While it’s obvious why Ukraine may want to attack military targets in Russia, doing do gives Putin a “self-defence” narrative to spin.

Appalling as it is, I can’t see they have any choice but to keep “offensive defence” within their own borders.

While it’s obvious why Ukraine may want to attack military targets in Russia, doing do gives Putin a “self-defence” narrative to spin.

The only thing that Putin has left is nuclear/chemical/biological weapons. He has basically been defeated in the north, that’s why his forces are retreating, and he hasn’t achieved his objectives in the east. If he was going to use WMDs, he would have used them by now. I think Ukraine is best to just destroy any Russian military targets they can, the faster they destroy Russia’s military capacity, the faster this thing will end.

I’m not sure – I think the Russians can still stand off at a relative distance and inflict huge suffering, which they continue to do. My sense is the counter attacks are quite localised and limited in nature, and this feels sensible. The Ukrainians cannot afford to overstretch themselves, even if the price is continued bombardment.

The battle in Mariupol looks truly mediaeval in nature. There was a letter from Sarajevo yesterday. It said no matter what you do, do not surrender. Defenders will be killed and civilians deported. Really horrifying. Lots of ‘analysts’ predicting the city’s fall is imminent, although these are the same people who said Putin would be celebrating in Kyiv within days so who knows.

The “retreat” could be to tempt the Ukrainian forces out into the open away from the urban landscape. Putin knows and is using every dirty trick in the book so far plus he’s probably got a few more to use

Pretty weird zoom call today. My colleague in Lviv had an air-raid siren go off during the call. She told us it was fine and we should continue, but the UK/US people in the call agreed it was probably best to finish early.

**** those **** Russians.

Seems the US Intelligence community is guiding Putin to an off-ramp by claiming he (Putin) has been mis-informed about Russian military struggles.

(Source: NY Times quoting “multiple US officials”)

Hopefully, some of those Russians have good life insurance….

If he is provided with a way out, how does that improve the situation? Ukraine will need reparations, global stability will not return, gas will not easily flow West.

If he is provided with a way out, how does that improve the situation?

Well the shelling would stop, that’s an improvement even without the other nice-to-haves.

If he is provided with a way out, how does that improve the situation? Ukraine will need reparations, global stability will not return, gas will not easily flow West.

Ukraine will not return to normal economically (could even be a failed state if their government is not permitted to run) but there might not be shelling which is perhaps a positive note.

As long as the sanctions are in place there will be no global stability in gas/energy supply. Those that will benefit from the sanctions are the few in the west that have monopolised or have stakes in the energy supply companies.

The current sanctions will hit Russia hard but the same can be said of the west (EU especially) in the next few years, once the few (energy supply companies) got their act in place, they will be the ones milking the people during this hard time. At the moment the western governments can still maintain stability but as living cost increases that will be the testing time for most western governments. Any of the western governments that does not step in to ease the living cost pressure will see themselves voted out, as the people are feeling the financial pressure. Hence, in my earlier threads I mentioned that sanctions were not a good idea as we too would feel the pain. It’s like cutting won nose to spike own face.

Therefore, be prepared for more increase in energy cost in the next few years and many may have to tighten their own belts.

Seems the US Intelligence community is guiding Putin to an off-ramp by claiming he (Putin) has been mis-informed about Russian military struggles.

(Source: NY Times quoting “multiple US officials”)

Hopefully, some of those Russians have good life insurance….

When US keep pouring fuel into the fire we all get burn …

If he is provided with a way out, how does that improve the situation?

He has a way out. All he has to do is withdraw Russian forces from Ukraine. The problem is that he cannot afford to be seen to fail after all that he’s inflicted on Russia so there is no “way out” that he would find acceptable. Russia invaded Ukraine without provocation so it is not Ukraine’s responsibility to make concessions to Russia. More importantly, they aren’t going to make the concessions that Putin wants, that’s why the fighting is continuing. It will not end until Russia withdraws from Ukraine. The faster Ukraine repels the invasion, the fewer innocent Ukrainian civilians will die, so anyone who has any humanitarian instinct should be hoping for a quick Ukrainian victory. That requires NATO countries to support Ukraine with shipments of weapons, food, medicine, etc. If Ukraine doesn’t get that support, they will not surrender, it will just prolong the war and the suffering.

When US keep pouring fuel into the fire we all get burn

The only country pouring fuel on the fire is Russia. All they have to do to end this is withdraw their troops.

While it’s obvious why Ukraine may want to attack military targets in Russia, doing do gives Putin a “self-defence” narrative to spin.

The only thing that Putin has left is nuclear/chemical/biological weapons.

I believe Putin has the support of a surprising percentage of his populace, but that’s fading as economic sanctions bite and friends come home in body bags. IMO perhaps the best thing that can happen for the West is for Putin to lose his home support in Russia. At this rate, people will soon start murmuring about regime change and he is forced to either withdraw and lick his wounds, or someone will be bold enough to put a bullet in the back of his head.

If (‘NATO backed’) Ukraine starts bombing Russian targets then that whole situation changes. The Russian public would understandably pivot to full-on support of the war, people will volunteer to fight and existing soldiers will fight harder.

The Russian public would understandably pivot to full-on support of the war

I read an article that was speaking to families of dead Russian soldiers and given what they’re fed on Russia state TV, many already think that they’re fighting a defensive war of unprovoked Ukrainian aggression.

Most of the bodybags are heading to the remote rural areas. Most ‘influential’ (Christian, urban) Russians won’t care.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/30/coffins-in-buryatia-ukraine-invasion-takes-toll-on-russias-remote-regions?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

IMO perhaps the best thing that can happen for the West is for Putin to lose his home support in Russia. At this rate, people will soon start murmuring about regime change and he is forced to either withdraw and lick his wounds, or someone will be bold enough to put a bullet in the back of his head.

This is an interesting thread. It’s pretty speculative and I suspect he might turn out to be spectacularly wrong about the end-game, but it is interesting.

The basic concept is that for certain unstable regimes (or even stable ones with no effective means of resolving internal disputes peacefully, particularly the succession of power) domestic power games are far more important than anything foreign, and that foreigners are

2/

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) March 31, 2022

Hence, in my earlier threads I mentioned that sanctions were not a good idea as we too would feel the pain. It’s like cutting won nose to spike own face.

I’m quite happy with that, it’s really only like chucking a few quid in the pot to help a just cause. Oh and it’s “spite” not “spike”.

I believe Putin has the support of a surprising percentage of his populace, but that’s fading as economic sanctions bite and friends come home in body bags. IMO perhaps the best thing that can happen for the West is for Putin to lose his home support in Russia

I think this.
Many Russians support him – but only due to the lies they are being fed. If somehow this could be reversed, it would really change things.

Not sure it will be that easy to reverse those opinions Russias ageing population have been fed these lies daily for years.

As for sanctions backfiring on the West, there’s definitely downsides at home, but so far resolve and unity is impressive, Putin fell into the trap of believing his own hype about Biden & figured once Merkel was gone EU wouldn’t be so united.
He also thought that he would s finding a f the likes of LePen, Salvini, Farage etc would be more effective (Tbf its only in brexit that he managed a payoff)

This is an interesting thread. It’s pretty speculative and I suspect he might turn out to be spectacularly wrong about the end-game, but it is interesting.

Yeah, that is interesting. Perhaps it’s not the populace that Putin needs to fear, but the oligarchs (‘kleptocrats’) around him.

Many Russians support him – but only due to the lies they are being fed. If somehow this could be reversed, it would really change things.

Most Russians support the war, apparently (~60%). At least, according to polls from a few weeks ago:

What do ordinary Russians really think about the war in Ukraine?

I feel it’s probably naive to think that we’re not being fed a narrative also. The UK and particularly the USA are rarely the ‘good guys’ in terms of international politics and have had a long history of trying to rid the world of the USSR/Russia’s influence. But those of us who enjoy a war-free existence have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo.

It feels to me perhaps like Russia is like a Tiger being backed into a cage and lashing out. They’re losing control of their geopolitical influence and are lashing out before they get backed further into a corner. It’s not entirely disingenuous for Putin to say that the West would like him gone, and that NATO expansion is the goal. Of course, it’s totally taboo for the West to talk openly about regime change or Ukraine joining NATO, but I’m sure that’s what many leaders would like.

Most Russians support the war, apparently (~60%)

Surely you mean most Russians, when asked by a person with a clipboard said they supported the war…

It feels to me perhaps like Russia is like a Tiger being backed into a cage

But it’s entirely a situation of its own making. The late nighties policy of accepting Russia into a post-Soviet world and all that goes with that (banking, loans, access to finance etc etc) in the hope that normalising their business interests would bring the country more into the “globalised economy” has been almost entirely hijacked by Putin’s gangsters to just make themselves insanely wealthy. Governments around the world are waking up to the fact that Putin’s Russia has never been and  isn’t going to ever be a normal functioning state, it’s literally a mafia gang using the functions of a state to intimidate everyone and everything around them to make sure that the flow of money into their accounts never stops.

 it’s totally taboo for the West to talk openly about regime change or Ukraine joining NATO, but I’m sure that’s what many leaders would like.

I think Ukraine are asking for a Clause 5 type deal that backed by US, UK, France that says the same sorts of things as the NATO version. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if more and more governments take a harder line towards Putin’s Regime. Poland has just said it wants no more fossil fuel imports from Russia by Dec this year. Finland and Sweden are looking at NATO membership, Germany has thrown out decades worth of agreements with Russia and as turned 180 degs on it’s stance about defence spending.

Surely you mean most Russians, when asked by a person with a clipboard said they supported the war…

I’m not sure. It’s hard to imagine what it must be like for the average Russian citizen: no independent TV, no independent newspapers, almost no opposition politicians, no Facebook, no Twitter, no Instagram, nothing but a constant barrage of propaganda. Putin has controlled the narrative for the last 20+ years – he ‘put Russia back on the map’ after the humiliation of the 90’s. He ‘liberated Chechnya from the Islamic fundamentalists’ (and Syria), he ‘brought peace to Armenia and Georgia’, and then he ‘saved the Russians in Donbas’. Now he is simply ‘going after the Nazis’.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if support for Putin and this war – especially outside the big cities, with all their young people who know what a VPN is – is genuinely high.

The late nighties policy of accepting Russia into a post-Soviet world and all that goes with that (banking, loans, access to finance etc etc) in the hope that normalising their business interests would bring the country more into the “globalised economy” has been almost entirely hijacked by Putin’s gangsters to just make themselves insanely wealthy. Governments around the world are waking up to the fact that Putin’s Russia has never been and isn’t going to ever be a normal functioning state, it’s literally a mafia gang using the functions of a state to intimidate everyone and everything around them to make sure that the flow of money into their accounts never stops.

This 100%
The Russian state is the most aggressive state in the world, the most corrupt state in the world and the most politically deceptive state in the world.
It could have been so much better for Russia, but Putin chose to be dickhead instead.

I know a few friends is Russia that I met whilst travelling in South America, FB and FB messenger is still working for them. They’re also well aware of what is going on and they’re very stressed about the situation that Putin is leading their country into.

The late nighties policy of accepting Russia into a post-Soviet world and all that goes with that (banking, loans, access to finance etc etc) 

I worked in Moscow in the late 90s putting in card systems for banks (including a subsidiary of Sberbank). I lived in “the American hotel” (the Radisson by Kievskya station) with many other brits and Americans. The US and EU were providing aid to Russia to e.g. modernise banks. A lot of that money went to make American and EU companies rich and pay people like me a premium. The West was definitely part of the problem then – it wasn’t just (some) Russians being greedy, western companies were too (although not on the scale of what became the oligarchs).

The ordinary Russian people that I worked with were great.

Yeh, I’ve worked with a few in the past that know the modern Russian (not that they trusted the UK government either having witnessed Tony’s ventures) state is lying to them, that was 11 years ago admittedly.

Ethnic Russians living outside the RF is another factor, the largest single population being in Ukraine. Over 3 million in the US, there will be family connections for different versions of events to feed through (both ways one assumes).

It’s hard to disguise the aggressor nation when one is invaded and one isnt.

Seems the US Intelligence community is guiding Putin to an off-ramp by claiming he (Putin) has been mis-informed about Russian military struggles.

build your enemies a golden bridge over. I think the west had some way to go to achieve this.

I believe Putin has the support of a surprising percentage of his populace, but that’s fading as economic sanctions bite and friends come home in body bags

From what I have read those who support Putin (usually older ethnic Russians who’s main information is from t.v.) are not those whose families ar fighting, (minorities from the regions). I am sure there are ethnic Russians fighting, but enough feed back information to upset enough of his supporters? I don’t know. Interesting question of balance.

well we’re here to help the Russian speakers snd he said 95% of us speak Russian and we’re fine. They said they heard that the World War II veterans of the town had been beaten in the patriot day and he said au contraire they’re venerated and there’s not very many of them left.

— Eleanor Beardsley (@ElBeardsley) March 31, 2022

I’m quite happy with that, it’s really only like chucking a few quid in the pot to help a just cause. Oh and it’s “spite” not “spike”.

You might be fine but a lot of people might not have the spare few quids to spend. I foresee Fish & Chips (my favourite) will cost £15 or even £20 in some places. All due to shortages couple with other increases etc. Not good.

Now that sunflower oil might be in shortage, I also foresee palm oil starting to creep in more and this will only increase deforestation in other part of the world as palm oil might be used as substitute.

If conventional warfare can come to a stalemate I do not see how sanctions could help apart from increasing the determination on those who are affected (ordinary Russian).

Murray
The West was definitely part of the problem then – it wasn’t just (some) Russians being greedy, western companies were too (although not on the scale of what became the oligarchs).

The same tricks currently copied by the CCP in other parts of the world. A bit like “loan sharks” slowly drawing others into commitment they cannot get out of.

The ordinary Russian people that I worked with were great.

Yes, they are brilliant people as I have Russian (ex)colleagues too and they are very cheerful and easy to get along with, to me anyway.

I’m sorry, but I’ve read some silly takes but “sanctions are going to ruin my chips” without any citations beyond mere conjecture is really, really quite something.

Without wishing to revisit the Brexit thread, there are other inflationary pressures at play for the nation’s second favourite meal. Potato imports are negligible against the value of British potato production. The type of oilseed that’s used to fry fish and chips in the UK would appear to be increasing.

This is yet another example of the type of nonsensical non-sequitur that is Chewkw’s trademark move when confronted with logic.

I foresee Fish & Chips (my favourite) will cost £15 or even £20 in some places.

LOL. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians being murdered and you think the price of fish and chips should be what everyone is concerned about.

I do not see how sanctions could help apart from increasing the determination on those who are affected

The sanctions are crippling the Russian economy. They simply won’t be able to produce the equipment that a modern army needs. The educated Russians who are essential for a modern economy know what’s happening in Ukraine and the sanctions will make it very clear to them that Putin has to go if they want their middle-class lifestyles back.

Thousands of Ukrainian civilians being murdered and you think the price of fish and chips should be what everyone is concerned about.

The unnecessary deaths of thousands of civilians as a result of Russian aggression really is of more importance (to me at least) than fried food related conjecture. There must be consequences brought to bear on Putin and his acolytes, otherwise it’s highly likely that Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could be next up for invasion.

Sanctions would appear to be slowing Russian tank production.

The educated Russians who are essential for a modern economy know what’s happening in Ukraine and the sanctions will make it very clear to them that Putin has to go if they want their middle-class lifestyles back.

They aren’t waiting around for that to happen, they are leaving Russia in droves.  I doubt they’ll be in any rush to go back.

“According to one estimate by a Russian economist, as many as 200,000 Russians have left their country since the start of the war”. This was on the 13th March, numbers probably much higher now – though a clamp down on travel and Western Sanctions on airlines etc will obviously make it a bit harder to leave.

Russia faces brain drain as thousands flee abroad

LOL. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians being murdered and you think the price of fish and chips should be what everyone is concerned about.

Not making the situation lite but it was on the BBC news earlier and they were talking about it in detail. I, too, was rather surprised as BBC went into details about how the Russian sanctions actually affected Fish & Chips shops. Then went on about energy price increase starting 1 April etc …

The sanctions are crippling the Russian economy. They simply won’t be able to produce the equipment that a modern army needs.

They would have done that long time ago but they did not which means they can never produce equipment as predicted, as I doubt their manufacturing capability. (China CCP on the other hand is different).

The educated Russians who are essential for a modern economy know what’s happening in Ukraine and the sanctions will make it very clear to them that Putin has to go if they want their middle-class lifestyles back.

They are also the least impacted, if they are the middle-class type, as we know all over the world when there is some economy downturn the “least” affected tend to be those of middle-class people.

Unfortunately in the short term I think the only place this will be decided is on the battlefield. I can’t see much progress being made in the peace talks until a stalemate has been achieved. There is much talk among Western military and political analysts of Russia regrouping and refocusing. Time will tell if this gives them more military success but most experts have consistently over-estimated Russian military capabilities.

In the meantime all we can do is exert as much pressure as possible through sanctions and massive amounts of aid (both military and humanitarian – it’s no good having weapons if you have no food or medicine)..

They are also the least impacted, if they are the middle-class type, as we know all over the world when there is some economy downturn the “least” affected tend to be those of middle-class people.

This is not a downturn, it’s every multi-national company fleeing Russia and most technology based jobs evaporating. The Russian middle-class will be destroyed by this because their jobs and lifestyles are based on globalism.

Regarding Russians supporting the war… I have just finished a book about the Reserve Police (typically older men with no particular political allegiance) in Germany during WW2 and their involvement in the mass-murder of Jews. At the end, the author hypothesises as to how it happened – in the main, Germans weren’t fiercely anti-Semite however they became ‘indifferent’ to the suffering, slowly absorbing Nazi propaganda and just let it happen – and the more they let it happen, the more extreme the atrocities became. In my opinion the current situation feels similar – the war isn’t really effecting Russians (in regard to direct suffering), they are believing what is being told to them and they are, well, indifferent. And, if they remain indifferent…

An interesting read if you have a spare 10 mins.

https://euvsdisinfo.eu/do-not-resist-the-liberation/

“If we were to believe the world painted by the Kremlin’s disinformation brush, all the world’s ills are now manifesting in Ukraine, and none of them is attributable to Putin’s decision to start a wanton war of aggression against a peaceful neighbour. Evidence, facts and eyewitness testimonies from the countless innocent victims in Ukraine do not seem to matter to the pro-Kremlin pundits, who have long since gone through the looking glass to a world where the indiscriminate bombing of cities means “help” and whole-sale occupation is “liberation”.

The whole mantra of do not resist Mother Russia made me think of some of what I have read on this thread.

Dozens of Russian troops ‘fall ill with radiation poisoning’ at Chernobyl

If true, more evidence of the colossal stupidity of Russian military commanders. Takes a significant exposure to produce those kinds of acute illnesses, and that means disturbing (digging up) long-buried shit in some of the worst-contaminated zones.

Really good points, and the information war is absolutely critical. Even if we can’t get through Putin’s wall now, it is really key that evidence of Russian crimes is collected and documented.. Moscow is already saying ‘it isn’t us’ and there will come a point when others support them.

Last week on the BBC breakfast one of the military ministers mentioned some Russian military equipment sailing from the east of the country presumably it will try to entre the black sea at some point. However I cant find any mention of it, anyone else know anything about it?