This brings up mental images of technicians with soldering irons, coloured wires and various types of plastic connector like someone trying to change an OEM stereo on their car… is that what it’s like? 🙂

Having worked with people doing weapons systems integration, test and validation on combat aircraft, I can assure you it’s a little more complex – you forgot the various cable ties and gaffer tape 😜

Is anybody else feeling like the Ukrainian offensive is never going to happen?

Is anybody else feeling like the Ukrainian offensive is never going to happen?

That’s what they’re hoping the Russians think.

Good news

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/16/uk-and-netherlands-agree-international-coalition-to-help-ukraine-with-f-16-jets?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Is anybody else feeling like the Ukrainian offensive is never going to happen?

Nope.  It’ll definitely happen.  Ukrainian military planners will be considering intelligence, force readiness, enemy strength & morale, weather and a shit load more very complex things.  They won’t be factoring in the timetables of bored voyeurs on cycling websites! 😉

Why the rush, if you are winning the battle of attrition? Wear down the enemy moral, materiel and man power at a faster rate than your losses.
Then just overun a beleaguered force of demoralised and ill equipped troops without suffering significant losses yourself.
Probably lots of behind the scenes stuff going on with small scale, ambush hit and run attacks to gauge the strength and commitment of ruskis, then rock up with 12 x Challenger tanks plus Bradley’s and Infantry on humvees and just drive straight through the lines to the seaside

Haha! Fair point!

There will be a shaping phase first.  Probing attacks at the front to test defences, stand-off attacks on command and control and logistic hubs in the rear, diversionary attacks and feints to fool the Russians etc.  They will be doing everything they can to keep the Russians in the dark as to when and where it will happen.

@blokeuptheroad – thanks for the welcome 😉

@aplin – significant population of Russian heritage in Estonian too. The countries share a border so this is to be expected to some degree though of course it’s also a significant relic of the Soviets imposing Russification after WWII. This was instigated with great cruelty and creates a permanent complexity for society to deal with…the same will have happened and be happening in occupied Crimea and the East with those identifying as Ukrainians suffering incarceration, deportations and property seizure, and at the same time new Russian populations being bussed in promised a fine new life. Having been through that and come out the other side the attitude I see in Estonia is admirably progressive and live and live…though the war is for sure focussing attitudes and putting a newfound pressure on what it means to identify as Russian.

@willard – spring has defo sprung, it’s a bit grey today but back to blue skies and sun after tomorrow. Currently tweaking a few tiny trails before Mother Nature gets her act together and everything blooms like mad!

@hatter – Estonians know what will happen if the Russians ever came. Like Ukraine they’d fight with all they have and anything anyone would give them.

The aircraft also needs to tell the missile at the moment of departure what the aircraft is doing, in realtime, so the missile knows things that might disturb it aerodynamically and physically as it gets going (wing sweep on Tornado, droops, gear position, attitude, engine thrusts, pod vibration… there’s probably dozens more, IANARS). Basically even fire & forget devices aren’t simply left to fall away.

@hot_fiat
But, in the case of a GPS guided cruise missile, if you just wanted to get the thing operational as fast as possible, surely you would just need to tell the pilots to only release the missile while flying straight and level. As far as the missile is concerned, it’s not functionally different from being launched from a ground launcher. These are stand-off weapons so the pilots will be launching them from a distance where it is safe to fly straight and level, not in the middle of a dogfight like with an air-to-air missile.

significant population of Russian heritage in Estonian too. The countries share a border so this is to be expected to some degree though of course it’s also a significant relic of the Soviets imposing Russification after WWII. This was instigated with great cruelty and creates a permanent complexity for society to deal with…the same will have happened and be happening in occupied Crimea and the East with those identifying as Ukrainians suffering incarceration, deportations and property seizure, and at the same time new Russian populations being bussed in promised a fine new life. Having been through that and come out the other side the attitude I see in Estonia is admirably progressive and live and live…though the war is for sure focussing attitudes and putting a newfound pressure on what it means to identify as Russian.

A couple of your signs and art installations in Tallin tell of a strong attitude.

As well as some sombre reminders of the wars fought, you have a spring next to the railway station, and a couple of the quotes from your ex leaders around a sh*t past being the compost of your future growth…

There will be a shaping phase first. Probing attacks at the front to test defences, stand-off attacks on command and control and logistic hubs in the rear, diversionary attacks and feints to fool the Russians etc

Indeed – and this has already started. Currently it looks like they’re mostly probing around Bakhmut, sensible given they know both the RA and Wagner are in a poor state there, there’s a good chance at encirclement. I’m assuming they’ll start probing around Kherson soon and a couple of other areas along the front and with Storm Shadow and other mind-long range missiles have started hitting RA C&C. If RA deploy a significant amount of reserves to try and prevent Bakhmut being encircled then the UA will switch and push through elsewhere.

@thols – It is my understanding that cruise missiles use a number of guidance methods, not just GPS, which is prone to ECM attack. Inertial guidance for one, which is pretty immune to jamming but is extremely sensitive to launch parameters. There will also be complex safe to arm systems to prevent accidental or unsafe launch and there will be a ‘wake up’ and systems check phase, monitored from the launch aircraft before release.

Slightly out of my knowledge area – I only ever worked with small AA and AT missiles and that was yonks ago. I think though that integration of a cruise missile to an airframe is a lot more complex than a hard point and wiring to an igniter. I’m sure it’s very doable mind, and has probably already been done, but I reckon it involved some clever engineering and head scratching!

Stimulus. France sending Storm Shadow sibling SCALP EG https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-france-sending-scalp-eg-cruise-missiles

<gammon stereotype mode>

Difference with the French one is the engine’s on backwards.

</gammon stereotype mode>

🙂
France has two SCALP variants, EG (aka Storm Shadow) and MdCN (aka Naval)
MdCN is a smaller missile but UK uses Tomahawk in this role.

EG apparently has a slightly different hard-point interface to Storm Shadow; more duct tape and solder then 🙂

Time for the US to provide ATACMS.

F16’s next

I think if F-16’s get involved it would be as direct replacements for the mig’s and sukhoi’s in eastern europe. The west is clearly giving the minimum to see what happens and slowly ramping up the delivery of more effective weapons.

Think Russia has stated the supply of fighter jets would be seen as provocation from the west, so could be tricky.

Also worth remembering that air superiority is more than just fighter jets, without the appropriate support F16s are not really much better than the MIGs.

Think Russia has stated the supply of fighter jets would be seen as provocation from the west, so could be tricky.

Russia have stated everything is a ‘provocation from the West’.  Main battle tanks, artillery, air defence systems, training packages, sanctions, HIMARS, long range missiles.  There will bluff and bluster, but their reaction to F16s would be the same as it was to all of those.  We need to give Ukraine what it needs to stop Putin’s rape and destruction of Ukraine and deter his future imperial ambitions. For the sake of future peace in Europe.

For the sake of future peace in Europe.

Not just Europe, I’m pretty sure that if Putin had just swept into Ukraine without major international backlash then then Xi’s troops would be in Taiwan by now.

It would have been a green light to every tin-pot dictator to grab a slice of their neighbor.

Considering the economic impact of that situation the amount we’re spending on suoporting Ukraine is stone cold bargain.

^ hatter said it better.

*edit*

Difference with the French one is the engine’s on backwards.

And they fly on the wrong side of the sky

But, in the case of a GPS guided cruise missile, if you just wanted to get the thing operational as fast as possible, surely you would just need to tell the pilots to only release the missile while flying straight and level. As far as the missile is concerned, it’s not functionally different from being launched from a ground launcher. These are stand-off weapons so the pilots will be launching them from a distance where it is safe to fly straight and level, not in the middle of a dogfight like with an air-to-air missile.

Just thinking logically, surely there’s as much an issue doing that as in any other scenario.

E.g. if the missile is mounted as a certain angle under the plane then depending on the speed of the plane it’ll be developing more or less lift than it weighs. Fly at the wrong speed/angle of attack and hitting the release button would just leave the missile stuck to the bottom of the plane?

Equally you wouldn’t want to release it and just let it freefall/glide for too long before it’s internal controls kick in, the engine starts up etc incase it ends up in a unrecoverable spin?

IANAAeronauticalEngineer.

It looks like the wings deploy after launch, avoiding all those issues.

But presumably you still need to both have a system that stops you releasing the missile in an undesirable way (worst case, mid loop-de-loop), and some way to tell the missile what the plane was doing (release, missile slows down, engines and wings start up, missile speeds up, planes now in front of the missile……).

My usual rule of thumb as an engineer is if someone gives me a problem and I don’t know the solution, it’s always infinitely more complicated than my first guess.

Fly at the wrong speed/angle of attack and hitting the release button would just leave the missile stuck to the bottom of the plane?

In the case of a cruise missile, you can just train your pilots to fly straight and level when firing the missile. An air to air missile needs to be fired while the aircraft is in a dogfight, a cruise missile doesn’t require that. I suspect that most, if not all, missiles have limitations on when they can be safely released (negative-g would obviously cause problems).

In the case of a cruise missile, you can just train your pilots to fly straight and level when firing the missile. An air to air missile needs to be fired while the aircraft is in a dogfight

Only if you’re watching Top Gun, real world range is everything, dogfighting happens if something’s gone seriously wrong.

Reality is aircraft are just the transport for the weapons, but that wouldn’t make a very good movie 😂

Most Air2Air missiles are BVR – beyond visual range. Get high and fast & fire at max range. Cruise missiles are the same. Fire it high & fast it’s range is much farther than releasing it low and slow.

Most Air2Air missiles are BVR – beyond visual range.

AFAIK, the Sidewinder is the most widely used missile. It’s not BVR, it needs to be able to be fired while the launch aircraft is engaged in combat.

Fly at the wrong speed/angle of attack

As other’s have said if you’re having to manoeuvre hard while you’re releasing a Storm Shadow, something has gone horribly wrong

Don’t the basic laws of physics apply. You unclamp a 900kg lump from a plame, it goes down and you go up. 2 seconds later the wings deploy and the engine fires.
The 900kg lump is still doing 500mph so will be stable for a few seconds till the kinetic bleeds away

That’s exactly how’s it’s launched.

Level flight, released. Motor ignition occurs beneath and away from the aircraft.

Off it goes to make boom boom.

Don’t the basic laws of physics apply. You unclamp a 900kg lump from a plame, it goes down and you go up. 2 seconds later the wings deploy and the engine fires.
The 900kg lump is still doing 500mph so will be stable for a few seconds till the kinetic bleeds away

Don’t the basic laws of physics apply.

They apply so hard that in fact sometimes, weird shit happens…

On Sept. 21, 1956, test pilot Tom Attridge began a shallow dive in his F11F. As he did, he fired two short bursts from the aircraft’s four 20mm cannons, and thought nothing of it – until he got to the end of his dive, and the bursts began to shoot up his aircraft. He started at 20,000 feet and then went into a Mach 1 dive as he fired. He accelerated with afterburner and at 13,000 feet, fired to empty. He continued his dive. but at 7,000 feet, something struck his canopy glass and one of his engine intake lips. The aircraft began to lose power, and Attridge headed back to base to land it.  The plane, as it turned out, was hit in the windshield, the right intake, and the nose cone by its own rounds. The low pitch of the plane and its trajectory, combined with the trajectory of the bullets and the speed of the Tiger’s descent at half the speed of sound right into the guns’ target area, meant that the plane would easily catch up with its own burst of 20mm fire.

https://youtu.be/DbAKDJGykgY

I feel somewhat validated in my opinion that it’s never quite as straightforward as it first seemed.

Air defense active over Sevastopol this afternoon

Are they taking down their own jets again?

And over 200,000 Russian lives wasted – and let us not forget the Ukrainian side too likely has similarly shocking numbers.

Putin remains the master strategist and protagonist of a ‘3-day special operation’.

You unclamp a 900kg lump from a plame, it goes down and you go up. 2 seconds later the wings deploy and the engine fires.

You’ve forgotten to take into account aerodynamic effects. There’s some cracking footage, which annoyingly I can’t now find, of missiles and bombs being released but not really going anywhere and/or coming back up and hitting the aircraft ah, that’ll be the very video up there ^ then

“snip…Xi’s troops would be in Taiwan by now”

Indian media is getting stuck into news this week that China is using Vladivostock as a domestic port for the first time in 150+years. It’s a quick drive into China from there
Vladivostock (Translates: Ruler of the East) was previously called Haishenwai and was under Chinese rule; sections of Indian media believe that Russia didn’t have much choice

For proportion: India has had recent territory disagreements with China and it’s certainly true that Russia needs the income. Russia already has a couple of long-standing port agreements