They would have done that long time ago but they did not which means they can never produce equipment as predicted

Wrong, wrong, wrongity wrong. Sanctions enacted since 2014 have slowed the development of advanced Russian defence programmes.

If Chewkw is going to complain about the price of his fish and chips, then he needs to understand how Russian influence in the 2016 Referendum has already hiked the cost of his favourite snack.

The exodus of skilled Russian workers is hardly going to help the Russian economy, moreover once skilled workers leave, who then administers logistics and business functions within Russia itself?

but most experts have consistently over-estimated Russian military capabilities.

This is because the Russian state is full of Billybullshit.

I’m surprised they can afford an army at all with the amount of corruption that goes on and the billions of dollars that have been ripped off the state.
What they do have is a load of old rubbish.
I’ve never known anyone to go looking for Russian manufactures when purchasing anything.
I’d be surprised if they actually have all the nukes they claim to have, that’s probably Billybullshit as well.

I recently saw a Ukrainian woman being interviewed on Al Jazeera. She said one of the hardest things for her was talking to Russian relatives over the phone about what was happening and being called a liar.
Propaganda always has been and always will be a part of war. I don’t know what it’s like now, but I look back on what I was taught about the Crusades at school, where it was very much put across that we were the good guys. Many things I’ve seen and read about that time since leaving school contradict what I was taught and lead me to believe lies are still being perpetrated nearly a 1000 years later.
On another note, I don’t know if anyone else saw the programme (1st in a series) about Putin and the west on BBC2 last night. Very interesting.

but most experts have consistently over-estimated Russian military capabilities.

In general, it’s probably safer to overestimate a rival’s ability than to underestimate it. The problem here seems to be that Russia had huge amounts of gear, which is easy to count, but they didn’t have the logistic support or training to use the gear they had on paper.

A huge problem seems to be the medieval conscription system, with hazing as an entrenched part of the system. That points to poor leadership at lower levels, if you have to torment your underlings, they have no loyalty, only fear. Conscripts who are abused will focus on surviving so putting in the time to do preventative maintenance won’t be a priority. Having tens of thousands of tanks and trucks doesn’t matter if they haven’t been maintained.

LOL. Thousands of Ukrainian civilians being murdered and you think the price of fish and chips should be what everyone is concerned about.

In chewkw’s defence, I think he was responding to a point about sanctions also causing economic headwinds in the countries doing the sanctioning, where one poster said they don’t mind, it’s a bit like chucking some money in the pot.

But middle class mountain bikers generally aren’t the people that really feel the pinch. There are plenty of people in the UK far less able to manage an increase in the price of food than the average STWer.

That said, it’s not sanctions that will cause the Ukrainian agriculture sector to be unproductive this year; it’s Russian tanks. And Putin can remove those tanks any time he chooses.

That said, it’s not sanctions that will cause the Ukrainian agriculture sector to be unproductive this year; it’s Russian tanks. And Putin can remove those tanks any time he chooses.

Quite.

I’d be surprised if they actually have all the nukes they claim to have, that’s probably Billybullshit as well.

They only need a couple…

I’d be surprised if they actually have all the nukes they claim to have, that’s probably Billybullshit as well.

Also, the strategic missile forces are a completely different service. They will be staffed by professional soldiers, not conscripts. Even if only 10% of their stuff works, that’s still 500 warheads. Very effective deterrent.

They only need a couple…

probably, if what they have actually work. But that’s not the point. The point is I bet they’re lying through their teeth about having the worlds largest nuclear arsenal.

the Russian state is full of Billybullshit.

And has been for sometime. The book ‘The Liberators: My life in the soviet army’ by Victor Suvorov all about his time in the 1960s is quite illuminating. He went on to defect to the UK and resurfaced with a different name teaching soviet military studies to the UK armed forces…..

The point is I bet they’re lying through their teeth about having the worlds largest nuclear arsenal.

The number of missile silos and submarines can be counted from space. The only question is how many of them would work. Even if it’s only 10%, it’s an effective deterrent.

Also, the strategic missile forces are a completely different service. They will be staffed by professional soldiers, not conscripts

Which doesnt mean they will be that professional. The USA for example has had some serious issues with its ICBM crews morale with them becoming a forgotten part of the military. Some rather worrying drops in standards.

Putin is on now about cutting off the gas to ‘unfriendly’ European states tomorrow unless the pay for it in Roubles. He’ll be asking for it in groats or chickens next, the mad bastard!

Does anyone seriously believe he’ll cut off his only source of revenue?

Putin signs order demanding gas payments in roubles from Friday https://t.co/P3wP0Os1Qu

— The Guardian (@guardian) March 31, 2022

The USA for example has had some serious issues with its ICBM crews morale with them becoming a forgotten part of the military. Some rather worrying drops in standards.

They’re still a very effective deterrent force. Enough of them would work to destroy all the major cities on the planet.

…the indiscriminate bombing of cities means “help” and whole-sale occupation is “liberation”.

War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength.

I’m sure this comparison has already been made, but I re-read 1984 recently.
Sadly it remains as relevant and prescient as ever.

Maybe Ukraine should make a “One time special free holiday!” offer to Russians.

Free transport from any major or minor city in Russia for “a carefully designed cultural and shopping experience” in the “newly denazified and completely peaceful Kyiv”.

Return via the Lubyanka, Moscow.

All for 3 coupons from the Ежедневная почта and 10 Roubles. No, 20 Roubles. Hang on, it’s now 30 Roubles…

Does anyone seriously believe he’ll cut off his only source of revenue?

I’m wondering where this is going, Germany and France have said they won’t be paying in Roubles, even though Russia seems to have said they can pay a Russian bank in Euros/ Dollars who will then change the money to Roubles.

Germany has started some measures for if the gas is cut off, but I can’t imagine they could go long without gas from Russia. I wonder who will capitulate first (hopefully Russia).

Looking at this graph, the EU imports gas at a fairly steady rate, building up a reserve over the summer and then drawing it down over the winter. So we could probably get through the next 6 months ok, but after that, it’ll get pretty hairy. Could Germany turn their mothballed nuclear power stations back on in that time?

Does anyone seriously believe he’ll cut off his only source of revenue?

I think it’s a case of who blinks first. And worryingly, I don’t think Putin actually does blink.

I read chewks posts and despair. He thinks the US offering Putin a way out that saves face is a bad thing? If the US had Russia releasing nuclear and biological weapons in it’s country like the UK they would not be so accommodating. So I shake my head and move along.

Anyway…

I was listening to a podcast this morning about the the Falklands ‘disagreement’ on the 40th anniversary. (The rest is history)

The similarities to Ukraine are chilling.

A load of conscripts told to liberate this territory where you will greeted as saviours. The big old army who is really great at battering down internal resistance from dissidents and poets, but a bit rusty on a real battlefield. Crap old gear. A nationalistic belief that this land you are marching into is yours by right. No compromise, even when it is offered to you.

And an opponent who you think will be a pushover, because the rest of the world doesn’t want to really get involved.

At least this lesson from history ended with the fascistic totalitarian govt of the invader being overthrown and a working democracy put in it’s place.

Fingers crossed.

I’m confused by the whole buying gas in Roubles thing.

Germany etc. can still buy gas in euros but the (Russian) bank they pay it into uses that to buy Roubles.

Couldn’t Russia do that anyway?

What does Mad Vlad’s announcement actually change? I suspect it changes a lot but I’m simply not understanding the concept.

To pay in Rubles they’ll need to buy them, which adds value to the Ruble

Whatever happens and whoever blinks first, I hope it acts as a catalyst to move away from carbon energy at a significantly increased.

It’s just a “do as I say” ego thing. I suppose it draws the population of Russia away from more pressing issues on the news.

I do agree with piemonster if it pushes the west away from carbon then I’m all for that.

BaronVonP7

No, 20 Roubles. Hang on, it’s now 30 Roubles…

The Rouble is away back up to pre war levels, at the moment looks like it was only temporary collapse. Similar story if you look at USD and EUR.

Good episode of Arthur Snell’s Doomsday Watch podcast today with Dr Mike Martin who I’m sure has been quoted earlier on the thread. Good explainer for non-military types from an ex-army dude.

The Rouble is away back up to pre war levels, at the moment looks like it was only temporary collapse.

Stability is tied (currently) to the gold reserves.

And no O in Ruble.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruble#English_spelling

gold reserves

It’ll turn out to be pyrite, someone’s skimmed it all away….

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruble#English_spelling

I A) stand corrected

And B) will now use Robble instead

piemonster
Free Member
To pay in Rubles they’ll need to buy them, which adds value to the Ruble

No, I get that but if an EU country still pays in Euro’s to a nominated Russian bank (which the Beeb says they setup can)…and that bank simply buys roubles itself to pay Gazprom (sp?) then it doesn’t really change anything for Germany/ France or whatever.

That’s what I don’t get. The bill is still being paid for in euros and just converted once in Russia. That could be done before Putin’s “order” anyway?

I iz confuzzled.

Just started listening to BBC’s Ukrainecast from the start. Given that it’s been recorded (almost) daily it’s a really good record of how things have developed…

That’s what I don’t get. The bill is still being paid for in euros and just converted once in Russia. That could be done before Putin’s “order” anyway?

I’m guessing there’ll be a large element of control/ego and great propaganda for Vlad that once again the evil west has bowed to the mighty Russian bear.

@doris5000 that graph on gas consumption doesn’t show the summer injection rates which were low leading into winter. Was due to high prices meaning they weren’t filled up to anything like normal. If there had been a significant cold snap, Germany would have been seriously short.

They are thinking of not closing down their 3 remaining nuclear stations this year, but the others are in decommissioning, not mothballed.

PJM1974
Wrong, wrong, wrongity wrong. Sanctions enacted since 2014 have slowed the development of advanced Russian defence programmes.

That’s what I am saying. Russia cannot do it. They might have prototypes but that’s it.

doris5000
Looking at this graph, the EU imports gas at a fairly steady rate, building up a reserve over the summer and then drawing it down over the winter. So we could probably get through the next 6 months ok, but after that, it’ll get pretty hairy. Could Germany turn their mothballed nuclear power stations back on in that time?

Yes, once the reserve is gone that will be trying time. I think Germany has no choice unless they can have alternative energy source in a short period of time. The next 3 years will be hard for everyone if energy source is not sufficient.

boomerlives
I read chewks posts and despair. He thinks the US offering Putin a way out that saves face is a bad thing? If the US had Russia releasing nuclear and biological weapons in it’s country like the UK they would not be so accommodating. So I shake my head and move along.

Eh? I am not sure of any offering to Putin in the news at all (have not checked today). I thought they have a stalemate now as some have suggested with many Russian casualties?

pk13
I do agree with piemonster if it pushes the west away from carbon then I’m all for that.

Is that even possible now? I think it will have to postpone until things settle down.

War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength.
I’m sure this comparison has already been made, but I re-read 1984 recently.
Sadly it remains as relevant and prescient as ever.

Scary considering that history is repeating itself.

binners
Does anyone seriously believe he’ll cut off his only source of revenue?

He will do it. But in the background there will be plenty of negotiation going on.

Once again, Russia’s oligarch class are legging it out of there. Stalin had the benefit of American manufactured armaments including Studebaker trucks, P39 Airacobras, P47s, Sherman tanks etc to supplement immature home grown armaments and the almost cataclysmic Great Purge. Russia might well follow the same path as Stalin, but their economic and manpower resources are stunted, not to mention their ability to resupply ammunition, soldiers and artillery.

Pragmatically speaking, now would be a really good time to offer Putin a comfortable retirement in Dubai.

The Japanese Government over the last few decades has refrained from such statements due to the possibility of hurting Soviet/Russian Relations, but due to the Invasion of Ukraine and Japanese Sanctions on Russia, Diplomatic Relations between the two are at a Severe Low Point.

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) March 31, 2022

Japan has Officially Stated after negotiation between the two Countries since the end of WW2 recently entirely collapsed that the entire Kuril Island Chain is Japanese Sovereign Territory and is being Illegally Occupied by Russian Forces.

This is getting interesting now.

Spiegel article about the experience of an occupied town

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/liberated-from-the-russians-a-visit-to-trostyanets-after-the-end-of-the-occupation-a-c088be53-5f6c-4059-8d46-68803276e473

The occupiers left behind destruction, dead civilians and a shaken populace – who say the Russian soldiers didn’t even know why they were there in the first place.

What do we think about the helicopter attack on the Russian oil depot?