No refunds for special operation

The dead O Brien link is probably based on this

https://time.com/6207115/ukraine-train-fighter-pilots-russia/

Which appears to be a crowdsourced pilot training programme as much as anything else.

Im not convinced Ukraine currently have the ability to operate them successfully without a high loss rate. But im only going by “stuff I read on Twotter”

ATACMS in Ukraine, maybe, yes?

ATACMS

Im not convinced Ukraine currently have the ability to operate them successfully

There’s zero chance of NATO aircraft being operated by Ukrainians. Totally different philosophy of operation that they have nil experience of.

There’s zero chance of NATO aircraft being operated by Ukrainians. Totally different philosophy of operation that they have nil experience of.

And everyone focuses on the pilots, who will be the minority manpower requirment. You need technicians, avionics specialists, weapons techs, groundhandlers, it’s more than just converting a few pilots to type.

Also, Ukraine have said they aren’t interested in A10s. The A10 is only useful when you have total air superiority and the enemy doesn’t have any advanced anti-aircraft weapons. The idea of sending them was just an online fanboi fantasy, never based in reality.

An F16 with precision guided missiles would be much more useful. There was a useful Twitter thread a couple of weeks back on suitable aircraft for Ukraine, looking at the technical issues of radar and missiles. They would need an advanced radar to allow defense against Russian cruise missiles, plus long-range air-air missiles to stay out of the range of Russian surface-air missile defenses. It came down to the F16 or SAAB Gripen. The Gripen would be much more suitable for dispersal to short unprepared airstrips and is apparently less maintenance intensive than the F16.

never based in reality.

Which is an odd one, as this type of conflict, open country tank warfare against soviet forces was what the A-10 was originally designed for, and why it’s so heavily armoured.

Which is an odd one, as this type of conflict, open country tank warfare against soviet forces was what the A-10 was originally designed for, and why it’s so heavily armoured.

Shh. Don’t let the truth get in the way of the warhawks fantasies.

Add in the Apache to.that description as well.

Latest security assistance for the UKR:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3134457/775-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
Looks like a list for advancing rather than defending

Looks like a list for advancing rather than defending

Does it? You mean all the anti mine stuff?

Looks like a list for advancing rather than defending

To be fair that entire list of kit could enhance defensive and offensive capability. Tis all in the application.

Russia will shut Nordstream 1 for a few unscheduled days at the end of the month putting Europe under further pressure with their storage still not filled (76%) after the July shutdown.
Russia has offered Nordstream 2 as an option, but that wasn’t certified as a result of their invasion of Ukraine and German politicians seem determined not to go down that route
Ukraine and Poland have said that their systems can handle transporting Russian gas to Europe while NS1 is offline
Is it me or does Russia seem to be spoiling for Europe to get more militarily involved?

Is it me or does Russia seem to be spoiling for Europe to get more militarily involved?

Absolutely. Then they can fully play the victim. Or launch nukes. Or both.

Does it? You mean all the anti mine stuff?

As one example, yes. Mine clearance and mine-resistant vehicles

Tis all in the application

As one example, yes. Mine clearance and mine-resistant vehicles

Night vision being another. Allows you to effectively defend positions, but also allows you to navigate by foot or vehicle more tactically at night in offensive operations.

If you can see and your opposing number can’t, you have the tactical advantage.

If you can see and your opposing number can’t, you have the tactical advantage

Yep, the whole ‘own the night’ thing, apparently part of the reason why the second US-Iraq war was so short. As far as I know the Russkies don’t have these? That’s a nice thought

Creditors have agreed to a two-year $20bn debt-freeze for Ukraine.
I don’t understand financial markets but investors will also buy a small part of the debt with risk over the period picked up by Credit Default Swap, which is an insurance-like financial derivative

Yep, the whole ‘own the night’ thing, apparently part of the reason why the second US-Iraq war was so short. As far as I know the Russkies don’t have these? That’s a nice thought

And they’ve come a long way since then. Don’t know what gen UKR will be getting, but it’ll be a significant capability enhancement on the ground.

It came down to the F16 or SAAB Gripen. The Gripen would be much more suitable for dispersal to short unprepared airstrips and is apparently less maintenance intensive than the F16.

The SAAB is designed to be service by reservists / typically vehicle technicians. The Swedish airforce operated from dispersed, unheated, hardened shelters in the forest with roads often used at runways. A Swedish Airforce Captain took me on down a deserted ‘runway’ at over 200kph – a moose could have wandered out at any moment… 🤣

There’s zero chance of NATO aircraft being operated by Ukrainians. Totally different philosophy of operation that they have nil experience of.

And everyone focuses on the pilots, who will be the minority manpower requirment. You need technicians, avionics specialists, weapons techs, groundhandlers, it’s more than just converting a few pilots to type.

The best time to plant a tree is 100 years ago. The next best is now. Same applies to training on new aircraft and procedures. I would imagine that there is or will be a programme to train pilots and crew chiefs, weapons specialists etc in the US on F16s. Not a short term fix but Ukraine is going to need the capability in the coming years.

Justin Bronk from the Royal United Services Institute has talked about A10 vs F16 vs Grippen. He agrees that the A10 is not an option without air superiority including degradation of ground based anti air systems. He favours Grippen for the same reasons as thols2 and dovebiker but there are many, many more F16s available than Grippen.

From the Beeb this morning.

In other news, the United States has announced another tranche of weapons for Ukraine – this one totalling $775m.

The package includes more High Speed Anti Radiation Missiles (HARMs) for attack on Russian surface-to-air missile radar systems, along with early warning radar facilities.

The missiles are being integrated into existing Ukrainian aircraft – Mig-29s – not an easy task because they are Russian-built with very different avionics systems compared to Western jets. But war tends to accelerate development progress, so perhaps it is no surprise that this has been achieved by Ukraine.

Yes, it was Justin Bronk’s Twitter thread that I mentioned earlier. I don’t know enough about the technical details to make any judgement, but what he says seems to make sense.

A quick thread on the prospects for Western fighters for the Ukrainian Air Force (UkrAF) in the short-medium term
First, what are they needed for? Well there are two primary tasks, alongside others like SEAD and strike:
First primary one is intercepting cruise missiles (1/n) pic.twitter.com/cRRFLidQXF

— Justin Bronk (@Justin_Br0nk) August 9, 2022

Wouldn’t they usually fly in pairs anyway.
One jet tasked with delivering munitions, lgm’s or smart bombs. With another ECM aircraft jamming or destroying radar guided threats with harm ordnance.
Iirc in desert storm pamavia tornados were paired with Blackburn buccaneers for this purpose
The Buccaneer being a stable platform and the Tornado retro fitted with jamming pods.

Wouldn’t they usually fly in pairs

In a permisisve environment, yUp. Most platforms will operate as a pair as a minimum, mutual support isn’t a dirty word.

The exception being support aircraft (ISTA/tankers).

One jet tasked with delivering munitions, lgm’s or smart bombs. With another ECM aircraft jamming or destroying radar guided threats with harm ordnance.

To give Ukraine the ability to do that, at the very least you’d need to supply ECM pods to fit to F16s, which would mean training aircrews on how to use everything, plus providing all the technical and maintenance support. Much cheaper and faster to supply HIMARS systems.

What makes you think if they supplied aircraft and training they wouldn’t provide countermeasures?

The end of @thols2’s thread explains very well why the Ukrainians aren’t getting NATO aircraft.

What makes you think if they supplied aircraft and training they wouldn’t provide countermeasures?

The U.S. would not want to risk it falling into Russian hands. I’m pretty sure that there would be a stipulation that NATO supplied aircraft would not be used over Russian held territory.

The U.S. would not want to risk it falling into Russian hands.

It was my understanding that the HIMARS that have been supplied are stripped right back, basically v1.0 for that very reason.

Still seem to be very effective, so God knows how effective the latest versions would be?

Fair points. Artillery is good, but a poor substitute for aviation. But they have some nice shiny manoeuvre kit on its way so hopefully they can make the most of it.

visegrad24: Russian equipment has made it to the unconquered city of Kyiv!

The Russians wanted a military victory parade in the Ukrainian capital – they got a humiliation session instead. pic.twitter.com/g6zQRkkxG0

— GMan (Ґленн) ☘️🇬🇧🇺🇦🇺🇸🇵🇱🇮🇱🍊🌻 (@FAB87F) August 20, 2022

Those nice Ukrainians have put on a parade in Kyiv of Putin’s fighting vehicles

Oh dear

A UAV struck the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, according to Crimean officials. https://t.co/njijUYUFfKhttps://t.co/Nn4DSUP7Sh pic.twitter.com/ddBTNbAysL

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 20, 2022

Ukraine has put a bid in for some land next to the Russian embassy in Australia. Russia had a time scale tied into the land if they left it not built on it would go back to Australian ownership.
Nothing has been built so it’s up for grabs.

You have to hand it to Ukraine they know how stick the soft boot in.

Sevastopol air defence perhaps overcompensating tonight

In Sevastopol, Crimea. Russian anti-aircraft guns are at war with the sky. pic.twitter.com/FQFSnZphcU

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 20, 2022

Point is that I’m not sure it’s reassuring the populace who were upset that the kamikaze drone was able to fly in, in broad daylight and attack one of the most important military sites in the city!

Earlier today….

Day 178 of my 3 day war. Russians in Crimea are making "goodwill gesture" and leaving in panicked drove.

I remain a master strategist. pic.twitter.com/sYzvD0WBfc

— Darth Putin (@DarthPutinKGB) August 20, 2022

This also seems to be a development

BREAKING: It appears that the daughter of fascist neo-Nazi, Alexander Dugin – the brains behind Putin's annexation of Crimea – Darya Dugina, has been assassinated in Moscow tonight. pic.twitter.com/QB36uO8nZS

— KT "Special Intelligence Operation" (@KremlinTrolls) August 20, 2022

What a waste. Dugin could’ve been driving that.

He was supposed to be in it.
She was just as bad politically apparently uk sanctioned her in june.
I honestly cannot see Ukraine having much too do with this far too much to lose on the world stage and not enough to gain, even if he is Putins mastermind.
More like crime/oligarchy situation.

This does not bode well.

Update https://t.co/O1fwZarCva

— Petrit Selimi (@Petrit) August 20, 2022

I’d suggest that this is business as usual, spies are still being paid and the extra movement around similar installations to supply UKR makes security harder
The EU is set to discuss Schengen-area Tourist Visa bans for Russian Nationals at the end of the month. Some of the Baltic states already have visa bans in place

BREAKING: It appears that the daughter of fascist neo-Nazi, Alexander Dugin – the brains behind Putin’s annexation of Crimea – Darya Dugina, has been assassinated in Moscow tonight.

Konstantin Ivashenko survived an explosion in Mariupol on Saturday. He was appointed mayor of Mariupol in April by the pro-Russian Donetsk separatists after they’d captured the city.
An aide to the city’s deposed Ukrainian mayor wrote afterwards, “But this is just the beginning.”