Viewing 40 posts - 18,041 through 18,080 (of 18,671 total)
  • Ukraine
  • hatter
    Full Member

    Another A-50!!!

    Losing one is supposed to be a once in a blue moon screw-up on a biblical scale, to lose 2….

    It’s not just the kit, it’s the fact that these are basically a flying military intelligence bases and usually packed to bursting with officers and their most highly skilled personnel.

    By my calculations they will only have 3 of these left operational.

    1 will be needed to cover Vladivostok, so that leaves 2, 1 if they want to cover the Baltic as well.

    Ukraine continues to tick off boxes on the big ‘I want to go on the offensive using air assets’ check list.

    slowoldman
    Full Member

    Who’s threatening Vladivostok?

    hatter
    Full Member

    It’s across the water from both the USA and Japan, there’s no way Russia’s doctrine will allow them to leave that flank uncovered.

    Also… would you trust the Chinese?

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Ukraine continues to tick off boxes on the big ‘I want to go on the offensive using air assets’ check list.

    That does seem to be the direction of travel…

    We just really, really need the wider military supplies or US and others to kick in.

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Also… would you trust the Chinese?

    The president of China doesn’t trust the Chinese. 👍 Hence the massive surveillance and constant purges.

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Just reading some more – a few rumors/suggestions that this may be air to air missiles….

    ….from F16…

    🤔

    hatter
    Full Member

    If it is the first use of the F16’s then that’s a more than acceptable debut but I doubt it, I reckon we have at left another 3 months before we see those.

    If I was to place a bet right now I’d say it was another victim of Ukraine’s recent wheeze when they sneak a patriot battery right up to the front and switch it on in an area where the Russians think their air assets are safe, down a plane then scarper.

    It’s a gloriously offensive way to utilise something that was donated for ‘defence’ and a wonderful bit of lateral thinking but its certainly effective. I’m sure the NATO field manuals are being updated as we speak.

    doris5000
    Full Member

    Do they have that kind of range though? It’s some 160 miles from the front, iirc?

    hatter
    Full Member

    Officially up to 180 KM depending on which version of the missile they’re using. Unofficially… who knows?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot

    kimbers
    Full Member

    unconfirmed atm

    thols2
    Full Member

    Well, that’s a shame.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    It strikes me that despite the relatively static front line, Ukraine is ‘winning’ elsewhere. No, we did not see the breakthrough that everyone hoped for on the ground last year. But in terms of asymmetric warfare elsewhere, Ukraine has the upper hand it seems to me. Clever tactical use of limited AD assets to destroy high value Russian kit like AWACS and dozens of their best fast jets. Surface drones to sink multiple warships and a submarine. The Kerch bridge attack and sabotage attacks across Russia. Even attacks on Wagner in Africa. All this is hurting and embarrassing Russia. I’m sure they’ve got more innovative stuff up their sleeves too. I hope so.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    that steel plant damage will hurt the Russian arms industry

    The Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (Russian: Новолипецкий металлургический комбинат) is a Soviet and Russian metallurgical plant located in the Left Bank district of Lipetsk. The largest steel plant in Russia and the 17th in the world in terms of production in 2018.[1]

    Even attacks on Wagner in Africa.

    This has been really interesting. UKR doing an impressive job of force projection as you say.

    Re the UKSF blocking ANSF applications, always in the fence about these things. Very easy to throw stuff into the public arena about those sorts as they usually refuse any sort of comment.

    But Johnny Mercer has been critical of them, the MOD and Wallace re being left exposed when answering questions in the house, seems they all knew about allegations of UKSF targeting fighting aged males irrespective of hostile action and let him issue denials regardless.

    Don’t know if the smoke is from that particular fire, but there’s something off about the whole thing.

    As a side and as uncomfortable as it may be for some they do operate in a very different place to conventional forces and having former allies living in the UK who are under no restrictions to speak might lift a lid on that world, an exposure they’d want to control irrespective if actions were legal or illegal.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Agree. On the face of it, it does seem a bit shit, but these things are always more complex than a media snapshot suggests. There is an element too of some organisations (like SF) not being able to tell their side of the story due to all sorts of sensitivities, so we get a skewed view of the reality.

    Having said that, I am very uncomfortable (to say the least) about the earlier reporting alleging very questionable targeting. There is a definite whiff of something unpleasant, but like most of us I don’t have enough info to draw any firm conclusions. I just hope they do everything possible to investigate and if the worst allegations are proven to hold people to account. For justice most importantly but also to restore reputation, effectiveness and morale.

    Apols for going off topic, bit of a side discussion with RM which I started. Back to Ukraine…

    singletrackmind
    Full Member

    What do we think they used to hit the steelwork factory with?
    Storm Shadow?
    Glide bomb?
    Drone. Attacks?
    Special Forces operating locally?
    I’m not totally convinced fast jets will make a big impact. They will help but against a large , dug in force , clearing the enemy is a big ask .

    dantsw13
    Full Member

    The biggest role for F-16 is keeping the VKS back from their glide bomb operations on the front line.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    An interesting bit of crystal ball gazing into what might happen in the war over the coming year, with an optimistic and pessimistic scenario.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    depressing reading here tbh

    PJM1974
    Free Member

    Losing one is supposed to be a once in a blue moon screw-up on a biblical scale, to lose 2….

    It’s not just the loss of hardware.  The Beriev A50 requires a crew of fifteen mostly highly trained people, replacing them is going to take years.

    It’s easy to think that it’s simply a case of replacing hardware, but the dwindling subject matter expert human capital resource isn’t easy to fill.  Remember that in one month Russia has lost thirty key AWACS crew and their combined experience.

    Honestly, I hate the very idea of war and loss of life.  One day someone will declare a war and noone will be bothered to turn up.

    retrorick
    Full Member

    I thought the same recently regarding the planes destroyed and the loss of their trained crew. Will there be a point where experienced pilots and crew become a problem rather than a loss of hardware?

    kimbers
    Full Member

    smoothtalent
    Free Member

    Anyone seen the video of American mercenaries captured by the russians? It is doing the rounds on twitter. Why anyone who doesn’t need to be there would go there is beyond me.

    doomanic
    Full Member

    Got a link?

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    Likewise.. as a follower of Forward Observation Group i’d be interested.

    piemonster
    Full Member

    Just pick ANY russian propaganda account on Twitter…

    Try Megatron_ron

    Looks staged AF to me with some other footage added in,but as theres no way to identify who the prisoners are it could just be captured but unrelated footage.

    tthew
    Full Member

    Why anyone who doesn’t need to be there would go there is beyond me.

    Well if they are mercenaries,  presumably for money…

    timba
    Free Member

    https://hir.harvard.edu/the-latest-in-a-long-line-ukraines-international-legion-and-a-history-of-foreign-fighters/
    There are a variety of other reasons ranging from excitement, difficulty returning to “civvy street”, etc. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/18/foreign-fighters-war-ukraine-volunteers/

    Apply here… https://ildu.com.ua/ but it might be illegal

    alpin
    Free Member

    A video of Russians taunting and mock executing Ukr POWs.
    Grim.

    Last year in Spain I met a Belgian guy who was walking to Africa to go and help protect wildlife from poachers. He has spent something like eight months in Ukraine as a volunteer.
    Massive respect, but he was a bit of a lost soul looking for purpose in life. Childhood spent in and out of state care, no parents. He said he ended up driving trucks behind the front line due to lack of any military experience.

    Kind of a sad, yet uplifting guy….

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Seems Russia is also playing games with GPS all around the Baltic. Is this proving / testing what they are capable of? Training? Just being arseholes?

    https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2024/02/russian-jamming-now-messing-gps-signals-norwegian-aviation-practically-every-day

    bikesandboots
    Full Member

    No consequences for them for doing it, and that makes them look strong and the other side look weak.

    A bit like all the obvious lying.

    timba
    Free Member

    Re: jamming GPS, probably NATO ex Steadfast Defender, Google Quadriga 24.
    Possibly aimed at disrupting that; provides NATO with realistic conditions, intel and good training

    Russia has permanent GPS jamming around various sites such as the Kremlin; local drivers on GPS love it!

    timba
    Free Member

    Russian Chief of the General Staff, General Gerasimov has reappeared in public; he hadn’t been seen since December and was rumoured to have been killed in the 4th Jan strikes on Crimea.*
    While this would have been a propaganda coup, his death would have been a blow to Ukraine

    “Not only did Shoigu and Gerasimov plan and conduct the invasion of Ukraine with monstrous incompetence, recklessness and indifference to civilian deaths and suffering, but since they have both held their present positions since 2012, they bear direct personal responsibility for the logistical chaos, lack of coordination, and generally lamentable condition of the Russian armed forces.” Anatol Lieven June 2023 https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/06/25/putin-disastrous-but-indispensable-for-the-system-he-created/

    In July 2023 he sacked Major-General Popov, the leader of the one of the strongest Russian units in Ukraine, because Popov made strong representations about leadership failing their forces https://www.dw.com/en/russian-general-dismissed-after-criticizing-leadership/a-66237138

    *https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-26-2024

    alpin
    Free Member

    Blow to Ukraine?

    You mean Russia?

    #confused

    nixie
    Full Member

    As in if dead some one more competent might fill the space!

    alpin
    Free Member

    Aha…. Makes sense in a roundabout kinda way.

    Supposedly another Russian jet has been downed and there are train loads of old T-62 tanks arriving in Crimea.

    thols2
    Full Member

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    It seems things are more and more asymmetric. In that Russia is focussed / more able to throw resources and men into mass ground operations, but Ukraine is picking of high value and strategic targets bit by bit.

    Long term will this leave the Russian ground forces ‘alone’ without cover from air or missiles?
    I assume provide opportunity for air and missiles to be increasingly possible and arrive on target?
    And I presume these really old tanks appearing shows that despite making more new things than expected, Russia is running low on resource?

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    Morning catchups on this thread….

    I’m thinking my Twitter feed is changing again. Russia MFA seem to be posting more about diplomatic meetings and alliances… maybe to do with the run up to Putins non-event reinstatement and turning the volume down on the war…

    Macron seems to have stirred things up with a suggestion of Nato peacekeepers and America, you really need to get your act together

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