Nuclear weapons are a deterrent, and should be used as a last resort

I’m going to agree with Chewie on this. They are being used right now and are doing their job. IE deterring NATO from intervening in Ukraine, deterring Russia from invading any NATO territory. This is what they are for and this is what they are doing very well.
They might well be capable of destroying a city but that is not their job, their job is to threaten to destroy a city.
.
I think where I disagree with Chewie is that he appears to be saying that nuclear war is so terrible that everything must be done to prevent it, including conceding defeat and letting nuclear armed states dominate weaker neighbours.
I take the view that this would only be a short term fix and would just kick the can down road, appeasement will lead to future demands, as demonstrated by Crimea, and that sooner or later a stand has to be made and that sooner is invariably less difficult than later.
Chewie’s arguement will avoid WW3, mine will if everyone acts rationally, as they did in the Cuban Missile Crisis for example.

A treaty with Russia ain’t worth jot I’m afraid.

They’d given security guarantees to Ukraine before and have since decided otherwise.

Russia will be back again in a decade, they haven’t gone a decade without attacking a neighbouring country.

I take the view that this would only be a short term fix and would just kick the can down road, appeasement will lead to future demands, as demonstrated by Crimea, and that sooner or later a stand has to be made and that sooner is invariably less difficult than later.

Yes, it is a short term fix. As long as I don’t see a nuke war during my life time that is good enough. Beyond that I don’t know as I no longer exist after this life time.

Most people can see very clearly that Russia is the aggressor in this.

True, most western people can see this but…..

there will be a lot of people in many parts of the world (Africa, Asia, South America for example) who will view Nato/EU/USA etc as the aggressor for a variety of reasons. Long held grievances from European colonial occupation of many countries and subsequent teaching of the atrocities committed for, in some cases, hundreds of years will paint the aforementioned groups as being just as evil as we in the west view Nazi Germany. The Internet means anyone these days can find a source online to back up their own beliefs within seconds and it reinforces prejudices, often based on blatant lies and misinformation. To say most people are against the Russian invasion is wrong as its not being reported in the way we see it on our TV screens in many parts of the world

Yes, it is a short term fix. As long as I don’t see a nuke war during my life time that is good enough. Beyond that I don’t know as I no longer exist after this life time.

I thought you were coming back.

Slight distraction as most tend to get the term wrong.

Very briefly.

I thought you were coming back.

You are confusing ‘reincarnation’ with the term ‘rebirth’.

That’s former is Hinduism (soul coming back) while the latter is Buddhism (no soul coming back but other bits and pieces of remnants of past lives).

Soul indicates that you will be back with the same soul in a new shell. No soul means coming back as bits and pieces of karmic energy with no connection to the past, which is also the notion of “no self”.

Who knows bits and pieces of my karmic energy might come back as something …

True, most western people can see this but…..

there will be a lot of people in many parts of the world (Africa, Asia, South America for example) who will view Nato/EU/USA etc as the aggressor for a variety of reasons.

I tend to doubt that, most of the world tends to sway more to the western ways, or are linked more to western countries and news outlets, Russia just hasn’t really been moving forward or keeping up appearances outside of their region, you look a China and how they’ve sought out power and natural resources over the last generation, same with a few others, all they see with Russia just now is a threat to the status quo, which scares them more than any event that happened 100 or so years ago.

most of the world tends to sway more to the western ways,

Around a quarter of the global population are in India and China, any/most of the hundreds of millions of poorly educated people in parts of Africa, Asia, the Middle East, South America will have no access to reliable information and probably have no interest in a European war either way as their own lives are a daily struggle to feed themselves and their families. I have no doubt the forthcoming famines in many poor countries, due to large quantities of the world’s staple crops and fertiliser being produced by Russia and Ukraine will be blamed not on Putins invasion, but on western sanctions, by autocratic regimes across the developing world with historic trading relations with Russia. The world is a bigger and more complex place than a lot of people realise these days

I guess it’s a lot easier to speculate sitting inside a relatively ‘safe’ country protected as we are. I remember reading an article years ago from one of the BBC global reporters (John Simpson maybe?) about The Falklands War. He said it was one of the first things the dictators he’d spoken to across the years mentioned to him. They were absolutely blown away that Thatcher would send such overwhelming force across the world for a cold rock. It made them scared of Britain.

I’m too left wing and too much of a pacifist to really put myself in that mindset. I think it’s absolutely repugnant that the US roll out fleets of Apaches at the Grand Prix and Nuclear bomber fly by’s for the Super Bowl. But they know that there are dozens of vile regimes watching these events and it’s all a big reminder that you do not F with us. Power matters and projection of that power matters more, as sad as that fact is.

“We live in a world that has walls and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns”

It looks like the negotiation is roughly as predicted …

Russia are desperate to start peace talks because they have committed about 75% of their immediately available combat forces to Ukraine, and a good percentage of that doesn’t exist anymore. I doubt Ukraine would negotiate anything away despite what they might say to get Russia to the table to start talking. To be clear, it’s not Russia who have the upper hand here.

Didn’t Russia say “we’re not gonna invade Ukraine, promise” right before they invaded Ukraine?

How can you possibly negotiate with them.

Who is going to enforce any agreement?

Quick show of hands, without googling or researching, who can name our current UN Secretary General.

I bet that all of you could at name at least one previous incumbent.

How can you possibly negotiate with them.

Who is going to enforce any agreement?

^^^not a chance of naming such without google, sadly

Antonio Gueteres? (sp) I thought He’s made numerous pleas for peace since the invasion (and also been quite vocal about the climate crisis) I’ve largely heard that in radio news bulletins. I didn’t think he’d been any more or less high profile than his predecessors.

How can you possibly negotiate with them.

Who is going to enforce any agreement?

You can’t.

But maybe, just maybe, there’s enough stamina and resources for the Ukrainian’s to rout Russia, to get them to a point where privately they are at gunpoint and on thier knees, and publicly they can allow PooTin to keep enough pride that he walks away.

They were absolutely blown away that Thatcher would send such overwhelming force across the world for a cold rock. It made them scared of Britain.

To be fair that was down to her anti military attitude previously and the “overwhelming force” really wasnt. It was just about enough lucky breaks and professional skill to win. If they had waited another year or so then she would have destroyed the military enough it couldnt have succeeded.
The subtle force demonstrated previously was far better in terms of both lives and money lost. There is a story that under the previous Labour government when the Argentinians started making hints about an invasion a counter hint was made that a hunter killer sub had been deployed to the area. As HMS conqueror sadly had to prove that would be a severe problem for any attempted invasion and so they backed off.

To be clear, it’s not Russia who have the upper hand here.

Well done to Ukraine in that case. They are finally free/won!

Didn’t Russia say “we’re not gonna invade Ukraine, promise” right before they invaded Ukraine? How can you possibly negotiate with them. Who is going to enforce any agreement?

I don’t think it is wise to let the “enemy” know the plan before an invading.

I don’t think it is wise to let the “enemy” know the plan before an invading.

Glib but it doesnt really answer the question does it?
Lets take the Russian demand for “demilitarisation”. Exactly why would it be in Ukraines interest to disarm so the Russians can have another go next year hoping that against a disarmed country they might make a bit better showing.

Russia already has a demographic problem, a brain drain is one of the last things that it needs. Russia also has an endemic corruption problem with it’s military. The Russian invasion has in part been stymied by maintenance issues. There’s reliable evidence that Russian military personnel have a morale problem. Not only that, getting bogged down in the beginning of mud season would seem to be the result of poor mid term planning (see above).

In short, Putin has painted Russia into a corner and the lean, autocratic style of Russian government is almost paralysed in the face of a quickly evolving military campaign.

Explosion at Russian ammo depot inside Russia 💥

Ukrainians claiming it as a missed strike, tho Russia has recent form on catastrophic accidents at their ammo depots

Ukrainian journalist Yury Butusov claims this was a strike from a Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile. 4/https://t.co/W7pDwRIFf2 pic.twitter.com/D7VlErssr9

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 29, 2022

Exactly why would it be in Ukraines interest to disarm so the Russians can have another go next year hoping that against a disarmed country they might make a bit better showing.

If it was Putins plan it’s backfired spectacularly, the irony is that Ukraine was never likely to join NATO and no country was willing to sell them long range missles that would be any kind of real threat to Russia

Now the countries bordering Russia are scrambling to upgrade their own armies and some now considering NATO membership fir the first time!

Yep, hubris and all that. Russia’s neighbours are going to be even more on the defensive.

Also, for once I agree with Chewkw, his “save face” post made sense insofar as there needs to be a way to de-escalate conflict with an ossified, paranoid Russian leadership. Perhaps the offer of retirement and a stipend for them to retire in Dubai a la Idi Amin (albeit Saudi Arabia in his case) might be such an option.

Cessation of hostilities does not return Ukraine to where it was before this all kicked off. If reparations demands and a hostile sanctions regimen are sustained do you not put Russia even further into the mould of 1930s Germany?

Is there an ethical answer with a hope in hell of actually happening and not exacerbating future security? Does capitalism just suck up standing Ukraine back on its feet as a balance sheet item?

Ukrainian journalist Yury Butusov claims this was a strike from a Ukrainian Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile.

I had to Google where that is.
I had no idea Ukraine had anything with that sort of range!

Tbh I’d be sceptical of whether it was a ukranian strike,

Cessation of hostilities does not return Ukraine to where it was before this all kicked off. If reparations demands and a hostile sanctions regimen are sustained do you not put Russia even further into the mould of 1930s Germany?

Given the geographical size and sparse population of Russia, together with frankly terrible infrastructure it’s more likely that Russian republics might take a chance breaking ties with Moscow.

Is there an ethical answer with a hope in hell of actually happening and not exacerbating future security?

The Marshall plan fits fairly well despite its various failings. Sometimes you have to accept its worth spending a few quid now to avoid dealing with the mess later.

It could just as easily have been an “accident” as an actual accident. One person killed and 8 injured? That was a phenomenally large bang! Bits landing 15km away!

The Marshall plan fits fairly well despite its various failings. Sometimes you have to accept its worth spending a few quid now to avoid dealing with the mess later.

Agreed. It’s why I asked if anyone could name a UN Secretary General without googling or otherwise cheating.

It’s why I asked if anyone could name a UN Secretary General without googling or otherwise cheating.

Dag Hammarskjöld and Kofi Annan. Although I did cheat to check spelling. I vaguely got Ban Ki-moon s well but inaccurate enough an initial google on what I thought the name was probably didnt count.
The problem with the UN is its deliberately defanged. Governments wont give up power to make it truly useful and you then have the extra problem of the permanent security council and their veto.
It ends up with the UN only being effective when all the major powers and most of the minor ones agree.
To misquote Stalin how many divisions does the UN have on its own?
This is picked up by the media since why waste time on something irrelevant?

Explosion at Russian ammo depot inside Russia 💥.

The video is from 2019 and a few thousand miles away. But the comment about the missile I think is not referring to that.

There was also an explosion in Belgograd which is close to the border with Ukraine. However that’s now being claimed as an accident here…

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1508894147683495956

It could just as easily have been an “accident” as an actual accident.

Is this an accident waiting to happen or an “accident” waiting to happen?

Russian soldiers unloading anti-tank mines in Lugansk.

Not the most professional bunch out there.pic.twitter.com/vJP4pfG7Zs

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) March 29, 2022

January 25, 1945 — Germany announces a drastic reduction in offensive military operations around Bastogne… https://t.co/joHGqr0ZpJ

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) March 29, 2022

Push further where? Your occasional reminder that there have always been NATO countries bordering Russia from the day it was created.

Well, Russia is certainly pushing countries towards NATO

https://www.dw.com/en/finland-will-join-nato-former-finnish-pm-alexander-stubb/av-61252860

Former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb says he believes Helsinki will soon apply for NATO membership. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has increased public support for NATO in Finland to record levels.

That, assuming it happens and isn’t posturing by Finland as a means to tell Putin to **** off (or just a random talking head ex PM), would add a 1340km long extra NATO.

Hard to keep up with all the misdirection and info wars. But it was Putin objective to suffer heavy losses, have a stalled invasion highlighting the significant limitations of the RFA in an offensive campaign, unify the west, enlarge and strengthen NATO, knock back the Russian economy a few decades, and turn a country Russia claims is so close it’s basically part of Russia into something that hates Russia right? I mean, it makes perfect sense to send a former ally onto a path leading it to be one of your most most committed enemies right? Especially when that country is on your “doorstep”.

Excellent thread

Is this likely to change now, as Russia appears not to be winning in Ukraine? It all depends probably on how this war ends. If Russia clearly looses, gets defeated, there is a chance that Russia finally accepts a reality that it cannot change.

— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) March 30, 2022

Most importantly, the West must do everything to arm and train Ukraine's military; namely once this war is over. The more Ukraine is capable to defend its borders against Russia, the more secure it will be, and the more likely it is that Russia finally accept the new reality.

— Ulrich Speck (@ulrichspeck) March 30, 2022

“Dag Hammarskjöld and Kofi Annan. Although I did cheat to check spelling. I vaguely got Ban Ki-moon s well but inaccurate enough an initial google on what I thought the name was probably didn’t count.”

I’m surprised no one’s mentioning Boutros Boutros Ghali, did none of you watch Chanel 9 Neus?

Recycling news again but reports of a massive data hack removing 65Tb of records from the state airline…

According to Russian media reports, on March 26, the IT infrastructure of the Federal Air Transport Agency was subjected to a powerful hacker attack. As a result of the attack, approximately 65 TB of data were destroyed, including the entire document flow.

It is noted that as a result of a hacker attack, files on servers, email correspondence for a year and a half were destroyed, and the system “Gosuslug “.

Currently, the company’s specialists are searching for the register of aircraft and aviation personnel. According to the source, the Prosecutor General’s Office and the FSB are investigating the incident.

So following other sanctions on spares for aircraft, no maintenance or pilot records…

So the Russian cyberwar capabilities turned out to be as effective as their tank army.

I read an article in January on the new Cruise missile system Ukraine was developing, due to be ready by summer. This was said to be one of the reasons for the timing of the invasion now, instead of waiting out the Rasputitsa mud season.

If the system was almost ready for introduction to service, it would make sense that they have some capability from initial trials.

I thought that was in place a year ago? Only exists because Trump tore up treaties and joined Putin in rolling back on all the hard work done over decades as regards disarmament. Slow hand clap for the USA there. We’re in a new arms race, for medium and small countries, thanks to self inflated “strong men”. From here on it will accelerate thanks to this invasion. A depressing time ahead.

Seems like Putin and co are really missing Don

Meanwhile on Russian state TV:

Host Evgeny Popov says it's time for the Russian people to call on Americans to change "the regime in the U.S." before its term expires "and to again help our partner Trump to become President."https://t.co/orPMoKoxwG pic.twitter.com/sPVDhVWm6Q

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) March 29, 2022