Russia already has a couple of long-standing port agreements

Including Sevastopol.  Then they decided illegal annexation was cheaper and less hassle than leasing.

To be fair, after the experience of selling my old flat, I’d probably also consider an illegal and murderous invasion if it got me out of a Leasehold.

I wonder what caused those bomb failures? The lager ones looked like empty fuel tanks, maybe?

If your Google-fu is up to par you’ll find videos of the missile being launched/released.

I suspect most of those failures were during flight trials or just a coincidence that their wing had a camera in the cockpit at the moment of release…

That’s one of the videos you get dealing with safe separation and aircraft self damage from munitions, all of those were trials, and show the issues of the release window for munitions, i.e. they aren’t clearing the airflow of the aircraft, some of the failures were due to overloading on the wing/station, and showing structural failures.

Including Sevastopol. Then they decided illegal annexation was cheaper and less hassle than leasing.

…and hopefully by ending that agreement Putin has shot himself in the foot and will ultimately lose the naval base in Sevastopol. He remains a master strategist.

I wonder what caused those bomb failures? The lager ones looked like empty fuel tanks, maybe?

Probably the draught coming off the aircraft was too much to beer.

“snip…Xi’s troops would be in Taiwan by now”

Monday it was Vladivostok, today it’s Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, countries that were formerly in Russia’s sphere of influence.
“With its engagement, China has put itself at the forefront of the race for political influence and energy assets in the resource-rich region”
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-calls-stable-secure-central-asia-2023-05-19/

Take your eye off the ball for 3 days while you invade a neighbour and everything falls apart…

Friends without limits 🤷‍♂️😂

I’m generalizing hugely but Russia’s current trajectory looks like it can end 1 of 2 ways:

A: Putin clings on but Russia’s international isolation and social and economic decline increasingly means it becomes a Chinese vassal state in all but name. How the average Muscovite Russian squares this with their state-sponsored self-image as the last Bastion of White Christian civilization is another matter and almost guarantees further strife down the line.

B: Putin falls and with no obvious successor able to command all of Russian various Military organizations, PMC’s and Militias the resultant internal discord* consumes Russia, possibly to point of the the break up of the federation. Large swathes of Eastern Russia effectively become Chinese colonies.

*£5 says Kadyrov is the first to kick it all off in Chechnya.

With its engagement, China has put itself at the forefront of the race for political influence and energy assets in the resource-rich region

That could go either way, tbh.

History repeating itself- in the early 1900s Russia picked on “inferior” Japan and got beat leading to the first revolution.

*£5 says Kadyrov is the first to kick it all off in Chechnya.

I’m not sure on that one. He’s got a good thing going at the minute – live like a king, and all he has to do is bully a small country. No-one really bothers him. I’d bet if Putin falls, he’d be quietly hoping he can carry on as before.

My money would be on Prigozhin as the power-hungry loose cannon. There are other PMCs in Russia, but none half as big as Wagner.

Agree on the China stuff – Siberia is very interesting to watch. It’s already got a lot of Chinese people there pulling the economic strings, and as noted, China believes half of that area was unfairly pinched from them in that 1850s treaty (Russia, of course, believe that it was theirs all along, and China unfairly pinched it from them in that 1600s treaty).

Could definitely see the East of Russia being very much dominated by China in 10 years time.

Then they decided illegal annexation was cheaper and less hassle than leasing.

And, TBH, they were getting away with it just fine until last year when they thought they could take the lot.

“With its engagement, China has put itself at the forefront of the race for political influence and energy assets in the resource-rich region”

China only ever looks out for China. And a weak Russia is a huge opportunity for them. They will now be very active wherever they can be.

The optimist in me wants a ‘shock and awe’ Ukrainian offensive to lead to a huge collapse of the Russian forces. Sing the boats in Sevastapol, ensure there is absolutely no way a Russian aircraft can operate in Ukraine, and then just drive through the lines in multiple places with all the hardware they now have. Genuinely see the Russian’s running for their own border. And see the revolt against and removal of Putin.

But the pessimist sees months and months of slow grinding attrition and like 2014-22 a stalled front with sporadic scrapping.

The optimist in me wants a ‘shock and awe’ Ukrainian offensive to lead to a huge collapse of the Russian forces. Sing the boats in Sevastapol, ensure there is absolutely no way a Russian aircraft can operate in Ukraine, and then just drive through the lines in multiple places with all the hardware they now have. Genuinely see the Russian’s running for their own border. And see the revolt against and removal of Putin.

But the pessimist sees months and months of slow grinding attrition and like 2014-22 a stalled front with sporadic scrapping.

There was a Ukrainian general/strategist in one of the papers a few days ago explaining why the spring offensive hasn’t been as shock and awe as some in the media has hyped it to be. The gist was that you have to take your time and methodically destroy the enemy’s infrastructure first, then make calculated advances. The balance to be struck was between a slow and steady advance that limited Ukranian losses, balanced against external time pressures like the upcoming US elections.

Just sending the whole army over the top at once is what Russia attempted disastrously in the first few days of the war. And that wasn’t against an a particularly organized or dug in Ukraine. The great tragedy of the Somme was that the allies were firm in their belief that the Germans must surely be depleted/destroyed/demoralized by their artillery barrage by now, and every schoolkid gets taught how that turned out.

And each time they attack it’s more lives lost. Which is both the tragedy of the loss of an individuals life, and the loss of manpower they don’t have unlimited resources of.

Many of the decent commentators have stated that even the UAF probably don’t know where they will strike yet..
Sure, they’ve got ideas, but you mess with logistics, probe the line looking for weaknesses, pull around the RU reserves around, then BOOM!

Hopefully.

I do find it interesting that whilst RU have destroyed their ground forces, they have kept a lot of the AirForce out of it. They must still be paranoid about either NATO or China.

Or none of their shiny jets actually work…..

they have kept a lot of the AirForce out of it.

Initially they were using air assets pretty heavily but the presence of determined Ukrainians armed with truckloads of stingers meant they lost a bundle of them early on and have been trying to keep them out of danger ever since because, with the current sanctions regime in place, they can’t replace their losses.

During last summer we’d see occasional flurries of Russian aircraft getting shot down after weeks or months of nothing, it usually indicated the Russian ground forces in an area were under under such pressure that command was willing to risk air assets to try and help them hold to which the AFU said ‘you’re welcome’ and duly blew them out of the sky.

If expect that one sign that the Ukrainan counter offensive is seriously under way is that we’ll see a sudden uptick in Russian air assets being downed as they try and hold the line.

US finally indicating that it’s ok to supply Ukraine with F16s

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

But the pessimist sees months and months of slow grinding attrition and like 2014-22 a stalled front with sporadic scrapping.

It’s starting to look, to me, like this is more likely the case. The promised date of the counter-offensive has been pushed back so many times now I’m beginning to suspect that this is already as big as it’s going to get. I hope I’m proved wrong, of course!

There was never a promised date.

Its not like the release of the next apple phone is it!?

Clearly they are systematically looking to weaken RU and find weak points to minimalise losses when they do move forward

Imagine the russia propaganda if they all just went its the 19th of May chaps, tally ho, over the top, only to be gunned down.

I’m waiting for images of the first destroyed MBT or other bit of shiny western kit. RU must be looking for the opportunity, just like the recent attempt to overwhelm a patriot. Which actually showed how effective it really is…

How easy is it to hide all their new kit and then move it to where it’s needed?

Ukraine never set a date for an offensive, that would be incredibly stupid. They are preparing for an offensive, trying to find the best place and time to launch it. They are destroying Russian infrastructure and keeping Russia under pressure. If Ukraine finds a weak spot in the Russian defenses, they will attack there. If they don’t find one, the smartest thing they can do is wait and not waste soldiers’ lives and precious equipment launching an attack that won’t succeed. The Ukrainian military leaders know this, they aren’t going to launch an offensive just because people on the internet are expecting one.

How easy is it to hide all their new kit and then move it to where it’s needed?

I guess that depends on how good Russia’s Satellites (or on the ground intelligence) are?

Although a lot of the kit that’s been sent has been less-sexy stuff like tank transporters so presumably it’s relatively easy to have your tanks stored 500 miles behind your front lines safely out of range, and then they can magically appear anywhere on a 1000mile stretch having been driven there overnight?

they have kept a lot of the AirForce out of it.

I think Russia has promised what’s left of it’s SU-35 fleet to Iran in exchange for making all those drones hasn’t it? In all seriousness though I think it became abundantly clear that the Russian air force didn’t manage to supress the Ukraine air defence system as it was too dispersed, they failed to destroy most of Ukraine’s SAM sites, and they couldn’t even stop the use of Ukrainian airfields, Intelligence of where Ukraine’s high value targets are seems woeful, and they don’t seem to be able to co-ordinate with ground troops.  I think rather than kept a lot of the air force out of it, they’ve realised that the Air Force can’t actually do the thing they’re supposed to do, and have largely given up trying.

Maybe, pressurise the flanks of Bhakmut – force Russia to weaken defences elsewhere to shore up Bhakmut, then Ukraine attacks weakened area 🤷‍♂️

Pretty sobering assessment of what Ukraine faces: Russia has adapted and learnt from some of its earlier mistakes, might not fix their fundamental issues, but it will still be tough

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/meatgrinder-russian-tactics-second-year-its-invasion-ukraine

Good Podcast by Channel 4 about we planned counter offensive.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly90aGVmb3VyY2FzdC5saWJzeW4uY29tL3Jzcw/episode/ZTk3ODBjMGEtNzYxMC00MTQ4LTg5OTItODc2YzNhODFlMDJj?ep=14

BBC confirms that Ukraine will be getting F16s

BBC News – Ukraine war: US to support providing F1-6 fighter jets to Ukraine
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65649471

The US have confirmed they’d allow others to supply F16s, not the US actually supplying any, it’s part of the US deals, if they resell they have to get US DoS approval.

Not sure who will supply them, or who will supply the weapons they use, it’ll be a while until they’ve got any operational squadrons though, even if they managed to be gifted some straight away.

Netherlands has a fair sized batch retired recently ‘apparently/allegedly’

Norway retire 50+ last year

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/norway-retires-f-16-as-f-35-takes-on-national-air-defence#:~:text=Norway%20has%20retired%20the%20Lockheed,from%20the%20beginning%20of%202022.&text=Although%20the%20F%2D16%20performed,will%20do%20so%20from%20Evenes.

Britain will probably have to donate some jets, (I know we don’t have F16s) before anyone else has the courage to pitch in, see Challengers and Storm Shadow 🤷‍♂️

President Biden will announce another US military aid package at the G7 this weekend, some Army Tactical Missile System – ATACMS – would be nice, we’ll see.
He’s also found $3bn down the back of the sofa that was lost in an aid accounting error

M1 Abrams training vehicles are in Germany, US-led training for crews and techs will begin soon in anticipation of the MBTs arriving in a few months https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3395940/ukrainian-tank-crews-maintainers-to-begin-training-on-us-m1-abrams-in-germany-s/

NATO deterrence is high in Eastern Europe. 100,000+ US troops in Europe https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3390038/us-official-looks-to-deter-russia-in-black-sea-region/

He’s also found $3bn down the back of the sofa that was lost in an aid accounting error

I spotted a claim somewhere Id be interested to see discarded or verified. Basically the accounting error is roughly equivalent to the price of the number of used F16s available from a particular source.

On the one hand, sounds like complete bllx, on the other hand, I thought Ukraine getting western built MBTs and cruise missiles was also complete bllx.

Anyway, who has some spare Destroyers recently retired…. (Im not actually sure if the Sandown Class boats ever made it?)

Nato must have a few Tornado jets knocking about surely. Built in numbers and used by lots of airforce till fairly recently. The ECM package is probably still effective against some of the sams tjat would be deployed.
Was a good ground support airframe, carried AA and smart munitions
Fast too, did well in Iraq. Retired by the RAF for years now, but will be huge knowledge base still existing.
Although with all the modern guided rocket munitions I do wonder if you need air support when a howitzer can be as accurate from 5km away.
I suppose its support in a fast moving environment where momentum is the key, you cannot move up your artillery as fast as a jet could be overhead

The Netherlands cancelled a deal to sell it's remaining F-16s to Draken International, so yeah, easy to guess where they will actually end up. https://t.co/iiXcdjABAW

— Oryx (@oryxspioenkop) May 20, 2023

it’ll be a while until they’ve got any operational squadrons though, even if they managed to be gifted some straight away.

I think you might be seeing F16s sent to replace lost aircraft as it happens rather than complete squadrons (although im not sure where I read that)

And there is a question about exactly how much training has already been done and on what elements of what is needed to actually operate them.

Ukraine had pilots training on simulators August last year apparently.
https://mixed-news.com/en/vr-at-war-ukrainian-pilots-train-with-quest-2-flight-simulation/

Biden pledged to assist training Ukrainian pilots on F16s also August last year
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

On of the main French newspapers reported Ukrainians being trained to do something a while (months) back too but my Google fu isnt finding that.

I think you might be seeing F16s sent to replace lost aircraft as it happens rather than complete squadrons (although im not sure where I read that)

Good luck to the maintainers if that’s the case, F16 is an ageing aircraft, that requires lots of maintenance and spares, training pilots is only part of the equation, you need maintainers, logisticians and so on if you’re going to be using them.