Deaths going up presumes the case increase isnt due to an increase in testing effort does it not. I’m totally out of the loop but is this the case?

So I’ll be making my own rules up, thanks. Seems like an awful lot of other people have decided the same.

I realise that you know this but some are not lucky enough to be able to afford to folliw their own rules. A majority cannot afford to and some like me will be back at school regardless. Even, or indeed because of, an offside ruling from Starmer schools will reopen regardless.

Cases are rising after adjusting for increased testing. This is a consequence of the unlocking. It just takes a couple of weeks to feed into the system and deaths follow. It is surprisingly slow actually. The curvature on the plot below (same analysis for CASES not deaths) is obvious. I think the daily fluctuations may be over-predicted. Ignore the last couple of days due to reporting lags. This analysis does not adjust for testing (deaths does not have to of course). You can see the nadir for cases is much earlier than deaths.

You can also see why @thecaptain and I keep banging on about exponential rather than linear plots.

PS if you like stats, the upturn in cases and deaths are statistically significant (P < 0.001). So that’s depressing!

Cases are rising after adjusting for increased testing.

You would think that mainstream news would be able to say such things but then I am still waiting for them to talk about deaths per 100 000 to compare countries!!

This is a consequence of the unlocking.

It’ more than just unlocking, it’s the holiday season with all that implies. I’ve had contact with family and friends all over Europe in the last month and so have many people I know. They’ve put me up in their houses, we’ve eaten together, travelled in cars together… .

It’s not quite life as normal, the handshakes and bises have gone, eveyone is washing their hands, car windows are left open as are house doors and windows. It’s a long way from confinement though and inevitably there will be transmission, an increase in cases and a few tragedies.

Being objective the Covid risk we took was lower than driving those crazy unlimited sections of German autobahns where we got stuck in accident jams and watched the air ambulances flying people out, probably lower than crashing my bike down one of the cols I rode and definitely lower than the risk Madame took on her horse today when he decided he didn’t want her sitting on him.

The majority of people catching the virus in France are in age groups with a very high chance of survival with few after effects. They are behaving rationally taking reasonable risks and I’m not going to criticise in that the system will cope, we won’t swamp the hospitals.

So they’re going to ban people from meeting each other in their homes/gardens but allow them to continue going down the pub? I have friends who work in the pub industry who I have massive sympathy for and anyone who knows me will confirm that I like a pint more than most, but this just seems utterly perverse on a number of levels. And do they really think anyone is obeying or enforcing the rule of only going down the pub with members of your household?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/english-pubs-likely-to-be-spared-new-covid-19-restrictions-no-10-says

Once again it seems that ideology trumps saving lives, with private firms being prioritised over publc bodies and testing being used as a propoganda tool

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/uk-virologists-criticise-handling-coronavirus-testing-contracts

From Daz’s link (and agree with all his post, including loving pubs, obvs)…

“No 10 is adamant to English schools will reopen fully after the summer. “You’ve heard from the prime minister on many occasions his absolute commitment to getting out children back into school in September,” the Downing Street spokesman said. “That’s vital for their education and their development. We are planning for all pupils in all year groups to return to school full time from the beginning of the autumn term.”

Wishing it won’t make it so… if the government doesn’t take the actions now to reduce community transmission in the next few weeks, schools will have to reduce on site learning, or risk whole years, or even the whole school, closing.

It’ more than just unlocking, it’s the holiday season with all that implies. I’ve had contact with family and friends all over Europe in the last month and so have many people I know. They’ve put me up in their houses, we’ve eaten together, travelled in cars together… .

And you thought this was a good idea… why?

And you thought this was a good idea… why?

Because the urge to socialise and be around friends and family is one that is hardwired into us. To go against that requires a huge effort on the part of everyone and and confidence that those efforts will not be in vain. Like it or not, and I say this as someone who has very little respect or deference to politicians or leaders, people need leadership to give them the motivation to go against their instincts. If there are any cracks or failures in that leadership, people will lose trust and fall back on their normal behaviour. it’s not because they are stupid or evil, they’re just being human. If our leaders want people to change their behaviour for the greater good, it can only be done if people trust them, and that trust is generated by transparency, competence, clear communication and a complete absence of any ulterior motives. Boris is failing on all these fronts, and the results are there to see in the statistics.

Boris is failing on all these fronts, and the results are there to see in the statistics.

I thought the French and German governments had been doing a far better job as regards all that, but that is viewing it from a distance.

The majority of people catching the virus in France are in age groups with a very high chance of survival with few after effects. They are behaving rationally taking reasonable risks and I’m not going to criticise in that the system will cope, we won’t swamp the hospitals.

The risks they are taking are with other people’s lives and long term health, not their own.

This is a long and damning account of the US response to Cv. Unfortunately a lot of the criticisms apply equally to us 🙁

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/coronavirus-american-failure/614191/?fbclid=IwAR0szpR_VCyS3GbxNZznfetNIZ0T00E8rOVmOPE4MhoIusZN5K11WW1vQmo

@dazh – Edukator is in SW France so the actions of Cummings’ govt are irrelevant

Bradford council seem to be suggesting that the local restrictions could be eased on 15th August if possible.

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/council-confirms-earliest-date-bradford-18709232

Has anyone else seen any other info on this?

I’d like to leave Calderdale to visit my parents in Wales (not seen them since January ☹️)

Tourists are very welcome here as Dumfries And Galloway relies on the tourist industry as there is **** all else in this area for employment…

There was something in the news this morning about rural areas being hit harder by the economic fall out from Covid. This could leave us with a bit of an economic cleansing of the countryside where those on lower income or without employment have to move to the towns / cities to try and get work. Going the other way is the more affluent home working population.

No 10 is adamant to English schools will reopen fully after the summer. “You’ve heard from the prime minister on many occasions his absolute commitment to getting out children back into school in September”

They aren’t going to be able to hide behind the oh it’s new everyone is having difficulty excuse on this one. Wasn’t it May when they started with the Schools are going back in June. Three months further on and there still doesn’t seem to be anything in terms of a coherent strategy. It this is following the form book September should see a switch to the usual bold re-imagining of the truth.

Cases are rising after adjusting for increased testing. This is a consequence of the unlocking. It just takes a couple of weeks to feed into the system and deaths follow. It is surprisingly slow actually.

Oh it’s just the testing does seem to be one of the favourite Covid denial lines. It’s slightly amusing when they are using to to argue against numbers compared to June – when testing had been ramped up.

If there are any cracks or failures in that leadership, people will lose trust and fall back on their normal behaviour. it’s not because they are stupid or evil, they’re just being human.

Im sorry Daz I don’t agree.   Many people have avoided “travelling all over Europe”.  Edukator is an intelligent individual, not one I’d expect to travel and meet people in a Neanderthal need for six pints of Stella like the Sun reading British public you imply.  I’m wondering how someone who contributes so much of an understanding and knowledge to this thread decides it’s a good idea to travel all over Europe which implies many different borders, cultures and people during a pandemic.

If he did it, one assumes others might have Well, we know people are re Spanish holidays etc and surely thats very wrong in the current situation, although we know point to point travelling is probably less worse than multiple destinations.

So my question remains, please explain to me how one thinks that’s a good idea, rather than blame it on Boris.   I don’t need Boris to tell not to stick my hand in a fire, although it’s hard wired in me to keep warm, so that’s a weak argument.

So they’re going to ban people from meeting each other in their homes/gardens but allow them to continue going down the pub?

Last night’s BBC report said that data “showed” most transmission is happening in domestic settings – the data wasn’t shown or referenced.

Our local suburban/rural pubs are on strict social distancing protocols or outside only. From what I’ve read in the news, pubs linked to clusters seem to be town and city centres.

Looking at it objectively, I can see why closing pubs may not alter infection rates enough to be worthwhile. But, as always, lack of transparency, rubbish communication and the justified distrust of anything the government says makes it hard to take an informed decision.

Our local suburban/rural pubs are on strict social distancing protocols or outside only.

The one we are using for the “retirement meet-up” in 2 weeks has emailed to tell us we are sitting outside to eat if the weather is reasonable and to bring appropriate clothing, socially distanced inside only if necessary, no service at the bar, no cash payments.

please explain to me how one thinks that’s a good idea

And sorry, I should have added to my post, that maybe its because I’m a natural introvert?  Although I recognise the need to “do something different” as Groundhog Day is very mentally tiring, maybe I don’t miss social interaction as much as most…?

Last night’s BBC report said that data “showed” most transmission is happening in domestic settings – the data wasn’t shown or referenced.

It’s a misleading use of data.

It was shown at the start that the people that you are most likely to pass covid onto are your own family in your own household. This “data” about domestic settings would still include this.

It would be a lot more useful if they could perhaps mention the next most likely settings for transmission, then we could have a clearer picture and message.

Probably avoiding it as the true message would read something like:

If you get covid, the most likely people you’ll infect are your family.
If you go the pub, that’s the easiest way to bring covid home.

maybe I don’t miss social interaction as much as most…?

We’re on holiday this week, and have had a real handwring over coming here or not. But then we are masters at avoiding others where we can and have very rarely eaten out on holiday or joined any crowds. Our biggest risk was visiting a very busy Glenlivet trail centres to see our old colleagues who run it on the way up.

I suspect a holiday involving airport, big apartment blocks, pub, meals out and wandering the harbour side in the crowds is rather different from a risk perspective.

Cases are rising after adjusting for increased testing. This is a consequence of the unlocking. It just takes a couple of weeks to feed into the system and deaths follow. It is surprisingly slow actually.

@TiRed – my understanding is that after a reported increase in cases we should then expect to see an increase in reported hospital admissions, the patients in hospital, then patients on ventilators, then deaths. At the moment the healthcare indicators all seem to be on a very slow decline or flat even though there’s been an upward trend in cases for around a month now. Could it be that we’re seeing more cases in younger folk who are not progressing through the healthcare system in the same way as the earlier peak, or is it more likely that the early uptick in cases is not yet feeding into the data (I’d expect a month is long enough to show in some of those indicators, but the change will obviously be small to begin with).

Could it be that we’re seeing more cases in younger folk

Nicola Sturgeon reported that most cases in Scotland are now in the 20-40 age group. Probably related to pub and other non-socially distant situations. I guess that adds a further delay to the infected-death timeline while they pass it on to their more vulnerable family. Isolation for the over 50s?

Lots of talk about CV19 running into Flu and cold season, I’d imagine that the sheer amount of people who are taking the right action with regards to distancing, masks etc will mean that there shouldn’t be as much transmission of seasonal illnesses?. Ditto hospital born infections, increased sterility procedures in hospitals and also – a big one for me that goes under the radar – virtually no visitors to hospital, you never ever seen folks washing hands etc when visiting, should help too.

Fingers crossed.

Fingers crossed.

Well, what about the opposite?   Could it be true that because we have been locked down our immune systems are  suppressed in someway by the lack of exposure to others, and potentially resurfacing at the beginning of winter means we are more susceptible to seasonal illness?

It was shown at the start that the people that you are most likely to pass covid onto are your own family in your own household. This “data” about domestic settings would still include this.

Of course. Not only this, but where are we most likely to detect CV transmission? If you have a case in a household, you test that household, or further low or no symptom cases are easier to spot. If you spread it down the pub, to a load of unknowns, chances are that these cases will not be detected. So the data picks up lots of household transmission rather than transmission in other settings. Test and trace is hard, and we aren’t doing it properly yet.

The danger is that you then use that data as ‘proof’ that transmission outside households is much less likely.

The danger is that you then use that data as ‘proof’ that transmission outside households is much less likely.

And the BBC 10 o’clock news used that ‘data’ (they didn’t actually refer to any data) to suggest exactly that.

Test and trace is hard, and we aren’t doing it properly yet.

Serco are doing a bang up job… (yeah, right).

And where’s that contact tracing app…?

And don’t forget the “isolate” part of track/trace/isolate, and the legislation needed to strengthen employee protection for those told to isolate (hmm) and financial help for companies losing staff who have been told to isolate (oh) and plans and resources to keep teaching kids away from school buildings when the tracing leads to them (ahh)…

Edukator is in SW France so the actions of Cummings’ govt are irrelevant

You think people aren’t doing exactly the same here in the UK?

we know people are re Spanish holidays etc

And that’s a good example of what I’m talking about. As you’ll know I went on a spanish holiday, I would have much rather stayed at home and happily would have cancelled, but the actions of the goverrnment in removing the travel restrictions and encouraging me to go left me having to decide to go or write off £1100 that I couldn’t afford to lose. The vast majority of people in that situattion would go on holiday purely to avoid the financial loss. That’s a direct result of the the leadership and decisions made by government. I don’t need Boris to tell me to keep my hand out of the fire, but if doing so comes with a significant financial penalty then I might decide against it, and in this case I decided the risk was acceptable in order not to lose the money.

Not what was being asked about though, was it Dazh.

Well, what about the opposite? Could it be true that because we have been locked down our immune systems are suppressed in someway by the lack of exposure to others, and potentially resurfacing at the beginning of winter means we are more susceptible to seasonal illness?

Imagine you looking at it negatively? Who would have thought it?.

There’s plenty evidence of how seasonal stuff is transmitted, I’ve never seen anything other than old wives tales regarding immune system weakening by staying in the house, have you?.

No I was just applying common sense based on the fact that any lockdown household might be avoiding daily exposure.  I mean, I haven’t been ill since February…

Which proves my point, thanks.

Did you get ill in February because you didn’t wear a vest?

😂

As you brought it up…

write off £1100 that I couldn’t afford to lose

In what way was the money not ‘gone’ either way?

I’d have done the same as Dazh in his situation, I think. Glad we decided at the start of the year not to book anything. A booked and paid single destination holiday… when it’s do it or lose it? I think we’d have gone for that, rather than see nothing for the money.

Now, driving around Europe, staying in people’s homes… would have avoided that. We cancelled visiting people in Leeds, Manchester, the Highlands, Brittany… for obvious reasons. Not stepped inside someone else’s home since February. Still not seen any of the kids’ grandparents this year. Apart from on zoom. Was hoping to do so this month… but I thought we’d have driven infection rates right down by now, locally, nationally, and across Europe. They’re rising though (locally especially).

I would have much rather stayed at home and happily would have cancelled, but the actions of the goverrnment in removing the travel restrictions and encouraging me to go left me having to decide to go or write off £1100 that I couldn’t afford to lose. The vast majority of people in that situattion would go on holiday purely to avoid the financial loss

Relatives had waited to the very last minute hoping that the travel restrictions would come back in to force, they didn’t want to go and the stories of cases rising in Europe made them scared of being trapped there and question what kind of holiday experience they would get anyway .So they bailed and have lost £4000.

If only the public had been told at the very start, go get all your Covid information, updates and news from a mountain bike forum, they could have then avoided the complete communication malfunction that was Gov.UK . But hey, all those months of restrictions (not lockdown) are really going to pay off now as we head for Winter.

In what way was the money not ‘gone’ either way?

If you buy something off the internet and it wasn’t delivered would you write it off because the money is already ‘gone’, or would you expect a refund and chase the seller if they didn’t provide one?

Well, what about the opposite? Could it be true that because we have been locked down our immune systems are suppressed in someway by the lack of exposure to others, and potentially resurfacing at the beginning of winter means we are more susceptible to seasonal illness?

Imagine you looking at it negatively? Who would have thought it?.

There’s plenty evidence of how seasonal stuff is transmitted, I’ve never seen anything other than old wives tales regarding immune system weakening by staying in the house, have you?

If we stay indoors most of the summer then (assuming medical science is correct) this could be a factor preventing us from getting enough vitamin D. I’ll be following my own advice based upon that: Spend more time in the garden/outdoors. Use sunscreen. Maintain social distance. Keep exercising. Being isolated indoors will usually decrease exposure to pathogens etc, but when we re-enter the fray we assumedly want our body to be in best-form for dealing with what may come? Happy as ever to be called an ‘old wife’ if someone has more reliable info (Just to be clear – I don’t know anything about lack of exposure to other people/pathogens/viruses etc vs immune-system health. Just talking about Vit D here.

This research indicates that vitamin D is involved in the activation of the T cells of the immune system. It is important to note that this is a laboratory study, and it is useful in helping researchers to understand what happens in specific immune system cells when exposed to foreign entities such as bacteria or viruses. It does not tell us how variations in vitamin D levels might affect people’s susceptibility to infection, or what the ideal level of vitamin D is for supporting immune system responses to infection.

Other studies will no doubt look into these questions. However, as with other vitamins, it is clearly important to have sufficient vitamin D to maintain a healthy body. Vitamin D forms in our skin in response to sunlight, but care should still be taken to avoid burning or over-exposure. Vitamin D is also found in foods such as oily fish, eggs, fortified margarines, some breakfast cereals and vitamin supplements.

https://www.nhs.uk/news/lifestyle-and-exercise/vitamin-d-immune-system-boost/

Well this looks like an achingly familiar scenario we’ve seen god knows how many times.

1. A private company is given a multi-billion pound contract to deliver a service

2. The private company completely fails to deliver said service

3. The public sector steps in to bail them out to produce something that actually works

4. Repeat…

So the Track and Trace system set up by Serco on behalf of the government appears not to be so ‘world-beating’ after all. Well, who’d have thunk it?

Local authority sets up test-and-trace system to plug gaps in English scheme

How many times does this sorry saga have to be repeated? All the results from all over the world showed that track and trace systems should be localised and in the hands of regional health authorities. So what do they do instead? Hand it to a private company, with an appalling track record on delivery, to set up a centralised system with no regional systems in place

Genius!

How many times does this sorry saga have to be repeated?

You’re looking at it the wrong way – the crisis is proving to be an excellent opportunity to siphon off public money into the pockets of the Tories’ pals. It’s so far been a fantastic success.

How many times does this sorry saga have to be repeated? All the results from all over the world showed that track and trace systems should be localised and in the hands of regional health authorities. So what do they do instead? Hand it to a private company, with an appalling track record on delivery, to set up a centralised system with no regional systems in place

Genius!

Public apathy/entitlement and disengagement from politics in general allows the **** to do what they want. They Got Brexit Done. All the rest is gravy.

Met some 30 yr old MTBer the other day who was disappointed with his vote for this Gov. He says he did it (and voted Leave) to ‘get Britain away from politics’. You can’t make this stuff up.