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  • The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
  • reeksy
    Full Member

    Yes, something so simple that some people don’t seem to understand.

    I mean really?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-20/czech-singer-dies-after-deliberately-getting-covid/100768826

    So the news here is that we’re excited about the approval of Novovax as it potentially works for people that can’t have other vaccines, and the two newly approved antivirals … but don’t know when we’ll get access.

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    If i said to you, at the start of a Grand Tour, that i could give you something perfectly legal, non-invasive, and non-pharmaceutical, that would give you a 10% advantage over your competitors, but with a downside that it would mildly inconvenience you, would you take it?

    Would you?

    Probably the best I’ve heard it explained.

    The pandemic seems to have split the population into two groups – those who quietly get on with taking precautions hoping it protects them and others, even a little bit, and those who want the world to know that they won’t.

    Murray
    Full Member

    @reeksy, what a sad story, terrible for her son

    <p class=”_1HzXw”>Mr Rek blamed the death on a local anti-vax movement, saying its leaders had convinced his mother against vaccination and thus had “blood on their hands”.</p>
    <p class=”_1HzXw”>”I know exactly who influenced her … It makes me sad that she believed strangers more than her proper family,” Mr Rek said.</p>
    <p class=”_1HzXw”>”It wasn’t just total disinformation but also views on natural immunity and antibodies acquired through infection,” he added.</p>

    amodicumofgnar
    Full Member

    Interesting watching Sajid Javid trying to explain why March is the target for removing self isolation. Guess he can’t say it’s part of Operation Grand Flourish and the timing is all about the anniversary for Lockdown 1.

    trialtemptation
    Free Member

    They should do another eat out to help out, that was a real winner last time…

    Also seems like a brilliant idea to ease restrictions on visits to care homes at the same time, what could possibly go wrong.

    reeksy
    Full Member

    @Murray – yep, very sad. And unnecessary.

    Some interesting research suggesting vaccines are successful in reducing the (admittedly rare) multi-system inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) in children 12-18. I can’t see from a quick look that they’ve proved causation, in fact “The current findings contribute to the growing body of evidence that vaccination is likely effective in preventing severe COVID-19–related complications in children, including MIS-C.

    https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7102e1.htm?s_cid=mm7102e1_w

    adamjones
    Free Member

    TiRed, after listening to your podcast on here, were you not associated with some of this modelling and the likes of Neil Ferguson who I think you may have mentioned a couple of times? If so then you might want to see this retrospective summary of the modelling.

    Covid Forecasting and Modelling Westminster Hall Debate

    Justified? I would say so.

    theotherjonv
    Full Member

    It’s one side of the argument rather than the debate, but there are definitely questions to answer. I welcome that, I think any scientist needs to reflect and undergo peer review.

    The trouble of course is that there isn’t really any way of truly knowing – there’s no control experiment, even those that didn’t have such severe lockdowns still had populations that voluntarily reduced their exposures rather than carry on as normal. But yes, hindsight offers great opportunity.

    I don’t think his presentation of the facts is quite right – not in the sense of the other studies or reviews that he refers to but he overly politicises it blaming the left wing papers and the BBC and praising the Daily Mail, and the rhetoric in how he describes the modellers – he’s not debating, he’s made his mind up based on the studies he’s chosen to represent and as at the top this is only one side of it – so it grated a bit.

    I also wonder if we went over the top, I’ve seen the damage to people’s health and wellbeing, and indeed nearly two years ago I was querying if the long term effects will be bigger than the immediate ones. God knows, if fuel poverty already causes thousands of deaths per year the inflation of fuel prices etc is a substantial risk now for many others who have to choose heat or eat. But I’m not sure I agree that this was the worst possible course of action, or just the least shit, or somewhere between. That’s what we have to learn by proper independant review (that I’m not sure we’ll ever get)

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Welcome to the forum Adam. Any chance you can summarise the video? As short a precis as you like.

    kilo
    Full Member

    As short a precis as you like.

    “Hi my names Akbar, etc, got banned back – again”

    bruneep
    Full Member

    “Hi my names Akbar, etc, got banned back – again”

    👍

    adamjones
    Free Member

    Any chance you can summarise the video? As short a precis as you like.

    Damning!

    anagallis_arvensis
    Full Member

    Son tested positive yesterday, just filled in track and trace form online. It told me as a close contact I need to isolate for ten days!!! FFS who is organising this shite.
    At least the text I got got it right.

    Last time when Mrs anagallis had it, track n trace told me I didn’t need to isolate as I wasn’t a close contact despite living with her but that my son did…

    onewheelgood
    Full Member

    It told me as a close contact I need to isolate for ten days

    Didn’t it have an ‘unless exempt’ get out clause? Mine did, and I then had to follow a chain of links and read a lot of stuff to discover that I, like almost everyone else, was exempt.

    TiRed
    Full Member

    TiRed, after listening to your podcast on here, were you not associated with some of this modelling and the likes of Neil Ferguson who I think you may have mentioned a couple of times?

    Associated, yes – I’m a member of SPI-M after all. I have not personally produced any projections beyond four to six weeks (and that’s a long time for forward projection), and my models have been statistical rather than epidemiological. I’ve never made an “hysterical” projection. Such statistical models are not used for predicting policy changes as they are not “mechanism-based”. They are useful for near-term projection only.

    As it happens, the original naive models of SARS-CoV-2 regarding morbidity were in fact reasonable with their projection of about 250k deaths. Interventions (lockdowns and vaccination) reduced this total. NPIs were the only available intervention in March 2020. There is ample evidence of the effects of lockdown on transmission and it is easy to spot in our own data (no model required). One can debate their cost-effectiveness, but not their efficacy.

    For the record, I have had nothing to do with Imperial College, Foot and Mouth, or CJD – I left epidemiology in 2000 for Clinical Pharmacology. I do however know the group members.

    Drac
    Full Member

    Son tested positive yesterday, just filled in track and trace form online. It told me as a close contact I need to isolate for ten days!!! FFS who is organising this shite.
    At least the text I got got it right.

    Isn’t close contact still 10 days unless you meet the rules for not needing to?

    dantsw13
    Free Member

    As I’ve said before, I’m part of the CovBoost trial, that investigated and proved the booster programme.
    We were due to be reporting in Feb for end of trial blood work. That’s just been cancelled pending a trial of a 4th jab, blind selection between either a 4th Pfizer and a new Moderna “omicron specific” mRNA vaccine.

    TiRed
    Full Member

    It is time for new antigens. The current vaccines have lost 40-fold potency to neutralise omicron compared to wild type. That’s about ten months of duration of protection. A new vaccine will restore longevity of protection for symptomatic infection.

    Of course the NEXT variant, like influenza, remains unknown, so it’s a bit of a gamble as to whether the number of omicron mutations are here to stay. But given other escape mutants, some of them are likely permanent (hello E484 and 417).

    The approval pathways for a new vaccine is not certain. Perhaps a compatible efficacy study against an original strain that works less well. That’s an inefficient route.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    kelvin
    Full Member
    Welcome to the forum Adam. Any chance you can summarise the video? As short a precis as you like.

    Slightly angry man blaming scientists and the left wing media for lockdown.

    He gives a discount code near end if anyone wants to take out a sub with the Daily Mail.

    DrP
    Full Member

    Aaaand….
    DrP now has the ‘rona 🙄😷🤒🤕🤧

    Had my daughter, (and son, as the ex weight gave either child) who tested positive from Monday, at home with me all week..
    She tried her best to stay in her room, but she’s only 7 so would come wake me up still etc…
    Woke at 3 am fever, cough and sure throat…
    LFT positive…
    Yay 🙄

    DrP

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    @DrP

    Well you stay safe and keep tucked under that duvet.

    Mugboo
    Full Member

    Sorry, I know this will have been covered previously but as lots more of us have recently had a positive test for the first time, what difference does this make to longer term immunity, if any? Does infection mean ‘long’ term protection or does it wain just as fast as my jabs/booster?

    The logical part of my brain knows that we aren’t out of the woods yet but my chimp is feeling pretty bulletproof…

    MoreCashThanDash
    Full Member

    Slightly angry man blaming scientists and the left wing media for lockdown.

    Jumped on by one of our angry men, calmer response from another.

    Hope you’re OK DrP.

    Mate tested positive yesterday, we had an hour in the pub together Wednesday night. I’m still testing negative so far, hopefully kept far enough away from him. Restricting vulnerable contacts in the meantime….

    Drac
    Full Member

    Does infection mean ‘long’ term protection or does it wain just as fast as my jabs/booster?

    It’s wains faster than the vaccine.

    dantsw13
    Free Member

    But a spread of vaccination, Delta & Omicron infection gives you a very wide spread of antibodies & T Cells.

    However, as that Czech singer ^^^^^ showed, aiming for infection isn’t a smart play.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    My other half is ill and has positive LFTs again. Primary school teacher, so catching it is pretty much unavoidable in this part of the country right now.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Interesting stuff on the trials dantsw13 & TiRed, thanks.

    RichBowman
    Full Member

    Ping. +ve PCR here (but a week of -ve LFTs) – caught from my primary school girls who have had +ve LFTs but completely asymptomatic for the past week. They’re rocking about 50% positives in the oldest’s (Year 2) class. (SW London, FWIW)

    paton
    Free Member

    anagallis_arvensis
    Full Member

    Didn’t it have an ‘unless exempt’ get out

    I’ll be honest I didn’t look that closely as they have a history of telling me the wrong thing so I just make an effort to know the rules and apply them, I expect many people do not!

    kelvin
    Full Member

    Paton, comorbidities are very much a thing, yes. And it’s not “something people don’t tell you”, the media have covered it well at different points of the pandemic, and it’s been discussed in this forum often. The whole “only those with pre-existing condition are at serious risk of death” thing has always been the case… the fact we can get to 150,000+ deaths, even with the measures we’ve taken and the vaccines and treatments we have, should be a reminder of just how many people are in the “pre-existing condition” bracket. My mum is, my other half is, one of my children is… lots of people we all know are. Our responses to the pandemic have never been driven by the idea that everyone is at risk of dying from it, we’ve always known that most of us are incredibly unlikely to have met that end, even in the earliest days of the pandemic. This has always been, for most of us, about protecting those who are at risk, not ourselves.

    Drac
    Full Member

    @Paton

    If you’re going to post a video at least give your option on them too, otherwise it’s just clickbait.

    Anyway, from day one of the pandemic it’s been made clear that the vulnerable, elderly, chronic cardiac problems, COPD, transplant patient and other conditions are much more at risk from Covid 19. As they are from many viruses. It’s not being hidden by the media, it’s been there since day one. This report has also been on the news about how the number of those who are vulnerable far outweigh the deaths of those without out a precondition. Again it’s not a shock, revelation or manipulation of figures. The fact is if they hadn’t caught covid it’s highly likely they’d still be alive. It’s exactly the risk such people are at risk of from the likes of the flu.

    I’ll be honest I didn’t look that closely as they have a history of telling me the wrong thing so I just make an effort to know the rules and apply them

    So are you isolating for 10 days then?

    haggis1978
    Full Member

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19alonewithnounderlininghealthissuesnovemeber2019todecember2021

    Heres the link to the information discussed in the video above. 17371 people. Vast majority of those are over 65 and if you Google the average age of people who died as a whole during the pandemic, whilst still very tragic, they were in their 80’s.

    Drac
    Full Member

    Pre-existed conditions is the key, I’m not going to even go anyways near “Oh they were 80”.

    I was diagnosed with hypertension in November, I also have a liver and kidney condition none of which actually effect my daily life and I’m still reasonably fit despite not exercising much of late. If I was to catch and die with covid it would go down as having a pre-existing condition. The 17371 is for those without a diagnosed pre-existing condition.

    I mean even a fractured femur goes down as pre-existing condition.

    haggis1978
    Full Member

    Yes exactly. The 17371 is people who died only from coronavirus. The difference between dying “with” and “of” coronavirus is what is going to be greatly disputed over the coming months and years. A great many deaths will occur because of the control measures put in to place to stem this pandemic. By that I mean those who die through famine because crops will have failed, those who lost their jobs and homes, those who couldn’t get the medical treatment they required because money was spent elsewhere. Like the £42 million spent on converting the SECC to a Covid hospital here in Glasgow and it never saw even one patient.

    Drac
    Full Member

    You’re clearly missing what it actually means. I’ve even tried to explain it to you with an example of me, I’ve hypertension it will be recorded as a pre-existing condition. If I die of covid I go into the the pre-existing condition figures.

    Del
    Full Member

    The difference between dying “with” and “of” coronavirus is what is going to be greatly disputed over the coming months and years

    Only by those who haven’t really been paying attention. There are basically three ways of doing the count. Their results are not millions of miles apart. ‘Excess deaths’ is probably the most pertinent in my opinion. Lots of people were still being diagnosed with cancer and having heart attacks and they were being treated. If we hadn’t locked down when we did a lot of those who were being urgently treated wouldn’t have got that care as the hospitals would have been rammed. Lots more would have died.

    It’s been a shit show – no denying that, but if Johnson had actually listened to scientists a bit more a bit sooner he would have locked down earlier, we could have come out earlier, a lot less people would have died, and it would have cost us less to boot.

    scotroutes
    Full Member

    Like the £42 million spent on converting the SECC to a Covid hospital here in Glasgow and it never saw even one COVID patient.

    FTFY. It was used to take the load off other facilities.

    trialtemptation
    Free Member

    Round it round it goes and every single time the anti-lockdownists arguments come down to “I was alright so lockdowns were dumb”

    trail_rat
    Free Member

    Any fool can analyse events after and pick holes in.

    None of them were able to come up with a Quotient educated convincing plan when it mattered.

    By all means note down the learnings and we can take them to the next them next time but their Youtube rants do nothing but stir up division.

    I will bet my bottom dollar had the death toll been ten times what it is the same commentators would be saying enough wasn’t done.

    Welcome As Dave Gorman called it – the bottom of the internet.

    Oh and @drac that’s how Paton works I’m convinced he is a YouTube link bot – I certainly just scroll past his incessant linking now.

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