Still no talk of us teachers being vaccinated anytime soon.

No.

[ can’t expand on that answer without breaking the **** swear filter ]

why is it only you saying so?

It’s not – plenty of people have noted how cautious the government have been on vaccine rollout – not unreasonably. But as far as this precise calculation, I bother to look at underlying assumptions, can count and multiply -other prefer to post diarrheticly.

Aren’t you a clever boy.

You know what they say about assumption…

Aren’t you a clever boy.

I wouldn’t regard basic arithmetic and largely refraining from posting banal bollocks on the internet as a particularly good indicator of intelligence, so no.

You know what they say about assumption…

Indeed which is why I noted it was based on assumptions, it is also why if I get the chance I like to look at the underlying assumptions.

Who are the modellers? Interested why there’s such a discrepancy (6 weeks in a 13 or 19 week delivery plan to the same endpoint is quite a difference?)

Who are the modellers? Interested why there’s such a discrepancy (6 weeks in a 13 or 19 week delivery plan to the same endpoint is quite a difference?)

It’s not the point estimates, rather the regions of prediction uncertainty. Models by both Imperial and Warwick provide overlapping intervals. Assumptions are of course always a challenge – how much protection? what roll-out rate? What is the effect on transmission? What other policies might change? etc…

the picture I painted up there with simple but robust arguments is, unfortunately, not going to be far wrong. The models quantify this and overlay precision. Whether such precision is necessary for policy is a moot point. One can argue it helps frame the decision, but those skilled in the art would always be advising caution in interpretation.

I’ve said it before, but the more you understand numbers, the less willing you are to act on any single prediction 😉 – that’s certainly been my experience in modelling in multiple fields.

Don’t call them “predictions”… that’s the starting point to better use.

Anyway… I’ll ignore talk of us all getting the first jab before 21st June ’till I’ve heard it from someone fully across the vaccine rollout, rather than someone who thinks it can be discerned by using just basic arithmetic using a few headline numbers. I really hope you’re right Mefty, and I will cheer if it turns out that you are.

Millions of high-grade NHS masks withdrawn over safety concerns

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56167916

must admit it was very galling to see Matt Hancock has said that there had been no PPE shortages, knowing the lengths some of my colleagues had to go to get hold of scrubs, goggles, gloves & sanitiser in March

@slowpuncheur thanks for the kind words mate.

No side effects at all today I’m glad to say. Even the arm isn’t sore. Though I have less sensation in that seem due to a Neuro issue so that mask soreness a little!

I’m going for an eye test late next month now, can’t wait.lol Not been happy about having one over the last year and my glasses/eyes are a little buggered.😁

kimbers
Full Member
must admit it was very galling to see Matt Hancock has said that there had been no PPE shortages, knowing the lengths some of my colleagues had to go to get hold of scrubs, goggles, gloves & sanitiser in March

Total reality denial! 😠

“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.”

Poopscoop – with Pfizer I believe the reaction is often 2 days post jab.

NickC – the situation is similar here – my local rural centre struggles to get staff from the NHS bank as they don’t want to travel. Meanwhile as a St John vaccinator I am only allowed to work at the big centre. Even though I’m 2 miles from the understaffed one. Plus the NHS have stopped recruitment – I’ve completed their training but they’ve stopped recruiting.

@tired, was not aimed at you. It was mefty who said modellers were suggesting 4M vaccinations per week x 13 weeks.

I agree your modelling is far harder, but this one is easy, doesn’t rely on transmission rates or protection, just rate X weeks X uptake. Hence why I’m intrigued why the two estimated end points for every adult to have had at least one dose differ from Gov to mefty’s modellers by so much.

And I can’t find a reference to these 4M/WK anywhere, so whose model is being referenced?

dantsw13
Free Member
Poopscoop – with Pfizer I believe the reaction is often 2 days post jab.

Really? I’ve got some paracetamol in if I feel a little “fluey”.

Regarding teachers, it seems insane that they aren’t being called up asap to have the vaccination. Should have happened already allowing for the 3 week period after the jab to become effective.

Poopscoop – you may well get nothing at all! I completely agree with regards to teachers.

Germany are vaccinating teachers as well as vulnerable now, be interesting to see if government will do so here

And I can’t find a reference to these 4M/WK anywhere, so whose model is being referenced?

SPI-M paper – see Key Changes section para 2 (and also first assumption in Key Assumption table)

Not sure if the teachers vaccine is up to the schools? I have a couple of friends who are teachers and have had the vaccine, early 30’s no health conditions, also have one friend who is a science teacher and she refused to have it…guess it’s personal choice.

Thanks Mefty. Interesting, fingers crossed they can reach that rate. Also still query why on that rate (and I agree completely with your maths, was only sceptical on the rate) that would see us all done by Jun 21 whereas the Gov is so different (52M/19 weeks = 2.75M). In fact – we’ll be done sooner than Jun 21st, using a variant of your calc. Namely:

If we can do 4M / wk from last week in March. we’re still doing 2.5M/week currently give or take, so in 5 weeks to end March that’s another 12.5M, on top of the 18M first dosed and 650K double dosed.

If we consider then that’s 17.4M needing a second dose; and 34M as yet undosed (52-18) and we need to do the 17.4M again, we need 51.4M to give all adults at least one dose

12.5M at current rate to end March leaves 38.9M to do at 4M per week = 10 weeks. End May/early June.

It’s more complex than that because we don’t know how many second doses come up to their 12w window before the first doses can all be completed, which is where I think the date goes out, then again 52M is the total – does not account for refusals, not able to have vaccine, etc within the >18 population.

French also only offering 1 dose to those already with antibodies

We are all in a giant clinical trial!

This weeks vaccine numbers down, which links in with my experience – we’ve been standing staff down due to low bookings.

News articles suggest we are low on supplies until Pfizer upgraded plant comes back on stream. I guess we burnt our stocks meeting the 15th deadline.

TOJV – I imagine also that whilst 4m/week will happen, there are bound to be supply issues/bad weeks so there’s some fat in their dates.

French also only offering 1 dose to those already with antibodies

My aunt is a district nurse in her 60s in Paris. She’s spent the last year coordinating and undertaking home visits to some of the most vulnerable population. She got her first jab recently, and then a message to say when to return to hospital for her second jab. Then another message cancelling the appointment and saying to get the second one from a GP. She said the all GPs in France are being provided a single 10 dose vial. One.Single.Vial. So good luck getting that second dose.

She did manage to get back to London to look after her mum (my Nan) after she was discharged from hospital after a week for a non-related issue. Sadly my Nan contracted COVID-19 in the hospital and was discharged without having been told. She was asymptomatic fortunately, but my type 1 diabetic Granddad, her full-time carer, wasn’t so lucky. My aunt spent a few days looking after them both before he needed oxygen. He’s since passed.

Ultimately, he needn’t have died. As cold as it might sound, he was in better psychological and physical shape than my Nana, and I can’t help thinking that he might have had a better quality of life for his last years after she had died.

Living in Australia and working in hospitals (where I see and hear all kinds of problems too) it’s hard to not be staggered at the incompetence of a system that tests and releases before confirming the test results. Potentially there are thousands of people leaving hospitals COVID+ and infecting people.

My Dad wants to try and get this point across. I know the system here and where I would take this issue, but it’s hard to judge where to go to try and influence decision-making in the UK, given the utter shit show. Does anyone know if it’s worth trying anything, or where to go to get the story heard?

dantsw13
Free Member
TOJV – I imagine also that whilst 4m/week will happen, there are bound to be supply issues/bad weeks so there’s some fat in their dates.

absolutely whoever is pulling Johnsons string now is finally getting him to stop over-promising

My Dad wants to try and get this point across. I know the system here and where I would take this issue, but it’s hard to judge where to go to try and influence decision-making in the UK, given the utter shit show. Does anyone know if it’s worth trying anything, or where to go to get the story heard?

Im sorry reeksy, you could try the health correspondent at the guardian, https://twitter.com/sarahboseley?lang=en

but honestly your story is one that 1000s of others could tell and I cant see it getting it to stick on a government who will simply deny everything

Sorry to hear that Reeksy – A very similar situation happened with my Aunt/Uncle:

Uncle was taken into hospital for non-covid related issue. He was discharged while clearly displaying covid-symptoms, but either hadn’t had a test before discharge, or the results hadn’t been received…. but discharged he was.

He spent less than 24 hrs at home with my Aunt before needing to be re-hospitalised (this time for Covid), and he died fairly soon afterwards.
Unfortunately, that night at home with my Aunt was sufficient to pass it to her. She has recovered (thank goodness) but it very easily could have claimed both of them.

I was/am absolutely enraged that they sent somebody who so obviously had COVID (they died of it literally within the next day or so) home to their elderly spouse – but I understand that this pattern was repeated up and down the country, often with worse consequences (nursing homes).

Thanks @kimbers and @batfink – sorry that happened to your family.

My Nan is now in an aged care home as a result, so the impact potentially continues…

But i’m not suggesting the government are responsible here, more that the hospital/Trust needs to make modifications to their workflows to prevent further harm. It’s essentially a patient safety incident that in ‘normal times’ (or if it occurred where I work) requires assessment. Yes, there are 1000s of others … that’s kind of the point really.

It’s essentially a patient safety incident that in ‘normal times’ (or if it occurred where I work) requires assessment.

I would say that the trust will certainly have a (well used) complaints procedure – and that’s effectively what this is. Making a complaint to the trust is probably as constructive as you can hope for – they will invariably have a procedure in place to ascertain whether there were any mistakes made, and a commitment to address if so.

I would however, be clear with yourself that probably the most desirable outcome here is that it helps your dad’s grieving process, rather than any more tangible return.

Thanks. It’s pretty much what i suggested to him. I don’t think it’s really part of his grieving, more civic duty. He feels he should do something to raise the issue. Even if nobody listens, at least he’ll have spoken up.

Terrible stories both. I know not unusual.

I actually think the plan is pretty reasonable as a starting point. My worry is that the govt will anchor to it and refuse to modify in the light of data, until it is too late to avoid significant additional harm. That’s what they have done throughout the pandemic.

An obvious scenario is that cases start to rise as schools go back, but they press ahead with further opening up in late March. Well, we can hope for some luck.

Not sure if the teachers vaccine is up to the schools?

No

Not all the papers are quite so gung-ho on the dates not data

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/24/the-forecasts-that-spooked-boris-johnson-into-slowing-exit-from-lockdown

referencing the SPI-M-O work. Unfortunately most of the population don’t read the Guardian. Telegraph headline: Faster Path to Freedom if Jabs Exceed Expectations, pushing the point that Data not Dates cuts two ways.

What many seem to forget it, it’s not down to ‘us’ regarding flights etc.

Just because our government say we can fly somewhere, doesn’t mean that country will actually allow us to go there.

From a UK perspective, we just need a little patience, we’ve done it for a year now, another 6-8 weeks and things will get better… it’s all good. The sun is back, spring is coming… embrace it 🙂

So schools are expected to open up over the summer. With a princely six grand per primary and twenty grand per secondary. Presumably that keeps the lights on and pays for cleaning and insurance, with teachers turning up for free. 🤣

An average £6k per primary and £22k per secondary school isn’t going to go very far for this summer school catchup project, when it’s technically overtime for the teachers… And that’s if they want and have the energy to do it, teachers very much deserve their summer break this year!

Think I read last night that Labour claim the total financial package is less than that given to “Eat out to help Covid out.” It sounds like another poorly thought through Boris project.

It’s a good idea if the teachers weren’t already completely fried from a year of home learning and hokey-cokey policy changes

So schools are expected to open up over the summer.

Isn’t that going to need a big change to terms and conditions?

#BBCBreakfast “What do you think they (schools) can provide for £6,000?”

Gavin Williamson “They may be able to employ teachers..”

That would not even cover a single teachers salary pic.twitter.com/FVWBMvigwo

— Peter Stefanovic (@PeterStefanovi2) February 24, 2021