Kicks the can for a week or two whilst he can dream up some utter bollocks to gaslight the population with.

Right on cue.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/sep/14/disgusting-pms-joke-over-uk-becoming-saudi-arabia-of-penal-policy-condemned

I’d really like some sort of explantion for this.

One is that when a population is vaccinated, the onset of immunity effects limiting spread become easier to achieve. Recall that cases are driven by symptomatic testing. Only the ONS survey provides the truth. Watch it carefully for trends.

I find trying to ascribe causality to something that has impressive lag-time distributions built in was a challenge without vaccines (obvious lockdown effects notwithstanding). Football being a case in point. Easier to spot with hindsight,little effect on admissions and no effect on deaths.

It is precisely because vaccination only reduces rather than stops people catching and transmitting the virus that we need such a high proportion of the population to be vaccinated.

Has anyone come up with an estimate of the vaccine coverage we would currently need to seriously squash Delta spread? England is at 80% of over 16s double jabbed, and still turning in 30,000+ positives a day, without even taking into account naturally-acquired immunity on top of this. This suggests to me that neither vaccine does much more than protect from the most serious consequences of Delta.

As you say, there is plenty of unvaccinated population, particularly among younger people:

In addition to that, in our cities the vaccination rate is pretty awful – London is still below 70%.

It feels to me that, as usual, difficult options that might involve unpopular decisions and coercion (vaccine passports etc) are being shunned in favour of descending on a cohort which barely benefits directly, and using a single dose which will deliver questionable benefits to the general population in terms of transmission.

There are unknowns which could make 12-15 vaccination worthwhile IMV – a significant reduction in cases of long covid would justify it.

Teens need vaccinating to reduce poor health outcomes for them, and to allow vulnerable children to attend school, and to get enough of the population vaccinated to reduce spread (I agree that other measures could be used instead or as well, but for whatever political reason, “we’ve” decided vaccination is the only tool we’re using in earnest now… god knows why). I don’t understand the single (and half dose) approach at all, I must be honest.

Anyway…

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/entire-covid-shielding-programme-quietly-24998750

The entire Covid shielding programme has been “closed” for good in an announcement slipped out at night during a Cabinet reshuffle.

Clinically extremely vulnerable people will “not be advised to shield again” in future despite fears of a huge winter wave, said the statement uploaded to the government website after 7pm on Wednesday.

^^It’s a worrying time of you are one of those shielding or looking after someone that is.

The government have basically gone “ring of steel” with them.

In other words, thrown to the lions.

Hard to read it any other way. Sorry.

It seems the ONS have redefined their description of Long Covid as having ongoing classic Covid19 symptoms, rather than having long term illness cause by having Covid19. Cue headlines about there not being so many people suffering from Long Covid as previously thought. So, long term illness, caused by Covid19, but with symptoms that aren’t the classic symptoms that arrive with the initial infection/illness is now not Long Covid, for the sake of official figures (I expect and hope treatment within the NHS ignores this slight of hand and tries to offer the support needed to as many people as possible who need it, whatever their long term symptoms).

I can’t imagine independent researchers will be using the ONS definitions if they are that restrictive. It will still take a while to accurately gauge the extent of long covid.

Good long piece on the fors and againsts of child vaccination in this week’s Private Eye.

I don’t understand the single (and half dose) approach at all, I must be honest.

The half dose thing is purely about limiting the risk of cardiac problems (mainly in boys) as a result of the vaccine, as some research has suggested the second dose of pfizer is associated with a higher risk. There is obviously not a great deal of research into the efficacy of the single dose in this age group, so presumably the gamble is that the younglings will possibly have a more powerful response to a single dose than older adults by way of compensation to impede onwards transmission.

I understand the aim of vaccinating 12-15s. Whether it can deliver these benefits in real life is yet to be proven.

“ring of steel”

Did anyone watch “Help”?

It seems the ONS have redefined their description of Long Covid as having ongoing classic Covid19 symptoms, rather than having long term illness cause by having Covid19. Cue headlines about there not being so many people suffering from Long Covid as previously thought. So, long term illness, caused by Covid19, but with symptoms that aren’t the classic symptoms that arrive with the initial infection/illness is now not Long Covid, for the sake of official figures (I expect and hope treatment within the NHS ignores this slight of hand and tries to offer the support needed to as many people as possible who need it, whatever their long term symptoms).

This shouldn’t be a surprise as post viral fatigue syndrome was a recognised condition before covid-19 existed. I’m very cynical but it’s amazing how many people seem to have long covid who contracted “covid” early last year (but of course never tested positive). Imo some people want to be special and it’s a great reason to blame for their life being crap. Just to be clear long covid definitely exists but some people claiming to be suffering from it probably aren’t.

Imo some people want to be special and it’s a great reason to blame for their life being crap.

I really hope you’re not a GP.

kelvin

“ring of steel”

Did anyone watch “Help”?

I and everyone else probably should watch it but I just couldn’t bring myself to do so.

It wouldn’t have left me in a good frame of mind.

It costs a great deal more to treat a patient in an ICU as well as the cost of the burial or cremation and the ongoing costs for the orphaned children, now numbering more than 1 million in the United States alone. It is one thing is a single smoker choses to get lung and other cancers but quite another to expose family members or neighbors as is the case with the stupid heartless people who think not getting vaccinated and not wearing a mask is an act of courage.

Countries like New Zealand and Taiwan and South Korea and Vietnam have been able to minimize deaths with their proactive governments and responsible citizens. If the USA had done the same the death toll would be roughly 10,000 people instead of more than 600,000. We would not have had the impact on the financial health of working men and women and their families and not had so many Americans relying on food banks and about to find themselves living in tents.

It is one thing is a single smoker choses to get lung and other cancers but quite another to expose family members or neighbors as is the case with the stupid heartless people who think not getting vaccinated and not wearing a mask is an act of courage.

You’ve never heard of passive smoking or witness a smoke filled room of people, or kids in a car with smoking parents?

edit: sorry, an overreaction on my part, i agree with your overall sentiment re vaccines.

I and everyone else probably should watch it but I just couldn’t bring myself to do so.

You should. Pick your time though. Well worth watching, as you’d expect based on that cast and crew.

Aye, recorded it Kelvin as I had stuff on, I’ll watch it at the weekend.

If anyone thinks that having Post viral fatigue syndrome is attention grabbing, then I hope they never get it themselves. Its a life debilitating illness. Life is no longer as it was before and more often than not ends in depression, maybe debt and despair. Not something to make light of.

it’s a death cult!

“He was an imperfect man but he loved his family and his little girls more than anything,” his wife wrote on the GoFundMe page.

The problem with rare events is that in large numbers of people, those events still happen. I imagine that the Republican states have a greater risk of such event since vaccination seems politicised in the US. The US are using antibodies for treatment of symptoms and just ordered another 1.4mn doses from Regeneron. Also now available in the UK for those at risk of progression.

Oral antivirals – like tamiflu may be available for emergency approval later this year or early next.

If you want to see some of the level of insanity look up r/hermancainaward on reddit.
It is mind boggling and horrendous that loads of poor kids are being orphaned because of stupidity

grahamt1980
Free Member

If you want to see some of the level of insanity look up r/hermancainaward on reddit.

As a wise man once said,

https://i.imgur.com/ZJJdkU1.jpeg

Goodwood revival yesterday
Not a face mask in sight
Zero social distancing
Lots of oldies sitting in the sun getting drunk
Wanted to see more but the left side of my brain said move away from the crowds, find some space, try and lower contact numbers.
Its a great event, but many people there are clearly there to be seen there and are not in the least bit interested in 2 dozen mini Coopers going flat out a few meters away

Sitting outside in the sun I would think the chances of catching anything are not very great, it’s not a football match with lots of people in close proximity shouting and singing, if you are has worried about being near people has you sound why did you go in the first place? Not sure what you expected to find at an event like Goodwood

Dropped one of my kids off at uni on Friday. Dozens of unmasked parents/children cramming themselves into lifts. I was probably one of only a couple who bothered with masks.

Was at a postponed town carnival yesterday and it was as if Covid had never happened, lovely day for it, loads of people out enjoying themselves, hardly any masks, little attempt at social distancing. With it being outside, the Covid risk didn’t really bother me any more than people getting too close bothered me in the Before Times

Out for a ride today to a cafe I’ve (selflessly!) supported through lockdown – was busy as there was a football match over the road, and it was only me and the customer facing staff wearing masks. When their staff feel it’s safe to take masks off and remove screens, then I will too. Until then, I’m happy to make a small effort and deal with The Looks.

I went to Ashton Gate for the Bears Sarries match on Fri night. From my normal seat in the south stand I saw just a couple of masks. On the way in/out before/after hardly anyone was wearing one. I was very surprised by the lack of them to be honest with just over 19k in attendance.

It seems that learning to live with the virus actually means getting comfortable with dying by the virus. And if you aren’t comfortable with that, then you don’t have much choice but to withdraw from society.

It seems that learning to live with the virus actually means getting comfortable with dying by the virus

Although many of us don’t agree with the shred immunity strategy, If your double jabbed and relatively healthy your chances of dying are minimal at worst. But yes, if you want to reduce that chance further for you and others don’t go to to crowded exposed places.

What about everyone else?

There is a short monologue towards the end of “Help” that nails it for me. Watch it.

My wife is a TA in a primary school. When she went back to work she was one of two people wearing a mask.

Second week of term and two classes have +Covid cases, 7 in one class, 5 in another. All kids. Only the kids with a positive test are required to isolate, every other child expected in school including staff who are double jabbed.

One teacher hasn’t had her second jab yet, it’s been delayed due to catching Covid before the summer holidays. She’s playing the waiting game about having her second jab due to expectations that she’d be expected to work in a class with probable positive cases. Although she probably is anyway.

Although many of us don’t agree with the shred immunity strategy, If your double jabbed and relatively healthy your chances of dying are minimal at worst. But yes, if you want to reduce that chance further for you and others don’t go to to crowded exposed places.

Sadly this is where we are. I’m learning to dial down the anxiety and be a bit more adventurous. But I’m still giving crowded pubs a miss, though that’s been my preferred approach for 20 years anyway.

Having been given a covid immunity booster (double pfizered previously) thanks to infection via my sons school i guess my antibody levels will be nice and high.
That being said it hasn’t been a fun week so far, so my intention is to keep using masks and screw anyone that objects, the bonus is that my masks also mean i get nasty smells filtered too (not that i can smell anything at the moment anyway).
I know we will all get it frequently over time but i can’t say i am going to look forward to it and will avoid as much as i possibly can

There’s a very good account of the BioNTech-Pfizer mRNA  development on Audible 

TLDR: It’s a combination of hard work, forward planning and luck that we have vaccines as effective as they are.

On a different note, I went to see Brian Cox and Robin Ince in a theatre last night. Despite a presumably science based audience mask wearing was patch and social distancing pretty much impossible getting in and out of the theatre. Nothing I could do, so I just enjoyed the show. Well worth seeing – it’ll be a stadium tour in 2022.

A nice paper in the BMJ on risk of covid progression for those who are vaccinated. With over 5 million subjects double vaccinated and a further 2 million with a single dose in the dataset, needless to say sensitivity to detect signals is pretty good. The ABSOLUTE risk was very small:

Of 6,952,440 vaccinated patients in the derivation cohort, 5,150,310 (74.1%) had two vaccine doses. Of 2031 covid-19 deaths and 1929 covid-19 hospital admissions, 81 deaths (4.0%) and 71 admissions (3.7%) occurred 14 days or more after the second vaccine dose

What’s missing of course is the seropositivity – so most of the detected risk factors are really surrogates for not seroconverting after vaccination. Nothing new here; organ transplantation, cancer and HIV are all immunosuppressive predictors. Still, the algorithm can describe 3/4 of the variability seen.

https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2244

Friend told me this weekend that her best mate was at a party the other day with someone who later tested positive. She (the friend) decided to take a pcr but as the results hadn’t come back by the weekend she took a lat flow test, got a negative, before then hosting a dinner party.

No wonder we are in the mess we are..

but if double jabbed those are the rules. While I agree I’d not do that, you can’t blame people for doing what they are told.

but if double jabbed those are the rules. While I agree I’d not do that, you can’t blame people for doing what they are told.

I thought you needed to wait for your result before ending isolation?

Not if you are double jabbed – or so my wife was told by the tester when she did a PCR test a while back – she isolated anyway because results were coming back same day at that time so it seemed stupid not to.
The tester may have got it wrong though

From the Gov website – what to do if in contact with someone with Covid, but not specifically required to self isolate

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance/stay-at-home-guidance-for-households-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection#exempt

Even if you are vaccinated, you can still be infected with COVID-19 and pass it on to others. If you are identified as a contact of someone with COVID-19 but you are not required to self-isolate, you can help protect others by following the guidance on how to stay safe and help prevent the spread. As well as getting a PCR test, you may also consider:

• limiting close contact with other people outside your household, especially in enclosed spaces
• wearing a face covering in enclosed spaces and where you are unable to maintain social distancing
• limiting contact with anyone who is clinically extremely vulnerable
• taking part in twice weekly LFD testing

Key words….you may also consider.

One person’s consideration is another’s infringement of civil liberties.

Fair enough if she isn’t breaking any rules.

Not sure the point of getting a pcr test if it can take 5 days to come back and in meantime you can go about your daily business however.