That last graph shows what I suggested earlier. It’s all very well saying he had more left in the tank, but even when he first accelerated with ~10 minutes to go, he only did one or maybe two laps faster than Wiggo’s average – peaking at under 55, when Wiggo had put in loads of >55kph laps. It was only in the sprint in the last minute he managed to go faster than that. I really can’t see Dowsett getting anywhere near on that form, however well he paces it.