Inevitably Pretty much every single paper lists the dates or counts them down on the front pages

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-56163189

Given their crap track record they should be commended for recognising they’re crap and letting local NHS Trusts get on with it.

They will no doubt take all the glory but if people are getting jabbed it’s a small price to pay.

    “Success has many Fathers, failure is an orphan”

Hi TiRed – at this point in time do you have an estimate of what percentage of the population has actually had Covid-19?

Assume that perhaps 10-20% of this half have had it already. That leaves a pool of 40% (26M) of the population of presumably young and healthy, but susceptible people to infect when you release the brakes.

And as the article I linked yesterday put it – buying the virus 26M lottery tickets, no surprise if it wins the jackpot and comes up with a nasty variant.

This will be data driven but it seems that half the population are ignoring that part and are now booking holidays etc based on those dates alone. Bojo needed to present this ‘roadmap’ as a deal between Gov and the public. If the public continue to follow the rules, get vaccinated etc, then the good stuff will follow

I think you give the public too much credit. Sure a lot of the messaging has been confusing but also a large number of the public are complete **** idiots.

As always, thanks @TiRed for explaining so succinctly where things lie. It’s so easy to lose your way in the hyperbole and spin. Of course, this won’t stop those numpties booking cheap non-refundable easyjet flights to more risky countries and being left high and dry if things change. I await their voxpop on the evening news from Heathrow with weary schadenfreude.

Most of the population aren’t really interested in “The News”. That’s become abundantly obvious on many issues.

JoePud – completely agree re the NHS. I just wanted to point out it goes well beyond GPs.

My areas vaccition site is “GP led”. It’s actually run by a furloughed 747 pilot!

The expected rush of holiday enquiries hasn’t happened today this may be due to our particular clientele being mainly well educated and older than the norm.

There’s a tendency in our News reporting to be glib about qualification of how it’s going to be possible to relax restrictions. 10 o’clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?

Hi TiRed – at this point in time do you have an estimate of what percentage of the population has actually had Covid-19?

Less than 20%. Note that serology now has to factor in proportion vaccinated. But to all intents vaccination = past infection as a means of protection

It’s actually run by a furloughed 747 pilot!

People that are used to command in complex systems are going to be good running other systems shokka! – and technically is the pilot now an ex-747 pilot? Since they’ve all been decommissioned 🙁 I’m immensely impressed by your volunteering btw. When things are back to normal (and they will return, I am in no doubt), you’ll be able to say you made a difference.

And hot off the press! I think I have evidence of vaccine efficacy where I thought I would. early days, but COVID deaths in males 75+ seem to have a signal of interest. Code checking now…

That’s good news!

Yes, sadly correct as the jumbos have been turned into Pepsi cans now 😞.

The number of volunteers stepping up is amazing. On top of all the people on a local level helping out in all sorts of ways throughout the pandemic.

10 o’clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?

All the assumptions in the models are on the cautious side – lower vaccine uptake and effectiveness, no seasonal benefit etc – so everything would have to be worse than expected for us to fail the “tests”

Is it a real concern that once it runs through the younger ages again it does mutate into something much more dangerous to them? I know the Spanish flu was different, but it ended up killing multiple age groups at different stages in the pandemic.

I was really hoping that the rule of 6 would return sooner 🙁

You’ll be meeting up outside in groups like that very soon stcolin… it’s just indoors meet-ups that need to be avoided for longer. Wise I think.

Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i’ll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.

I’d be bloody annoyed to make it through the last 18 months only to get covid a few weeks before Im due to get a jab!

Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i’ll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.

I was very surprised that day was given that way, a lot of people won’t have had the second jab by then.

Just FYI if it helps:

[url=https://flic.kr/p/2kEhaH7]

I was very surprised that day was given that way, a lot of people won’t have had the second jab by then.

a lot of people won’t have had any jab by then.

Hopefully vaccine passports, if they come, won’t be another test and trace lobbed out to the private sector.

Going to be interesting comparing what happens with Scotland vs England. If data not dates gets more community buy in. The date becomes the goal not the outcome that enables the change. Less motivation to put in the hard work if people are just waiting to get to a release date.

Think they are assuming 80 million vaccinations by then so first jab should be done and dusted for all,

The number of volunteers stepping up is amazing. On top of all the people on a local level helping out in all sorts of ways throughout the pandemic.

It’s an interesting ‘experiment’ on the No such thing as Society vs Big Society debate.

Results are in. Some people are absolute stars. Some are pricks. And then there’s everything in between.

so first jab should be done and dusted for all

Everyone to have had their first jab by 21st June? I’ve not read read that anywhere.

tpbiker Full Member
Given the end of lock down is the 21st of June, if ive not been vaccinated by then i’ll be making a point of keeping to myself until I am.

Feel exactly the same way, I won’t be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won’t be till mid/late August, there’s no way I’m risking long Covid!

Think they are assuming 80 million vaccinations by then so first jab should be done and dusted for all,

Nope, all adults to be offered first vaccine by 31/7

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-all-adults-to-be-offered-vaccine-by-end-of-july-under-pms-accelerated-plan-12224309

If the 66M population is equally split by age groups, under 18’s will be about 1/5 of the population, give or take so that’s about 52M over 18’s. Your 80M might be right but I think you’re underestimating the effect of the boosters on getting through the younger age groups (counter, lower than 100% uptake on those offered)

Just FYI if it helps:

indeed! im so excited for that stay local order to be lifted.

Nope, all adults to be offered first vaccine by 31/7

The modelers are assuming 4 million per week from March 21 so that 52 million jabs in the 13 weeks to June 21 enough to do the whole adult population, second does for those already vaccinated and first jabs for the remainder.

Some people should be getting two jabs in that period though, so there will be others getting no jab. I’ve no idea how many “some” is… but I can see why the government aren’t saying what you’re claiming Mefty. July is more realistic target to publish.

There’s a tendency in our News reporting to be glib about qualification of how it’s going to be possible to relax restrictions. 10 o’clock news last night on BBC was all these are the dates to begin and then glossing over that the dates are only possible if some strict conditions are met. Is this to fool the gullible, poor news reporting or to draw the fire from the CRG?

If these dates become too strongly embedded in the public consciousness then it’d take a firm and confident government to step up and delay them if the statistics don’t support them. I’m not sure whether the current government is up to that. They did (partly) roll back on the Christmas relaxation but I’m not sure they’d be able to resist the demand to follow the schedule they laid out yesterday irrespective of the facts on the ground.

Those are England only figures so plenty of leeway.

@Kryton57 – here’s a simpler infographic that’ll answer many people’s questions about the roadmap:

Feel exactly the same way, I won’t be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won’t be till mid/late August, there’s no way I’m risking long Covid

It’s like being in the Nam. If you are going to get it you may as well get it on day one. Getting COVID in July is akin to being shot on the last day of the war..

So Mefty, if you think all adults will get the first jab by June 21st… why is it only you saying so? Are the government and NHS just being cautious with their dates? I wouldn’t blame them if they were, but I think it’s just as likely that they’ve looked more closely at what the vaccine rollout can realistically achieve… either way, once/if it does look as if all adults will be offered their first jab in that timescale, with a reasonable degree of confidence, I’m sure it’ll become big news everywhere.

Lol @thepurist…

…..mmm…. beer gardens….

Feel exactly the same way, I won’t be going into any cafes/pubs till 3-4 weeks after my first jab. At 39 that probably won’t be till mid/late August, there’s no way I’m risking long Covid!

Good that your employment status allows you to worry about this. Not a dig at you, I am 100% with your thinking on this, just a shame that millions of others have been, will continue to be or shall soon be thrown under the bus

Although I saw a comment about ‘local lockdowns can still used where needed’ or something along those lines – I’ve not seen anything mentioning tiering? Is that idea thankfully gone?
RM.

Still no talk of us teachers being vaccinated anytime soon.

I’m expected back on the 8th with no social distancing in the classroom, and a shared staffroom with 11 others and no social distancing.

Are the government and NHS just being cautious with their dates?

In a few weeks when priority groups 1-9 will start to need their second injections, we’re going to have to double our through-put to maintain the same trajectory. Given that we’re finding it difficult to staff our site currently , at the moment I don’t know how we’re going to do this…

it’d take a firm and confident government to step up and delay them if the statistics don’t support them

As I said last night, I’m feeling that Government is now listening to science far more, so it wouldn’t be Gov that delays the dates if needed….they can just say that science told them to. No lose situation. And science don’t need to be populist, they just need to be right.

anagallis_arvensis – Full Member
Good that your employment status allows you to worry about this. Not a dig at you, I am 100% with your thinking on this, just a shame that millions of others have been, will continue to be or shall soon be thrown under the bus

I know you’re not and I couldn’t agree more. I said to my wife last night your exact words, teachers like yourself (and other professions) are being chucked under a bus. I wouldn’t want to be in classrooms full of kids and that’s got nothing to do with the fact that I don’t like kids!

FWIW my job does entail going out and surveying buildings but it’s pretty safe regarding Covid. I did nearly there myself or a window yesterday.

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