• This topic has 19,069 replies, 528 voices, and was last updated 9 hours ago by timba.
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  • Ukraine
  • timba
    Free Member

    The Republican majority has fallen from 5 to 3, if 2 Republicans vote with Democrats, that’s a majority.

    There are timing issues as well. One Rep is off with long-term health problems, another was in a car crash (literal, not political); (real) examples of what can change a vote

    Still too early to be holding your breath :)

    DT78
    Free Member

    These swarming naval drones are making large ships look very vulnerable.

    I’m sure the boffins are working hard on solutions – surely those gattling cannon AA things I’ve seen in the past could take them out, or was that old tech and replaced with expensive missles?  Or something that could blind the cameras / knock out the communications so they can’t be piloted.

    Imagine if the houtis were to get there hands on this tech – if they can take out warships, tankers and freighters will be a piece of cake.

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    One Rep is off with long-term health problems,

    Im sure BBC mentioned that one was wheeled in wearing a hospital gown….

    kimbers
    Full Member

    what’s worrying is that if russian warships cant stop these drones, what happens when Iran/ houthis get them?

    edit : What’s dt78 said!

    my BILs ship is currently patrolling for houthi drones & missiles in the red sea, will be interesting to hear his thoughts

    bikesandboats
    Free Member

    BBC reporting on the Caesar Kunikov being sunk https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68292602.

    I thought it was interesting how I never saw the BBC report on the Ivanovets being sunk though, seemed pretty confirmed since there was a video of it sinking but perhaps not confirmed enough for them or not a big enough story?

    Edit : BBC have mentioned the Ivanovets briefly at the bottom of the article on the Caesar Kunikov.

    alpin
    Free Member

    Interesting…. The video of this latest naval done attack. You don’t see any bullets hitting the water like in the previous sinking. Does that mean the Russians were completely clueless that they were about to be sunk?

    I would have thought that radar or whatever the ships use would be able to pick up something the size of a jetski or small speedboat.

    Once the Houthis get hold of this tech we’re in WW3 territory. Makes US and UK support of Isreal seem foolish.

    Saying that, one of the main pipelines in Iran is currently burning.

    As an aside…. Did anyone see the Ukraine Special Forces taking out Wagner mercenaries in Africa?

    1
    hatter
    Full Member

    This is the kind of small, fast moving craft that the frankly terrifying Phalanx CIWIS systems on US and many NATO ships are for. The US has been pretty sharp on this kind of thing since the USS Cole incident in Y2K and I’d bet good money that these systems are already being tweaked with suicide USV’s in mind.

    Russia hasn’t really faced this kind of threat before and their close-in systems clearly aren’t sufficient, they have some catching up to do.

    Obviously civilian shipping is a whole different matter.

    thols2
    Free Member

    I would have thought that radar or whatever the ships use would be able to pick up something the size of a jetski or small speedboat.

    The very obvious thing is to send multiple drones from different directions at once. The radar systems may be limited in how many targets they can track and engage at the same time.

    gobuchul
    Free Member

    On the drone footage, you can see that they are shooting at them, just not hitting.

    The state of the Russian Navy is good.

    Maybe the radars are not operated or maintained very well?

    From looking on the web, a similar UK RFA ship has Phalanx cannon fitted. These are “stand alone” and have their own sensors. They can fire 75 rounds per second, so you would think they would be able to sink a relatively slow drone.

    According to wiki, the latest upgrades in 2015, were to improve the system against small surface targets.

    bikesandboats
    Free Member

    Have read online that the Ceasar Kunikov was named after Tsaezar Kunikov who died on February 14th 1943. Could be a co-incidence or Ukraine showing that they can do this whenever they want. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsaezar_Kunikov

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    The Russian navy is apparently celebrating another new submarine joining the fleet.

    Good good.

    1
    hatter
    Full Member

    The very obvious thing is to send multiple drones from different directions at once. The radar systems may be limited in how many targets they can track and engage at the same time.

    The US Aegis naval system has a publicly stated ability to track and engage 100 objects at once, considering that the US tends to drastically underplay the true capabilities of their systems publicly the true classified number of objects it can simultaneously engage is likely to be ‘lots.’

    To any Iranian proxies reading this, I suspect you will have to do more than just send 101 missiles or drones at them.

    This is one of those areas of expertise where the US is so far ahead of the rest of the world its’ almost funny.

    thols2
    Free Member

    The US Aegis naval system has a publicly stated ability to track and engage 100 objects at once

    According to Wikipedia, the Russian ships have two 30 mm Gatling guns, which means they can engage two targets at once. They can fire 5,000 rounds per minute, but only have 2,000 rounds of ammo, so 24 seconds worth. If you send in some aerial drones first to deplete their ammo, then a swarm of sea drones, they just won’t have enough ammo to deal with them all.

    Whatever the case, in this instance, the drone got through and sank the ship.

    4
    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Somewhere in Moscow this morning:

    “Good morning Mr President! Good news from the navy. Due to magnificent and improved efficiencies, the cost of maintaining the navy has been reduced even further!”

    Putin: “Oh, for **** sake!”

    hatter
    Full Member

    This is where the tracking and targeting software and radar hardware make all the difference, if your system’s targeting is good enough that it only needs to let off a short burst and them move onto the next target it hugely increases the amount of incoming munitions you can deal with.

    Considering how much on the job training the land-based CRAM version has had in Afghanistan, shooting barrages of mortar shells out of the air I’d like to think they have this pretty dialled by now.

    The only reason the drone used in the Jordan attack that killed 3 US personnel got through was because the bases’ CRAM had been temporarily deactivated as one of their own drones was in the process of coming back home.

    I’m sure reports are being written and doctrines and algorithms updated to prevent this happening again even as we speak.

    Also…

    Could be a co-incidence or Ukraine showing that they can do this whenever they want.

    In the past Ukraine have shown that their intelligence networks in Crimea are very good at letting them know when a certain vessel is packed full of important supplies or personnel and hitting it then for maximum impact.

    I’d like to think this was what they’ve done again but obviously we won’t know this for a while.

    timba
    Free Member

    The US Aegis naval system has a publicly stated ability to track and engage 100 objects at once…snip

    When it works. The USS Gravely, an Aegis-equipped destroyer had to use CIWS at a mile to destroy a sub-sonic anti-ship missile in the Red Sea a fortnight ago. A mile at 600mph is a bit too close! https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/31/politics/us-warship-close-call-houthi-missile/index.html

    Iran does have modified torpedo type AUVs http://www.hisutton.com/Guide-To-Underwater-Attack-Drones.html

    2
    mashr
    Full Member

    Radar (I’d wager any radar) isn’t going to cut it against these low profile drones sailing in amongst the clutter of the waves. After USS Cole they started to integrate TI cameras onto Phalanx, specifically for small, fast threats from the water. If they Russians don’t have this sort of capability they’ll remain pretty vulnerable.

    Fairly easy to get fences in place for defence in harbour, not so much if at anchor

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    Good account of Ukrainian operations in… Sudan, as someone mentioned earlier. It really is total war.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

    1
    timba
    Free Member

    I’m interested in the report^^ from Russia that Ukraine attacked Russian civilian ships in the SW Black Sea at the weekend. If true that represents a massive range/forward-operating effort…Istanbul to Odessa is 400Nm

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-it-foiled-ukrainian-drone-attack-civilian-cargo-ships-black-sea-2024-02-10/

    rickmeister
    Full Member

    I wonder what it’s like having to wander in to tell Putin that another ship has been sunk…. I’m thinking a very aptly named “Downfall” scenario….

    singletrackmind
    Full Member

    There is a type 42 radar array at Qinetic near Portsmouth.
    I think I’m correct in saying it can track objects the size of a softball, moving at speed up to 5 miles away.
    So the technology is available for anti drone located and destroy defence, although it’s still radar so is cross section dependent and will always struggle with waves and differential between air and land if in motion at very low level.

    1
    argee
    Full Member

    Think the Russian ship was an old ship being used in the wrong role, easy target by the sounds of it for this type of attack, swarm drone attacks are the big thing these days, the UK have been working on countering them for a long time, as they’ve always been a threat due to Iran and others employing fast inshore attack craft attacks to try and overwhelm the defences. To overwhelm at Type 45, like we tend to deploy to hostile areas, you’ll need a lot of drones.

    It’s just depressing that this whole thing is still going on, there is no real end in sight, one side can’t give up, the other just don’t care about the cost.

    1
    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Attacking Wagner in Africa is ballsy and probably pretty unexpected by Moscow. It just gives the Kremlin another headache, will hopefully undermine their influence and give some sleepless nights to the Wagner thugs who probably thought they were on a bit of a jolly in the sun. It does seem that the drone attacks were mainly targeted against the local militia members rather than the Russians themselves – hopefully that will change.  Bringing pressure to bear on Russia outside Ukraine as well as inside has got to be to Ukraine’s advantage.

    1
    alpin
    Free Member

    swarm drone attacks

    From the video I saw of the recent attack it looks like there is at least more than one water drone…. Several angles. One is the craft that hit and a few angles of the explosion.

    It does seem that the drone attacks were mainly targeted against the local militia members rather than the Russians themselves –

    Drones? There’s a video of what I assume are Ukrainian soldiers with a few POWs, one Russian and a couple of black guys.

    matt_outandabout
    Full Member

    Seems some new weapons are in use.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Drones?

    Video of half a dozen or more drone attacks on vehicles carrying armed militia and a couple of static locations.

    There’s a video of what I assume are Ukrainian soldiers with a few POWs, one Russian and a couple of black guys.

    Not seen that.

    blokeuptheroad
    Full Member

    Seems I need to install an app to watch that which I don’t fancy but thanks anyway 👍

    pk13
    Full Member

    You can use reddit on the web or the app. Just don’t go down the Kanye West rabbit hole.

    sobriety
    Free Member

    If you replace the “www” of the web address with “old” you can view it in the old reddit webpage that doesn’t force you to log in.

    chestercopperpot
    Free Member

    Deep down you all know there is no plan to end this conflict.

    Drip feed and keep it going until Russia is weakened to the point of nonentity. That’s the goal!

    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    chestercopperpot
    Free Member
    Deep down you all know there is no plan to end this conflict.

    Drip feed and keep it going until Russia is weakened to the point of nonentity. That’s the goal!

    I have zero doubt that a diminished Russia will be a most welcome outcome for the US and NATO but I believe both organisations would prefer an all out win for Ukraine rather than a forever war. America told the world time after time that Russia was going to invade in the hope that Putin would back away from the precipice under the worlds gaze.

    I don’t think Ukraine will ever get all of territory back however, Russia is embedded like a tick now. Unless Putin falls (literally?) it will likely end with some sort of DMZ along whatever new fault line exists waiting to flare up again. Ukraine has proven to the world it will never be part of Russia’s sphere of influence ever again but at what a terrible cost.

    Ukraine should be given all of the seized Russian funds for rebuilding and will hopefully find a far better place for itself within the EU and NATO as Russia grows steadily weaker.

    chestercopperpot
    Free Member

    I don’t think Ukraine will ever get all of territory back

    Yup seems the most likely outcome.

    2
    thols2
    Free Member

    Deep down you all know there is no plan to end this conflict.

    The only way it will end is for Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory. Or do you mean no plan to take Russia’s side and force Ukraine to capitulate?

    1
    chestercopperpot
    Free Member

    The only way it will end is for Russia to withdraw from Ukrainian territory. Or do you mean no plan to take Russia’s side and force Ukraine to capitulate?

    Unfortunately it’s not a morality quiz.

    2
    timba
    Free Member

    Deep down you all know there is no plan to end this conflict.

    Ukraine’s plan is fairly simple, it ends when Russia has retreated behind internationally recognised borders.

    Russia has a plan too; the problem is that the two are incompatible

    1
    hatter
    Full Member

    I still think that this war can’t drag on forever, the intensity and rate of attrition is just too high.

    Either Ukraine’s western partners will lose interest or the Russian homefront will crack, whichever happens first will decide the outcome.

    I know there’s plenty of attention been paid to the former but there’s also plenty of cracks beginning to show in the latter, Russia is just furiously keeping those under wraps, understandably.

    Autocracies tend to look utterly implacable and immovable until one day they suddenly aren’t, if the Russian homefront does collapse it will happen very suddenly.

    Whilst I don’t think Russia will ever take all of Ukraine I do think a 2nd Trump presidency would almost ensure the Russia will keep what it currently holds.

    If Trump loses then I can’t see the Russian effort sustaining for another year at current levels. The Ukrainian will to fight is beyond doubt and if they get the kit they need I genuinely think they can push the Russians back out, maybe even back to the 2014 borders.

    One Ukrainian breakthrough or advance in the Spring and the whole narrative will be flipped on it’s head.

    Hence why Putin’s most important effort right now is ensuring Trump and his cronies get back in.

    1
    hatter
    Full Member

    Hearing increasing rumors that Adiivka may be about to fall.

    The fact we’re hearing about from Ukrainian sources ahead of time suggests a controlled withdrawal rather than a sudden collapse. I hope they can get an many people out of there safely as possible.

    It’s not unreasonable to conclude that the fresh leadership at the top of Ukraine’s military has decided that the defense there has run its course and it’s no longer worth the cost in men and materials.

    Estimates of Russian casualties around the town vary wildly but 30,000 seems ballpark this includes 214 confirmed tank losses, 10% of the total MBT’s Russia has deployed in the entire theatre.

    I’m sure we’ll see plenty of doom-mongering when this happens as it is strictly speaking a Ukrainian defeat/retreat but looking at the numbers I’m reminded of Nathanael Greene’s quip after the Battle of Bunker hill: “I wish we could sell them another hill at the same price”

    roverpig
    Full Member

    I’m no military expert, but I’ve got a horrible feeling that Ukraine will run out of men to fight and be forced to at least cede something to Putin that he can sell as a victory. Maybe there was a moment where Russia could have been defeated if we’d given Ukraine all they asked for, but the grim reality of a long drawn-0ut conflict is that Russia can afford to lose five men for every Ukrainian and still come out on top. We can give Ukraine lots of fancy tech, but we can’t give them boots on the ground.

    3
    Poopscoop
    Full Member

    I’m upset and p*ssed off by this state of affairs. Ukraine had and has the will to fight and was told we would back then all they way.

    So they’ve given it everything, at great human cost and the like of Trump and GOP have utterly betrayed them.

    At another level, it confirms to China than *when* it invades Taiwan there will be little push back and what there is won’t last. America will reap what it sews as will us unfortunately.

    The west will end up paying a high price for this betrayal but it’s nothing compared to what Ukraine is paying.

    F**** Trump and all his ilk.

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