Sweden (& Brazil) are following a “Herd Immunity” approach

Every nation in the world is following a herd immunity approach. The only difference is how they’re slowing down the number of casualties so the hospitals can cope. Sweden are adopting a voluntary approach, everywhere else is making more formal restrictions. Of course if the news today is true China now have less restrictions than Sweden and a population with no resistance.

No it wasn’t the plans have always been available to view, they also made it clear in media reports. They wanted to control the spread the best they could then when numbers start to rise perform a lockdown that would be reviewed weekly. This has been discussed about 120 pages back.

+1

China may well have everything under control now but equally we need to be careful at taking what they say at face value

…and if it’s true they no longer have restrictions what happens the first time a jet load of people from New York or Lombardy turns up? The virus will kick off again. I suspect there *are* restrictions and our press aren’t properly reporting them. That was certainly the case last week when we were told the lock down was over in China – and then on the same day a reporter was saying they were allowed out for 2 hours a day to go shopping.

I’d hope that pubs were one of the last priorities.

What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂

vaccine may be years away so herd immunity might be the only solution

A vaccine is just a (really really good) way to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity is still the end goal.

Really good article here about scientific advice recived by government from SAGE

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci/special-report-johnson-listened-to-his-scientists-about-coronavirus-but-they-were-slow-to-sound-the-alarm-idUKKBN21P1X8

but it very curiosly omits to mention the 3rd group that feeds into SAGE- SPI-B the behavioural scientists

https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/scientific-advisory-group-for-emergencies-sage-coronavirus-covid-19-response

SAGE relies on external science advice and on advice from expert groups. During COVID-19 this includes the:

New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG)
Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) (Department for Health and Social Care)
Independent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (SPI-B)
These groups consider the scientific evidence and feed in their consensus conclusions to SAGE.

also Fergusson was on C4 saying 400,000 could die in mid feb

(sorry Daily Fail link)

https://t.co/fkva1eSZeD?amp=1

What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂

Should be fine provided you are simultaneously exercising and purchasing groceries.

Ahhhh, the pub…..

We walk past our local on our daily excercise.
I give it a little pat and tell it Daddy will be back soon….

4 litres that’s pretty normal for an ICU

4 l/min ?

Yeah 4 litres a minute.

A vaccine is just a (really really good) way to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity is still the end goal.

we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?

I know we can get to a reasonable level of protetcing the vulnerabe with annual vaccination b4 flu season, but 1000s an still die

If we get CV19 deaths down to 17,000 per year (same as flu) we might take that as an acceptable compromise.

I guess there would be a fair amount of overlap too. It wouldn’t be 17,000 additional deaths.

My statistics is far from strong. I have been wondering about mass testing and have a feeling for the problems that might result from a large number of false positives and (likely worse?) false negatives. What sort of accuracy is required for a good standard, or useful standard of test?

If ‘natural’ herd immunity is the solution then what’s the problem? Or to put it another way, if it’s the means then what’s the end? If the end is to stop people getting infected and dying how is a means that requires people to get infected and die appropriate? Burn the village to save the village?

Mass vaccination is a means to the end of eradicating and/or preventing an epidemic/pandemic. Herd immunity is just a conceptual middle man in that context. It’s not the end goal.

we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?

Corona mutates about 10 times slower than flu (from the last thing I read on it).

The annual “freshers flu” every october at universities gives an idea about how good herd immunity is at protecting you from your local flu/cold, and how bad it is at protecting unvaccinated healthy 18 y/os from the assymtomatic carriers bringing their local flu from all around the country.

How the far slower mutation affects this model in terms of timescales and distance is a question for the modelling experts.

If ‘natural’ herd immunity is the solution then what’s the problem? Or to put it another way, if it’s the means then what’s the end? If the end is to stop people getting infected and dying how is a means that requires people to get infected and die appropriate? Burn the village to save the village?

You haven’t been paying attention. You need to keep the level of infection below that which the health services can cope with. This reduces the number of unnecessary fatalities. Also isolate those most vulnerable until a vaccine is found.

There is no herd immunity.

The lock downs are in place to slow down the numbers of people going to the hospital at the same time and dying if they can’t be treated.

Another way of looking at that is a death calculus. You need to achieve enough deaths from the non-vulnerable to prevent the vulnerable dying.

Herd immunity takes care of itself. The strategy is a managed rate of infection.

Exactly. You could let a 100,000 people all need hospital assistance to have a chance of getting though it in a week or you could have 5,000 people over 20 weeks. The 5,000 is clearly going to be a lot more manageable than the 100,00…

I guess that at present there are just too many unknowns, one of which is whether a vaccine is even possible (which haven’t managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when ‘end of the world’ type pandemics are discussed). There was even some debate recently as to whether catching & surviving the virus gave you immunity – there were reportedly a couple of cases in China that had been given the all clear following positive tests who had seemingly gone on to re-acquire the virus (again probably too many unknowns); I haven’t heard it discussed again so perhaps immunity has been confirmed.

As to natural herd immunity I guess that depends on the cost in lives; Sweden seems to be assuming that the mortality rate would be ‘acceptable’ (pretty tough to define ‘acceptable’ if you lose someone close to you) but this may backfire.

Look a puppy !!!!!!

which haven’t managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when ‘end of the world’ type pandemics are discussed

And as pointed out it’s because there’s no point for something that gives you the sniffles.

haven’t managed it for the common cold

Which common cold?

I thought there was >200 viruses that caused it.

I’m afraid that I’m also rapidly becoming a cynical old git and even got to the point of wondering whether it wasn’t all stage managed to boost his popularity and cover over the balls up (admitted to hospital “as a precaution”, admitted to ICU “as a precaution” & and I’m sure I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in “good spirits” which isn’t the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU).

no 10 crisis message management is bizarre, I don’t want to know his 02 sats or his bp but I still get the feeling we’re are going be seeing this….

which haven’t managed it for the common cold, which is often pointed out when ‘end of the world’ type pandemics are discussed

And as pointed out it’s because there’s no point for something that gives you the sniffles.

Fair enough, I’m well outside my areas of expertise (if I even have any) so are you saying that a vaccine for the common cold is achievable? I’d have thought that there’d be enough work hours lost to it for development cost to be financially viable.

— Edit —

Which common cold?

I thought there was >200 viruses that caused it.

I didn’t know that (quite an interesting New Scientist article here).

Out of interest, what exactly is a ‘strain’ is it a distinctly separate virus or something that’s come about through mutation?

If we get CV19 deaths down to 17,000 per year (same as flu) we might take that as an acceptable compromise.

It’s not as simple as that – what happens if the death rate matches but the number of people who don’t make full recovery is far far greater or the length of time people are ill for is greater.

Do we also really want to put people through the trauma of it? Flu doesn’t wipe out our medical key workers at the same rate. I’m not convinced we want to pay the price in key workers to achieve flu level deaths.

so are you saying that a vaccine for the common cold is achievable?

We don’t need one.Your body is so good at fighting the variants of the common cold virus that you response to them is v light, and the side effects (head ache, runny nose etc etc) are better treated with other (read cheaper and already existing) drugs.

What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂

What about Pub rides?..

Do we also really want to put people through the trauma of it? Flu doesn’t wipe out our medical key workers at the same rate. I’m not convinced we want to pay the price in key workers to achieve flu level deaths.

We may not want to. We may have little choice. We are still hoping for a vaccine. We may have to maintain higher ITU levels. But we also know that the current situation is untenable in the long term.

We will eventually have either a vaccine or passive vaccination (administered antibodies). These will surely be first administed to those most at risk and those most likely to spread infection. After that wider application. We want to start trials of the antibody I am working on within months. Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working!

we havent been able to achieve herd immunity from flu, will we be able to from this?

I know we can get to a reasonable level of protetcing the vulnerabe with annual vaccination b4 flu season, but 1000s an still die

People still die of mumps but we have herd immunity to that.

Can I suggest that all the people asking facile questions about herd immunity check out the Operation Ouch episode on this topic. I watched it before Christmas with my daughter, it will clear up a lot of the misunderstandings and bring you all up to the same level as my kids.

I think this is the one or might at least take you to it:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/50000690

What about walking a dog to the pub. 😂

Only if you have a freight or medical exemption

We will eventually have either a vaccine or passive vaccination (administered antibodies). These will surely be first administed to those most at risk and those most likely to spread infection. After that wider application. We want to start trials of the antibody I am working on within months. Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working!

Thanks!

We know a vaccine is over a year away.

How about the “antibody” you are working on? Is that the antibody in plasma ‘thing’? How scalable is it? Assuming it works well how soon before it’s available (best case)?

@outofbreath – I think we now know that Cummings et al watch “Operation Ouch”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/50000690

Can I suggest that all the people asking facile questions about herd immunity

oof, I think there’s a lot of misunderstanding about Covid-19 that’s from media reporting it as a “new flu strain” which gives people a false sense of what this actually is coupled with the fact that it’s clear that folk are’t clear about immune response and so on.

oof, I think there’s a lot of misunderstanding about Covid-19 that’s from media reporting it as a “new flu strain”

No, there’s a of people assuming it’s ‘just flu’ thankfully that has pretty much dropped off.

I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels, we need to hope that this is from already approved drugs that can have additional indicated use approved, if not then the process will be much longer as safety data will be required.

Trials are underway on some drugs.

Clinical trial to find effective Covid-19 treatments gets underway

Question from a idiot – I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter. Considering younger kids in particular appear to be walking biological weapons is this not a crazy idea? My six year old brings home a new illness on a weekly basis. Colds, vomiting, the shits etc.

We’ve also been informed that our two and a half year old daughter is in the high risk category and needs to be kept under lockdown for twelve weeks as of last Friday. Not keen on sending my son to school considering this.

Apologies if I’m being a bit thick here.

I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels,

Presumably aim for that, work on a vaccine – prepare the infrastructure for vaccination in advance – increase NHS resources as much as possible to give more headway for dealing with critical cases, plus care for non-covid patients safely, and look at how you can most effectively shield the most vulnerable. Test for anti-bodies and, if immunity exists, look at the best way of releasing those people back into ‘normal life’. Or not, but at least you have a clearer picture of the historic scale of infection.

Aside from a vaccine, none of those is going to sort things on their own, but if you can combine them, you at least have a little more scope and fewer people, hopefully die. Obviously in true STW style I am a mountain biker rather than a scientist, but a fair bit of this looks like common sense. I’m sure someone will be along shortly to explain exactly why it isn’t though 🙂

Question from a idiot – I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter.

You know more than schools do then!!

Where did you read that?

I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter. Considering younger kids in particular appear to be walking biological weapons is this not a crazy idea? My six year old brings home a new illness on a weekly basis. Colds, vomiting, the shits etc.

For key workers kids only if necessary I’ve not heard otherwise.