Aren’t current polls adjusted to account for errors in the last election polling estimates?

Ref. the $2 a day and trickle down. Wealth has never been created by the richest. It is simply centralised by them. All the graph shows is that the poorest are creating more for themselves.

DrJ – Member
From which you conclude? Something about the interview? Or something about the BBC?

Assuming they were watching the same thing I was, it says way more about the BBC I reckon. Was hoping that was kind of implicit in my ellipsis.

enough to provide a complete offset on WTO tariffs for exporters for at least the first 5 years.

Are you suggesting that the government subsidises all imports and exports?
I’d imagine some fairly hefty bad feeling for not fulfilling the obligations to the EU – the UK’s largest trading partner.

sense of proportion:

For Information: numbers USA (the producers of that vid) is an anti immigration organisation whose figures and facts have been questioned by the Southern Poverty Law Centre, and Factcheck, and is one of many organisations founded and run by John Tanton who is pro eugenics and deeply racist.

Have no doubt that as an organisation , it’s primary concern is stopping brown people coming to the USA, not preventing or solving world poverty

1) A fenced hard border between Northern and Ireland, likely re-igniting the Troubles
2) 900,000 UK citizens resident in EU countries have to return back to live in UK
3) Tariffs on all UK goods exported to the EU, almost certainly triggering a major recession
4) Massive bureaucratic non-tariff barriers to British exports – sixty pages of forms for every consignment
4) No access to the Schengen database and other EU security and policing resources
5) British citizens need to apply for visas to visit EU countries and stand in two hour long queues at many EU airports
6) UK universities removed from World’s leading scientific and research programmes.

“No Deal is Better than a Bad Deal”?

Hmmm, I wonder if Theresa May is wrong on this one as well?

Agree totally with Craig Murray, I was just pointing out as much in the EU thread. ..

No deal is an idiotic stance to take

i have always been pretty scathing in my dislike of Corbyn since he turned up at the steel works in a scruffy jumper when there was the potential for thousands of job losses. However I thought he came across very well in the interview/puclic questioning last night.

I don’t know why the press keep hounding him about stuff he said 35 years ago. I wouldn’t want to be held to what i said 10 years ago let alone 35.

I also think the conservatives (and lib dems) are loosing out by over focus on brexit, I think people a getting bored, I also think that the other EU states will dictate what happens to us whoever we have in charge.

However I thought he came across very well in the interview/puclic questioning last night.

That comes from having a position and sticking to it, and having the confidence to defend it. Theresa May is the exact opposite. She has no detailed or thought-through position on pretty much anything outside of vacuous soundbites. She changes her views depending on how it plays with the focus groups and tabloids (how many u-turns?), and then can’t defend them in any meaningful way, and completely fails to display any confidence or even interest in what she’s saying.

The public can see all this. In the space of 4 weeks she’s gone from being an invincible leader to a dithering wreck. It’s Gordon Brown all over again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends with the same result.

oldnpastit – that list is a joke but a perfect example of taking the very worst possible outcomes, no matter how unlikely and then presenting them as fact / something that will definitely happen.

* Tariffs on all UK goods exported to the EU won’t “almost certainly trigger a major recession” – the typical tariff will add 3% to cost. For most exporters the drop in the pound easily offsets future tariffs and that’s before any tariff related allowances granted by the Government,

* “Massive bureaucratic non-tariff barriers to British exports – sixty pages of forms for every consignment” reads very much like it’s written by someone who has very little experience of export controls / customs brokerage. In reality most documentation is generated automatically and depending on fright routes will be cleared in advance as it moves across borders. The likes of DHL, Expeditors etc. already do this tens of thousands of times a day worldwide for their customers.

* No access to the Schengen database and other EU security and policing resources – would be entirely self defeating for the UK. Why would the EU’s leaders want to make their own citizens less secure?

* British citizens don’t need to apply for trip-specific visas or stand in two hour long queues at many non EU airports. As some of the largest recipients of Brit tourist spending do we seriously think Spain, Greece, Italy etc. would have no interest in speeding the flow of tourists through their airports?

* Many of the World’s leading scientific and research programmes already include institutions in China, Singapore, North America etc. Most of the world’s leading research isn’t exclusive to the EU so the impact is massively over exaggerated.

You realise that May has no intention of salvaging anything from it? Given the chance she’s going to be bloody awkward, insist that no deal is better than a bad deal, and crash us out as hard and as ugly as she possibly can.

This. The farage tweet about Corbyn is very telling about what kind of brexit he thinks May is thinking of, and its not the one the chief instigators of brexit wanted.

One of the ladies in our shop has just done her postal vote.
She lives in a constituency that the libs could take back from the tories , she likes the lib policies and voted to remain.
So she voted Tory as she doesn’t like corbyn.
She is an intelligent person, very practical and a steady hand. But for **** sake…..aaaaargh.

ferrals – Member
I also think that the other EU states will dictate what happens to us whoever we have in charge.

Yip, hence why the tories are utterly terrified of saying bugger all to Trump. Over the Paris deal alone they should tell him to do one , but nope, utterly belligerent politics is the way forward in the hope that being trumps poodle will somehow be respected.

A win for progressives all over… 😕

just5minutes – Member
oldnpastit – that list is a joke but a perfect example of taking the very worst possible outcome

by very worst possible outcomes, you mean….. No Deal….. 🙄

that aside the rest of your rebuttals are either just wishlist, wrong or missing the point entirely

@zippy no surprise and exactly what a number of us pointed out with Corbyn. The Lib Dems don’t stand for anything and their/Clegg’s behaviour in the Coalition put paid to me ever voting for them again – in my 54 years I have voted Lib Dem almost exclusively with one vote for Blair in 1997 (pointless as Labour could not possibly win in my constituency)

Guido Fawkes on Corbyn’s Terrorist sympathies

Corbyn Repeatedly Shared Platforms With Plane Hijacker

Leaving with WTO tariffs is in my view the best outcome for the UK, the EU seem incapable of agreeing a sensible deal as they have tens of thousands of bureaucrats whose gravy train depends on it’s preservation. There will be a deal but it will come after a period of WTO tariffs, it will be a deal like Canada’s with ZERO budget contributions and no freedom of movement equivalents.

@seaso the Paris climate deal is a bad deal for the US as it doesn’t include China or India (who are big users of coal generated electricity), it’s almost pointless IMO. There is a good reason Obama never signed it until he was in full lame duck mode.

zippykona – Member – Block User – Quote
One of the ladies in our shop has just done her postal vote.
She lives in a constituency that the libs could take back from the tories , she likes the lib policies and voted to remain.
So she voted Tory as she doesn’t like corbyn.
She is an intelligent person, very practical and a steady hand. But for **** sake…..aaaaargh.

Had a similar conversation with one of my wife’s friends a few months back on the topic of Brexit. Very intelligent and articulate, but then also fessed up to have been googling the implications of Brexit the day after the vote, and being rather remorseful as a result. FFS.

Guido Fawkes on Corbyn’s Terrorist sympathies

Guido Fawkes bashing a left-wing politician? Whatever next!

@seaso the Paris climate deal is a bad deal for the US as it doesn’t include China or India (who are big users of coal generated electricity), it’s almost pointless IMO

Jambafact #8712

yes it does China & India have to reduce their emissions by 2030, rather than 2020

but dont let pesky facts get in the way of your opinions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement

jambalaya – Member
@seaso the Paris climate deal is a bad deal for the US as it doesn’t include China or India (who are big users of coal generated electricity), it’s almost pointless IMO. There is a good reason Obama never signed it until he was in full lame duck mode.

Even if so(I can’t say I know the exact details there) but lead by example Jamba… A climate deal doesn’t need to be multilateral to start it.

But lets not kid ourselves that’s why trump et al don’t want to sign it, it’s cause they are fundamentally against it. (Hopefully the Americans will come back into the fold in 4 years time once the trump experiment has run it’s course.)

The public can see all this. In the space of 4 weeks she’s gone from being an invincible leader to a dithering wreck. It’s Gordon Brown all over again, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends with the same result.

I agree up to the last bit, as I still think she’ll win simply because Corbyn is totally unpalatable for many. People won’t be voting for May, but against Corbyn.

The fact that the Tories are in this mess is fairly stunning, since anyone half decent would have walked it against Corbyn.

Although maybe this failure could work out okay, as a Tory majority of say ~20 might not be that bad a result for the UK. Enough to get stuff done, but not enough to be total idiots.

Although maybe this failure could work out okay, as a Tory majority of say ~20 might not be that bad a result for the UK. Enough to get stuff done, but not enough to be total idiots.

would have been a complete waste of the ~ £100million it cost the taxpayer to put on this election though

and a serious blow to her credibility, the Tories will discard her with their usual efficiency

Yes, and a slim majority might make Theresa’s position untenable given the predicted landslide. The criticism she’ll get for triggering the election will be unbearable.
Edit: I see kimbers ninja edited to make the same point

The fact that the Tories are in this mess is fairly stunning, since anyone half decent would have walked it against Corbyn.

I seem to recall the same attitude to Dave wiping the floor with the totally discredited and bungling disaster area that was Gordon Brown.

Didn’t quite work out like that, did it?

But, yeah….. being in the present situation speaks volumes about May’s (obviously very limited) political capabilities, judgement, and her arrogance and complacency.

May’s attitude reminds me of a top premiership football team who are drawn against lower league opposition in the FA Cup, and think that all they have to do is turn up. And we all know what can happen there

Agree with those saying she’ll be gone, she might win but she won’t be the Prime Minister who completes the EU negotiations, just the one who wasted £100m, several months of time when she could of been working on a deal and made the UK government look incompetent

@ninfan. You can post a single newspaper article from 2015 if you want. But it doesn’t change the fact that consistent polling data across a number of sources shows the lead narrowing.

Also, Corbyn won the paxoff last night. Comprehensively.

The people who are put off by Corbyn (rather than policies) seem to have made their mind up a long time ago.
Hopefully there are still many who haven’t really formed an opinion yet and will start to listen to both over the next week.

kimbers – Member

would have been a complete waste of the ~ £100million it cost the taxpayer to put on this election though

and a serious blow to her credibility, the Tories will discard her with their usual efficiency

Yup. This hasn’t had much analysis since til recently it didn’t look like it was on the cards but the only reason for this election was to increase the majority, so standing still is a total failure, losing a single seat is a disaster- only a significant increase in seats is a victory..

They went in with a majority of 17- what’s the least good outcome that they can consider a victory? Not 17. 30?

I still think shell get the win and at least 50 seats extra so she will survive

Its obvious that the polls still underestimate the rightwingers, when it comes to voting

dragon – Member
Although maybe this failure could work out okay, as a Tory majority of say ~20 might not be that bad a result for the UK. Enough to get stuff done, but not enough to be total idiots.

That just gives backbench tories power over their government. I would say loonballs, but well, they’re in charge.

So in reflexion, I guess a tory majority of 20 or 120 makes not a lot of difference! 😆

I wonder how much the audience laughing at her, came as a surprise to her after spending the election trail at stage managed events full of the party faithful

kimbers – Member
the Tories will discard her with their usual efficiency

Do we get another election when this happens? 😆

Transcript from Jezza’s appearance on Woman’s Hour, re Labour childcare policy,

Whoever is doing their media training/interview prep should be fired immediately. After earlier number clusters, surely they know that even the mildest of interviewers will push that button.

^^^ Jezza obviously on the homebrew after celebrating last night debate

Yes, and a slim majority might make Theresa’s position untenable

That’s my view. She’ll have to go. She’ll probably want to go – brexit on a small majority is going to be a nightmare. Running a country on a small majority is a nightmare full stop.

There’s a tiny part of me that hopes she could stay on as PM and use it as an excuse not to Brexit. “Sorry people, but Brexit with a majority of 12 is not possible, I respect the public’s decision but it will have to wait for a future government with a workable majority.”

Success for May is something approaching a landslide. Success for Corbyn is over 200 seats. In fact the polls suggest he could go way beyond that and win. Combined with his enormous throbbing mandate he’s already done enough to justify staying on after the election to his party in the event of a loss. Whether that’s good or bad for Labour is a different argument!

(Note: My political predictions are always wrong.)

Its obvious that the polls still underestimate the rightwingers, when it comes to voting

The optimist in me might suggest that they underestimate the trend.

Not difficult to work out the current trend:

(but on balance I think you might be right)

Yeh just read women’s hour was full Diane Abbott

“Erm, it will cost, erm. It will obviously cost a lot”

Damn those journalists and their trick questions

Its obvious that the polls still underestimate the rightwingers, when it comes to voting

That has been factored into the polls this time so the polls you see are already corrected for that.

Yeh just read women’s hour was full Diane Abbott

Not so. She just made shit up, kept digging and got caught out. Pitiful.

Jez didn’t know his brief. On a major, expensive policy. When he/they must know that a grilling on numbers was imminent. He at least didn’t make stuff up and waffle, but he should have known his numbers. To not do so, helped by Abbott, makes a fool of him.

Yeh just read women’s hour was full Diane Abbott

I am really not sure what is wrong about checking the actual figures rather than just trying to memorise everything or, as per the maybot, repeating vacuous statements about “strong and reboot”.