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  • Ukraine
  • kimbers
    Full Member

    Without enough soldiers, artillery & ammo Ukraine will be in trouble despite their success in the air.
    Being a russian pilot getting in your plane knowing that they’ve been losing 1 a day for 10 days must be sobering

    but it seems that Russia is getting bolder and attacking further over the frontlines, meanwhile Ukraine hasnt been resupplied in Patriot missile since Dlast year (f-ck the GOP)

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/27/10-shot-down-jets-in-10-days-russias-aerial-surge-in-ukraine-is-getting-more-of-its-pilots-killed/

    timba
    Free Member

    Ukraine is picking of high value and strategic targets bit by bit.

    The question is for how long? Without replacements/increases in air defences Ukraine will struggle, do they prioritise drone and missile attacks on cities or Russian aircraft? Do they move a limited number of launchers to the front lines or to the cities?

    And I presume these really old tanks appearing shows that despite making more new things than expected, Russia is running low on resource?

    Russia is able to import vastly more materiel than Ukraine, despite sanctions. There are various discussions about the quality of some of the artillery shells, for example, but drones, missiles and ammunition are getting through with monotonous regularity. Russian manufacturing alone isn’t replacing losses, despite being on a war footing, and as Russia is discovering you can’t import everything. If they had armoured vehicles in reserve then they could have followed the capture of Avdiivka up by rapid manoeuvring and really caused the retreating Ukraine forces some problems

    I’ve said before that Ukraine can’t fire promises and unfortunately Europe is full of them; they should have delivered 1mn shells by now and haven’t. The collective “west” has had two years to sort itself out and hasn’t

    IMHO Russian strategy is clinging on and hoping for Donald Trump to be elected. The US aid package is critical

    crossed with kimbers

    scuttler
    Full Member

    Interference in the US election gonna be off the scale 😬

    timba
    Free Member

    There’s an article here from 2022 that underlines Donald Trump’s approach to politics. He seems to be in transactional business mode, “you provide this and I’ll provide that” and doesn’t see much beyond. It also partly explains his antipathy to aid for Ukraine

    “Charles Kupperman, then serving as deputy national security adviser, accused his former boss of being incapable of understanding global politics and the importance of Ukraine. For him, Kupperman said, it was all personal.” https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-thrown-into-rage-by-subject-of-ukraine-former-aide-2022-4?r=US&IR=T

    It isn’t a long article and is worth two or three minutes. Charles Kupperman issued a lawsuit against subpoena in Trump’s 2019 impeachment and didn’t give evidence, so this is an interesting insight. The Republican-heavy US Senate acquitted Trump on that occasion

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    Another SU34 shot down 👍

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    What’s with the sudden flush of plane downings? Better tech / radar / new weapon?
    Russia flying more and more sorties?

    kimbers
    Full Member

    see the forbes article above

    Ukraine getting better/ braver at using patriots/Sam’s at the front and Russia attacking more over the battlefield (I suspect Putin is pushing for a big victory before his election)

    Unfortunately manpower & ammo shortages mean that Ukraine is going to really struggle against Russia throwing waves of men in the ground offensive

    alpin
    Free Member

    Another SU34 shot down

    Make that two for today!

    CountZero
    Full Member

    Ukrainian use of drones is becoming increasingly sophisticated, especially using ‘Baba Yaga’ drones controlling drone swarms to get greater range from kamikaze drones.

    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28771

    timba
    Free Member

    A Russian Pantsir S1 AD truck overturned in Sochi yesterday. Saves Ukraine’s forces a job… https://www.newsweek.com/video-shows-russian-air-defense-topple-over-minutes-after-putin-warns-nato-1874608  (C1 is the Russian language designation)

    Unpopular Chancellor Scholtz’s latest excuse for not sending Taurus cruise missiles is that German boots would need to be on Ukraine’s soil to program them.

    He annoyed the UK and France by implying that they had advisors in Ukraine programming ScalpEG and Storm Shadow, which was ill-timed with President Putin’s latest threats of “tragic” consequences should “western” troops be deployed there https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-olaf-scholz-slammed-claims-france-uk-help-ukraine-target-missiles/

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1331259/olaf-scholz-evaluation-as-chancellor-germany/

    alpin
    Free Member

    Supposedly another jet, a SU-34,was downed yesterday…..

    That’s 13 in two weeks.

    Sod being a Russian pilot.

    thols2
    Full Member

    Klunk
    Free Member

    I know there was some political advantage to doing it but it seems odd that the Kremlin broadcast it’s Luftwaffe infiltration, perhaps the Germans knew they’d been compromised and plugged the leak 😕

    timba
    Free Member

    snip…it seems odd that the Kremlin broadcast it’s Luftwaffe infiltration

    It’s not a great intelligence coup. The conversation was ill-advisedly held on a public video conference network, Webex, rather than an official secure network

    snip…perhaps the Germans knew they’d been compromised and plugged the leak 😕

    Germany has problems with some politicians and intelligence employees being affiliated with Russia. Some of those compromised have access to top secret info, e.g. Markus Reichel (2014), Carsten L, the head of a BND unit monitoring phones and internet, and Arthur E (both 2022) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66727785

    It suits Russia’s aim to influence western politicians, is in line with President Putin’s latest threats of “tragic” consequences and gives Chancellor Scholtz more reason not to supply Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine

    timba
    Free Member

    Newsmax, one of the most trusted conservative news outlet for Republicans, has joined the fray and asked for funding to go to Ukraine. US Speaker Mike Johnson and Donald Trump are being turned on by their most trusted media outlets…

    “Ruddy: Mike Johnson, Allow Vote on Ukraine Aid” (Christopher Ruddy started Newsmax and is an influential voice in US conservative media)

    “At the same time Israel is facing war on multiple fronts.
    Israel, like Ukraine, desperately needs funding.”
    https://www.newsmax.com/ruddy/ruddy-ukraine-speaker-mike-johnson/2024/03/03/id/1155754/

    alpin
    Free Member

    Can someone give a brief synopsis of the last three, rather cryptic, posts….?

    It’s late and I’ve had enough of the internet for one day.

    alpin
    Free Member

    But here’s an interesting article (use translate, mes amis) about why so many Russian jets are falling from the sky…

    https://www.geo.fr/geopolitique/ukraine-pour-abattre-en-masse-su-34-su-35-russes-kiev-pourrait-avoir-pirate-avionique-systemes-embarques-radars-contre-mesures-a-50-beriev-219082

    kimbers
    Full Member

    another one

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Incredible still that a country with no effective navy is taking out what was supposedly one of the most powerful navies in the world…

    kimbers
    Full Member

    timba
    Free Member

    Incredible still that a country with no effective navy is taking out what was supposedly one of the most powerful navies in the world…

    The Russian frigate Marshal Shaposhnikov docked in Qatar yesterday for the Doha International Maritime Defence Exhibition and Conference (DIMDEX 2024).
    Is a 39 year old ship (she’s been modernised a couple of times and caught fire once) the best that Russia could send?
    The status of Russia as the second largest arms exporter in the world must also be in serious doubt
    thols2
    Full Member

    timba
    Free Member

    The demise of the Sergey Kotov was forecast in July

    Sergey Kotov might not survive her foray into the southern Black Sea. In the meantime, however, she might be just enough of a threat to spook shipping companies and enforce a blockade of Ukraine’s grain ports.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/07/26/harried-by-ukraines-drone-boats-a-russian-navy-warship-goes-hunting-for-grain-ships/

    DrJ
    Full Member

    IMHO Russian strategy is clinging on and hoping for Donald Trump to be elected.

    Seems to be working so far. Probably a better strategy than Ukraine’s which is clinging on and hoping for a non-senile POTUS and a German Chancellor with morals and backbone.

    timba
    Free Member

    Seems to be working so far. Probably a better strategy than Ukraine’s which is clinging on and hoping for a non-senile POTUS and a German Chancellor with morals and backbone.

    Phillips P. O’Brien and others write about the return of Cold War Disinformation and Reflexive Control “a Soviet concept for conveying specific information to a target to induce a predetermined decision, which is the theoretical underpinning for Russian influence and information operations.” https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/document/15364-diane-chotikul-soviet-theory-reflexive

    Some people, like Chancellor Scholtz, are susceptible. Others, like Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, aren’t taken in. She was the first “western” leader to be placed on Russia’s wanted list and continues to be forthright, e.g. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-help-estonia-prime-minister-kaja-kallas/

    gobuchul
    Free Member

    The Russian Navy has always been a bit of a paper tiger.

    It was bad in Soviet times and has got worse since.

    Have a read up on the state of their “aircraft carrier”.

    “Current projections are that the overhaul of the carrier will last into 2024.[12][77][86] “Ship repairmen warned the military that the condition of Admiral Kuznetsov does not allow it to be deployed due to the high probability that it would sink or capsize. During the examination, it was revealed that the metal structures below the third deck of the ship were significantly corroded. The holds are filled with muddy water, which makes it impossible to examine the ship in detail from the inside.””

    DrJ
    Full Member

    Some people, like Chancellor Scholtz, are susceptible. Others, like Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, aren’t taken in.

    Thing is, Scholz has loads of weapons he could send; Kallas doesn’t. So what she thinks is neither here nor there.

    timba
    Free Member

    Simon Jenkins seems to be susceptible to reflexive control too,

    “An intercepted meeting on sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine suggests the west is on the brink of a risky and futile escalation”

    “Instead Ukraine has come to seem ever more like a Nato mercenary for western generals wanting to boost their budgets and relive the cold-war games of their youth” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/mar/05/nato-ukraine-russia-germany-military-leak

    I think he’ll find that Ukraine is fighting for its very existence and has reached the bottom of European arms reserves

    Western Europe has no conceivable interest in escalating the Ukraine war through a long-range missile exchange…snip…it has no strategic interest in Kyiv’s desire to drive Russia out of the majority Russian-speaking areas of Crimea or Donbas.

    It isn’t an escalation, it makes more rearward areas of occupied Ukraine open to the disruption of Russian materiel and logistics that are supporting Russia’s invasion.

    Crimean airfields, ships and the Kerch bridge are all legitimate targets and most certainly are of strategic interest, which is why Russia has had forces in Sevastopol since 1783

    timba
    Free Member

    Thing is, Scholz has loads of weapons he could send; Kallas doesn’t.

    Practically speaking, but that isn’t for want of trying:

    So what she thinks is neither here nor there.

    What a strange thing to say. Without her mindset and contributions Ukraine would be worse off

    faustus
    Full Member

    Admiral Kusnetsov is a complete dog. It also keeps catching fire. Interestingly, China’s two carriers are based on the Kusnetsov. First one is built from the uncompleted hull of it’s sister ship (Left unfinished in Ukraine when Soviet Union collapsed), second one is a ‘new’ one built from the same design. Nothing to bother a nuclear powered US carrier!

    Ukraine’s naval strategy is a very good one, as Russia can’t easily replace the lost ships like-for-like due to the restrictions from the Montreux convention on the Turkish Straights. So Russia either has to build new ones in a black sea shipyard, or transport small vessels via inland waterways. I’d imagine the latter would be incredibly risky, providing a sitting duck target for long range weapons or behind the lines drones.

    Andy
    Full Member

    Incredible still that a country with no effective navy is taking out what was supposedly one of the most powerful navies in the world…

    Ukraine has an incredibly effective navy, just not in our traditional Aircraft carrier way of thinking. This is becoming a bit like UK Battleships v Japanese airpower at the start of WW2.

    That Sergey Kotov is one of the newest Russian ships so a big loss because of its advanced radar more than its missile launchers. More Ukraine chess moves to blind Russia?

    gobuchul
    Free Member

    But from the footage that “Advanced Radar” didn’t seem very effective.

    My guess is that it wasn’t working and/or operated correctly.

    Andy
    Full Member

    Didnt the attack happen at the same time as an airborne drone attack, so probably planned that way, so boat was looking up for drones?

    hatter
    Full Member

    Perun did a very interesting video on the economics of the war and it’s sustainability this week.

    TLDR:

    • Both parties are tired but not exhausted and both are a long way from achieving their stated goals so we can expect no negotiated peace in the short-medium term.
    • Reduced European arms stocks and the log-jam in Congress has temporarily handed Russia the material advantage.
    • They are however, still burning through their Soviet era reserves at a incredible rate.
    • Putin has also burned through over half of the entire Russian sovereign wealth fund and is emptying it faster every month due to the weakness of the Ruble and the fact many of their suppliers now want paying in Gold.
    • By the end of 2024 enough European and NATO production will have come on online that the material advantage should swing back towards Ukraine as Russian’s stockpiles dwindle.
    • 2024 is likely to  be very tough for Ukraine, especially if the useful idiots in Congress continue to hold up aid.
    • But if they can hold out, all trends point to the pendulum swinging back their way in 2025.
    kimbers
    Full Member

    But from the footage that “Advanced Radar” didn’t seem very effective.

    My guess is that it wasn’t working and/or operated correctly.

    is the problem, not that these drones are so low profile, they cant be distinguished from the waves?

    Ill ask my brother -in-law if his ship ever gets back from the red sea

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    They’ll have to surround ships with massive cope cages 🫣

    dissonance
    Full Member

    They’ll have to surround ships with massive cope cages

    Nothing new there.

    Ship mounted torpedo nets got invented not long after the torpedo and were used on and off up until the end of WWII.

    Royal navy ship with one.

    gobuchul
    Free Member

    I have never operated a military radar.

    I have operated a lot of different marine civilian radars.

    A good set up can detect quite small targets, fishing floats, small boats etc. Yes if the sea is rough it makes a massive difference to what you can see but even with those sets, the skill and experience of the operator can make a massive difference.

    In the video, the sea is pretty calm. I would expect to see a target off that size on a “normal” radar. However, for a target system to track it and destroy it, who knows?

    I would think they would lose track of them once they get close and in their radar blind sectors.

    Also, maybe their radars are primarily air defence?

    All just guesses on my part.

    Andy
    Full Member

    I agree with that. Similar civilian radar experience,  which I guess are nothing near as good as what that ship was supposed to be carrying. The sea drones are semi-submersible though and seem to be incredibly successful. Attack was 3-400 miles away from their base as well.

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