News in the Sandwich family is not good. My mother-in-law a sound woman of 93 sharp as a tack has gone down with COVID. We're all braced for the worst as she's not doing well though not on a ventilator yet (unlikely as the hospital have said that they will not aggressively treat her).
She has been part of my life longer than my own mother and we're all heartbroken. Herself is off to Ulster on Friday if there's a flight for a day trip to say goodbye from us all. 2020 can get to ****.
Anecdote time: all Londoners I know (friends and family) think that it is over down there, and are heading out of London to be with (elderly) parents over Christmas.
Anecdote time: I live in London and will not be travelling to my parents for Christmas, it’s just not worth the risk (only seen them for 2 hours outside since March).
Some people are respecting social distancing, some aren’t. Most do wear masks on public transport/trains and most do in shops though I try to avoid both, it’s probably no different from a lot of other parts of the country though for such a big conurbation the case rates per 100k have been lower than you would expect and nowhere near the 5-600 seen in other areas particularly in the North. (Currently my borough is at 117).
I’m glad we are moving into tier 3 now instead of waiting until January, that decision will save lives.
Sorry to hear that Sandwich, wishing your MIL all the best.
all Londoners I know (friends and family) think that it is over down there, and are heading out of London
Maybe you should tell them to watch the local news! Or send them this: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-tier-3-warning-coronavirus-cases-rising-b228912.html.
oh Sandwich mate I'm sorry.
I was going to respond to some of the other posts above, but it seems crass now. I think that's the point isn't it - it's all very well talking about statistics, and needing to balance the risk to the elderly with economic damage..... but when it comes down to it, it's peoples mums, dads, husbands, wives, sisters and brothers. And what would you do to protect them individually, vs what would we be prepared to do to protect them collectively.
I hope Mrs S can get a flight ok
Just heard from a lady friend of mine, just got out of hospital having been admitted with breathing difficulties. She's 35, and in otherwise good health. I've only heard of 3 of my pals having covid so far. 1 took best part of 4 months to recover properly, this one has been in hospital..
I thought this virus didn't badly affect the under 50s??
Sorry to hear above people's bad news.
Can anyone help me on rules. Kid teapot 2's classmate has tested positive so kid teapot has to isolate starting tomorrow. He is normally in a bubble with another kid in his class. Can we carry on in that bubble or not?
I’m glad we are moving into tier 3 now instead of waiting until January, that decision will save lives.
When was that announced?
I thought this virus didn’t badly affect the under 50s??
Who said that?
Sorry to hear that Sandwich.
When was that announced?
Apologies. I should have checked what I heard in conversation with somebody earlier today. Appears London is on watch, I hope they make the right decision early not dither and delay.
Can we carry on in that bubble or not?
The rules might be vague, but it’s called “isolate “ for a reason. If one of your bubble has it and the other doesn’t you risk contagion by meeting up. Please don’t.
I hope they make the right decision early not dither and delay.
I agree.
The rules might be vague, but it’s called “isolate “ for a reason.
What we got told wasn't particularly vague... we were told he mustn't leave the house AT ALL unless he develops symptoms but everyone else can carry on as normal unless they develop symptoms.
We were informed in the letter this was from PHE but of course they may be lying?
So his mother can continue to teach at another school, if he had siblings they can continue etc. but we could't get him tested legally, even if we pay as he can't leave the house.
I'm starting to question the letter as so far as I can see no legal action has been taken against parents kids who went and got a test and the next letter mentioned "more than zero" of these tested kids was positive and asymptomatic so if this letter was accurate surely they acted illegally in getting a test but nothing appears to have happened other than them then shutting down another year?
Plenty of parents get kids tested, but a negative test does not mean you don't have it, or that it that ends isolation.
And isolation is meant to mean isolation from everyone else - pretty impossible for most families and especially kids, but basically own room except for bathroom visits.
Yeah, I know no one actually does that and most simply can't.
I too have two of those letters for my girls - it's clear in the letter that the self isolation is for the child only. Makes some sense, otherwise one case would take out a hundred people e.g. class of 30 takes out 30 families.
If incidence was low and we had good track, test and trace it might make sense to isolate contacts of contacts but without out this is where we are.
I thought this virus didn’t badly affect the under 50s?
In terms of being symptomatic at the time the numbers are typically lower and the symptoms typically milder the younger you are I think. Longer term symptoms are at around 10% of those symptomatic last I heard. I haven't heard much said about 'long covid' recently but I'll be honest - it's these effects that I'm most scared of. I'm otherwise generally very healthy in my later 40s, live in an area of otherwise low prevalence, and I'm aware I'm a bit irrational about it. 🙄
It certainly doesn't kill many under 50s but there are a lot more ill people than dead ones.
Juniors secondary now closed, albeit having online classes until the 18th. I’ve got to admit it’s quite impressive, teachers on the computer I suppose with 30 kids on the screen in front of him, full days / normal lessons scheduled.
Well done them. My lad went back to onsite learning today, as his group have finished their isolation. The mixed learning didn't go that well... including a teacher just cancelling the feed to home learners because they couldn't work out how to unmute themselves. The whole class being at home is more likely to be made to work... I feel, Kryton.
I too have two of those letters for my girls – it’s clear in the letter that the self isolation is for the child only. Makes some sense, otherwise one case would take out a hundred people e.g. class of 30 takes out 30 families.
If incidence was low and we had good track, test and trace it might make sense to isolate contacts of contacts but without out this is where we are.
That would depend why they are being told to self isolate wouldn't it?
If they wanted to stop the spread of the virus then they would take out 100
As it is the siblings go into school and spread before showing symptoms. In our case OH goes into a primary school... if he'd had the virus she'd have been shedding before potentially having symptoms. Jnr can't get tested as he had no symptoms... so 2 weeks later he's back, no idea if he had it or not or any of the other kids.
In many ways no way any further than March when one of his friends mothers had something with all the symptoms...
I think that’s the point isn’t it – it’s all very well talking about statistics, and needing to balance the risk to the elderly with economic damage….. but when it comes down to it, it’s peoples mums, dads, husbands, wives, sisters and brothers.
I hate to go on especially when others have news like sandwich, but it's not statistics. I'm pro science; pro lockdown; I get it and agree. But lockdown doesn't damage the balance sheet on an academic level, it damages livelihoods, increases poverty, and will cost lives just as Covid does. But it won't be the elderly disproportionately, it'll be the poor, the disadvantaged, mentally ill, inner city kids.....etc.
We can all relate to the risk to our Mums or Grannies. If as a (generally) middle class middle aged forum we just view the others as 'statistics' we're missing the point, bigly.
Don't think anyone is missing the point here with maybe a few exceptions.
Ignore it, let it rip, whatever = NHS overwhelmed, your not able to treat a even a fraction of covid cases and you lose everyone having heart attacks and gaming down the stairs too.
Lockdown completely = treat everyone normally using the NHS for at least a while, but economy crashes big style, country collapses, followed by NHS and everything else in the end, massive fallout right across society
Try and tread a middle path = pretty much what we're trying to do, though the way the government keep ****ing things up we're likely experiencing a higher death toll at a higher cost than would be otherwise resulting from competent governance. But hey - as the saying goes 'they voted for it'.
Well there's a thing - London surge is mostly in Secondary schools, thats'll be why we are seeing some of them are moving online next week albeit thats the schools choice, why doesn't this chaotic government mandate it where possible as is happening in Wales?. Adult cases are flat so maybe that mitigates Tier 3 in London.
So what about this:
Kay Burley agrees to be off air for six months after COVID-19 breach
A small number of Sky News staff attended a social event in London on Saturday evening during which COVID-19 guidelines were breached.
As a result of an internal review Sky News presenter Kay Burley has agreed to be off air for six months, and political editor Beth Rigby and correspondent Inzamam Rashid have agreed to be off air for three months.
Three people who've talked about not much more than COVID for a year and have criticised Cumminga activities vehemently go on a rule breaking bender. FFS!
Is it just me or are cases going up again? Todays cases and deaths are both nearly 25% up on the same day last week....overall trend of cases seems to be upwards rather than downwards for the past week
Its different parts of the country causing it.
In the North its by far decreasing, Kirklees as an example has dropped loads and still is.
South Wales and the South like London, Kent, Essex way are increasing quite a lot.
Get that lot into T3, T2 obviously doesn't cut the mustard or they're too used to T1 from before that everyone's still mixing it up.
I think that news about vaccines is changing people's behaviour. It's clearly wonderful news but it's going to take a very long time to get everyone that is vulnerable vaccinated. The Govt must do more in educating people, it's not over yet, not by a very long way.
Add to that the Govt sponsored Xmas Covid spreading pantomime that's about to happen and it's looking like a very strong lockdown is going to have to be implemented in January, probably until March.
Well there’s a thing – London surge is mostly in Secondary schools, thats’ll be why we are seeing some of them are moving online next week albeit thats the schools choice, why doesn’t this chaotic government mandate it where possible as is happening in Wales?. Adult cases are flat so maybe that mitigates Tier 3 in London.
This was also the case for parts of the North wasn't it?
Now, having lived in London and as someone who considers themselves a Londoner - **** London and **** the excuses - it should be in Tier 3.
Our Covid man, Véran, pointed out that cases are going up pretty much everywhere in the world and that the lifting of restrictions on 15/12 will be much more limited than hoped. He noted an east west divide. The cold damp east is harder hit than the milder west.
This is useful when you zoom in to your local area
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map
I think Xmas shopping is also causing increased transmission. Colleagues in London are reporting that the tube is getting busier.
So.. our local heads up here have been asking for tests for months now... but hey...
I'm genuinely fearful of what January is going to bring, double whammy of increasing covid infections and the almost inevitable no deal brexit
There will be no need to close the shops when all the shelves are empty.
Anecdote time: all Londoners I know (friends and family) think that it is over down there, and are heading out of London to be with (elderly) parents over Christmas.
Anecdote time: I live in Lewisham (SE London) and everyone I know myself included is staying put, not seeing their families or house mixing with friends over xmas. London is like everywhere else some wear masks some don't. Despite what the DailyMail says most the time tubes, busses are empty and the majority of the city is working from home.
I think what Hancock said that the rise in our area was due to school so its hardly like everyones out getting hammered and licking lamp posts.
If what you say is true and everyones leaving london to see their family the sensible thing to do would be travel bans for the city over xmas and stop everyone being super spreaders.
London to go into Tier 3 from the 19th. FFS, for all of 4 days then, after the schools finish and before the Christmas amnesty. Feels like an empty gesture, although I suppose it’ll continue into Jan.
Anecdote time: I live in Lewisham (SE London) and everyone I know myself included is staying put, not seeing their families or house mixing with friends over xmas. London is like everywhere else some wear masks some don’t. Despite what the DailyMail says most the time tubes, busses are empty and the majority of the city is working from home.
I found the most pubs flouting the lockdown rules in London back in June. It wasn't hard at all to spot beer gardens in use before they were actually allowed to be used.
I found the most pubs flouting the lockdown rules in London back in June. It wasn’t hard at all to spot beer gardens in use before they were actually allowed to be used.
You say that like it wasn't happening all over the country. No one has been golden during this pandemic.
This was also the case for parts of the North wasn’t it?
Not really, secondary schools have contributed definitely but much of the transmission and highest case rates have been and still are (although finally reducing) in specific wards in specific boroughs, and inter household transmission has been blamed.
the sensible thing to do would be travel bans for the city over xmas and stop everyone being super spreaders
Not just for the city.
So.. our local heads up here have been asking for tests for months now… but hey…
Yes, but that was in some Northern Shithole, not the South East Heartlands, am I right?
I get the vaccine tomorrow, Pfizer one too.
I don't think I'm most deserving or in need, but I don't decide who gets it and I'm not turning it down. I think plenty will tho' from talking to colleagues.
You say that like it wasn’t happening all over the country. No one has been golden during this pandemic.
Sure, but walking though Maida Vale I could have pretty much got tanked up and chatted to loads of people outside at every place I walked past.
I’ve heard a rumour (totally unsubstantiated) that Wales could be having a lot stricter restrictions imposed today, so it will be interesting to hear what the first minister says in his briefing today.
I’m hoping they do something, the news says a lot of schools are closing, though we haven’t heard anything from our school.
Ferrels, it was in the news yesterday that all Welsh schools were closing from Monday?
Closing schools seems like an easy decision but it's already been proven that children from the poorest backgrounds are the ones that suffer most. Imagine 4 children in a small house sharing a tablet or phone trying to do their online classes on the dining table. It's a bit grim.
There is no easy answer to this that doesn't cause even more problems in the long term for that demographic. Parts of the valleys are very deprived, they suffer from poverty, poor education, poor health, lack of opportunities, crap transport infrastructure. Add to that an attitude that life is pretty shit and can't get much worse, it becomes self destructive and a giant Covid-19 spreading lab.
I've got no idea how to solve a problem like that. Blaming people with shit lives for acting irresponsibly, like Drakeford insinuated, isn't helpful. The people need guidance, education and support.
@Kryton57 - has it been officially announced that London is going into T3 next week? I've not seen that even though it's looking very much like it's needed.
We (Calderdale) were supposed to go into T3 just before the national Lockdown but then the Govt changed their mind and left us in T2. I've no doubt that the extra 3-4 days of pubs being open caused more transmission.
Add to that the Govt sponsored Xmas Covid spreading pantomime
The message many people will hear is quite simple. Lockdown isn't needed.
Closing schools seems like an easy decision but it’s already been proven that children from the poorest backgrounds are the ones that suffer most. Imagine 4 children in a small house sharing a tablet or phone trying to do their online classes on the dining table. It’s a bit grim.
Imagine them going to their grandparents funeral, especially if that grandparent was their only carer before they are taken into care. Of course you want to define "suffer" in your own way. The tens of thousands of kids for whom going to school makes them vomit every morning bnefore they need to be physically dragged into school/prison presumably aren't "suffering", it's for their own good.
@Kryton57 – has it been officially announced that London is going into T3 next week? I’ve not seen that even though it’s looking very much like it’s needed.
No its not official, although pretty much every media outlet is saying it'll be announced on Wednesday and is a foregone conclusion.
Khan is fighting it stating it'll be a distaster for London business (isn't it so everywhere...) and we know how Boris likes to keep London open, so I'm half expecting the data announced yesterday - that adult cases were flat and the exponential rise is secondary school kids - to be a mitigation to stay in Tier 2. After all, the kids are on hols now, schools are moving to online for the final week of their own accord, and hospital admissions for the age group are much lower than others.
Thanks.
As we've found out up here, there doesn't seem to be a way out of T3. The Govt have updated their approach publicly stating they make decisions based on case numbers, transmission rates, hospital capacity etc. What they've not done though is clearly state what the metrics are to satisfy these "tests". If they were transparent about this it might increase public confidence.
Cases, admissions and likely deaths in London have stubbornly refused to turn over after lockdown. The most likely reason being that Tiers have different magnitude of effect in different regions. London being hyper mobile. When schools close, matter may improve slightly. Of course people are tired of lockdown and the effects are not as profound as the spring. The South East and East of England have a similar response.
On the vaccine news, GSK/Sanofi spike protein vaccine will be delayed. Dose ranging showed a reduced response in older adults so a dose ranging study with a bigger dose is being tested. There are other spike protein vaccines coming too. We shall see how those pan out.
Thing about it spiking amongst school age kids is that almost all, as in 99.9% of them will live with older people and spread it to them, its not like Uni students who can be trapped in halls.
It's interesting that the rise in London, where it seems to have been ground zero, is being replicated in other countries too, e.g. Eastern France.
Does anyone have an explanation for this other than "mental fatigue"?
Thing about it spiking amongst school age kids is that almost all, as in 99.9% of them will live with older people and spread it to them, its not like Uni students who can be trapped in halls.
The thing is a very high proportion will also be asymptomatic.
They will take it home and spread to parents, carers and siblings who will then take it out before they develop symptoms (if they ever do - especially the siblings).
Kids being kids and personally unlikely to be ill will not take the same precautions anyway.
It's hardly rocket science is it?
Does anyone have an explanation for this other than “mental fatigue”?
Well it is winter and the weather is shitty so people will tend to congregate indoors.
Combining that with the mental fatigue leads to people congregating indoors with mental fatigue.
@stevextc - I get that but my point is that the so-called origin of the virus within a country is now the hot-spot again with rapidly rising cases. I'm intrigued as to why this seems to be happening or if it's randomness. There must be something else going on other than we're all fed up of it so let our guard down.
The virus seemed to fan out from London like a wave. In France it did the same thing but not from Paris, it was mainly from the East. Is there any known medical reason for this strange phenomena ?
To use the wave analogy it's like the tide came in, went out, stayed out for a while but then it was suddenly high tide again but without it rising.
Well, my uneducated guess is that in the first wave the east of France was the ski resorts, and London just saw the biggest number of returning skiers who then got on public transport and into work.
Thing about it spiking amongst school age kids is that almost all, as in 99.9% of them will live with older people and spread it to them,
I'm not so worried about the kids giving it to me - despite being overweight and over 50. It's the multi generational households that are the biggest risk, with older more vulnerable grandparents.
Obviously, allowing your kids to mix with grandparents who are not part of your household is the bit people need to be reconsidering if they can.
The virus seemed to fan out from London like a wave. In France it did the same thing but not from Paris, it was mainly from the East. Is there any known medical reason for this strange phenomena ?
To use the wave analogy it’s like the tide came in, went out, stayed out for a while but then it was suddenly high tide again but without it rising.
I'm not sure that's strange for a virus.
More specifically for a virus with high asymptomatic or very mild symptoms that take a week to develop if they do at all and fairly high transmissibility.
I'd really from a general/layman POV really expect this. Indeed if I was asking the questions (as say Matt Hancock) I'd start off wanting to know why that WASN'T the case.
@Kryton57 - Yes, comps closing from Monday (some are already closed). Primaries seems a mixed picture. We had already decided to not send our child next week but when I asked her teacher what they were planning, they weren't 100% themselves. Hardly surprising though given the speed at which things are changing. I've been pretty supportive of the WG approach but I think they've messed up since the end of the firebreak.
Obviously, allowing your kids to mix with grandparents who are not part of your household is the bit people need to be reconsidering if they can.
A bit late for the dead grandparents who were forced to send their grandkids into school with threats of fines and having the kids taken into care don't you think? We already lost 2 in a local school.
Why are certain scientists and a lot of politicians saying that things are going to be 'normal' by spring?
This in my tiny brain is not the case. We should still be washing hands, wearing masks and social distancing for months and months to come. The vaccine won't magically whisk this virus off into the ether.
As for the question of the elderly. I've witnessed many completely self isolating, having family to drop off out side the provisions they need. Then the other type (some are relatives) bending the rules to suit themselves and always making excuses as to why they haven't complied. But what can one do.
We're in tier 3 because the local hospital is under immense pressure, beds are full and from what some friends say who work there, it is not covid free. I'm sure this is the case for many other places.
I get that but my point is that the so-called origin of the virus within a country is now the hot-spot again with rapidly rising cases. I’m intrigued as to why this seems to be happening or if it’s randomness.
The pattern is very familiar to us up here in Yorkshire/Lancashire, I imagine. Casting minds back to July/August, the virus was well suppressed in many parts of the country, but still grumbling along in poorer areas in Bradford, Blackburn, Burnley etc. You could actually see it suddenly picking up there, then starting to fan out into Leeds, Keighley, and eventually to us in Craven. The various restrictions didn't seem to interrupt this mechanic.
Down south, things were better suppressed in July/August, and it has taken longer for it to re-seed itself around your poorer areas - the Medway towns and parts of south Essex such as Basildon. However, as soon as it starts picking up there, you get the inevitable fan-out into East London, then the rest of London, and now as far as Brighton. The South East is simply experiencing exactly the same move towards peak we did in August/September.
You'd think Lockdown mkII would at least put the brakes on it a bit, but it's quite likely observance has been poor in the seed areas, which is what matters, and schools continuing mean that it just hasn't worked as well as last time.
Christmas is coming at exactly the wrong time for the growth curve down there, and I fear that January/February are not going to be pretty, especially with a symbolic (at this point) vaccine launch causing additional complacency.
Please consider before slamming the schools, that they are under immense pressure from parents and the government,both pulling in opposite directions a lot of the time. They are being told to run both online and in person lessons whilst constantly contingency planning and dealing with complaining parents.
This is on top of their normal workload that they've been overworked and underpaid for for years.
Oh yeah, and they also feel responsible for the kids who would do better not being home too much. Not every family is that great.
I feel like we're in a worse position now than we were in March when it all began 🙁
@rollindoughnut - completely agree it seems the actual teachers are doing a great job, but they are in an impossible situation and the government (whether local, devolved or national) don't seem to be able to come up with consistent plans to support them and their students.
Jnr is back out of isolation and back in school just in time to get the virus for XMAS.
Same here. Hence grandparents will only see us on Zoom (as has been the case since February). Anyone taking their kids, especially school age teens, to see grandparents for Christmas need their heads looking at. I may be being too harsh there, I know the government messaging is "mixed"... but we have all had the best part of the year to understand what we're dealing with here.
Please consider before slamming the schools
Indeed. Schools are doing what they are told, without getting the support they were promised (at least up here, you may get more support if you're down South).
Nope no support down here in Kent. Schools relying on social media it seems to find out government objectives.
Schools relying on social media to find out government objectives.
This is a campaigning government, not a governing one. We're paying the price.
Hancock told schools on Tuesday that if they wanted to they could make the last day of term (here that's next Friday) a non-pupil day. That's nothing like giving people notice of things is there?
I may be reaching but re the comments about fanning out around Essex, Kent and London, aren't Bluewater and Lakeside ideally situated for the pattern?
Bluewater, Lakeside, Christmas shopping, ending lockdown, people congregate and virus spreads from the east...?
Meanwhile… Eton boys are heading home early.
Why are certain scientists and a lot of politicians saying that things are going to be ‘normal’ by spring?
That probably comes down to prioritising consumerism over reality - it's all going to be fine and if it's not it's that nasty other thing with that lot over there not respecting our sovereignty. Spring is the new Autumn which was the new Summer after Wave One. There might also be something to do with short-termism being endemic in the way we approach things at the moment. Everything is just in time, luckily that was when vaccine has turned up.
I am wondering how the rest of the world views the UK arriving at the front of the vaccine delivery queue in a similar style to when Boris flattened that poor kid 'playing' rugby.
For me normal or less constraints has to be at least one vaccination cycle away - things aren't going to be back to normal soon if we have to drop onto another round of protect the vulnerable (again). The scientific advisors seem a lot more grounded and measured. Unfortunately No10 seems to favour jingoistic bollocks over practical reality. I'm still amazed Boris is still going for run around being the best approach to Christmas. Feels a bit like part of loosening the restrictions is so the MPs aren't getting harangued for breaking then. No rules for anyone means there aren't different rules for some; the legacy of Mr Cummings goes to Barney.
Why are certain scientists and a lot of politicians saying that things are going to be ‘normal’ by spring?
They won't. It is irresponsible to raise expectations based on limited (i.e., "World-class") vaccine roll-out promises. 2H21 we MAY be going on foreign holidays. International conferences next year will be virtual again. I'm pretty sure of that.
Normality will be 2H21 to 1Q2022. Sorry if that is harsh, but better to be honest.
2022? Nah, I'm out.
Thought my reply was more diplomatic AA 😂
Good on you teachers.
My wife sat across the table from me this morning at 6am, eating a piece of toast whilst continuing with her marking. "All the staff are so tired", she said. "I know we always are by the end of term, but this is so much more".
And don't get me started on the variety and severity of children's mental health issues she's had to deal with this year. We're talking front line first responder stuff.
So yes it does grate to hear all the moaning about schools.
Anyone taking their kids, especially school age teens, to see grandparents for Christmas need their heads looking at. I may be being too harsh there
The point I was trying to make before the knee jerk kicked in. You weren't being too harsh, you were being realistic.
I feel like we’re in a worse position now than we were in March when it all began
We really aren't. Back in March there was no guarantee of any vaccine, no therapeutics for treatment of severe disease, and only non-pharmaceutical intervention options for control. Now we have at least one approved vaccine, more than one approved treatment, better management, and a realistic expectation of return to eventual normality. Don't be sold on political promises. The science has been clear, the timescale has been clear but unpalatable (to politicians), and the outcome is looking more assured.
Think of it has the end of the third innings of a test series. The fourth innings will be global implementation.
Think of it has the end of the third innings of a test series. The fourth innings will be global implementation
I've always hated cricket.
I’ve always hated cricket.
Me too, let's hope this disnae end in a draw.