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  • Ukraine
  • fact ukr wasnt allowed to use western weapons on russian soil for khakiv

    I think most people could understand the reticence to allow it. Not an issue when shit goes bang or works how intended, but misfires/duds or disabled kit in the hands of an enemy that NATO countries have spent a significant period of time developing kit to fight against is sub-optimal.

    If f Ukraine had the capability to deny equipment in the event of such things then it would be less of an issue, but some of the recent equipment and advances in their doctrine/capability may have helped ease that reluctance.

    thols2
    Full Member

    Shoigo sacked, probably a bad thing for Ukraine, considering how shit he was.

    Replaced by an economist, not a military guy. That means that Putin has twigged that he needs to get his military economy sorted and try to do something about the corruption.

    I doubt that the F16s will be used over the front lines. I think they will be used for air defense well away from Russian air defenses, or to launch precision guided weapons. They won’t be flying around strafing ground targets. Key thing will be what radar and electronics they have and what missiles they are supplied with.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    but misfires/duds or disabled kit in the hands of an enemy that NATO countries have spent a significant period of time developing kit to fight against is sub-optimal.

    Very true, but thankfully it goes both ways. Whilst western governments have shown understandable reticence to expose the capabilities of their very best kit, I don’t think the Russians have held back. They have been fielding the best munitions, weapons and EW kit they produce. And much of it has been abandoned, stolen, captured etc. I’m sure the Ukrainians haven’t been shy in sharing it with Western ‘advisors’.

    Our military intelligence guys will have had unprecedented opportunity to carry out technical exploitation of the very best Russian equipment. This will inform TTPs and allow development of effective countermeasures for years to come if (god forbid) we ever have to have a scuffle with the Ruskies.

    hatter
    Full Member

    Yes, but this was considered politically unacceptable.

    In fairness to Ukraine, I can understand the squeamishmess about shovelling the very generation that you will need to rebuild the country into the meat grinder. If you can win with old men who’ve already had kids then society carries on, some of the ancient Greeks had a similar approach.

    Also, if they had expanded the draft I’m not sure they would.have had the ability to train and equip that many people in the early stages of the war.

    For a sobering look at Real world consequences of the delays in aid, Joe Macdonalds latest video is a tough watch.

    hatter
    Full Member

    Robert Fico, the pro-Russian PM of Slovakia has just been shot multiple times in an assassination attempt.

    His party got 22% of the vote in recent elections, enough to get him the premiership but it’s safe to assume that a large chunk of Slovakians disagree strongly with his active efforts to block Ukrainian aid.

    Regardless of the Gunman’s actual motives and affiliations, there will be a concerted effort to blame this on Ukraine.

    In fact, a Ukraine supporter attacking an EU head of state would be so politically helpful for Russia I wouldn’t rule out a false flag, esp as Fico has been largely unsuccessful in holding up EU aid and may be more useful to Putin as a martyr.

    The truth will out eventually but its going to be a massive mess in the meantime.

    sobriety
    Free Member

    Yeah, I’ve filed it under “crazy person does crazy thing” just now as that’s the most likely scenario given what we know.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    I see America (Blinken) has publicly said they wont tell Ukraine it can’t use munitions they supply inside Russia.

    Good. It’s ridiculous to effectively make Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind it’s back.

    dyna-ti
    Full Member

    “crazy person does crazy thing” just now as that’s the most likely scenario given what we know.

    How about ‘Concerned citizen shoots corrupt politician’

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    Looks like teh press is getting the blame, poignant after Fico is trying to block intependent TV broadcaster and replace it with one more “aligned” to to government…. a bit like a Slovakian version of Russia Today perhaps.

    timba
    Free Member

    I see America (Blinken) has publicly said they wont tell Ukraine it can’t use munitions they supply inside Russia.

    Good. It’s ridiculous to effectively make Ukraine fight with one arm tied behind it’s back.

    He said, “We’ve not enabled or encouraged strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately, Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it’s going to conduct this war”

    It’s similar to the quote from US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III a page back^^, which isn’t what the NSA, Jake Sullivan is saying.

    When I see a report of either ATACMS or Patriot exploding within Russia then I’ll believe it. The US Helsinki Commission has stated that it should be allowed and Ukraine is sending a mission to Washington to make the plea

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Regarding Fico:

    His most recent fall from grace was in 2018, when mass protests forced his resignation in the wake of the murder of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée.

    Amongst all the other “reforms” he’s made he’s  abolished the department investigating that crime…

    His party are also pushing the whole “liberal media” being to blame for the assassination.

    There is a standard playlist that seems to be used by all the authoritarian regimes these days. It’s been used by Trump of course too, it’s just he hasn’t managed to usurp democratic government in the USA. Yet.

    This is one of the trains why journalists are being killed in such large numbers world wide. Look at Gaza.

    BruceWee
    Full Member

    I guess this is tangentially related so I thought I would post here rather than start yet another thread about a conflict:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/france-accuse-azerbaijan-fomenting-deadly-riot-overseas-territory-new-caledonia/

    I honestly had never heard of New Caledonia before and was surprised to see it was off the coast of Australia.  But it looks like Azerbaijan (and by extension Russia) may have some interest.

    thols2
    Full Member

    There’s nothing new about unrest in New Caledonia, it’s literally a French colony and the Polynesian inhabitants are quite resentful. It’s not really “off the coast of Australia”, it’s about as far as from the UK to Spain.

    alpin
    Free Member

    It’s not really “off the coast of Australia”, it’s about as far as from the UK to Spain.

    I guess that’s a long way, but London to Moscow is about the same distance as Perth to Adelaide, so in the context of things it’s not that far from Australia….!

    timba
    Free Member

    But it looks like Azerbaijan (and by extension Russia) may have some interest.

    Not wishing to derail the Ukraine thread, but it’s more about France-Azerbaijan relations than Russian influence

    There’s an explanation that saves me a load of typing here… https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240220-how-france-became-target-azerbaijan-smear-campaign

    Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia are more cordial than those with France, however, Azerbaijan is independent and, for example, exports energy to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor in competition with Russia

    thols2
    Full Member

     in the context of things it’s not that far from Australia

    So Asia is a land mass off the coast of Australia?

    Andy
    Full Member

    I think most people could understand the reticence to allow it. Not an issue when shit goes bang or works how intended, but misfires/duds or disabled kit in the hands of an enemy that NATO countries have spent a significant period of time developing kit to fight against is sub-optimal.

    And Ukraine are allowed to use this stuff on occupied parts of Ukraine where there is an equal chance it could be a dud and fall into Russian hands so that simply doesn’t add up.  Its just more slow walking by the USA to prolong the conflict and degrade Russia slower than needed at Ukraine’s expense.

    Ukraine were denied a massive opportunity to hit the Russians hard, when they were accumulating before they started the Kharkiv offensive.

    timba
    Free Member

    An update… no change on how to use US-provided weapons, “And we believe that is within Ukrainian territory,” https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/17/7456193/

    Ukraine’s free reign on other systems have led to attacks in Crimea and Novorossiysk (Russia), where most of the remaining Black Sea Fleet is now based https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/17/7456183/

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    I don’t think there was a total ban before – some of the earlier attacks on airfields and repair facilities in Russia were well explained by the US weapons that ‘had not yet been supplied…’.

    timba
    Free Member

    I don’t think there was a total ban before – some of the earlier attacks on airfields and repair facilities in Russia were well explained by the US weapons that ‘had not yet been supplied…’

    I haven’t seen any evidence to suggest that. You can be sure that if Russia had found US missile components in its territory then they would have been displayed and played for all that they were worth.

    “Two U.S. officials, when asked for comment, confirmed that the Biden administration’s policy has not changed. “The assistance is for the defense and not for offensive operations in Russian territory,” said one of the officials, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive issues.” https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/14/ukraine-weapons-russia-00157970

    There’s an argument that one person’s offensive operation in Russia is another’s defensive operation to prevent Russian actions, but there isn’t any evidence that that is the case either

    singletrackmind
    Full Member

    How are we classifying Crimea. If you’re going to lob missiles supplied by NATO participation countries in that direction , then why not clock them 90 degrees east.
    Occupied former Ukraine territory, now fully under Moscow control.
    I don’t know the word , but is it pedantic or schematic reasoning .

    FuzzyWuzzy
    Full Member

    I think the recent push into the Kharkiv oblast is more just about stretching the UkrA and forcing them to weaken Southern defensive positions, ready for a new RA offensive there in the summer. I can’t see RA/Putin is foolish enough to think they can just use slightly modified meat grinder tactics to overwhelm the Northern defences and actually capture Kharkiv (and then Kyiv).

    hat UkrA really need asap is artillery shells, artillery is still the most effective counter to RA tactics. Save the ATACMs etc. for strategic targets like air bases (and hopefully soon a massive strike on the Kerch Strait bridge, although that’s trickier due to the amount of AA that Russia have defending it).

    DT78
    Free Member

    As per that vid above the Russians know the ukraine front lines are pretty much out of the necessary weapons to stop them

    I was watching a vid about ‘turtle tanks’ that are now appearing on the front lines.  Basically a tank with a massive metal shield built around it to stop drones.  Absolutley zero use against an anti tank missle or artillery, but a reasonably effective counter measure to FPV, which it seems is pretty much all ukraine has (or had?) left

    The fact they didn’t absolutely murder the troop concentrations before the attack is either they didn#t have the kit, or the permission, or both

    Andy
    Full Member

    How are we classifying Crimea.

    US has always recognised Crimea as Ukraine, which is why use of ATACMS is permitted.

    hat UkrA really need asap is artillery shells

    Zelensky now stating that now no Ukraine army units are reporting shell shortages. This is before Czech procured stocks arrive in Ukraine.

    timba
    Free Member

    How are we classifying Crimea. If you’re going to lob missiles supplied by NATO participation countries in that direction , then why not clock them 90 degrees east.
    Occupied former Ukraine territory, now fully under Moscow control.
    I don’t know the word , but is it pedantic or schematic reasoning .

    This is part of Ukraine’s pro-missile use argument. Russia has declared the Donbas and Crimea Russian territory, so where’s the escalation in offensive actions within internationally-recognised Russia?

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    Russia is running at 1500 casualties per day, since the new offensive stared. Insanity.

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    There is a day by day loss register here… the number of soldiers lost and artillery too is daunting. Nearly at 500k.

    It also mentions a submarine but I don’t recall one being hit…

    https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian-invading/casualties/

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    US has always recognised Crimea as Ukraine

    Not just the US. Almost every member state of the UN General Assembly.

    HarryTuttle
    Full Member

    The sub was a Kilo class in dry dock that was hit by a Stormshadow.  It made a proper mess of the sub.

    hatter
    Full Member

    Russia is running at 1500 casualties per day, since the new offensive stared. Insanity.

    Rather grimly, if no dramatic break out can be achieved the best chance Ukraine has of surviving this war is to fall back to defensive line after defensive line, inflicting so many casualties in the process that eventually Russian society can no longer bear it and either military discipline breaks down or Putin is ousted.

    Bahkmut and Avdiivka were horrific slog fests, but they produced hugely one-sided casualty figures in Ukraine’s favour.

    To quote Nathanael Greene after the Battle of Bunker Hill – “I wish [we] could sell them another hill at the same price”

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    That’s the way the war has been going for the last 8 months (whilst Ukraine has been waiting for the US military aid) trading small losses in territory for massive Russian losses in men and materiel. Casualties in this period have typically ranged from 700 to 1000 a day. Since the new offensive front, this has skyrocketed by 50%. Putin is now claiming the aim is to create a buffer zone (total BS obviously) – so it looks like the offensive has failed, and its scope will be scaled back. Massive victory for Ukraine if that’s the case!

    greyspoke
    Free Member

    “the Polynesian inhabitants”

    New Caledonia is in Melanesia. I don’t know if it has a disgruntled Polynesian faction.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    Massive victory for Ukraine if that’s the case!

    Actually a massive victory for Ukraine would be for Russian troops to piss off back to Russia (and that includes from Crimea).

    hatter
    Full Member

    Russia has been destroying bridges in the parts of Kharkiv oblast it’s taken, which strongly suggests this is an effort to draw Ukrianian forces away from elsewhere on the front rather than genuine attempt on the City of Kharkiv.

    However, had they fully broken through and had the road to Kharkiv laid wide open, I’m sure they would have pushed on.

    singletrackmind
    Full Member

    Probably to make retreat extra hard .
    Face the enemy and attack as you aren’t coming back the same way you came in.
    Those loss numbers are staggering if at all accurate.
    There can’t be many countries who could muster the sheer volume of mechanised equipment that the Russians have already lost , let alone men .
    It’s the toilets I really feel sorry for. Losing the cisterns would make installing working toilets pretty hard.

    timba
    Free Member

    Putin is now claiming the aim is to create a buffer zone (total BS obviously) – so it looks like the offensive has failed, and its scope will be scaled back.

    He wanted a buffer zone two months ago. It’s normal that politicians pursue personal goals during war, whether it’s a democracy or not. It was part of his acceptance speech on the day that he was re-elected President.

    It was never intended as an offensive breakthrough with a strategic advantage because of the terrain and a lack of both armour and experienced troops. Dropping bridges behind them only reduced the possibility of extended logistics in the event of a breakthrough.

    What it does achieve is stretching Ukraine’s forces out more thinly to either facilitate a later offensive or wait out the US elections in November while under less pressure

    DT78
    Free Member

    i dont get the toilet joke ?!

    jamiemcf
    Full Member

    Not much I can contribute to this thread but driving down to Peebles today, youngest spotted a plane trail and asked where it was going.

    Well I followed it and somewhere over Poland it disappeared.  Hopefully a plane full of supplies. Looking at the plane photos there is a lack of windows.

    Screenshot_20240518-114516~2

    singletrackmind
    Full Member

    Tanks — 7560 (+13)
    Armored fighting vehicle — 14595 (+43)
    Artillery systems — 12639 (+36)
    MLRS — 1071
    Anti-aircraft warfare — 801 (+1)
    Planes — 354 (+1)
    Helicopters — 326
    UAV — 10108 (+35)
    Cruise missiles — 2203 (+3)
    Ships (boats) — 26
    Submarines — 1
    Cars and cisterns — 17169 (+65)
    Special equipment — 2075 (+6)
    Military personnel — aprx. 491080 people

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