Question from a idiot – I’ve just read that schools may be reopening two weeks after Easter.

Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September

Just read it on news feed on iPhone. Probably just the press speculating. I’ve been avoiding newsfeeds in the main as a lot of them seem to treat everything with a level of sensationalism I find odd. News as entertainment. Especially annoying under current circumstances.

Dracs keyworker comment msy stand, but schools have been open for them throughout anyway.

Question from a idiot

Where did you read that? as it sounds an absolutely bonkers idea to me.

Dracs keyworker comment msy stand, but schools have been open for them throughout anyway.

Yup as discussed yesterday those lazy teachers have even given up their Easter break.

Trust me, based on normal drug development timelines, that is remarkable. I can not tell you how fast we are working

Our main business for the last 15 years or more has been phase 2 clinical trials meetings, We can be going to the same trial meetings for a couple of years or more before they move on to phase 3 or they are abandoned. Of course all those have stopped, we probably won’t have any work for months and months because all the resources are being directed at this. Unless you’ve seen it you can have no idea how long these things normally take and how few compounds ever become an effective medicine. What is happening now is utterly extraordinary, not sure anything like it has ever been attempted. Just like the last war was won as much by people sitting on their arse as those in the front line the same will be true here. Those sacrificing their own lives in the front line are doing it to give the arse sitters time to save the rest of us. So don’t forget to clap for them too.

Just realised where it’s from. Seems like idle speculation from a tabloid. Sorry folks, I should have read more carefully before posting.

https://apple.news/ASaL28BVAQ6elBWW1_BaCCA

Wish they would stick to posting properly checked facts as opposed to speculation. It serves no purpose at all. Dickheads. Don’t know why I picked today to decide to look at the newsfeed on the phone.

Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September

I think the red tops have taken the “lockdown to be reviewed on 16th” (as it must be every 3 weeks) and “schools will be one of the first things to go back under the as yet undefined and unscheduled exit plan” and combined the two.

I think the easiest way that we will be released from lockdown is if some palliative drugs are found that reduce the disease and damage caused to minor levels,

Yeah, although an antibody test changes everything and seems even quicker the re-purposing a drug.

How about this for a “sporty” suggestion for how soon we could be out:

If, as I believe, we have reached the peak of infections, the focus will soon turn to how we can safely escape the lockdown.

This is my opinion on how it could be done safely. (If peak NHS activity is this weekend and people continue to behave themselves.) (1/5)

— Professor Karol Sikora (@ProfKarolSikora) April 8, 2020

Wish they would stick to posting properly checked facts as opposed to speculation.

Yeah it’s always worth reading past the headline.

an unnamed senior minister said: “We need to be led by the science, of course.

That’s code for here’s some shit we’ve made up.

the wife had a key worker on the phone looking for an open nursery for their child mentioning that they thought some schools were reopening. Don’t know where it coming from, perhaps stories of it abroad and assuming it’s here too.

just seen this in the daily fail

Downing Street DELAYS decision on ending lockdown: Stay-at-home rules could go on for weeks amid claims coronavirus peak is still a week-and-a-half away – but some ministers hint schools could reopen after Easter

now all makes sense

Some people on this forum are talking about herd immunity as if it’s happening (you know who you are), it isn’t. Current infection rates even in the hardest hit countries are a fraction of a percent for declared cases and about 1% if you assume real cases are an order of magnitude higher – which is unlikely given the Mulhouse religious meeting in which 2000/2500 were aware they’d been infected, the percentage of people that don’t know they’ve had it is small.

To get herd immunity you are looking at 100 times more misery and suffering than were are seeing now.

The antibody test will be useful but only if sensitive enough, it also assumes people are not stupid with having positive result, plus we don’t know if having antibodies will prevent reinfections or prevent transmission

Just took my dog out along the street for my once a day outing. It’s near impossible to keep 2 meters apart when a family of 7 on bikes spread out all across the road (which has no pavement) zoom past. Made absolutely no attempt to all move to the same side of the road to give at least 2 meters space..selfish ignorant pricks.

Indeed which is why herd immunity was a non-strategy from the beginning. Herd immunity is just a natural consequence of the fire continuing to burn, assuming immunity is actually retained for a long enough period by individuals. It’s no more a policy that King Canute had a policy to control the tide.

Member
declared cases

Aye declared cases, there’s no country testing every one of their citizens though.

A week ago the imperial college were estimating this, I’d imagine things have moved on in the last 10 days.

And we’re all only in the first month of this… Many months to go.

If immunity isn’t a thing, that’s not good, cause lock downs aren’t lasting for 12-18 months.

Immunity isn’t and never has been a policy, it’s just a consequence and a consideration over time.

It also sounds like anti body testing is further away than we’d like too.

Testing is good, as it gives us a picture of what and where it’s happening, but that and lock downs aren’t going to stop this on their own.

You also talk as if people, like me that understand that immunity is and needs to be a consideration are talking as if we want it just to be let loose through to populations, we don’t, that would be crazy.

But in lieu of a miracle and the virus dying out on it’s own or a vaccine magically appearing early. Then how to lift restrictions while protecting the most amount of people is still the only game in town.

Cause as I say, lock down isn’t lasting forever.

How about this for a “sporty” suggestion for how soon we could be out:

His self-appointed role so far has to be the voice of optimism, convincing people to stay strong because things are working. I’ve chosen to believe him, partly because I need all the optimism I can get at the moment, as above my Wife’s Nursing team is currently at 30% infection rates, with 10% being hospitalised (bare in mind it’s a team of 10, not thousands).

He’s usually fairly cautious with his his ifs/buts/caveats but he’s not been much off the mark and whilst he’s an Oncologist, not a virologist he’s a highly experienced one. I put more faith in him than I do politicians or journalists unless they’re directly quoting experts.

While was out on my state sanctioned one a day, I did wonder (after observing that there was an awful lot of traffic about) whether petrol rationing had come up in government thinking.

Ah yes, Prof Karol Sikora, long time critic of the NHS, founder of a private for profit University and a CEO private health company, not an epidemelogist. Professional contrarian, liar, and not at all an interested party…
wikipedia

Some people on this forum are talking about herd immunity as if it’s happening (you know who you are),

Well it is. The end state here *is* herd immunity.

Current infection rates even in the hardest hit countries are a fraction of a percent for declared cases and about 1% if you assume real cases are an order of magnitude higher – which is unlikely given the Mulhouse religious meeting in which 2000/2500 were aware they’d been infected, the percentage of people that don’t know they’ve had it is small.

To get herd immunity you are looking at 100 times more misery and suffering than were are seeing now.

Or a vaccine. The reason we have a herd immunity to Mumps is because of the MMR vac etc. PRetty painless!

Also your numbers are wrong. Literally nobody knows how many people have already had it. (There are estimates from 500,000 to 30 million in the UK.)

Yup as discussed yesterday those lazy teachers have even given up their Easter break.

Some have. Many haven’t.

His self-appointed role so far has to be the voice of optimism, convincing people to stay strong because things are working. I’ve chosen to believe him, partly because I need all the optimism I can get at the moment

Yup, that’s why I follow him. This is the first thing he’s said I thought was especially controversial 🙂

Those imperial figures are for infected at 28/3/2020 so the majority of them will have symptoms by now. If they’re right then about 2 million Brits were infected at that date and you can expect a death toll of over 1% (based on the Mulhouse experience) of those infected a month or so later so 20 000. And that’s just for 2.7% infected. Now do it for the 60% needed for herd immunity.

And what if erradication is possible. The Chinese seem to be claiming it is. The exit strategies being developped in France, Germany and Italy all seem to be based on progressively less cases rather than progessiviely more. Confinement to get down to manageable numbers then test and trace to slowly knock out the remaining clusters.

(There are estimates from 500,000 to 30 million in the UK.)

Well, I just estimated that we’ve all had it so add that to the list 😀

What sort of accuracy is required for a good standard, or useful standard of test?

It depends upon how many people have caught it in the population as well as how accurate it is. A 95% accurate test with 3% of the population having the antibody would mean just over 60% of those testing positive for the antibody will not have it. The equivalent number of a 99% test would be 25%.

Aye declared cases, there’s no country testing every one of their citizens though.

A week ago the imperial college were estimating this, I’d imagine things have moved on in the last 10 days.

And we’re all only in the first month of this… Many months to go.

If immunity isn’t a thing, that’s not good, cause lock downs aren’t lasting for 12-18 months.

Immunity isn’t and never has been a policy, it’s just a consequence and a consideration over time.

It also sounds like anti body testing is further away than we’d like too.

Testing is good, as it gives us a picture of what and where it’s happening, but that and lock downs aren’t going to stop this on their own.

You also talk as if people, like me that understand that immunity is and needs to be a consideration are talking as if we want it just to be let loose through to populations, we don’t, that would be crazy.

But in lieu of a miracle and the virus dying out on it’s own or a vaccine magically appearing early. Then how to lift restrictions while protecting the most amount of people is still the only game in town.

Cause as I say, lock down isn’t lasting forever.

+1 to all of this.

If immunity isn’t a thing, that’s not good, cause lock downs aren’t lasting for 12-18 months.

Yup… If immunity isn’t a thing then a vaccine won’t work either and we’ll just have to all get Corona Virus over and over again for the rest of our lives.

Yes I find it baffling people seem keen to disprove immunity..

Honestly, think about the ramifications of there being no immunity…..

Where the hell did you read that? Our schools seem to be assuming they are going back in September

Whereas in higher education, people are considering that the autumn term may not happen. I don’t know the expected likelyhood and probably just worst case contingency planning. But september is not a cert.

. The exit strategies being developped(sic) in France, Germany and Italy all seem to be based on progressively less cases rather than progessiviely(sic) more.

Linky?

It isn’t trying to disprove immunity, it is simply we don’t know if it exists long term for coronaviruses.
Plus when you include the ability of viruses to mutate and change the chances could be high.
it is basic virology and immunology sadly. And it is a reality we might have to face

Yes I find it baffling people seem keen to disprove immunity..

Honestly, think about the ramifications of there being no immunity…..

Anti Vaxxers aren’t famed for their thinking. 🙂

Psst… people do know that past viruses have had to be eradicated by containment, because herd immunity didn’t/wouldn’t happen? Acting as if herd immunity achieved by infection is the only way out of this would be a pretty stupid move. The most likely way out is containment via actively giving contact workers immunity (in either of the ways Tired and others have explained) followed by a wider active immunisation programme, and/or using drugs to prevent the worse symptoms for those infected. But, there is always a chance with a novel virus that only by containing and starving the virus of new hosts can we ‘beat’ it, and we should perhaps be considering that, and the very unusual steps that might require (South Korea).

Regarding the chart quoted above. I was speaking to a Danish guy yesterday and he said that blood was being tested from donors and it was showing 2.5% had evidence of coronavirus which is on the higher end of the scale

Edukator
infected a month or so later so 20 000. And that’s just for 2.7% infected.

2.7% infected. Death rate the imperial college are working on is about 0.5%(it’s variable depending on location but we’ll go with that)

So

66m in the uk

2.7% = 1.782m.

1.782m/200 = 8910.

so with a 2-2.5ish week lag the modelling seems fairly accurate, unfortunately.

It isn’t trying to disprove immunity, it is simply we don’t know if it exists long term for coronaviruses.
Plus when you include the ability of viruses to mutate and change the chances could be high.
it is basic virology and immunology sadly. And it is a reality we might have to face

This thing mutates slower than flu and is half as complex. All the credible opinion I’ve seen is that there will very likely be a vaccine. The problem is it’s over 1 year away, by which time humanity will have done most of the job the old fashioned way.

Regarding the chart quoted above. I was speaking to a Danish guy yesterday and he said that blood was being tested from donors and it was showing 2.5% had evidence of coronavirus which is on the higher end of the scale

Yup, we could be in for a pleasant surprise, couldn’t we.

The problem is it’s over 1 year away

That’s a maybe, not a fact. I’ve read several times Sep/Oct it very unlikely, but not impossible. Jan/Feb most likely. One to two years pessimistic. Never or several years still a possibility.

A week ago the imperial college were estimating this, I’d imagine things have moved on in the last 10 days.

View post on imgur.com

And we’re all only in the first month of this… Many months to go.

Optimistic take:

given that its a week out of date… italy at 10% and spain at 15% while still on the increase half of their sombrero (they may now be at the peak about now). meaning 20 – 30% at least by the end of their sombrero.

Assume this happens again in the autumn as per the imperial model, that gets 40 to 60% infected and recovered, which (by the Spain numbers) comes up to the point where the “herd immunity” actually works, as there aren’t enough susceptible people for sick people to infect.

kelvin
The most likely way out is containment

The question I have is is containment even possible though? It’s rife, Places like China and tbh even South Korea I’m fairly suspicious of their reported numbers, but even if they are true, their methods are unlikely to widely adopted in the ‘west’.

That’s before we even get to countries like India, chances do they even have of containing it, numbers of 5,480 cases and 164 deaths in india? Aye sure…

So do we lock our borders while it rips through these countries?

Talk of exit strategies above, but how can ‘a’ country have an exit strategy that doesn’t involve long term isolation of an entire nation?

If there’s an exit strategy it needs to be a worldwide exit strategy surely, or it’s just pissing against the wind lin lieu of long term isolation(variable) and completely locking down it’s borders? while waiting for a vaccine.

Optimistic take:

given that its a week out of date… italy at 10% and spain at 15% while still on the increase half of their sombrero (they may now be at the peak about now). meaning 20 – 30% at least by the end of their sombrero.

Assume this happens again in the autumn as per the imperial model, that gets 40 to 60% infected and recovered, which (by the Spain numbers) comes up to the point where the “herd immunity” actually works, as there aren’t enough susceptible people for sick people to infect.

…and if even 25pc of people have resistance that R0 still drops helpfully. We’re not hoping for perfection, we just don’t want a gazzilion people turning up at hospital on the same day.

That’s a maybe, not a fact. I’ve read several times Sep/Oct it very unlikely, but not impossible. Jan/Feb most likely. One to two years pessimistic. Never or several years still a possibility.

Linky to the source of the Sep/Oct date.