Which will have knock on effects on the Covid Passport policy or the music/events/nightlife industry.

Indeed, has not the USA just ruled out any vaccine passport or certificate, on the grounds of privacy, human rights, discrimination and all the potential pitfalls that could come with having a two tier society?

Meanwhile – the other side don’t have to worry about such annoyances as peer review or scrutiny. They don’t even have to show their working; “I can’t say who but I have a mate who really knows her stuff, and she’s extensively researched this and I trust her when she says it’s all down to space lizards” – retweeted a few thousand times to people inclined to believe that – how do you counter it?

But unless you yourself have personally read, understood and analysed all the underlying science, and I mean all of it, you too are leaping to conclusions based on blind faith.

So when you’re married to that person, and they do have workings, and they don’t blame it on something patently silly like Bill Gates or lizards, what do you do?

Well, ask STW, obvs.

Are there any figures for how many people offered the vaccine have turned it down?

What’s your alternative approach chrispo?

If you’re rejecting vaccination how do you as an individual carry on with life? How should wider society approach this?

Are there any figures for how many people offered the vaccine have turned it down?

There’s an uptake number I believe. Probably best you go look that up. That will tell you what percentage of offers were not, err, taken up.

But unless you yourself have personally read, understood and analysed all the underlying science, and I mean all of it, you too are leaping to conclusions based on blind faith.

Trusting the credibility of sources and hence the reliability of their evidence is not ‘blind faith’, it’s the whole purpose of peer review and examination that the people giving the information can be trusted. Failure to do that is the beginnings of conspiracy….

You might trust your wife completely (didn’t you say ex wife before?) and so trust her evidence but I not knowing who you are talking about, I can’t give her the same credibility as Prof Whitty, or JVT, or the EMA or MHRA. But bring the data/evidence and I’ll happily look at it.

A particularly well constructed presentation on the risk/reward of AZ, used as the basis of last night’s briefing
https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communicating-potential-benefits-and-harms-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/

A particularly well constructed presentation on the risk/reward of AZ, used as the basis of last night’s briefing
https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communicating-potential-benefits-and-harms-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/

Alright jab it in me, that’s pretty compelling when you look at it like that.

Thread reader not working for me too.

Assume that the risk of thrombolytic events is fixed at about 4/million, irrespective of age, and that is presumably what the data shows across the 79 cases (plus a further 80 in EMA dataset). The risk of mortality is perhaps 1% in the 80+ group, that’s 10,000/million, so a ratio of 2500:1 in favour. If the mortality risk halves about every five years, so 70’s is 600:1, 60’s 300:1, 50’s is 150:1, 40’s is 75:1, 30’s is 30:1 20’s is 15:1. In fact the halving every half-decade my be an under-estimate for younger age groups, but one can see that the benefit risk falls such that a cut-off is reasonable. Where that cut off falls is a clinical judgement.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3259 is a nice accessible read on risk of death from David Spiegelhalter

Identification of such a risk is a triumph of pharmacovigilence. the rigor to which COVID has been studied is hugely greater than many other diseases. My wife is allergic to paracetamol. A drug so widely used that most medical professionals simply do not accept this as an effect. But very rare events are just that. Acetominophen is the US name for paracetamol.

The latest I’ve seen on uptake is this Uptake in over 70s. 90% uptake. Of course that’s only over 70s and predates the concerns over blood clots.

What’s your alternative approach chrispo? If you’re rejecting vaccination how do you as an individual carry on with life? How should wider society approach this?

I’m not rejecting vaccination. I have already taken one for the team. I was originally questioning the blind faith in the official line on here, and now I’m just calling out the bullies for what they are. Yes, I know it’s pointless, but it has given me a certain satisfaction.

There’s an uptake number I believe. Probably best you go look that up. That will tell you what percentage of offers were not, err, taken up

I mean specifically for people who have actively refused the vaccine, not including people who haven’t taken it due to other conditions or just didn’t turn up for some reason. I mean the heaving masses of anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists who were set to bring about the imminent demise of mankind not too long ago. It’s making some people here look a little silly now.

You might trust your wife completely (didn’t you say ex wife before?) and so trust her evidence but I not knowing who you are talking about, I can’t give her the same credibility as Prof Whitty, or JVT, or the EMA or MHRA

I don’t and I didn’t, which is why I sought other opinions, and she wasn’t but now she is. The government and the NHS and the drug companies have just as much of an axe to grind as the anti-vaxxers. They’re all very capable of using the same data to support very different positions. So it probably pays to remain sceptical about all of them. Which is where this all started.

Oh. Right. I’m out. Again.

BBC news last night was all about the risk of clots in the headlines, but in the actual head to head with the health correspondent he pointed out that someone aged 20-30 was much more likely to die in a car accident, but no one was suggesting they stop driving. I got the impression their “expert” was getting fed up of editorial headline grabbing.

Well, the news was about a policy change in regard to AZ for under 30s, so that is the story, the hard part is learning to communicate the nature of risk to the layperson. The public has spent decades throwing their hard-earned at the lottery, when there is more chance of getting struck by lightning than winning.

The human focus is always hardwired on the individual big loser/winner rather than the millions who did not win or lose.

Which will have knock on effects on the Covid Passport policy or the music/events/nightlife industry.

As a bit of a cynic, I suspect the proposal of a covid passport for nightclubs etc is more to drive uptake in the under 30s before July. ‘Get your jab, you’ll need it to go out later in the summer’.
I do wonder if it will ever actually see light of day.

Anecdotal, but out of the people I know who’ve had the jab, (AZ I think but can’t confirm 100%), three have suffered flu like symptoms such that they have had to go to bed for 2-3 days. One, since having the jab over a month ago has been left with constant and severe headaches and has been unable to work since having it. Many to be fair have also had no symptoms.

Read into that what you will but it is clear that there are some more common but less serious side effects out there than the rare instances of clotting.

I am pro-vax but after this I am undecided whether I’ll have it now. The government propaganda and threats of vaccine passports (coercion) makes me suspicious and is starting to turn me off. Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don’t feel I’m at any great risk from Covid-19 either. I therefore have the luxury, not being vulnerable to make my own risk assessment. The other factor is that I am pretty certain that my wife and I had Covid early last year after returning back from our ski trip to Italy. We couldn’t get a test at the time however the symptoms were mild, but as described.

One, since having the jab over a month ago has been left with constant and severe headaches and has been unable to work since having it.

Hopefully he/she has gone to be checked out to exclude thrombosis.

Hopefully he/she has gone to be checked out to exclude thrombosis.

I don’t know to be honest. It’s the dad of one of my best friends. I think it’s a bit of a struggle convince a GP to see you face to face these days in my experience.

I am pro-vax but after this I am undecided whether I’ll have it now. The government propaganda and threats of vaccine passports (coercion) makes me suspicious and is starting to turn me off. Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don’t feel I’m at any great risk from Covid-19 either.

You may not be, but all the people you might effect could be. If you decide not have the vaccination I hope you’re considering others and ensuring you undertake hardcore social distancing relevant to your classification as a “Spreader”. What you gamble with your own life is your business, but you need to realise the impact of this decision upon others, not just yourself.

Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don’t feel I’m at any great risk from Covid-19 either.

You’re not at risk from dying from it (well, very very low risk), but you are at risk of scratching “fit and healthy” from the way you describe yourself. Anyone who enjoys cycling should be careful not to take their health for granted. I’ll be taking the vaccine as soon as it’s available to me. Any version. My teens I hope will get the Pfizer one.

It’s making some people here look a little silly now

What’s making people look silly? All the evidence suggests a miniscule chance of adverse affects leading to death. This is to be expected with any vaccine or drug, nothing has changed in that regard. No-one has tried to hide that fact since the vaccine’s launch.

The fact that you are coming on here gleefully saying ‘ I told you so’ after they discover a 1 in a million risk of taking the vaccine, simply marks you out as someone that didnt really understand the risks in the first place

Re people having an axe to grind. My brother is on the UK vaccine safety panel. I’m pretty sure if he thought there was a risk he would not have had it himself, nor his wife, nor his mum and dad. And I’m pretty sure hed tell me there is an issue before I get my dose.

And I imagine he knows a little more about the risks than your wife..

A particularly well constructed presentation on the risk/reward of AZ, used as the basis of last night’s briefing
https://wintoncentre.maths.cam.ac.uk/news/communicating-potential-benefits-and-harms-astra-zeneca-covid-19-vaccine/

Alright jab it in me, that’s pretty compelling when you look at it like that.

I agree, totally compelling to me.

But it takes a certain level of commitment and ability to read and understand that. My wife’s far from the bottom of the intelligence pile but I don’t think she would….

So we distil it to a simple headline type statement that can be read and understood, and then people dismiss it as propaganda and/or axe to grind.

The only axe being ground is that some very very smart people who both understand this completely, and want absolutely the best for the country want people to have the vaccine, for their and the societal good.

As a scientist, I trust other scientists and the peer review process. If I don’t then I no longer have no solid foundation of belief. Blind faith…I don’t think so but YMMV.

You may not be, but all the people you might effect could be. If you decide not have the vaccination I hope you’re considering others and ensuring you undertake hardcore social distancing relevant to your classification as a “Spreader”.

THIS is exactly the sort of comment that is helping to put me off taking it. Social pressure to conform, peer pressure and judgement from others (coercion) to do the right thing (as defined by them) if you like.

Up to you pal. This isn’t going away. Will you reject it in the autumn too? What about next year? You know roughly what the risks are now – what happens if a new variant gets really nasty?

Your choice of course.

Edit: but you seem to be saying ‘I’m not taking it because you all want me to’.

You’re not being pushed by mates in to snorting coke here. Society is trying to look after you AND itself.

you are at risk of scratching “fit and healthy” from the way you describe yourself. Anyone who enjoys cycling should be careful not to take their health for granted

This. Remember that benefit risk is evaluated for the observable endpoint benefits. For COVID19 those endpoints have been symptomatic infection, hospital admission, ICU admission and death. The last two are pretty firm numbers. Hospital admissions is confounded by NHS burden and symptomatic infection confounded by testing practices. Long COVID does not feature in amy evaluations since the epidemic is still early and studies are only starting.

Evidence suggests a significant proportion of moderately infected patients (perhaps 10% or more) take significant time to recover. Morbidity is a significant factor and the vaccines are all most definitely protective against this. Having had moderate COVID, I would not wish it on anyone. I have also had the Ox/AZ vaccine. COVID was a lot worse!

Risk is poorly understood in the general population. If you are old enough, you may recall the contraception clotting scare that led to an unintended epidemic of pregnancy. Airlines were disproportionately affected.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/9368943/

Hopefully he/she has gone to be checked out to exclude thrombosis.

Unfortunately, not knowing what those symptoms actually signified meant that my partner didn’t bother, but then decided she ought to call 111 the next morning. That was the morning I found her in the throes of a cerebral venus thrombosis, which meant she was dying in front of me. It’s far too late now, but the knowledge, and the statement from Thrombosis UK on the BBC this morning that anyone exhibiting symptoms should get help, as treatment can be given has taken my fragile recovery and smashed it into fragments.
I’m heartbroken, I just don’t know how to get past this.
My beautiful Joey, nothing can replace what you brought into my life.

Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don’t feel I’m at any great risk from Covid-19 either.

You are not but this risk is still something like 10 times greater than your risk of having an seriously adverse reaction to the vaccine.

THIS is exactly the sort of comment that is helping to put me off taking it.

Unsurprisingly, it is an individual decision but the above ratio puts it into perspective.

CZ – so sorry to hear that.

Unfortunately, not knowing what those symptoms actually signified meant that my partner didn’t bother, but then decided she ought to call 111 the next morning. That was the morning I found her in the throes of a cerebral venus thrombosis, which meant she was dying in front of me. It’s far too late now, but the knowledge, and the statement from Thrombosis UK on the BBC this morning that anyone exhibiting symptoms should get help, as treatment can be given has taken my fragile recovery and smashed it into fragments.
I’m heartbroken, I just don’t know how to get past this.
My beautiful Joey, nothing can replace what you brought into my life.

Internet hugs from me, pal.

Thoughts with you and yours CountZero.

no words CZ

but the knowledge, and the statement from Thrombosis UK on the BBC this morning that anyone exhibiting symptoms should get help, as treatment can be given has taken my fragile recovery and smashed it into fragments.

There’s no way to know whether you could have changed anything or not, incredibly hard for you to see that now, but you did the best anyone could at the time.

Up to you pal. This isn’t going away. Will you reject it in the autumn too? What about next year? You know roughly what the risks are now – what happens if a new variant gets really nasty?

Your choice of course.

Edit: but you seem to be saying ‘I’m not taking it because you all want me to’.

You’re not being pushed by mates in to snorting coke here. Society is trying to look after you AND itself.

Having just looked up the variants thing, from the quick internet search I just did (never the best I know), the furthest variant would seem to be just 0.3% difference from the original strain detected, nowhere near enough of a difference to make any of the existing vaccines ineffective. And don’t variants usually get less dangerous as the virus mutates? After all a variant that does not make its host very ill will spread much more easily? Please correct me if what I have assumed is wrong here though.

I haven’t decided whether or not I will take it. I may still do but I haven’t been offered it yet in any case. What I object to is having others implying that I am somehow not a person who cares about others if I do not submit to an experimental vaccine, however safe it is. It feels that in most instances the hidden motive of these people is probably that they want ME to take something, possibly against my will or judgement (to be confirmed), to keep THEM safe.

The data is out there on the risks of Coronavirus and I am at very low risk from it, an almost negligible risk compared to the many other things that I can’t take a vaccine for. Others may feel different in which case I am very pleased that there is a vaccine on offer that will protect them pretty damn well and help them to feel safe, whether others have been vaccinated or not. Meanwhile my neighbour who is a consultant oncologist at our local main hospital has told me that the uptake of the vaccine amongst her colleagues is around 50/50. In the NHS! I am wondering why?

Anyway it all feels like a moot point in any case now since on Monday according to ULC scientists we will have reached herd immunity. Therefore it seems immoral to keep throwing money at Covid vaccinations, testing (and at Matt Handcock’s mates) if that is the case, when there are so many people waiting for NHS treatment that has been delayed due to our prioritisation of Covid above all else over the last 12 months. And as for people suggesting we give an experimental vaccination to young children who are unable to consent, and who are at practically zero risk from Covid in any case. Risking the kids to make the adults feel safer! What planet are they on!

Countzero I am sorry for your loss and agreed, very useful and important to know the warning signs. Thanks for sharing.

And don’t variants usually get less dangerous as the virus mutates? After all a variant that does not make its host very ill will spread much more easily? Please correct me if what I have assumed is wrong here though.

Not wrong. As a generalisation. But this virus can already be spread asymptomatically, so already spreads easily, irrespective of symptoms that come later on in the infection.

Therefore it seems immoral to keep throwing money at Covid vaccinations, testing (and at Matt Handcock’s mates) if that is the case, when there are so many people waiting for NHS treatment that has been delayed due to our prioritisation of Covid above all else over the last 12 months.

This feels like I’ve strayed onto the wrong Facebook post. I’m out.

Yes it is probably very safe, but at 41 and fit and healthy I don’t feel I’m at any great risk from Covid-19 either. I therefore have the luxury, not being vulnerable to make my own risk assessment.

You sure about that? As CZ pointed out currently your risk from being ICU’d because of COVID is 10 times greater than having a blood clot due to the vaccine. However if we have another wave and infection rate goes up to January rates then your risk from COVID is 100 times more than vaccine harm and even if you don’t get hospitalized the effects of the Kent variant are supposed to me more severe than the original variant you think you had.

As for not doing something just because everyone is telling you to. Well sometimes if everyone is telling you to do something it actually is the right thing to do.

Therefore it seems immoral to keep throwing money at Covid vaccinations,

when there are so many people waiting for NHS treatment that has been delayed due to our prioritisation of Covid above all else over the last 12 months.

And as for people suggesting we give an experimental vaccination to young children who are unable to consent, and who are at practically zero risk from Covid in any case. Risking the kids to make the adults feel safer

curlywhirly

Joined April 6, 2021

Again?

Anyway it all feels like a moot point in any case now since on Monday according to ULC scientists we will have reached herd immunity.

Unfortunately as the Kent variant is 50% more transmissible we need to get the % of population with antibodies up to more like 80-90% to achieve herd immunity rather than the 60-70% we have now.

Anyway I’m starting to think your mind is closed to reason.

But this virus can already be spread asymptomatically

Is there new evidence for that? I thought that had been largely debunked as a main driver of transmission?

the furthest variant would seem to be just 0.3% difference from the original strain detected,

That is in no way scientifically legit

This is the same guy coming back time and again with different logins 🙄

THIS is exactly the sort of comment that is helping to put me off taking it. Social pressure to conform, peer pressure and judgement from others (coercion) to do the right thing (as defined by them) if you like.

Yeah, you stick it to The Man just to prove a point to yourself.

It feels that in most instances the hidden motive of these people is probably that they want ME to take something, possibly against my will or judgement (to be confirmed), to keep THEM safe.

I don’t want people to be forced to take a vaccine against their will. I would like everyone who can get a vaccine to do so, including those at low risk of COVID related complications, to help protect the population as a whole. I don’t think this is a controversial opinion.

This is the same guy coming back time and again with different logins

Sorry but whatever your beef is with someone, that someone is not me. I have signed up on Tuesday yes, but if I am not supposed to comment on this thread as a new joiner then please let me know and I will stick to the other threads instead. Cheers 🙂