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Ukraine
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scruffywelderFree Member
The missiles are being integrated into existing Ukrainian aircraft – Mig-29s – not an easy task because they are Russian-built with very different avionics systems compared to Western jets. But war tends to accelerate development progress, so perhaps it is no surprise that this has been achieved by Ukraine.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find that they’re specifically being used with the ex-Polish/ex-German/ex-DDR MIGs as ISTR the Germans did some upgrades and mods back in the 90s to allow them to use NATO ordnance when they inherited them and added them to their reserve fleet. The mods wouldn’t get them all the way but would probably reduce the number of headaches to a manageable level for a rapid wartime development programme.
thols2Full MemberI wouldn’t be surprised to find that they’re specifically being used with the ex-Polish/ex-German/ex-DDR MIGs as ISTR the Germans did some upgrades and mods back in the 90s to allow them to use NATO ordnance
Apparently the HARM missiles have an inertial guidance mode so the launch aircraft doesn’t need compatible electronics. It just launches the missile and the missile self guides to the general area then attacks any radar transmitters it detects.
piemonsterFull MemberThere’s a piece here about the psychological war being fought.
https://www.apa.org/monitor/2022/06/news-psychological-warfare
Notably it really just looks at what Russia is doing when it talks about Ukraine, no mention of any Shiba Inu’s. Which is a fascinating counter in itself.
futonrivercrossingFree MemberHe was supposed to be in it.
She was just as bad politically apparently uk sanctioned her in june.
I honestly cannot see Ukraine having much too do with this far too much to lose on the world stage and not enough to gain, even if he is Putins mastermind.
More like crime/oligarchy situation.Early signs of an internal power struggle? 🤷♂️
thols2Full MemberI have a feeling he might be right about this.
OK, given the FSB's prompt explanation of Dugina's assassination, with all the juicy details, the range of suspects has narrowed to:
— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) August 22, 2022
piemonsterFull MemberEarly signs of an internal power struggle? 🤷♂️
Well….
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Republican_Army_(Russia)
Not that I view that as credible.
MoreCashThanDashFull MemberUkraine are not stupid enough to carry out the bombing, always seemed to me likely to be an internal Russian act.
Whether it was deliberately to remove her or her father, or to give them an excuse to retaliate in Ukraine, or both, who knows
thols2Full MemberUkraine are not stupid enough to carry out the bombing, always seemed to me likely to be an internal Russian act.
I imagine there will be a full confession by this time tomorrow.
There have been so many high profile assassinations in Moscow that FSB has not been able to solve for decades but with Dugina they find their culprit (a Ukrainian, of course, with a daughter in tow – who served but where else – Azov regiment) in less than 48 hours. Laughable
— Dmitri Alperovitch (@DAlperovitch) August 22, 2022
thols2Full MemberIn the last months she would not shut up about bad Russian military performance. She constantly criticised Shoygu (privately) and insisted that if *she* was a minister of defence, it'd be alright. For some reason, she was trying to pitch herself a a minister of defense, Idk why
— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) August 22, 2022
martinhutchFull MemberI’m waiting for the picture of the assassins’ hideout complete with Nazi regalia and copies of Sims 3, just like last time.
breatheeasyFree MemberWasn’t there a regular boatload of assasinations/car bombs a while ago in Russia? Wonder if the Russian mafia are starting to flex their muscles again if times are tight.
pk13Full MemberReports the NRA have taken credit.
A car bomb of that scale takes huge planning or really stupid security staff.
Weeks of following him/her
Getting access to the cars of top Russia (I want to use the word fascist) adviser to putin.
Getting high explosive and associated gubbins.Or it’s an inside job.
Ummmmm.dissonanceFull MemberNational Rifle Association extending its reach then?
Given how the US National Rifle Association was infiltrated by Russian spies doesnt that still count as an inside job?
pk13Full MemberThose made up nut jobs although it turns out dissonance has a fair and valid point about the USA NRA having a few members with snow on their boots
thols2Full MemberI’m shocked, SHOCKED, to hear suspicions that Russian security officers might fabricate evidence.
2/5 Nothing beats a killer shadow effect. No limits to what you can achieve with some gaussian blur. pic.twitter.com/5nPPdvvH6n
— Lauri Linnamäe (@IssandJumal) August 22, 2022
kimbersFull MemberThe speed v with which they’ve found these Azov IDs, makes you wonder if the FSB were inviting setting this up hmmmmm
piemonsterFull MemberReports the NRA have taken credit.
A car bomb of that scale takes huge planning or really stupid security staff.
Weeks of following him/her
Getting access to the cars of top Russia (I want to use the word fascist) adviser to putin.
Getting high explosive and associated gubbins.Or it’s an inside job.
Ummmmm.Although my money is on an inside job all day long.
Its not completely impossible that the NRA could do this, the IRA managed Brighton and Mountbatten. But that would require the NRA to be well trained, organised, committed, and… well… real… and not just an element of Psychological Warfare by another party.
I suppose its theoretically possible that the efforts in Ukraine have created breathing room inside Russia to organise, I dont believe that IS what is happening, because frankly I have no idea what is happening.
tthewFull MemberCan someone confirm who the NRA is in this context please. It’s certainly not the US National Rifle Association, or it it was indeed them then claiming the credit, I’m astounded that they could actually be more a group of fantasists than I previously gave them credit for.
thols2Full MemberAs fake as it obviously is, it would be pretty cool if this was true.
But imagine for a moment that it is true. This means: 1) The SBU has sufficient assets to strike in one of Moscow's most secure & elite neighborhoods; and 2) The Russian security services are beyond incompetent; and 3) the Russian elite should be afraid — very afraid
— Brian Whitmore (@PowerVertical) August 22, 2022
piemonsterFull MemberCan someone confirm who the NRA is in this context please. It’s certainly not the US National Rifle Association, or it it was indeed them then claiming the credit, I’m astounded that they could actually be more a group of fantasists than I previously gave them credit for.
National Republican Army of Russia, a nationalist anti Putinist movement, allegedly.
At this point I dont think anyone really knows what it is. Could (and for me, probably is) just be another element of the psychological war currently being fought.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/21/7364237/
Contains the “manifesto” of the NRA.
matt_outandaboutFull MemberA Ukrainian woman, with a child, managed to pull of an assassination in Moscow’s elite Rublyovka neighborhood — and escape to Estonia in a Mini Cooper?!?
CCTV images have been found of the perps.
tthewFull MemberNational Republican Army of Russia, a nationalist anti Putinist movement, allegedly.
Thanks piemonster.
molgripsFree MemberGetting high explosive and associated gubbins.
Surely it’d be fairly easy to buy weapons off the back of a truck in Russia?
pk13Full MemberMolgrips
The Russian army is currently getting it’s arms from the Taliban at this stage it’s anything goes.
High stakes cluedo.
I’m going with Putin in the Kremlin with C4.ElShalimoFull MemberSo what are the odds of Putin ordering random strikes across the Ukrainian cities tomorrow to coincide with their Independence day ?
thols2Full MemberSo what are the odds of Putin ordering random strikes across the Ukrainian cities tomorrow to coincide with their Independence day ?
What are the odds of Ukraine anticipating this very predictable thing and planning accordingly? Yes, I’m sure Putin will use it as a pretext, I doubt that Ukraine will be very surprised.
tthewFull MemberWith any luck, Ukraine will pre-empt it with something spectacular against a Crimean air base or weapons warehouse.
timbaFree MemberAnd their pontoon bridge over the Dnieper that replaces the HIMAR-ed Antonovsky Bridge
tthewFull MemberI’m surprised we’ve not heard more about that being sunk. Maybe it’s so ineffective it’s not worth the bother.
matt_outandaboutFull MemberWith any luck, Ukraine will pre-empt it with something spectacular against a Crimean air base or weapons warehouse.
Or just have counter battery operations just waiting for the first ‘bang’…
timbaFree MemberI’m surprised we’ve not heard more about that being sunk. Maybe it’s so ineffective it’s not worth the bother.
It isn’t complete yet. The Russians have been trying to build it using the Antonovsky Bridge remains as a shelter from HIMARs strikes.
UKR struck something nearby yesterday but it isn’t clear whether it was supply trucks negotiating the Antonovsky bridge or supply trucks on the ferry, but it went with a bang.
TASS reported that the strike killed civilian bridge repair teams and that nobody else was using the bridge. That doesn’t fit with the magnitude of the explosionseosamh77Free MemberI see the ISW are saying that’s Russia more or less declaring occupied zaporizhia as basically Russian territory now or independent at least. Guessing this is the Russians going towards annexation in Russian eyes/law.
I think Ukraine can basically say cheerio to land once we do get these official declarations.
Russian occupation officials in Zaporizhia Oblast have obliquely declared the region’s independence from Ukraine by falsely identifying Ukrainian citizens entering the occupied region as temporary asylum seekers. Head of the Zaporizhia Oblast occupation administration Yevheny Balitsky signed an order that designates Ukrainian citizens arriving in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast as temporary asylum seekers based on Russian law.[1] The order requires the registration of Ukrainian and Russian citizens based on their place of residence or place of arrival in the Russian-occupied parts of Zaporizhia Oblast and requires the distribution of temporary identification forms for all “stateless persons.” Ukrainians and Russians may register if they present proof of their temporary asylum application. This decree has various implications under both international law and domestic Russian law. International law states that a refugee is an individual from outside the country (or who is stateless) who is seeking “temporary asylum” in another country to escape persecution.[2] Russian law defines a refugee as a person ”who is outside of his/her country of nationality or habitual residence.”[3] Neither of these statuses properly apply to the majority of people crossing from unoccupied Ukraine into occupied Zaporizhia.
Russian occupation authorities are thus falsely classifying all Ukrainians entering occupied territories in Zaporizhia Oblast as refugees escaping persecution in Ukraine. The order also de facto identifies Ukraine as a separate country from the Zaporizhia Oblast entity, as defined by the occupation authority. By classifying all Ukrainians as refugees, Russian occupation authorities are establishing a new legal category that might have its own restrictions. Russian occupation authorities may use the refugee status to restrict Ukrainians who temporarily return to occupied territories after evacuating from them. The order will likely affect Ukrainian citizens traveling to occupied Kherson Oblast via the checkpoint in Vasylivka, Zaporizhia Oblast, as the order requires the registration of individuals at the point of arrival in the occupied Zaporizhia Oblast, and Vasylivka is the checkpoint serving Kherson as well as Zaporizhia Oblasts.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22
piemonsterFull MemberNot sure itll make any difference at all over the military reality tbh.
Whatever that turns out to be.
timbaFree MemberI see the ISW are saying that’s Russia more or less declaring occupied zaporizhia as basically Russian territory now or independent at least. Guessing this is the Russians going towards annexation in Russian eyes/law
If that’s the case then it’ll carry no more weight than the annexation of Crimea since 2014. The EU allowed business as usual then because of gas supplies and the large number of Russian-speakers in Crimea (whether they wanted Russian rule or not).
The difference now is that Russia kicked off in the EU-philic West, bordering the EU. Ukraine fought back with aid from other countries and now want Russia completely out
If they are successful in this it will bring a ruck of other problems, such as do areas like the Crimea want Ukraine/EU-philic rule? But that’s in the futureHistoric Zaporizhzhia covers some of modern Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Kherson and the Donetsk and was the home of the Cossacks. It all seems to revolve around Russian history, rather than a territorial agreement made in 1991 in exchange for which UKR gave its nuclear weapon option up. That and the largest nuclear power station in Europe
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