You and me both &joepud – but my understanding is you don’t know till you turn up.

The low platelet thing – does that happen without the clotting? Do you have to then have to take medicine for the low platelets and how long does that take to recover from?

This is basically where I am. 35 wfh 100% why does a handful of years make a difference to if i get a clot and die or not

Absolutely…

A 32 year old me would have not been slightly worried about risk of covid, however I’d have felt I was morally obliged to get the vaccine from a society perspective.

If it was the only option Id probably have felt I should have still got it, but there is no way id have taken it if there was other options available. If we expect healthy people to get vaccinated out of a moral obligation to the more vulnerable in society we also have a moral option to give them the safest possible option if available.

Nowadays at 45 I’ll take whatever I’m given as I’d be getting vaccinated as much for my benefit as for society’s. But if i was early 30s with no health issues…I’d probably refuse the az vaccine and tell them if they want me vaccinated provide something else

weird that the thread seems to let me post, but not read…..

You can only read if you access the first page of the thread first, then navigate to last page. If you try to access the last page from the forum menu it doesn’t show previous posts

I’m teetering, at 38 I’m unsure whether I’d ask for a vaccine other than Az or just accept it.

Unfortunately I suspect a lot of people are in the same bag following all of this and could impact the roll out for something that’s so ridiculously small in risk.

I guess ultimately if there was no alternate at the time I’d just shrug my shoulders and get on with it.

Brexit thread giving me the same problem

TheotherJonV: thanks

And yeah “massive backtracking”!? No – just scientific method… 🙄

No, I meant backtracking by the people on here who have been so aggressive in accusing any doubters of being selfish conspiracy theorists but are now thinking maybe they or their family would rather not have the AZ vaccine themselves now that it might not be as safe as the science showed.

And this isn’t an “I told you so” so much as a big “**** you” to those who had a go on this and other threads, right through from “show us the evidence for your common sense or shut up” to “shut up troll” and “your wife is a dumb ****”.

Brexit thread giving me the same problem

I’ve reported a couple of others too. Basically, the page numbering is wrong.

Ed, I think plenty of people gave the weapons inspectors credit, such is why the anti war protest at the time of Tony’s ‘adventure’ was iirc the largest of all time. Tbh having traveled and worked in much of Europe over the last 20 years I’m happy to accept information from foreign sources but it’s a shame you so infrequently post links. In God we trust. Everyone else brings data. 😉

Just out of interest, and forgive me asking a personal question, but did Madame make use of oral contraceptive earlier on in life?

Chrispo, see my comment above about data. If you’ve got it, show it.

I think the media have again let themselves and us down on this. They’ve jumped on the European’s concerns gladly almost but have failed to represent the numbers adequately and compared these to the risks we have routinely taken for years. This is the science in action. Learn from the data and adjust your course of action where you’re able to and appropriate.

Anyone younger than 50 but older than 30 shouldn’t over egg it IMO. This isn’t just about the here and now. This jab is building your immunity for next year and the year after etc.

What the numbers really illustrate is how exceedingly low the risk of dying from covid is if you are under 30 so when balancing too exceedingly unlikely events, taking the vaccine comes off slightly worse. This balance changes markedly as you get older.

Another useful perspective is that taking the contraceptive pill has a far higher blood clotting risk than the AZ vaccine, albeit not a risk faced by many on here.

I’m teetering, at 38 I’m unsure whether I’d ask for a vaccine other than Az or just accept it.

Sky news have a really good comparison scenarios on their website. Basically your about 1000 time more likely to get a blot clot if you get on a plane. Media reporting has just blown this so far out of proportion that under the circumstances it’s scary the way it’ll put people off. A chance of a blot clot is less than 1 in 200,000 taking AZ if you’re in your 40’s, 1 in 2000 if your on the pill, 1 in 1000 being on a plane

The holiday you’re waiting for has a lot more chance of killing you via a blood clot than the AZ vaccine does but will increase your chance of dying from c19 exponentially.

What the numbers really illustrate is how exceedingly low the risk of dying from covid is if you are under 30 so when balancing too exceedingly unlikely events, taking the vaccine comes off slightly worse.

That’s true. But the threat is not limited to your death; it’s someone else’s, or your long term illness, or someone else’s long term illness…….and the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of the vaccine still. Just not as much as they were, or quite so favourable compared to other vaccines.

@crispo

Yes, your scepticism seems to have had justification, albeit it’s nowhere near as cut and dried as now calling AZ as unsafe. I still disagree that it’s the common sense position to reject the AZ, the evidence is still overwhelmingly in favour of the vaccine, just not as much as it was. And as Del says, you got the right answer but still haven’t really shown your working out (or explained why your ex-wife should be such a trusted source), so I’m still not 100% sure it wasn’t ‘a guess’, and there’s still a bit of me that wonders if you weren’t taking that position just for the argument.

But yes – by whatever means you got to the conclusion, you were right, the AZ was not as safe as was initially thought.

That’s true. But the threat is not limited to your death; it’s someone else’s, or your long term illness, or someone else’s long term illness

The good for society doesn’t come into an individual medical decision.

That’s Dr J’s question answered.

Edit: in response to jonv:

I’d take issue with that. 24 million in the UK have had az and there have been 79 serious adverse effects. Az was/is as safe for the majority of the target audience as we thought. We were right to roll it out at speed. We act on new information though. We’re fortunate enough to have options and we’re exercising them though in many respects we’re being over cautious but we have alternatives we can target at different age groups – brilliant! What was the alternative? A year ago we didn’t even know if we’d have one vaccine that would be even 50% effective. Here we are about 4 months after various vaccine have received approval and over half the population have received a very good level of protection already – it’s a triumph!

Another useful perspective is that taking the contraceptive pill has a far higher blood clotting risk than the AZ vaccine, albeit not a risk faced by many on here.

in 2000 if your on the pill

3000000 women on the pill in UK, so 15000 blood clots a year or lifetime risk?

BETA: A private place for our full members to chat.

Erm.. anyone else getting this on the main forum page…?

Yes I just had that too.

Is that lifetime risk or every time someone takes the pill?

I didn’t put a number on it, but the Sky number quoted is per annum.

Add me in for the AZ complication lottery, had scan on Monday along with raft of blood tests and inflammatory marker tests. Seems like my headaches/weird right eye twitches/hellish joint pain and being laid up in bed for a week with soul destroying lethargy were more than likely caused by the AZ vaccine playing havoc with my immune system, it’s kinda complicated as I also have spms which can cause similar issues but the scan showed showed irregularities close to a bit of my brain that’s been previously rendered “mush” by ms lesions – it looked like the usual black blob of dead brain matter that I’ve seen before in scans but the consultant pointed out a new area of concern…bugger. The inflammatory markers in my blood are all raised quite significantly especially cpr and whilst my platelet count is down at under 200,000 it’s not of great concern at moment, I’ll get weekly blood tests to make sure it is on the rise.
Oh well……….. got a bollocking for not raising my health issues immediately after receiving the vaccine back in mid February (I’m 48 btw) so that’s me suitably chastised as it was actually quite serious, we talked of iv steroids to quell my immune system back down but I’ve had enough of them previously and decided that as I’m slowly getting over it then weekly check ups will do for the time being.

At least I no longer need a 2nd vaccine shot as my over eager immune system has been churning out COVID antibodies like they’re going out of fashion, I’ve got loads to spare (apparently) so I’ll list bundles of them of the classifieds (joke btw…..they’re mine……all mine my precious.)

well done for keeping the humour going. sounds like a shitter mate. trite as it sounds i hope you’re on the mend as far as you can be soon.

balancing too exceedingly unlikely events, taking the vaccine comes off slightly worse.

The stats are still very much in favour for the az vaccine tbf. 1 in a million odds of dying with a clot apparently. 30 year olds may have minimal risk of covid but I’d be staggered if it’s 1 in a million.

As for chrispo blethering on about how he was right all along etc etc. No you weren’t.. the odds are miniscule, in Fact I had assumed from the outset they’d be far higher than they are. Media are blowing this massively out of proportion.

I would happily have the az vaccine. My issue is I think it’s absolutely wrong that they have said only certain age groups will get an option. Should be same rules for everyone.

@del

we’re not in disagreement – I still think the AZ is very safe, even with the new numbers; it’s marginally not as very safe as previously thought. And as there are alternatives, then we should use them where appropriate / to most effect to make it even safer.

It has been a fantastic science response, I’m not criticising that at all. Nor am I criticising the new info, amend the approach response. That’s how progress really gets made, not by blindly sticking to a plan just because it’s the plan.

agreed jon

I’d be staggered if it’s 1 in a million.

It has been when known that the risk is tiny, but Van Tam’s slide showed a slightly higher risk for the vaccine so be staggered.

Should be same rules for everyone.

No it shouldn’t because the risk profile is completely different – risks of clots goes down as you get older, risk of covid death goes up.

As DrJ posed earlier, if risk in children is even higher for clots, more so than their risk from serious covid, then what point do regulators decide wider benefit to society of them being vaccinated justifies its use?

Not a decision id want to take, but then I have young kids, so ill worry

And sou ds tough for you somafunk, hope you’re feeling better soon

Ah I’m fine, really I am. On the mend and quite chirpy as I can now function pretty much without help 80% of the time which is a vast improvement over 6 weeks previous when I was an immobile lump of useless fat & gristle, I can still wipe my own arse.

Van Tam’s slide showed a slightly higher risk for the vaccine so be staggered.

Van Tam’s slide was ICU admittance rather than death – both around one in 100,000

As DrJ posed earlier, if risk in children is even higher for clots, more so than their risk from serious covid, then what point do regulators decide wider benefit to society of them being vaccinated justifies its use?

They have decided wrt az. Trials will continue. It’s not just about benefits to society either, but children don’t remain children, they’ll need protection in later life too.

And protection gained via vaccine rather than exposure is protection gained without an opportunity for a new variant to start its journey. I really hope we will be vaccinating teens later this year. It doubt it’ll be AZ though. We’re entering a very dangerous part of this pandemic now, with high enough vaccination levels in the UK to foster an attitude of “it’s over”, but with a large proportion of the population mixing in close contact, unvaccinated, and offering up hundreds of thousands of chances for a new vaccine resistant variant to develop and spread before we are prepared for it. Or a variant that has a new unwanted effect on the unvaccinated young.

Isn’t comparing the clotting risk a bit like comparing apples and oranges? I know quite a few people who have had DVT and have been fixed pretty easily; not sure if this is spin or not but the media makes out this type of clot associated with the az vaccine is more dangerous?

I also worry that with a 4-14 day lag between getting the vaccine and getting complications, as there is an age related component the numbers of those affected might ramp up quickly given the speed of roll-out and strategy of starting with the oldest. Maybe it’s a happy co-incidence that rate if first vaccine is going to slow as they give second jabs, so more time can be spent looking at the issue.

Some really great news out this morning. UCL study shows that through a combination of vaccination acquired immunity and prior virus exposure immunity, the UK has now reached, or will have by this Monday, the 74% threshold required for Herd Immunity.

Woohoo, from Monday we can get back to normality!

I think the media have again let themselves and us down on this. They’ve jumped on the European’s concerns gladly almost but have failed to represent the numbers adequately and compared these to the risks we have routinely taken for years.

This is my big bug bear about this. BBC news last night was all about the risk of clots in the headlines, but in the actual head to head with the health correspondent he pointed out that someone aged 20-30 was much more likely to die in a car accident, but no one was suggesting they stop driving. I got the impression their “expert” was getting fed up of editorial headline grabbing.

Woohoo, from Monday we can get back to normality!

And

not as very safe as previously thought

There’s your media headlines, leading to the bleedin obvious after people’s behaviour determines it’s ok to mix socially and and refusal of the AZ.

It’s downright dangerous in the circumstances and as much as I wouldnt propose state controlled media it needs to stop for the benefit of all. it’s currently more dangerous not to wear flight socks than have the AZ, but that kind of comparison is not being made clear.

Some really great news out this morning. UCL study shows that through a combination of vaccination acquired immunity and prior virus exposure immunity, the UK has now reached, or will have by this Monday, the 74% threshold required for Herd Immunity.

Not seen the report but sounds dubious given vaccines aren’t 100% effective in stopping transmission (I recall a figure of 60% but not sure). I though based on this it had been deemed herd immunity was a pipe dream even with 100% vaccine uptake.

Also any mathematical calculations on herd immunity would assume an even distribution of immunity in the population as people mix more in their own cohorts, so you might have herd immunity in a care home but not amongst a group of 30 year olds who are yet to have a jab.

I see there being three issues though with ‘that kind of comparison is not being made clear’

1/ The general public do not in general understand risk. 1/47,000 have had clots with the AZ – so 46,999/47,000 haven’t?  And then there’s the ‘5x increase in risk’ – has to be bad, it’s an increase! But when that’s from miniscule to incredibly tiny…..

2/ The general public do not in general understand risk-benefit. A lot of what we do is ‘risky’, but we do it because we want or need to. MTBing, DIY, Gardening, driving…..so we accept almost without thought (I can tell you the 1/47,000 stat above but what’s the risk of me seriously injuring myself on a ride? I reckon it’s low enough and I enjoy riding, so where’s my plastic hat…..)

Exacerbated when the risk is to us but the benefit is to others. What’s really in it for the youngsters? (Devil’s advocate, not my opinion) – Vaccine passports will be squashed eventually, we don’t live in that kind of state and herd immunity will enable opening anyway. Or, we can refuse to have the vaccine and keep the country locked down and held to ransom until they open up. Especially when the benefit is to sections of society that are perceived, rightly or wrongly (ans: it’s a grey area) to have polluted the planet and left us to deal with it, soaked up all the affordable houses, voted us out of freedom of movement. Or businesses, being bolstered by Gov cash but desperate to reopen so they can employ us on min wage / zero hours contracts under new non-EU employment laws…. but pretty please roll your sleeve up so we can get on with life. (Oh, and while you’re waiting do you mind if I have 2 weeks on Mallorca?)

3/ It’s actually relatively easy to distill the data and science down into bite sized and digestible nuggets of info that the general public could understand. Three word slogans, even, or words on a bus work well. But (and on balance I think this is a good thing) – we still live in a country where freedom of thought and libertarian values are high. The downside is that in this information war, there’s a guerilla enemy. One that can cut down any properly produced and reviewed data and opinion, whether as a paper or a short instruction, by dismissing it as propaganda or conspiracy. And given this and previous Gov’s appalling record on truth, who can blame there being scepticism. Meanwhile – the other side don’t have to worry about such annoyances as peer review or scrutiny. They don’t even have to show their working; “I can’t say who but I have a mate who really knows her stuff, and she’s extensively researched this and I trust her when she says it’s all down to space lizards” – retweeted a few thousand times to people inclined to believe that – how do you counter it?

There will be a significant drop off in uptake in the over 30s age group now I assume. Folks that were swithering whether to get it will think it’s not worth it.

I’m assuming every one over 30 will be getting the az version now that they need to keep stocks of the others for the under 30s. Cant see how that doesn’t impact the timeline of end of July

I was hoping to get one of the others purely as I thought they were more effective against the other strains but that hope has gone out the window

There will be a significant drop off in uptake in the over 30s age group now I assume. Folks that were swithering whether to get it will think it’s not worth it.

But does that even matter if herd immunity has been reached?

But does that even matter if herd immunity has been reached?

Why do you think heard immunity will have been reached? The whole concept of it has already been disproved has it not? (due to the nature of the virus.)

Why do you think heard immunity will have been reached? The whole concept of it has already been disproved has it not? (due to the nature of the virus.)

Sorry not me saying that, the scientists at UCL.

There will be a significant drop off in uptake in the over 30s age group now I assume. Folks that were swithering whether to get it will think it’s not worth it.

I’m assuming every one over 30 will be getting the az version now that they need to keep stocks of the others for the under 30s. Cant see how that doesn’t impact the timeline of end of July

I was hoping to get one of the others purely as I thought they were more effective against the other strains but that hope has gone out the window

Which will have knock on effects on the Covid Passport policy or the music/events/nightlife industry.