a lap, every little helps. Expect to see hidden cables, one piece bar/stems, smooth chainrings, aero helmets and shoe covers for the faster, smoother races as the influence of fast gravel merges with XC.
Injuries
We’re going to see some more season-ending injuries in events. With the skills and speed of modern athletes and the incessant demand for more action from TV/Internet/Instagram audiences, the occurrence of riders pushing too hard on unforgiving terrain is only going to increase, leading to more serious injuries. And events like Gee Atherton’s swift return to riding will only go to reinforce riders’ false senses of invincibility…
I’m such a positive, cheery guy aren’t I?
Community Chest
By way of balance, my parting prediction is the (continued) rise of mates-organised ‘folk events’. Non-competitive get-togethers for friends and not-friends for the vast majority of riders who don’t race, but who like the idea of a gathering of like-minded friends. Retro bike show/shine/ride get-togethers, trail clearing gatherings, big outings of friends who used to race but who want to chat and spin instead… film festivals, beer festivals and food festivals will all get little bike chapters as everyone resolves to use the internet for contact, communication and action in the real world, rather than wasting time scrolling.
Benji – Tech Editor
Shimano Do Something
New drivetrain? Saint 11-speed? Actually wire-less Di2 (Di3?)? New ebike motors (mid-power maybe?)? After this year’s SRAMfest of Transmissions and Powertrains etc, the ball in very firmly back in Shimano’s court. Again.
Technical Fabric Changes
Plenty of global legislation kicks in next year as regards the eco-friendliness of chemicals used in fabrics. A few big name fabric/membrane bods will launch revised stuff. And there will be more of a focus on how to care/wash for technical fabric garments. Because how we wash and treat stuff will really affect how clothing performs, more than ever.
World Cup Bad Vibes Intensify
I dunno. It just feels like something is amiss doesn’t it? I can’t remember the last time I came across a good story about World Cup racing (aside from the actual racing being better than ever that is, which is nice).
Geometry Will Still Fall Short
Bikes are kinda long enough in reach now. And steep enough in seat angle. But the rest of chart is still not-quite-there IMO. Chain stays are still overly short. BB heights are still noughties low-slung for some reason. Stack height is nowhere near for tall riders. And we’re still having issues with running dropper posts longer than 170mm on long travel bikes. Crazy. Bike designers! Don’t think your work is done. Get back to getting there!
Mullets Will Grow, Headset Routing Will Fade Away
Whilst I am personally not that arsed about mullets (I can take em or leave em, and generally just like big wheels at both ends), I think mixed wheel bikes are established – and expected – now in bike ranges. And I genuinely do think cables-thru-headset will ‘do one’ by the time we start to see MY2025 [sic] bikes appearing.
Mark – Publisher
Media shake-up will continue
We lost a lot pf good media brands in 2023 and while I think that those that remain will probably make it through the year, they will probably look a lot different at the end of ’24. How we watch mountain biking on screens is in for an uncertain year ahead. We are already missing Red Bull as a provider of racing and those that have stepped in to replace RB have a lot of figuring out to do to work out how to make it work.
Social Media continues to evolve
Still on the topic of media consumption the slow demise of social media will continue and thankfully for more media brands the return of loyal readers to their own platforms will begin to happen. Brands will look to those platforms as safe(er) spaces and with Google starting to kill off the 3rd party cookie I think we can look forward to fewer and better ads in our browsers.
More Paywalls ahead
With Google killing off so much transitory traffic to websites and with AI set to deliver more answers directly in search rather then sending people to the websites themselves, the revenues that media rely on will shift more to the users side. This will mean smaller numbers of users but those users will be more valuable to media brands and will get the best content after they sign up.
Amanda – Art Director
Shimano – What Benji said!
I’ve been thinking for a while now that Shimano really needs to Do Something. At the very least, update the App for Di2 as it’s shamefully outdated in design and function.
Apple Magic Mouse
I know it’s not bike related but it I use an iMac to design Singletrack World magazine, so loosely this is relevant. MagSafe Mouse with a mouse pad that charges it in use. HOW DOES THAT NOT EXIST YET.
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