Fingers crossed it’s true!

Russian lines at the Dnieper River completely collapsed. All surviving Russians units in that sector try to establish new perimeter at Dudchany. I believe that Ukrainian forces are in all towns North of Dudchany. #Kherson #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/2u8buTawky

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 2, 2022

Any “dramatic actions” in Kherson at the moment seem to be based principally on a twitter hashtag, some maps and nothing else.

Got to be treated with a bit of scepticism for now as ISW, MOD and others are quiet on this. ISW’s analysis, which tends to be calm and dispassionate has been suggesting that there won’t be much change in Kherson Oblast for a while. UAF are operationally silent on anything in this area (their forces in this area aren’t using social media very much at the moment, if at all) , RA aren’t saying much either which points to a difficult, complex and costly battle/series of battles going on across a wide area.

Basically it’s a case of wait and see.

Once again the ‘good news’ of progress is, for me, about possibly seeing this all end sooner than Pootin would want. Less lives lost or lives ruined.

Sadly with such rapid progress is that fear of Russian’s leaving scorched earth behind.

Russian sources claim that Ukrainian forces are trying to take over Beryslav city. If these claims are true,this would indicate that Ukrainian soldiers have breached around 72 km into Russian lines in Kherson Oblast. Furthermore, Dudchany was allegedly taken over a few hours ago. pic.twitter.com/RgZajRMEK7

— CaucasusWarReport (@Caucasuswar) October 2, 2022

Some of the claims are getting bigger, thats just ludicrous.

Any “dramatic actions” in Kherson at the moment seem to be based principally on a twitter hashtag, some maps and nothing else.

Quite a few seem to rely on Russian channels, not that means its any more reliable.

ISW does the same tbf, although with more cross checking.

But there have been times where it seems likely disinformation is put out there to unbalance the opponent.

The Russians seemed keen on scorched earth on the way in anyway. Running off with their tails between their legs probably leaves them less time to smash stuff needlessly.

Scorched earth is the Russian way of moving forwards, basically mowing down everything in front of them with artillery. Like johnny says, trickier to do when they are regrouping running for their lives, not that I’m sure they won’t have a go at it but looking at the equipment and ammo supplies they’ve left behind in previous UKR pushes they are certainly travelling light when they go.

This whole Western Kherson salient is very flat open ground. A bit like Norfolk and The Fens.

If you had spent the last 6 weeks cutting it off from re supply, blowing up command centres and ammo dumps, probing to destroy what Armour the enemy had, and exhaust the opposition, it would be ripe territory to bring in your fresh mobile troops and smash through where you had assessed a weakness in the line………

Russia have been putting a lot more reinforcements into southern regions

More important than eastern oblasts to Putin, better access to Crimea & black sea – makes harder for Ukraine to export via sea

😳

This Russian account is begging for air support and asking over Telegram if anyone has a connection to Russian military command to put them in contact, which is a pretty bad sign for Russian forces. 7/https://t.co/7GDT7jtYoO

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) October 2, 2022

Just been reading in Novaya Gazeta Europe that the RA has managed to misplace 1.5m army uniforms (link here: missing kit )which, along with the fact that there are reports of new conscripts having to camp in fields as there is no space/equipment/food etc in military barracks for them will help make the mass recruitment a bit interesting…

To quote Blackadder goes forth:

Private “Bob”: “Don’t send me back, I want to see how war is fought, so badly”

Captain Blackadder: “well you’ve come to the right place. A war hasn’t been fought this badly since Olaf the Hairy, High Chief of all the Vikings, accidentally ordered 80,000 battle helmets with the horns on the inside“

Or indeed, so well. At least from the POV of the UA.

Meanwhile, interesting developments seem to be afoot in Kherson. The UA seem to be attacking down the right bank of the Dnipro river, driving a salient that may have reached as far as Dudchany which is on the road to Beryslav.

Success here would see RF forces’ options to retreat across the river significantly decreased as well as creating the conditions for another potential encirclement in Northern Kherson. Could be yet another devastating setback for Putin is on the cards..

Some blunt words from another former US General/CIA Director

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/02/us-russia-putin-ukraine-war-david-petraeus

The US and its allies would destroy Russia’s troops and equipment in Ukraine – as well as sink its Black Sea fleet – if Russian president Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons in the country, former CIA director and retired four-star army general David Petraeus warned on Sunday.

Not an “official” line

Waiting for satellite updates of that recent airfield ‘accident’ in Crimea

Ru claimed it was a plane leaving the runway and apparently causing a huge ammo explosion

That’s a big statement. Promising to fully engage direct nato action on RF forces if a battlefield nuke is deployed. I guess it would be air assets, drones, ltg missiles and rockets as opposed to boots on the ground.
Scary stuff

Those Kherson advances are confirmed, the Russians were completely routed apparently – today should be interesting 👍

Those Kherson advances are confirmed

Yup the Deputy Head puppet of the Kherson region released a statement earlier, acknowledging UA breakthroughs but telling everyone that there’s no need to panic..

So it’s obviously worse than we realise thus far.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1576852075824447488

Also reports that in the East the UA are in the outskirts of Lyschansk!

This is a good article on how the Finns gave Ivan a bloody nose in the winter war. They obviously didn’t invent it – I seem to remember the Germans using something similar to devastate the Romans in the Teutoberg Forest – but applied it to great effect.

https://www.thenomadtoday.com/articulo/finland/how-finns-used-motti-tactic-to-entrap-soviets-in-winter-war/20191215221904003769.html

Bit like the column for Kiev of course and other examples of how the UA have isolated, immobolised and then picked off superior Russian forces

Promising to fully engage direct nato action…

If the Tweet is correct, “The US and its allies…”, which isn’t necessarily NATO, although the US and its allies will probably also be members of NATO 🙂

This map apparently demonstrates what the UA are up to. Effectively creating another cauldron to isolate, trap and destroy more RF assets

This tactic was used by Russia during the 2015 battle for Debaltseve (Donetsk) when around 1000/6000 UKR troops were killed, wounded or captured.
The UKR break out was ingenious, sneaking civilian vehicles, ambulances, etc, in using minor roads and tracks

umm I don’t think that is ingenious if true. Keep seeing reports of war crimes for Russians targetting civilian convoys. You can understand why if UKR is using civvy vehicles to infiltrate. I can see why they would and I want them to push Ru back, but you can’t then call foul when they blow up any car or ambulance that moves….

I think that statement refers to the 2015 battle (after reading the wiki page).

Ah I thought he was referring to the current conflict, seemed a bit of a Co incidence there have been recent reports of civilian convoys being attacked

WTF does Putin think he’s going to achieve by dumping untrained soldiers in a field without any equipment or supplies?

Dire conditions of the Russian Army. This video is from Russian social media & was filmed by one of the mobilized who was sent to Omsk. They spend days & nights in the open field, eat what they have & drink. No command, no uniform, no barracks, no tents, no sleeping bags. pic.twitter.com/HWmDVa5EHV

— Viktor Kovalenko (@MrKovalenko) October 3, 2022

LMAO, it’s finally dawned on Russians that looting military equipment might be a problem if you end up in a war.

“I still don’t understand where 1.5 million sets [of uniform], which had been kept at personnel reception points, ended up. <…> All of these things were there, where did they disappear to?” https://t.co/1JvWaSGwmQ

— Novaya Gazeta. Europe (@novayagazeta_en) October 2, 2022

Dire conditions of the Russian Army. This video is from Russian social media & was filmed by one of the mobilized who was sent to Omsk.

Looks like Sunday night at a free party c. 1997 😆

Reports coming in that the RF is abandoning positions in Northern Kherson as threat of encirclement grows (I think they get that now). Apparently they will form a new defensive line running NW from Beryslav.

If this is true this would effectively hand the UA nearly 50% of the Kherson territory North of the Dnipro that has been occupied by the RF.

Which would be breathtaking and effectively mean that the RF will be out of Kherson North of the river sooner rather than later.

Of course with the river as an easily defendable boundary – and with the Eastern offensive taking up RF time and resources – this would then mean that the next move would almost certainly be a strike South from Zaporizhzhia towards Melitopol (and ultimately) the Crimea..

Blimey

Indeed a quick glance at Twitter suggest really sizeable movements in Kharkiv area – perhaps back to the Russian border, as well as movements in Kherson at a pace. It seems like the Ukrainians again have built up a pace of attack that just doesn’t let the Russians pause to regroup.

Fingers crossed that this continues.

It seems like the Ukrainians again have built up a pace of attack that just doesn’t let the Russians pause to regroup.

Classic war of manoeuvre. Get inside your enemies decision making loop, so they can only respond after the situation has already changed.

The Allies 1918 and the Germans 1940.

It does look to be heading for a total collapse of the Russian forces. Fingers crossed.

With the 1.5 million uniforms that have gone ‘missing’, one has to wonder if they ever even existed? Bought and paid for obviously but actually manufactured?

I suppose that one of the reasons the offensives are progressing so swiftly is that there’s a short cut in the re-supply chain, whereby the Ukranians don’t have to shift munitions forward as the Russians are kindly supplying them in situ and the munitions are completely compatible with the shared post Soviet era equipment.

With the 1.5 million uniforms that have gone ‘missing’, one has to wonder if they ever even existed? Bought and paid for obviously but actually manufactured?

That does seem quite likely. They probably made 100 000 or something and took photos of them in different warehouses.

The Russians do seem to be on the run.

The Russian line has collapsed in the north of Kherson region. The invaders are retreating to try to hold Dudchany. Advancing Ukrainian troops are chasing to give them no time to dig in. pic.twitter.com/yzbjZ5uLhE

— Michael MacKay (@mhmck) October 2, 2022

Now, my military credentials are pretty much limited to watching Hollywood movies, but I always imagined that a forest would be a really good place to set up a defensive line.

Russian sources on the situation in the settlements west of Svatove near the Oskil river
"Our troops are withdrawing without a fight, which is caused by the impossibility of successfully defending this vast wooded area"

— WarMonitor🇺🇦 (@WarMonitor3) October 3, 2022

Probably really easy to end up shooting your own side in the woods if you’re in disarray.

It’s more likely the Russian uniforms didn’t exit than that they were stolen – I can’t imagine anyone wanting to look like a Russian soldier if they could avoid it (even in the Ru army).

Probably really easy to end up shooting your own side in the woods if you’re in disarray.

Yes, I can imagine that Russian officers might want to stay away.

This can’t be real?

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1576961509749850112?s=20&t=utkSNDeDp-7R7IeWGJriOw

Well, with a pretty sheep like that, you’d not want to eat it all at once… 😵‍💫

That is something thats very similar to something thats come up before and was categorised as some to leave well alone and helps no one.

Russian Army eat meat shocker!!

@Piemonster. No goats involved in that particular clip, I believe.  Just two consenting adults going about their business when some twisted individual, piloting a drone, drops a grenade on them.