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  • Ukraine
  • hatter
    Full Member

    I feel that Ukraine would have given it everything they had no matter what the West said or did.

    They know from bitter experience what a Russian conquest brings in its wake.

    And yes, **** the ‘I’m alright Jack’ isolationists and autocrat bootlickers in US that are tying Ukraine’s arms behind its back.

    I try to stay objective and analytical on this thread but there’s a special place in hell being kept warm for that lot, the sheer human misery their actions will cause is just vast.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    The current casualty rate in the Avdika zone is reckoned to be 10:1 in Ukraines favour. The main reason for it falling is that Ukraine is running low on artillery ammo, thanks to the MGA republicans, and probably to a Europe’s failure to ramp up its own artillery production.

    timba
    Free Member

    So they’ve given it everything, at great human cost and the like of Trump and GOP have utterly betrayed them.

    Ukraine was betrayed in 2014 when Russia ignored the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and the other signatories shared the US view that security assurances weren’t legally binding. International sanctions were pathetic and guaranteed business as usual on existing contracts with Russia.

    The major EU nations wouldn’t provide weapons, whereas the US did and, surprisingly, “However, it wasn’t until the Trump administration that the decision was taken to provide Ukraine with major defensive lethal weaponry” https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN07135/SN07135.pdf

    It all went wrong with then-President Trump’s first impeachment in 2019 when it was alleged that he attempted to pressure President Zelensky into dishing the dirt on Joe and Hunter Biden before the 2020 election. Trump sees that he has scores to settle, his need for vengeance must be worrying to all that are likely to experience it

    Pub quiz fact: Antony Blinken’s dad, Donald, was present during the Memorandum’s signing

    alpin
    Free Member
    hatter
    Full Member

    The Czech president reckons he’s found 800,000 artillery shells that he can deliver to Ukraine ‘within weeks’ if he can get partners to help fund it.

    The lack of info about the potential source makes me suspect its from a country currently trying to stay neutral. I suspect Egypt though.

    Artillery shells are probably the most urgently needed items for Ukraine right now so if this is true(and Pavel seems a fairly no nonsense guy) it could be fairly pivotal. The lack of them.has been cited as a major reason behind recent withdrawals.

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    Make that 3 jets downed.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    i think it was 3 yesterday and another 1  last night

    alpin
    Free Member

    Even better!

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    👍

    thols2
    Full Member

    I think this is two more, not sure though.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    6 in 3 days!

    hatter
    Full Member

    Ukraine may not be getting enough artillery shells but her air defence teams are having a hell of a week.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    6 in 3 days!

    futonrivercrossing
    Free Member

    🥳

    hatter
    Full Member

    I’ve heard a rumor about where those 800,000 arty shells Petyr Pavel reckons he can get his mitts on may be coming from.

    I don’t want to say on here as it’s pure hearsay at this point, but if it is true and he pulls it off it will be glorious.

    kimbers
    Full Member

    America now saying long range Actams are being considered and they have artillery ready to go if & when the *@$!s in the GOP pass it

    bikesandboats
    Free Member

    https://english.radio.cz/president-pavel-czechia-has-found-possible-sources-ammunition-ukraine-8808818

    Don’t know anything of the source but it’s what came up when I googled Petr Pavel and ammunition.

    The Brussels-based Politico reported in early February that Czechia was looking into the possibility of acquiring ammunition from arms companies in countries such as South Korea, Turkey and South Africa.

    So maybe one of those?

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    South Africa.

    Tell me they are ancient Russian supplied shells…

    hatter
    Full Member

    Nope, none of those 3. All of those would be legit options if they had the shells available but that’s not the rumour I’ve heard.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Spit it out!

    thisisnotaspoon
    Free Member

    Tell me they are ancient Russian supplied shells…

    I assume anything is welcome and they have guns to fire it, but presumably old Soviet/Russian stocks would only work in old Russian/Soviet guns?

    What’s the difference in efficacy between old Russian guns Vs modern NATO kit with better aiming systems, guided shells etc.

    hatter
    Full Member

    Spit it out!

    O.K. O.K.

    Looks like a few of the OSINT accounts and NCD have picked up on it now so it’s a bit more public now… so…..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasna_ammunition_depot

    As I said, this is seriously sketchy info, hence my reticence. I have zero clue of the situation on the ground or of how Pavel reckons he can lay his hands on this kit..but it’s there and it’s tantalizingly close to the Ukrainian border.

    A few bribes here, a few promises of EU passports there…..

    Explains why he needs money to make it happen but is promising almost immediate delivery if he can get the funding lined up.

    Ukraine still has huge numbers of Soviet era artillery pieces, they’ve largely fallen silent in the last year due to lack of ammo and were moved back into reserve as Western systems arrived. However; if they can get 800,000 152mm shells for them….

    alpin
    Free Member

    How is Russia keeping control and supplying Transnistria given it is isolated between Ukraine and Moldova?

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    That’ll be some stunt if he pulls it off. This stood out from the Wiki link though:

    Currently, it is guarded by around 1,500 Russian soldiers.

    Transnistria is already a tinderbox without someone trying to loot a shit load of Russian hardware!

    Andy
    Full Member

    Cobasna will be ex Soviet 152mm shells.
    Pavel is talking about obtaining half a million rounds of 155-millimeter caliber ammunition and 300,000 rounds of 122-millimeter caliber ammunition.

    hatter
    Full Member

    I go out of my way to say it was tenuous.

    Would be a hell of a wheeze to pull off though.

    timba
    Free Member

    Currently, it is guarded by around 1,500 Russian soldiers.

    It’s believed that the force is mainly Transnistrian locals who have been given Russian passports and only around 100 officers are Russians. The force is split into “peacekeepers” and the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF)

    OGRF are there illegally and get away with it by guarding the former-Soviet, now Russian stores. Access is either via Ukraine (closed) or via Chisinau (Moldova) airport, which only allows limited movements of the “peacekeepers”. Consequently their military resources are old and in short supply.

    I can only imagine that a part of the stores belong to the former-Czechoslovakia in one of its several identities, I’m not sure how viable they’ll be though

    oldnpastit
    Full Member

    What is wrong with the GOP? Why are they so obsessed with appeasing Putin? Has Putin really managed to buy them all?

    timba
    Free Member

    How is Russia keeping control and supplying Transnistria given it is isolated between Ukraine and Moldova?

    Energy supplies traded for other supplies. Moldova doesn’t have any fossil fuels and produces only 1/4 of the necessary electricity. Energy needs are met by Ukraine (liable to disruption), Romania and Transnistria (Russian fossil fuels and power station). The Russian supply is deliberate divide and conquer from decades ago, as is the 500,000 mostly Russian-speaking population of Transnistria

    Andy
    Full Member

    Has Putin really managed to buy them all?

    Putin has some kind of influence on Trump, the rest of the GOP are falling into line behind Trump and following his line.

    timba
    Free Member

    What is wrong with the GOP? Why are they so obsessed with appeasing Putin? Has Putin really managed to buy them all?

    I don’t think that’s the case. The US Senate voted overwhelmingly for aid to Ukraine, including 22-ish Republicans (aka GOP).

    The MAGA-group, heavily influenced by Donald Trump, is the minority causing problems. The US Speaker Mike Johnson (Rep) has broken the House of Representatives up until the end of Feb without voting on Ukraine aid, following foot-dragging such as the Russian nukes in space saga

    timba
    Free Member

    I don’t know why it hasn’t been done but Presidential Drawdown Authority is an option…

    Use of Presidential Drawdown Authority for Military Assistance for Ukraine

    Assuming this is up to date then $6.2bn is lawfully available now. The problem is that funding isn’t available to top stocks back up, but a bit of creative thought should be possible

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    oldnpastit
    Full Member
    What is wrong with the GOP? Why are they so obsessed with appeasing Putin? Has Putin really managed to buy them all?

    As Andy said, they are just standing behind Trump as he *is* the GOP now. They are just asking for the ride/ grift.

    I personally don’t think Putin has dirt on Trump. I think it’s simply that Trump genuinely likes Putin’s hard man persona and absolutely would like to impose an Americanised version of his rule in America. They both have a history of only liking elections when they go their way…

    The fact that Trump’s supporters in the land of the free would actively like it too, I find stunning. However, you can tell what the appeal is to the MAGA lot. Gays, blacks “socialists”, the “woke mob”… They would absolutely like them all locked up or worse. Putin’s their guy basically.

    America Greatest Generation must be spinning in their graves.

    Currently, it is guarded by around 1,500 Russian soldiers

    Mate, insurgents in Iraq used to breach the COB all the time and pilfer the ammo compound, sometimes all you need is the enemies incompetence for you to succeed, not your skill. An ole RU has show it has a lot of that to go around.

    America Greatest Generation must be spinning in their graves.

    The amount of my generation of friends and acquaintances from the US have very severe misgivings about the current hold-ups. We already felt like we abandoned the Afghans to an oppressive fate, now many veterans and active duty feel that some in the senate are doing it again.

    It doesn’t sit well at all.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    We already felt like we abandoned the Afghans to an oppressive fate, now many veterans and active duty feel that some in the senate are doing it again.

    It doesn’t sit well at all.

    It’s a nightmare.  I desperately hope the orange shit-gibbon doesn’t get back in.  A previous generation, but I also have a fair few US mil acquaintances and they are all despairing of the current situation.

    On a different subject, what’s your take on the news today about UKSF being given a veto over which ANA SF could resettle in UK?

    On a different subject, what’s your take on the news today about UKSF being given a veto over which ANA SF could resettle in UK?

    Just catching up on this, let me ruminate and do a little more reading before I commit to comment.

    ElShalimo
    Full Member

    ITV now

    Sean Langan on the Russian side of the front line…. depressing

    Ukraine’s War: The Other Side

    hatter
    Full Member

    A salient reminder that even if we throw in the towel and throw Ukraine to wolves, this won’t be ‘over’ an emboldened Russia will be seeking vengance and any Public figure who ever assisted Ukraine will be in the crosshairs, wherever they are.

    nickc
    Full Member

    What is wrong with the GOP? Why are they so obsessed with appeasing Putin?

    Amongst the right wing “mainstream” Alternative Media landscape which many Republican voters are tuned into (Tucker Carlson, Info Wars, Daily Wire and so on) Putin is portrayed as the sort of autocratic Christian supporting tough-man that the US needs. In their telling, he (Putin) does what he wants, has clear goals, and doesn’t care what other think about that, supports traditional families, enacts laws against gay or trans-rights, and promotes Christianity over other religions (especially Judaism and Islam) and is currently fighting the corrupt  “Nazis” that Hunter Biden tried to do a deal with.

    The GOP needs those folks to come out to vote for them, so parrots their views back to them, especially Trump, who additionally needs their money

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