Ok THM, other than remain as members of the EU, what else do you think stay in the EU might mean?

Lets all just bask in the warm glow of brexiters tryng to come up with plausible reasons to ignore their own impact asessments….

swivel-eyed starting to blame Davis for being incompetent, as well as  May now!

From the outset, it is important that the Government, Parliament and the public are clear about the distinction between ‘access to’ and ‘membership of’ the Single Market. Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— are EU Member States. The EEA states only enjoy partial membership, because the EEA agreement does not include a customs union. On the other hand, Turkey’s inclusion in a customs union with the EU does not entail the free movement of services, people or capital. Fundamentally, full membership of the Single Market is predicated upon acceptance of all Four Freedoms.

Norway has access to the SM but it is not in the EU

I agree with the HoL in the importance of the distinction here

of course it will be a bespoke deal , they all are .Canada deal is different to norway , and turkey , japan etc….

doesnt mean it will be a good deal for the UK ;

everyday Brexit is sinking a bit more .

we’ve always known what bespoke deal the tories want. unfettered access to the single market for goods services and finance with no contributions and no freedom of movement, cos ffs don’t they know who we are!

The phrase bespoke is being used to make it sound like we’re getting something special. Something that nobody else would ever get, because we’re so special.

It can be as bespoke as you like, but there are simply no terms under which the UK can leave the EU without damaging the overall economy.

I’d like a ‘bespoke deal’ with my local pub where I pay half the price for my beer as anyone else, my own private table, with a big squishy chaise Lounge, waitress service, including them nipping our to the nearest Greggs for me whenever I get a bit peckish?

i’ll let Then know. I’m sure they’ll have it all in place for me by the weekend. What, with me being the 6th largest economy on our street and a net contributor.

i might get David Davis to negotiate the whole thing for me, including an impact assessment on my liver

TP – how many countries have done what we are doing now?

The government says it will not publish a leaked report document predicting an economic hit from Brexit.

Brexit Minister Steve Baker said the document was at a “preliminary” stage and releasing it in full could damage the UK’s negotiations with the EU.

According to BuzzFeed,the report said growth would be lower in each of three different Brexit outcomes than if the UK had stayed in the EU.

Labour has called for it to be be published and debated in Parliament.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42867668

Imagine being so scared to publish  something you would rather admit that documents that should have been done and dusted very early on (given we were trying to start trade negotiations much earlier) are not ready rather than being so politically unpalatable you don’t want to publish it.

Bespoke is meaningless. We all know that.

Bespoke means bespoke.

I think the favourite one I have for bespoke deal was suggesting DD shitting on the table and running out is a bespoke deal. Unless your trying to use pedantry to avoid another issue I’m not quite sure why anyone would keep banging on about red white and blue bespoke, hand crafted, better than unicorn deals anyway.

Now back to writing to your MP about releasing the report and why such an important document has not been finished.

It’s meaningless

Stuck record time… operating in the Single Matket, without EU membership, means accepting the rules. Riddle me this THM… during the transition period, that the government has asked for (wisely) and the EI have made it clear we can have, we will operate in the Single Market (and Customs Union), but will no longer be EU members. So, if this is possible for 20 months, then, IF there was political will on all sides, it could be possible for a different time period. In the Single Market… not EU members.

The civil servants who worked on the documents  , are they the growns up negociating the deal ??

Why can’t I edit my own posts?

Excuse the spelling mistakes… I can’t read what I’m typing (teeny tiny text in composition text area), the preview doesn’t work, and edit takes me to a coffee cup.

This Kelvin

Forum Update

It’s broken page numbering like when it doesn’t go to the right last page

Ahh, okay… ta.

ahhhh that was actually meant to link to the post explaining the problem but that is on a phantom page too so that is buggered….

Kelvin

It does, correct

They (x2) have, correct

but you tripped up at the last sentance. You are breaking a simple identity. It’s meaningless. Your record won’t skip the crack

We are giving up membership of the EU. We had a vote (or two) on that. We will continue to have access to the SM under conditions yet to be finalised. It’s a one-off, don’t you know. But we won’t be in SM. That we know, barring any major volte face

once you get past the “in” word it becomes rather straightforward

We’ll be operating in the Single Market, but won’t be EU members. Simple.

Eureka  – thanks to our access of course

But don’t forget

<span style=”color: #444444; font-style: italic; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: #eeeeee;”>Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— are EU Member States. </span>

Small but important details

Yup, we won’t be members, we will be operating in the Single Market, during transition. So in the Single Market. Part of the Single Market. Not members.

Now, if their was the political will, on all sides, we could stay in the Single Market and the Customs union, but not be EU members. You’d be crazy to give up control like that, but it’s not impossible… it is just politically ruled out.

their=there

[ How embarrassing. ]

It is a draft document circulated for comment / review and leaked

It is not an impact assesment

It does not contain a scenario directly comparable to the one we are trying to negotiate

It does not take into account UK using mechanisms like universal tariff reduction in areas which we don’t produce goods (this is an obvious win from leavung the EU which imposes numerous high tariffs to protect member states in areas we don’t care about)

It uses the same models which predicted an immediate year long recession and associated significant increase in unemployment the moment we voted to leave

Even in the “worst case” WTO scenario it shows the UK growing substantially

Economists cannot predict accurately what is going to happen 6 or 12 months from now (as shown by Project Armageddon) so to suggest they can do so 5, 10 or 20 years from now is quite ridiculous.

Finally of course we are going to have a bespoke deal, we have ruled out all the off the shelf options the EU has proposed. As Davies says the model is Canada plus plus plus

Which damaging alternative to EU membership would you prefer us to move towards now Jamba? Is it still WTO, or do you now favour a Canada style FTA? With some plus, of course, but plus what… and by what means?

This is brilliant jambas is parroting exactly what Stephen baker said in parliament today.

<span style=”color: #444444; font-size: 12.8px;”>” it shows the UK growing substantially”</span>

“<span style=”color: #444444; font-size: 12.8px;”>Economists cannot predict accurately what is going to happen 6 or 12 months from now (as shown by Project Armageddon) so to suggest they can do so 5, 10 or 20 years from now is quite ridiculous.”</span>

So you trust economists predicting growth or you don’t?

🙂

Brexiter logic is a hilarious thing to behold

Seems like a fair amount of effort has gone into producing a document that was never intended to have any useful value then. How does that work?

THM the floor is your and its your specialist subject

The value of economic reports

Go 😉

To be fair on Davis’ DExEU economists it’s pretty hard to put a cash money value on unicorns

Jamba – you keep believing that now.

“Brexiter logic is a hilarious thing to behold”

If you ever needed to define the word oxymoron, ‘brexiteer logic’ would be difficult to beat. Hell, flat-earthers make more cogent arguments.

I thought this was quite a good article on the leaked impact reports:
<span style=”font-size: 12.8px;”>http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-assessment-leak-government-analysis-brexiteer-opinion-david-davis-eu-uk-theresa-may-a8185121.html

</span>Seemed pretty well reasoned and realistic (and from the brexit voting side!)

‘Economists cannot predict accurately what is going to happen 6 or 12 months from now (as shown by Project Armageddon) so to suggest they can do so 5, 10 or 20 years from now is quite ridiculous.’

durr! don’t you get it? these predictions are all wrong!

‘Finally of course we are going to have a bespoke deal, we have ruled out all the off the shelf options the EU has proposed.’

durr! don’t you get it? these predictions are all correct!

one can only imagine that if the report said something like ‘worst case = this, best case = that’, then it’s entirely logical that ‘brexiteer case = something much betterer than any of those, with a yacht and a pony to boot’

It’s fairly obvious that the government is struggling with reality and seems incapable of acknowledging that it’s current course of action will be damaging to the economy.

Meanwhile, people are becoming more entrenched in their divisions. It doesn’t bode well for the future, national unity will be a pipe dream for decades at this rate.

NI Customs Union membership or a hard border policed by banshees and unicorns.

And how are the Tories predictions, based on models from the civil service i assume, about austerity going? How many years ago was it the deficit would be cleared?

Indeed. I think that it’s fair to say that the current government is in the midst of a crisis of competence, as a result of an ideology first party doctrine. There’s a dearth of technocrats when we need them the most.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42884610

So on the Report Publication thing, how can MP’s make the right choices going forward if they are not provided with all the relevant information? Or is the plan really to keep people in the dark and then just out shouting surprise or something like that

or

Indeed. I think that it’s fair to say that the current government is in the midst of a crisis of competence, as a result of an ideology first party doctrine. There’s a dearth of technocrats when we need them the most.

Been a long time coming but Brexit, the NHS, the collapse of Carillion, the crisis at Capita. bail outs to Virgin Rail etc.

The dogma that has pervaded british poltics for the last 40+ years is falling apart. As for its replacement, chaos, civil war, division????? Now more than ever we need a one nation party willing to compromise and re think market fundamentalism. What is the plan for the left behind etc.

Just listening to that News Quiz someone posted a link to the other day. Oborne really is Jamby/THM, isn’t he :shocked emoticon:

We’ve had forty years of an economic system that ran out of steam a decade ago. In fairness, that’s not a uniquely British malaise, but common to most western economies as the quantitative easing required to ensure that our banking system remained afloat (and thus avoiding a liquidity crisis that would have put millions out of work), has created an asset bubble that has exacerbated the wealth gap. Meanwhile, tax policies common to New Labour and the Conservatives have ladled additional cost upon purchases at the expense of a progressive income tax. This has meant that it’s become relatively easy for the ultra-wealthy to shift their assets and liquidity offshore and away from the Exchequer. Against the backdrop of increasing productivity and falling real wages, it’s no surprise that resentment has been building.

Politics has become so partisan and tribal that it’s extremely hard to find common ground. Both main parties are locked in a fight for survival and a toxic media has contributed hugely to ignorance and misconception about why we’re in the current mess. I am concerned that we are only one step away from lurching into authoritarianism if we’re not careful.

Meanwhile, the fact that so many myths about the EU are being debunked doesn’t seem to make an difference to those who want to leave, despite the painful cost. Part of the problem is that most Leavers don’t think that the economic cost will affect them.