[Closed] Worst Winter for decades imminant?

Congrats on the first Snowpocalypse post of the season.

Nah those "experts" are just speculating to get air time. It might be the worst for years, but then it might not.

They can hardly get the weather right for tomorrow never mind next month.

It's in the Express, it [i]must[/i] be true.

I flaming hope not, hate heavy snow, makes trails unridable and travel a nightmare.

+1

It's great when advice is given such as 'don't travel unless your journey is essential'.

Define 'essential'.

[url= http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/10361672/Power-failure-as-Britain-at-highest-risk-of-winter-blackouts-for-almost-a-decade.html ]Power failure as Britain at highest risk of winter blackouts for almost a decade[/url]

I blame the last Labour government.

The Express seem to have 3 headlines they have on rotation. Some stuff about Diana, house prices or the weather.

Utter bobbins 😆

I'm pretty sure The Express run this article [i]every[/i] year.

Snow in quite a few alpine ski resorts already

Ohh I doooo hope so, we haven't had a winter since the last one 😆

Better buy your fatbike now...

Some of us live for winter. 🙂

Snow in quite a few alpine ski resorts already

Others have been enjoying the unusually warm weather.

[img] [/img]

Yeah, as already said, the Express do the same thing every winter and every winter they get it wrong. There was an article (possibly BBC website- I'll try and find) about the Express using some spurious weather 'experts' for all of their long term forecasting.

There will be a killer death bug epidemic within the next week as well.

They don't get wrong every winter. The winter of 2009/10 was the coldest in decades.

Global warming innit!

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

Oh, no, hang on... its the other one:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/expect-more-extreme-winters-thanks-to-global-warming-say-scientists-2168418.html

😉

They don't get wrong every winter. The winter of 2009/10 was the coldest in decades.

Well I guess if you march out the same headline every year you're going to get it right once.

If it had been reported in the Daily Wail, they'd have 2 options:

1) Snow gives you cancer
2) Snow caused by illegal immigrants

The Express seem to have 3 headlines they have on rotation. Some stuff about Diana, house prices or the weather.
Utter bobbins

Your missing 'miracle pill cures chronic condition (usually arthritis)'

SNOWMAGGEDON!

Profile of Powell here.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/jun/15/daily-express-weather-forecast-jonathan-powell

Met Office (ie real proper meteorological research organisation with actual scientists and stuff) is here

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/10/12/winter-forecasting-responding-to-the-headlines/

http://www.scotsman.com/news/environment/scotland-s-weather-goodbye-summer-hello-snow-1-3132907
Brrrrring it on. I like biking all year round

Last three winters here in Derbyshire have involved proper snowy/cold spells, and we are not in the higher parts of the county. I found a road blocked on a ride in April this year!

Given the low energy reserves as well, and the reported lack of preparedness in the NHS, if all predictions came true then at least the forecast "pensions" crisis will be reduced. 😕

Oh, no, hang on... its the other one:

Of course the real headline is "Climate science is complex and can't be summed up in one headline"

But with almost every system, if you put more energy in you get more extreme oscillations.

*panics and orders Fatbike

Of course the real headline is "Climate science is complex and can't be summed up in one headline"

Z-11 knows that. He is fully aware that what was once called 'global warming' is now called 'climate change' precisely because the consequences are highly complex and inevitably people will be ridiculously over-simplistic.

However as someone with a right-wing neoconservative agenda he feels duty-bound to push at every conceivable opportunity the Tea Party line that climate change is a global communist conspiracy who's real aim is to tax everyone more.

Bring it on 🙂

It might be [u]imminent[/u], but certainly not 'imminant'.

Either way, it won't keep me off the trails. In fact, it can turn local rides into epics if it snows a fair bit, which is good for the variety.

Vantage Weather Services, where they get their information from, here:

http://vantageweatherservices.co.uk/index.html

The long range forecast for November 2013:

[i]November 2013

November looks to see more evenly balanced weather across the country, with a lessening degree of rainfall nationwide. Apart perhaps from the far north west, most areas should see a mix of dry, bright, and sunny weather, with a decreased amount of wet and windy conditions. Temperatures late month may well induce some early snow across the hills of Scotland and to the north of England. Towards the middle and latter part of the month under clear skies, frost activity can be expected, leading to chilly, bright, and crisp autumnal days. On balance, rainfall is expected to come in below the average for the majority of areas, with temperatures reflecting the norm.[/i]

It doesn't even match the article, in any way.

The long range forecast for November 2013:

Sounds great!

I'll get to use my ice tyres for more than the puffer then.
Excellent.

The Express makes the news come alive , especially the copy that comes out on the 29th of each month.

[img] ?177[/img]

Can I get in the first heat wave warning for 2014 that will kill us all for roughly June ish next year please

Same old same old

the only true weather forecast is the weather stone! 8)

Fingers crossed for just such a searingly cold and apocalyptically snowy winter as they are predicting.

Why? Do you want travel chaos, rolling power cuts, shortages in the supermarkets, increased mortality among the vulnerable groups in society, a depressed economy, and the tabloids as well as BBC going into weather sensationalism overload?

Anyway, as the tabloids are predicting it, it is less likely to happen.

Why?

Because I like skiing. Everyone else can just MTFU.

They can't reliably predict further than 5 days ahead, possibly 10, winter could go either way at the moment. I reckon its going to be mild overall 😀

These forecasts are dependent on a number of variables, the failure of any one of which will cause the model to pan out differently.

Also there is a fundamental misunderstanding of what a meteorologist means when (if!) they say 'worst winter for decades likely'. Many of the public take it literally and start stocking up. Quite often what it actually means is 'we ran the model 1000 times and 600 times the outcome was a winter where temperatures were lower and snowfalls were higher than the average over the last 30 years.'

Or summint like that.

Loads of berries on the trees this year, its supposed to be a sign of a bad winter.

[img] [/img]

If an easterly wind on St Swithin's Day turns the leaves on the trees so that they are facing up, it will snow in March.

That one never fails, mark my words,