Viewing 40 posts - 7,601 through 7,640 (of 39,835 total)
  • The Coronavirus Discussion Thread.
  • GlennQuagmire
    Free Member

    The IMHE data looks like complete bollocks. Garbage in, garbage out.

    Let’s stick to results (to date) from reliable sources.

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    Well considering Swedish bars are still open……..

    You just have to ask WTF? or so they know something we don’t? Thier graphs will be interesting in to comming months.

    Speaking of graphs, as @glennquagmire said, gargabge in, garbage out.

    There’s just not enough data at the moment, at least not pubically available data. And what data there is, is fuzzified by many many variables, how many tests are done? and to whoom?

    All we’ve got right now is a very fuzzy indication and whilst the trends are probably trending vaguely with reality, there’s simply not enough data for anyone to be making accertations.

    Also whilst I’m on, lay off the teachers, let their parents take some responsibility for giving their offspring some daily structure to life and a bit of education.

    People also seem focused on death rates…thats hard when so many are infected and theres no data really on recovery rates, other than those that become criticaly ill, well of course the death rate in the crittically ill demographic is going to be bad.

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    @glennquagmire ive been using this..it’s sometimes up to 24 hrs out of date but it seems a bit more like a rational way of looking at it.

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    Fresh Goods Friday 696: The Middling Edition

    Fresh Goods Friday 696: The Middlin...
    Latest Singletrack Videos
    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    My LinkedIn feed is full of these data visualizations (ESRI are pushing them hard)  I like them in terms of map geekery but they don’t provide much insight.

    The data is often 2-3 days old

    They are usually quite coarse, i.e. at country level (I have seen a Dutch one at 2 digit postal code)

    What value do they provide? It’s not like you can get in a car or plane and avoid a place as the developed world is mostly under restriction of movement.

    GlennQuagmire
    Free Member

    @mattyfez thank you. The predictions and results seem to vary by quite a wide margin so I’ll take a look at your link.

    Ultimately fingers crossed we can get through this.

    mattyfez
    Full Member

    What value do they provide?

    I agree it’s low value data, but if you look at the lower yellow graph, the logmaritmic and daily infection increase… it tells a more interesting story than (deaths V’s “X”)

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    According to R4 Today the finger prick antibody tests evaluation finished: They didn’t work well enough. 🙁

    That was my last (only) hope for some kind of summer. Seems clear we’re gonna be inside ’till Autumn. Best hope of some kind of summer is a targeted lockdown or on/off lockdowns.

    This sucks. Effective house arrest for months.

    (I can’t find the story online so maybe I misheard. Fingers crossed…)

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    The Govt did say the lockdown would be on/off when they started it 3 weeks ago. A lot has changed since then

    Let’s stay optimistic

    Kryton57
    Full Member

    Let’s stay optimistic

    Exactly. Stop posting depressive conjecture, you’re not helping yourself or others.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    According to R4 Today the finger prick antibody tests evaluation finished: They didn’t work well enough.

    I hope they do free returns!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/matt-hancock-35m-coronavirus-test-kits-are-on-the-way-to-the-nhs

    Hancock constantly making promises he can’t keep only undermines trust at the moment

    Lots of companies are working on this so some sort of test should be along at some point (I read that some of the early kits tested in Italy only had a 30% success rate !) Was always a big ask that one’s be available so soon.

    Can’t tell if Hancock is trying to be ‘optimistic’ or just is an habitual BSer

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Both seems plausible

    hels
    Free Member

    In fairness – Matt Hancock spoke more about targets than promises. And he is one of the better ones, although also in fairness, the bar isn’t high.

    nickc
    Full Member

    Seems clear we’re gonna be inside ’till Autumn. Best hope of some kind of summer is a targeted lockdown or on/off lockdowns.

    That’s squashing the sombrero. Translate a fast spike of 1000’s of deaths in a short period into a manageable dome of 1000’s of deaths over a longer period. The difference is time, the deaths stay the same (or slightly reduced hopefully) Until a treatment is available we’re going to have periods of lock down interrupted by periods of relative freedom. This isn’t pessimistic, and pretending that it’s not going to be this isn’t optimism it’s fairystories.

    anagallis_arvensis
    Full Member

    John Prine got to heaven I hope.

    BadlyWiredDog
    Full Member

    Let’s stay optimistic

    What I’m trying to do is live, as much as I can, in the now – or at least the next week or so. Being optimistic leaves you open to disappointment, being pessimistic is depressing. But you can be curious about the world around you and the oddness of our situation.

    There’s a lot to be fascinated by: the way the media seems determined to prove that bad people are flouting the lockdown, even though mostly that doesn’t seem to be the case. The odd tendency of people to tell other people what to do in BLOCK CAPITALS even though mostly those people are almost certainly doing it. Our media’s fixation on painting the situation we’re in as a ‘war’ as if brave fighters can somehow ‘defeat’ the virus when they get it, as per Raab on Johnson.

    The way the extraordinary work of the NHS is suddenly centre stage and we realise, as a society, how we undervalue those people who are doing incredible work the rest of the time when they are still doing incredible work. Oh, and our relationship with death, which is right at the heart of this. Every year over half a million people die in the UK, but we’ve succeeded in somehow making it a near invisible process. Suddenly it’s all too visible.

    Sorry, that’s the historian in me coming out I guess. Am at the tail-end of what, may or may not have been moderate-ish Covid-19 and have had lots of time to think in between the waves of coughing and weird chest tightness and high altitude breathing – think bivying at over 4000m when you’re not properly acclimatised – elevated heart rate, depressed HRV and random deep muscle pains.

    Anyway, I guess my point is that we have no individual control over what happens with the lockdown, all we can really do is follow the regs using a modicum of common sense, survive day-day-to-day and see what happens. YMMV.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    Our media’s fixation on painting the situation we’re in as a ‘war’ as if brave fighters can somehow ‘defeat’ the virus when they get it, as per Raab on Johnson.

    yeah the whole ‘compare everything to a war’ analogy just seems so trite

    It also means that if Johnson doesnt shrug it off & is back to his old wiffle waffle self by next wednsday, then somehow he isnt a fighter after all

    Caher
    Full Member

    I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    In fairness – Matt Hancock spoke more about targets than promises

    The targets were for the antigen test

    Hancock was quite specific about the antibody kits

    https://metro.co.uk/video/hancock-weve-bought-3-5-million-antibody-tests-2137170/?ito=vjs-link

    BadlyWiredDog
    Full Member

    It also means that if Johnson doesnt shrug it off & is back to his old wiffle waffle self by next wednsday, then somehow he isnt a fighter after all

    Yep, I thought the whole ‘Boris is a fighter’ thing and will definitely be okay was misguided. The reality is that he’s someone who’s body is trying to fend off a viral illness and whether he grits his teeth or not will make very little difference. I very much hope he comes through this regardless of his politics and character, but if he does it’ll be down to a combination of physiological and other factors, plus the very best care that the NHS can provide rather than because he’s some sort of tough guy.

    Marina Hyde in yesterday’s Guardian sums it up well:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/07/horror-coronavirus-real-imaginary-war-britain

    kelvin
    Full Member

    I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.

    Because they had an actual lock down, we’re reducing/slowing contact and spread, not trying to stop it completely. They attempted (still too early to say succeeded) to isolate people so that the virus could not find any new hosts and died off… “we” decided that we couldn’t take the measures required for that (probably true) so haven’t even tried.

    jam-bo
    Full Member

    I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.

    they locked people in their houses for 2 months.

    kelvin
    Full Member

    he’s some sort of tough guy

    It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.

    mrmonkfinger
    Free Member

    There will always be people cherry picking a view that matches their previous views on Boris. Rough and tumble Boris with the jolly japes, cutting through the red tape and sticking it to the establishment, he can do anything. He’s the greatest golfer you know, once shot five successive hole-in-ones. He is an international concert standard pianist, didn’t you know? Plus, when he was young, he was a champion 100m sprinter, and he has obtained four PhDs. Or was that Kim Jong Un? I forget now.

    weeksy
    Full Member

    It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.

    Like who and what would they do differently ?

    willard
    Full Member

    Another update from Stockholm…

    Life goes on. I know people in retail that are seeing a huge drop in customers and that is not really surprising as people get more used to both social distancing (already a Swedish practice, just now a little bit more distance) and the fact that they should be at home unless they have to be.

    However, people are still meeting each other and I have found out that some gyms have reopened, which I find really bizarre. GF and I are sticking to running the local trails and trying to stay away from other people but, on the way back two days ago, saw a group of about 15 people going out for a group run.

    I’m watching the stats with a combination of interest and fear, hoping that they stay low and the trust that our prime minister has placed in us will not be misplaced. Stockholm for sure seems to be an outlier, people just don’t seem to get it, maybe more the younger generation that see themselves as low risk or more able to survive it. We’ve been asked to thinking like responsible adults and I cannot say for sure that, like the UK, a few people will not invalidate that theory.

    Nobeerinthefridge
    Free Member

    Like who and what would they do differently ?

    Not go one TV announcing that you’re shaking everyone’s hands, when you’re aware that thousands of people had already died from a virus that is transmitted in such a way?. Just a thought.

    TiRed
    Full Member

    Optimistic: Primary epidemic in the UK will be over by July. Controls will be in place over the Summer Holidays. Staged return to some semblance of normality during that six week period. Can’t see much further or clearer than that. I’d expect some sort of travel restrictions over the summer too (International), so hope for nice weather. BTW these are only my opinions. I make no recommendations, merely provide analysis.

    Even more optimistic – I’ll be back on the trike training for the national 12hr 😀 . Well I can dream. Started a course of prophylactic antibiotics to protect from potential lung pneumonia (COVID DAY13/14 now). Felt a bit better yesterday and not so light-headed. A little breathless up and down the stairs, but small steps. Son1 shook it off easier than a cold!

    outofbreath
    Free Member

    What I’m trying to do is live, as much as I can, in the now – or at least the next week or so.

    I’ve had two major injuries in the last 5 years and I’ve spent months “Focusing on what I can do rather than dwelling on what I can’t ” Yes, it’s the right approach, but I’m afraid I’m sick of it. I was due a bloody summer of fun. I feel I’ve done my fair share of stiff upper lip and I want to stamp my feet and whine a bit. (I’m also aware that other people are really suffering in horrific and tragic ways over this, not just missing fun with their family.)

    Until a treatment is available we’re going to have periods of lock down interrupted by periods of relative freedom. This isn’t pessimistic, and pretending that it’s not going to be this isn’t optimism it’s fairystories.

    Well a cheap and plentiful antibody test would free a fair few people up and it was looking like that would be much quicker than a treatment, less so now.

    they locked people in their houses for 2 months.

    Yes, and as of last week being ‘out of lockdown’ meant being allowed to leave the house for 2 hours to go shopping. I strongly suspect what’s being reported as the ‘end of lockdown’ is still pretty draconian. Plus they lie about the numbers for flu, why wouldn’t they lie about their numbers for CV?

    So in order to cheer myself up a bit… I can carry a kayak 400m from my front door to water. I’m 100pc sure me doing that alone is kosher because it would be exercise, I’d paddle at pace and not faff around. So far so good. What about Family Kayaking with 4yo and 7yo? The 4yo will be in my boat but not be reliably paddling. He’ll be out in the fresh air and active, but he won’t be strictly exercising. The 7yo will be paddling her own boat, but instead of ‘pressing on’ there will be much pottering about, look at water vole holes, that sort of stuff. Frankly I think that’s as much exercise as a family walk or cycle ride which also involves a lot of top start. (Or dog walking which seems to involve a lot of standing around). Of course family kayaking is still exercise for the mind. How far does the panel think I can legitimately take the Kayaking?

    Of course I’m pretty sure that kayaking won’t *look* like exercise to my neighbours so that perhaps stops it stone dead, but if this is going on over the entire summer what my neighbours think will be less important than my sanity.

    Flaperon
    Full Member

    Because they had an actual lock down, we’re reducing/slowing contact and spread, not trying to stop it completely.

    I rode through Harrogate yesterday afternoon, traffic wasn’t vastly different from any other weekday. Was everyone a key worker? Not bloody likely, given the number of families and amount of grey hair that I could see, mixed in with your typical obese David Brent taking his X5 out “for a spin”.

    Coronavirus was already going to thin out the Honda-driving population in Harrogate.

    The police have pretty much given up enforcing the lockdown in North Yorkshire and are targeting the tiny fraction of people driving or riding in beauty spots (I agree, they should be at home but the actual risk of infection spread is minimal) and ignoring the gangs of kids riding up and down the Nidderdale Greenway, which is often busy with other cyclists and walkers at the best of times.

    dazh
    Full Member

    This sucks. Effective house arrest for months.

    If you have a road bike, use it. The roads are amazingly quiet, and there’s very little chance of spreading or catching anything while riding empty roads.

    Chew
    Free Member

    Optimistic: Primary epidemic in the UK will be over by July. Controls will be in place over the Summer Holidays. Staged return to some semblance of normality during that six week period. Can’t see much further or clearer than that. I’d expect some sort of travel restrictions over the summer too (International), so hope for nice weather. BTW these are only my opinions. I make no recommendations, merely provide analysis.

    Same conclusion here

    Italy 33000 (29400 to 37400) deaths

    Also getting a similar number from my own modelling, although this doesnt account for any secondary inpact from when restrictions are relaxed.

    mehr
    Free Member

    Regarding summer holidays I noticed this morning that FCO advice has changed to an indefinite travel restriction

    torsoinalake
    Free Member

    The other thing with framing this as a ‘war’ is that it changes the discussion from it being a disgrace that doctors, nurses and other frontline staff are dying doing their jobs, to it being acceptable because that’s what happens in war. Now let’s all clap.

    PJay
    Free Member

    Wtf Stockholm.

    Another update from Stockholm…

    Sorry, I’ve not been following this thread so don’t know what’s already been covered, but Sweden (& Brazil) are following a “Herd Immunity” approach; the idea seems to be that if enough people showing mild or no symptoms infect a large proportion of others who go on to develop mild or no symptoms then the “herd immunity” will rise to a point where the virus no longer becomes viable; hospital admissions are suppose to be manageable. There’s a fair amount about herd immunity on the net (along with a fair bit of opinion that Sweden is heading for a catastrophe.

    he’s some sort of tough guy

    It’s really taken off though… loads of people saying how lucky we are to have such a “strong man” in charge, a “fighter”… rather than wishing for someone with better judgment.

    Can’t stand the man and think that we’re 3 months behind the curve because he wasn’t paying attention but his popularity is really surging. I’m afraid that I’m also rapidly becoming a cynical old git and even got to the point of wondering whether it wasn’t all stage managed to boost his popularity and cover over the balls up (admitted to hospital “as a precaution”, admitted to ICU “as a precaution” & and I’m sure I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in “good spirits” which isn’t the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU). The whole things does now seem to be on a war footing (along with propaganda) and I think Boris sees himself as a sort of Churchill figure. I’m quite possibly totally wrong though.

    I just don’t understand how the figures in Wuhan are so low.

    they locked people in their houses for 2 months.

    They’re also a controlling communist state that’s “liberal” with the truth and forced the doctor who originally highlighted Covid19 to sign a confession admitting that he was lying (he subsequently died).

    China may well have everything under control now but equally we need to be careful at taking what they say at face value (I’d also be interested to to know what they’ve been up to in Hong Kong during the last few months).

    rydster
    Free Member

    The Downing Street press release have been bizarre almost patronising like you’d speak to a small child. Into hospital in the early evening as a ‘precaution’, into ICU as a ‘precaution’, in ‘high spirits’ on oxygen, ‘strong constitution’, ‘played rugby’. ‘fighter’. Plz. I can handle bad news.

    P-Jay
    Free Member

    Sorry, I’ve not been following this thread so don’t know what’s already been covered, but Sweden (& Brazil) are following a “Herd Immunity” approach; the idea being that if enough people showing mild or no symptoms infect a large proportion of others who go on to develop mild or no symptoms then the “herd immunity” will rise to a point where the virus no longer becomes viable. There’s a fair amount about herd immunity on the net (along with a fair bit of opinion that Sweden is heading for a catastrophe.

    This was the UK approach at first but it proved to be politically unpalatable and practically unviable because we didn’t have the NHS capacity to deal with it.

    The inconvenient truth is a viable vaccine may be years away so herd immunity might be the only solution unless we want to spend years in lock-down, I do wonder if we can ever eradicate it completely just by locking down everyone all over the world. After all, it started when 3 people in a wet market in China caught it and 6 months later 1.4 million people have it and 80k are dead.

    Maybe Sweden has a lot more headroom in their Healthcare system.

    What’s the real ‘exit strategy’? eradicate it from the UK, maybe? China and Korea might just do it, but it just takes a single case, someone arriving on ship / plane or riding a Donkey and a few months later we’re back here.

    I remember back 3 weeks ago, no one in Government said “We’re going into lock-down until it’s been eradicated” they said “We’re going to flatten the curve until the NHS can cope with it” There’s something like 10k extra bed now in the UK. I wouldn’t be surprised if in a few weeks, when the numbers fall enough they announce they’re reopening the schools, shops, pubs etc and we go back to a “people with symptoms should self-isolate” standing. Especially if the anti-body tests project has failed.

    Drac
    Full Member

    I saw a report stating that he was on a lot less oxygen than those usually admitted to ICU, also described as in “good spirits” which isn’t the usual description of someone fighting for their lives in ICU

    4 litres that’s pretty normal for an ICU and yes “Good Spirits” or “stable” which they’ve also used is fairly normal talk.

    This was the UK approach at first but it proved to be politically unpalatable and practically unviable because we didn’t have the NHS capacity to deal with it.

    No it wasn’t the plans have always been available to view, they also made it clear in media reports. They wanted to control the spread the best they could then when numbers start to rise perform a lockdown that would be reviewed weekly. This has been discussed about 120 pages back.

    I_did_dab
    Free Member

    Interesting comment in the Guardian saying this isn’t a war, there’s no enemy to fight. Instead, we have to look after each other and care for the sick – this is love, not war.
    I like that thought.

    P-Jay
    Free Member

    Also, and this is only me trying to understand stuff my Wife was saying (Nurse)

    “ITU beds” data should be taken with a pinch of salt. ITU wards are reasonably rare, but there’s nothing ‘that’ fancy about ITU beds, mostly the same equipment as normal ward beds with 1-to-1 nursing and of course, the famous Ventilator.

    If you install one of the new striped down Ventilators they’re producing onto a normal ward bed and a screen to separate it, it’s probably good enough to care for a Covid patient, but is it an ITU bed? I supposed that depends on who’s counting.

    rydster
    Free Member

    Lockdown will most likely be relaxed in degrees according to the evidence base, maybe even re-tightened if hospital admissions get out of control again. Like a dance. I’d hope that pubs were one of the last priorities.

Viewing 40 posts - 7,601 through 7,640 (of 39,835 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.