The only thing Russia would have accepted was Russian control over Ukraine. The only country interested in attacking Ukraine was Russia, but that treaty would have allowed Russia to veto any assistance from other countries. It wasn’t a security guarantee for Ukraine, it was a treaty saying that Russia could do whatever it wanted.

Russia demanded that in the event of an attack, all guarantor states agree to activate the assistance mechanism. This would have given Moscow veto power to override the defense mechanism. In addition, Moscow rejected a Ukrainian demand that guarantor states could establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine in the event of an attack.

I agree and no doubt it’s why Ukraine never went through with it. It’s impossible to negotiate with Putin as he is objectively completely untrustworthy.

I do wonder if at some point, especially in the light of more western aid eventually arriving , that Putin would consider negotiating, especially if he could capture the whole of Donbass.

Followed by the kind of stalemate and low level fighting that we saw after the 2015 peace deal (ultimately planning to take the rest of Ukraine after several years of rebuilding & undermining Ukraine from within)

Being realistic at best it seems that Ukraine will be able to stabilise things, the hoped for summer counteroffensive last year failed, Russia’s tactics have improved (even if they are still losing huge numbers of men) and they have secured ammo, weapons & tech from N korea, Iran, China etc. There will come a point when some sort of peace deal looks appealing to Zelensky/Ukraine

I wouldn’t describe any peace deal where ukraine cede territory to russia as appealing.  So far there has been no evidence ukraine will do that willingly.  If it happens it will be because they are out of options imo.

This will be the deciding year for Ukraine either way I think. I can still see it potentially ending with some sort of DMZ in the east and an uneasy truce. Putin will of course rebuild his military afterwards but so will Ukraine and they will be far better prepared if he chances his hand again. Hopefully money pours into Ukraine to rebuild and to help it prepare for a future with a belligerent  neighbour to deal with.

Putin also needs to be careful what he wishes for. If he does manage to subdue the whole country its going to be one hell of a country to try and keep the lid on.

Its now flooded with people that hate Putin, hate Russia and will cause him no end of problems for decades. He’s inflicted way to much pain on the general population to ever submit even if their military has to. Plenty of Ukrainians are now trained to fight and I can see a constant, never ending insurgency happening that could jeopardise Putin just as much as if he loses the war.

I would love to know what cost each square mile of territory gain is costing Russia in terms of manpower and rubbles. Bet it’s eye watering. And Ukraine is a very big country.

I think that’s a pretty accurate description of eastern Ukraine’s future @poopscoop

Looking forward to China taking a bite out of Russia.

I think that the content of any peace treaty will depend on who’s in charge on each side.

If a DMZ is a consideration then in theory it could be huge, north-to-south.

Crimea is a possible for peace-keeping zones, similar to the situation on the Sinai Peninsular, but two zones and without Russian troops.

Ukraine’s military would patrol the northern zone that has links to “mainland” Ukraine. Ukraine’s Border Service and Police would patrol Crimea’s tourist areas (Sinai Peninsular has four zones with Egyptian troops in zone A and Israeli troops in zone D)

Looking forward to China taking a bite out of Russia.

The China-Russia dynamic is interesting. China needs a reasonably strong Russia to solidify a multi-polar world

China alone isn’t strong enough to take the “west” on. Its banks, for example, are wary of triggering secondary “western” sanctions through certain types of trade with Russia

No one will take a bite out of a country with nukes,  that in my opinion is pure fantasy..

It’s the very real mechanism for their plausible use “defence of homeland”and yes I believe they would be used under those circumstances.

im suprised Rishi hasn’t sugested nuking the boats as we are apparently being invaded

^^ I agree but China is far too savvy to do that as it’s risky unnecessary. Chinese citizens are already investing in and living in Siberia in large numbers. It will naturally fall more and more under Chinese influence as the years go by. I sometimes do wonder if Putin realises China is the true existential threat to his country, not the West, just as it is to many other countries globally?

China can gain all the advantages of a land grab without a single PLA soldier ever having to fire a single shot. China is very good at this, look at the south China sea. This is far more subtle though and Putin is in no position to stop it.

Ukraine will start operating F-16s after Orthodox Easter on May 5, Kyiv has said, as the country contends with devastating Russian bombardment and the long wait for the Western-made fighter jets.

👍

.

Very out of character for them to announce it in advance.

They usually like making it a nice suprise

China alone isn’t strong enough to take the “west” on.

China is on their 3rd aircraft carriers now which is still far behind the West in technology so no chance whatsoever.  In 50 years time that will be a different story.

Looking forward to China taking a bite out of Russia.

What for?  They rely on Russia for technology.

If a DMZ is a consideration then in theory it could be huge, north-to-south.

Ukraine will need to consider themselves a “winner” if they can retain half of the country after the war is over,  because the other half or 1/3 will definitely be annexed.  Whatever remains of Ukraine will be “dysfunctional” at best.  Negotiation? With what?  DMZ? Russia will make sure of that they are the one in charge of DMZ.

Occupying Ukraine will be a drain on resources which is really pointless, but making it dysfunctional like what the West/US has done to many other countries is much easier.

Crimea is a possible for peace-keeping zones, similar to the situation on the Sinai Peninsular, but two zones and without Russian troops.

Putin has zero interest in any deal involving withdrawing Russian forces and especially any deal allowing third country troops into the region. Treaties and peace deals are just fantasies that ignore the reality of who Putin is. He will eventually die and his replacement will probably be someone even more nationalistic. This is not going to end any time soon.

Useful thread on why the supposed peace talks were just a fantasy.

Recent days have seen a renewed debate over the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks of spring of 2022. The popular wisdom says that both sides were close to an agreement, but this is simply false. Let's finally unpack it, dyspel the myths and put a stop to the manipulation that abound

— Daniel Szeligowski (@dszeligowski) May 1, 2024

What we are seeing today is a coordinated effort to blame Ukraine for the failure of the 2022 talks. This is ignorance at best, at worst – a deliberate action to influence the Western public opinion to undermine support for further assistance to Ukraine [END]

— Daniel Szeligowski (@dszeligowski) May 1, 2024

Treaties and peace deals are just fantasies

Every war ends with one of those

…and his replacement will probably be someone even more nationalistic.

Will they share the same view of what is “Russian”, or will they need to rebuild an entire country and its economy?

The Russian minimum wage is rising faster than “western” countries, although the economy is supposedly strong https://www.statista.com/statistics/1269963/russia-minimum-wage/

43 companies were forced to sell foreign currency revenue in Russia to prop the ruble up https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/31/russia-capital-controls-rouble-vladimir-putin

The current exchange rate is hovering around 92 rubles to $1 despite this

Bloomberg reported that Russia’s state-owned oil tanker company, Sovcomflot, has renamed four sanctioned tankers with Russian names. They are also under the Russian flag for the first time in a while.

Russia has run out of places to hide its shadow fleet because sanctions have withdrawn their ability to register with other countries.

They replaced Liberian and Marshall Islands flags with the flag of Gabon a few months ago, but that backfired because most ports are deeply suspicious of the Gabon tanker MoT test and subject them to  extra checks

What for?  They rely on Russia for technology.

Chinese military aerospace (at least, and its probably true for all branches of their military) relies on stolen western tech from the US and Europe. It may have ex-soviet weaponry in its arsenal, but most of those airframes have been retrofitted with home-grown technology based on stolen copywritten and patented tech [that China refuses to recognise].

Treaties and peace deals are just fantasies

Every war ends with one of those

The idea of a treaty with Putin is a fantasy. He has no interest in one and Ukraine knows that he cannot be trusted to abide by any treaty so they aren’t going to sign one.

It may have ex-soviet weaponry in its arsenal, but most of those airframes have been retrofitted with home-grown technology based on stolen copywritten and patented tech [that China refuses to recognise].

They are not very good at technology but they learn / copy / acquire fast from all over and recognising patented tech will only be detrimental to their progress.

The idea of a treaty with Putin is a fantasy. He has no interest in one and Ukraine knows that he cannot be trusted to abide by any treaty so they aren’t going to sign one.

Too late for treaty now.

And now, another low point.

https://bbc.com/news/world-europe-68941220

Chloropicrin, diphenylchlorarsine, American-developed Adamsite (diphenylaminechlorarsine), and others were irritants that could bypass gas masks and make soldiers remove their masks, thus, exposing them to phosgene or chlorine.

Nasty technique, make people vomit so they have to remove their masks. No nastier than gassing in the first place, but it’s one step further on ingenious evil.

From a country that murders its critics and innocent bystanders in chemical attacks in the UK and elsewhere, this is not at all surprising.  Russia is a terrorist state.

The ever excellent Steve Rosenberg’s report last night where he covered the Moscow display of western hardware only shows how many countries think the Putin regime needs stopping. I’d be embarrassed if I were a Moscovite.

I’d be embarrassed if I were a Moscovite.

They should be but…

Let’s face it, even many of the ones that can access Western media and know there is another side to this are fine to accept Putin’s version. Hell, there are a lot of Russians living abroad in Western democracies that still support his narrative.

Far more scummy are the MAGA lot though, they can rot in hell for the suffering they have caused all in the pursuit of keeping the Trump acolytes happy.

If…

Every country that backed Ukraine put on a display of wrecked russian hardware to display at the same time it would be a powerful counter message…

Hell, there are a lot of Russians living abroad in Western democracies that still support his narrative.

Some Russian stabbed a Ukrainian refugee in some little village in Bavaria the other day.

^^ Yep, poor sods were convalescing from wounds fighting for Ukraine only to get murdered by that piece of shit in Germany.

I get a bit angry over Ukraine, sorry.

Edit: We might be taking about different incidents? 2 Ukrainian servicemen in Germany were murdered by a Russian a few days back.

The idea of a treaty with Putin is a fantasy. He has no interest in one and Ukraine knows that he cannot be trusted to abide by any treaty so they aren’t going to sign one

Coincidentally published yesterday evening…

“Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi…snip…stated that wars like the one in Ukraine only end with treaties and that both Russia and Ukraine are competing for the most favorable position ahead of potential talks that could begin as early as the second half of 2025”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2024

Today’s FT International front page story,

“Gazprom plummets to worst loss in decades as European sales collapse”

“$7bn hit as Ukraine war takes toll” They used to make trillions of rubles profit

It’s all happening in the Russian MoD with infighting between them and other governmental depts…

“The recent arrest of Timur Ivanov, Russia’s deputy defence minister and close ally of defence minister Sergei Shoigu, has rocked the country’s politics.” 5 minute read… https://theconversation.com/russia-arrest-of-deputy-defence-minister-on-corruption-charges-reveals-bitter-factional-infighting-among-the-elite-229060

I get a bit angry over Ukraine, sorry

Why?

UKs rapid aid ^^ has started to arrive in Ukraine, confirmed by David Cameron, “Some of that (equipment) is actually arriving in Ukraine today, while I’m here,”

David Cameron also confirmed that UK weapons can be used inside Russia’s borders,”Cameron said Ukraine had a right to use the weapons provided by London to strike targets inside Russia, and that it was up to Kyiv whether to do so.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/britains-cameron-kyiv-promises-ukraine-aid-as-long-it-takes-2024-05-02/

He talks about “snip…emptied all we can in terms of giving equipment…snip” to put that into perspective, UK has only ever made 179 AS90 self-propelled guns (SPG). Some are in eastern NATO countries with UK forces and UK has now given 50 to Ukraine, plus 12 non-functioning SPGs for spares. UK is starting to get the new Archer guns to the military here

UK has also given a squadron (14) Challenger 2 tanks, plus recovery and repair vehicles. UK needs to keep a few back for use and 148 for upgrading to Challenger 3 spec.

relapsed_mandaloria
Full Member
I get a bit angry over Ukraine, sorry

Why?

@relapsed_mandalorian

Sorry, my post might be a little ambiguous!

I mean to say I hate the MAGA lot and the like that have been prepared to let Ukraine literally count the bullets they have to defend their own people.

Ukraine are giving everything in this fight and having to fight to even get the weapons to do so.  I’m just appalled by that.

So more correctly, I hate the MAGA lot and other useful idiots that have assisted Putin in one way or another.

@Poopscoop

That’s fair, they’re a very odd little authoritarian bunch that’s for sure.

thats the first time its been stated ukraine can use western weapons inside russia isn’t it.  have the US changed thier stance?

I’d see the main benefit is not what ukraine hits, but what it can threaten and therefore force russian AA to be more wide spread

I’m no longer seeing stories around russian missle stockpiles, it was commonly reported they were going to run out and that just doesn’t seem to have happened.  Sure NK and Iran have helped, but I can’t imagine in huge numbers, given they would need to be maintaining enough kit for their own defence too.