thats the first time its been stated ukraine can use western weapons inside russia isn’t it.

It’s occasionally a mixed message…

James Heappey, a defence minister, said something similar in 2022 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61226431

I’m pretty sure that Ben Wallace has as well, although he also said, “Their use of Storm Shadow will allow Ukraine to push back Russian forces based within Ukrainian Sovereign Territory.” https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/defence-secretary-oral-statement-on-war-in-ukraine–3

That article about all the political infighting is interesting, I wonder if that could be a catalyst for loosing the war if one of the major political departments tries a coup and loads of miliary gets quickly withdrawn, either for attack or defence, (or both).

Not entirely implausible as was seen with the Wagner lunatics, does Putin really has the influence to keep everyone in check if it really kicked off?

The ever excellent Steve Rosenberg

I would not do that man’s job for all the tea in China. I mean I know he’s probably out of Putin’s grasp, but seriously, how much must his insurance cost…There’s no way I’d be western media living in Moscow being critical of Putin’s regime. To misquote Rob Warner; how does that man sit down..?

have the US changed thier stance?

Again, I’ve seen both, in response to a question about firing ATACMS at Russia, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said, “So it up to them on how and when to use it, and our hopes are that they’ll create some pretty good effects with that and other things.” https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3758232/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-and-air-force-general-charles-q-brown-j/

I’ve also seen it reported differently, even the day before Jake Sullivan said, “snip…provide Ukraine with a “significant” number of ATACMS missiles for use inside Ukrainian territory — against Russian invaders.” https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-secretly-long-range-missiles-ukraine-russian-invaders/story?id=109584125

Please tell me ATACMS is meant to sound like attack ’em.

Please tell me ATACMS is meant to sound like attack ’em.

If you check Wikipedia in about 5 minutes, you’ll find that it says exactly that.

Plural – Attack ‘Ems

Re:Steve Rosenberg.

Same with secunder kermani he used stand right next to the Taliban whilst reporting on them. Huge conkers.

10 min written article + optional podcast on the current situation in Ukraine by Phillips P. O’Brien.

It puts a sense of perspective back into the gloom and doom-mongering from certain media sources. It’s quite spread out, with maps, so keep scrolling…

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-79-the-lines-are-stabilizing

https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9bd-46f4-8a5c-9b2bdd3c3dd3?shareType=nongift

https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-c9bd-46f4-8a5c-9b2bdd3c3dd3?shareType=nongift

Paywalled 😞

https://archive.is/OLbv5

^ non paywalled version

For those who can’t see the FT article, it’s reported by ISW as well.

“The Financial Times (FT) reported on May 5, citing unspecified European intelligence officials, that Russia has been actively preparing “covert bombings, arson attacks, and damage to infrastructure” in Europe using its own forces and proxies.” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-5-2024

Russia and it’s allies have been involved in hybrid warfare for a while now, e.g. the damage to comms cables in the Baltic in September 2023, constant computer hacking, sending asylum seekers from Russia into the EU via Poland (etc) since 2021. The latest reports represent a step-up in severity with fires and other damage

The GPS jamming in the Baltic region has become a problem for airlines; some of the budget carriers have mistakenly landed at the actual city named in their advertising and not at some outpost with an hour coach transfer 🙂

They have been jamming GPS here in Finland ever since the start of the latest aggression. Along the border with Russia the jamming is a constant nuisance for all pilots. It started already before Finland applied for NATO membership. Such nice neighbours they are.

@mrauer everybody’s nightmare neighbours, you have our sympathy. I bet there are yappy dogs, loud music, mattresses & busted washing machines etc. all over their front lawn!

Although I gave to say I am very glad that your tough and resourceful country, with it’s history of standing up to Russia has joined us in NATO 👍

Personally I am not happy about needing to join NATO, I would have preferred for us to remain a neutral country, but under these conditions? Better to have someone to have our back, but I would still like to have an agreement that states “no nuclear weapons on Finnish terrain” but that remains to be seen – the specific agreements are still being worked out.

My late grandma always taught us the old saying (it dates back hundreds of years) “A russki is a russki, no matter if you fry them in butter”. From a period called “lesser wrath” and “great wrath” when russians made rape and pillage campaigns over the eastern parts of what is now Finland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Wrath

They sure have not changed. It is so sad to think that Russia has been doing this for hundreds of years now. This description could be straight from Bucha or any part of occupied Ukraine.

Brutalities
Mothers and fathers were tortured in front of their children and vice versa. Finns were hanged by their wrists with their hands behind their backs and exposed to freezing cold temperatures. Another commonly used torture method was to bake them in ovens. When a man named Esko Juhonpoika Eskonsipo returned to Oulunsalo in 1716, only a few of his acquaintances were alive and “they were also tortured until they were weak.” He found the corpses of children as well as tortured people languishing in pain, eventually dying from their injuries. According to Professor Kustaa H. J. Vilkuna [fi], many authentic sources depict the torture. It was not rare for females of any age to be raped and taken as long-term sex slaves. Children in particular were taken to Russia as prisoners.[14]

The main reason for the torture was to get information about Finns’ money stashes. Finns were forced to reveal the caches, and afterwards they were usually killed. Peter the Great had also twice ordered the destruction of the Northern Ostrobothnia into wasteland, making the conditions impossible for the Swedish army to live in. In Porvoo, corpses of the locals were put on display as early as 1708, some of which had their genitals burned. Typically, all the houses except the soldiers’ quarters were burned. Everyone in Kirkonkylä [fi] would be killed.[14]

Grim reading. Parts of it do seem to echo reports from Bucha. Also this resonates:

Children in particular were taken to Russia as prisoners.

Kidnap and Russification of Ukrainian children happening today on a massive scale 😕

I get why it was such a wrench for Sweden and Finland to give up their neutrality, and it would be a different, better world if it hadn’t been necessary. But in the circumstances? Putin left you with little choice. The irony is that for all his bluster about NATO expansion, he is the biggest cause of it.

Indeed. There was never a majority support for joining NATO before, but that changed instantly after what happened to Ukraine.

mrauer
Re joining Nato, maybe not so much lost more gained. Neutrality is a position or stance which has served well in past times. But having a neighbour that doesn’t respect or care about international law, agreements and treaties, international sovereign state borders and one which also lacks basic humanity, compassion and has previous form such as you describe…maybe NATO is needed at the moment.

So if the articles linked above are true, more Salisbury style Russki mir across Europe.

Another SU34 down.

Indeed. There was never a majority support for joining NATO before, but that changed instantly after what happened to Ukraine.

It’s almost as if, for better or worse, the Russain war against Ukraine has made a few people think..maybe we should form stronger millitary friendships with some of our neighbours, or we might be next.

Now, I’m not saying the Russians did this but…

MoD data breach: UK armed forces’ personal details accessed in hack

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68966497

Lucky I didn’t say it was the Russians. 😉

I think the chinese are responsible for the data hack https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68967805

Assassination attempt on Zelensky foiled, 👍

Shoigo sacked, probably a bad thing for Ukraine, considering how shit he was.

New front opened up by Russia near Kharkiv – 1700 losses for Russia, hopefully it will stall.

i saw some blaming the fact ukr wasnt allowed to use western weapons on russian soil for khakiv. apparently they could see them massing troops but werent able to disrupt.

The way the news reports are sounding its like ukr is only just holding on. focus is always on how many men russia has lost, ukraine must have lost a huge number too and jas far less capacity to replace them

i cant see f16s or whatever else making much difference if its manpower on the front lines they need

Indeed things are sounding rather grim.

We cannot, cannot let Russia win this. They will expand the mayhem and they will look to take more territory and Russify more adults and children.

I find the Phillips P. OBrien sub stack linked earlier in the thread very good for less “headline grabbing” commentary. His view is that while Russia is a making gains, in some cases it is as little as 500m in two weeks it is a desperate push to make progress before the American aid arrives and levels the playing field again

the American aid arrives and levels the playing field again

Is that before or after the Russians are crushed by Leopard tanks? Or blown to bits by ATACMS? Or shot to smithereens by F16’s?

Yes, recent news has been pretty depressing. I’ve been guilty of saying “it’s just incremental gains, here and there” but even though Ukraine is a huge country, they are starting to mount up. I agree with Matt above, Putin simply cannot be allowed to win this. Yes for Ukraine’s sake obviously, but for peace and security in Europe for years to come.

I really hope that Ukraine can hold the line until new kit starts to take effect. I hope that behind the scenes the UK and every other Western country with a stake in this is providing intelligence, technical assistance and whatever it takes to turn the tide. **** Russia, whatever happens in the war, even if (god forbid) they ‘win’ I hope it’s the undoing of them. Economically, demographically, strategically or whatever else.

its not just arms and artillery Ukraine is outmatched in, they have a long border and should have started drafting more troops sooner, even then Russia has a big advantage in soldiers

I was pondering the arrival of the F16s and what might happen if they are used to take down aircraft over Russia that launch the cruise missiles and glide bombs. This would actually be a good thing but I just wonder if there are operational limits imposed or, what the Russian response may be.

This would actually be a good thing but I just wonder if there are operational limits imposed or, what the Russian response may be.

it is also inevitable that some will get shot down, Russian air defence has proven effective at shooting down their own !  the f16s will be a tempting target for Russia, in the air and on bases,

I’m going to stick my neck out and say that Russia’s advances towards Kharkiv are intended to impose a Russian buffer zone as proposed by President “Putin raised the possibility of setting up a buffer zone during a speech after winning re-election on Sunday, a move the Kremlin said would be the only way to protect Russia from Ukrainian attacks” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-putins-buffer-zone-comment-is-clear-sign-looming-escalation-2024-03-18/

Further advances by Russia will be difficult although it might allow them to operate aircraft and artillery nearer to Ukraine’s territory, but with a 40 mile glide bomb range and cruise missiles that’s something of a moot point.

Artillery generally has a max range of 25 miles, although some gun/ammunition combinations and multiple rocket launchers can reach much further. To advance puts Russian guns inside Ukraine and within range/use of Ukraine’s western weapons.

A Russian advance stretches Russian logistics and shortens Ukraine’s logistics.

If you look at a satellite view of the area around the Russian positions then it’s mainly fields with some wooded areas and it won’t be easy to make further advances without armoured vehicles and combined arms. The current numbers of armoured vehicles and experienced troops on both sides will make this difficult. It’s also very easy to sow mines by artillery

Reports that Russia has destroyed bridges will only make their logistics more difficult, so I’m going with “buffer zone”

There will also be huge honors bestowed upon the first Russia unit to down an F16. The propaganda value will be vast.

3-4 months ago I was on here saying that 2024 will be a grim year of ‘hanging on’ for Ukraine and so far that’s kinda what it’s been. Hence why I’ve been a bit quiet of late.

After the glorious successes of late 2022 many seemed to think that we’d ‘done enough’ and that Ukrainian victory was at hand. 2023 and early 2024 showed that to be a lie and one of the few good things to come out of that period was a realization that this can’t be done by halves, we are either in this to win or we’re not. Over the last few months that lesson finally, finally seems to have sunk in, shame it took so much Ukrainian suffering to get there.

We’ve had just a tiny taste of what will happen if the West ‘loses interest’ and it seems to have sharpened minds considerably.

US aid is starting to arrive in theatre this week, the first F16’s are now due in weeks not months, The delivery of European material aid is forecast to ramp up considerably in the 2nd half of this year.

The new talk about removing the restrictions on how Ukraine uses Western weapons plus the talk of 300Bn of Russian assets frozen in Western banks being transferred to Ukraine also add to a general feeling that the West is finally ‘getting serious’ about this and gearing up for the long haul.

Good, I just feel bad for the Ukrainians having to sit and get shelled night and day whilst our politicians dithered.

its not just arms and artillery Ukraine is outmatched in, they have a long border and should have started drafting more troops sooner, even then Russia has a big advantage in soldiers

Yes, but this was considered politically unacceptable. Ukraine has finally strengthened its laws to draft troops after 1000s of amendments (4000 after only the first reading in February) and the law coincidentally becomes enforceable about now. Ukrainians now have 60 days to register

i saw some blaming the fact ukr wasnt allowed to use western weapons on russian soil for khakiv. apparently they could see them massing troops but werent able to disrupt.

I don’t think that it was any single issue and the advantage in this war continues to be with the defenders if they have the numbers and the kit

I don’t see F16 as a pancea, but who knows what Ukraine will achieve with them and I’m happy to be wrong

A series of dismissals and arrests amongst top Russian soldiers seems set to continue… https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-russia-general-kuznetsov-detained-defense-ministry-purge-ukraine/

Drafted is a nice way of saying conscripted.

Let’s not dress it up, they’re running out of bodies and all the subsequent ‘drafts’ from this point on, if they haven’t already, will start to scrape the bottom of the metaphorical barrel in terms of suitably fit and capable bodies.

Internally I imagine the planners are expecting a sharp rise in casualties and losses, all things associated with such conscription.

I hope they can rebalance or tip the scorecard in their favour sooner rather than later.