UK Election!

They aren’t going to win many seats

That in itself is a problem for me. They should win seats regardless of how much any of us, especially me, dislike the idea. We will be ending up with a bunch of disillusioned and pissed off people who dont feel represented. That never ends well.

Surely its just a load of guff?

For me the main problem is they are addressing a serious problem ignored by the other parties. They shouldnt be getting the votes because the other parties should be doing something to address their needs rather than chasing first past the post.
That a chancer like Farage is doing so well shows we have serious problems with our democracy.

Sense of perspective, yes reform have done ‘well’, however they’re only at 10% of the Tories predicted numbers.

Anyone else get a slight feeling that Alaistair Campbell and Nadine Dorries dont like each other?

“Personally I doubt that he will last more than 12 months, but we’ll see.”

I’ll happily take that bet.

“Ok, I am putting myself out there for ridicule. Can someone explain to me why it is something to be worthy of concern, right now, that we see people voting for Reform. They aren’t going to win many seats, the majority of their team will not win. LD will get more seats but nobody is going Oooooh we are going to be ruled by the LD’s. Surely its just a load of guff?”

There’s been a consistent shift to the hard right across Europe, but we have fptp and Europe is generally some form of proportional representation which gives them more of a footing.
so there’s really two outcomes for the UK.
1. That a few seats here for reform is a beachhead to reform takeover of parliament
2. What will actually happen is they will do sweet fa for five years and lose their seats, if they haven’t already been kicked out of parliament and lose them in by-elections.

Those fond of clutching their handbags at the meer mention of farage think it’s outcome 1

you think Starmer won’t last 12 months?

I think that he won’t last long, no. Personally I don’t think he is prime ministerial material, certainly not in the way that Blair was. I suspect that Labour will need to replace him before the next general election. But as I said, we’ll see.

Edit: For example I don’t think that Starmer is decisive enough to deal with the endless crises that Prime Ministers have to face. But we will know when we cross that bridge – leaders of the Opposition don’t have to deal with crisis in the way Prime Ministers have to.

Hat of the day in Blyth. I’m assuming that’s a uniform, not her normal wardrobe.

I immediately thought of

If it really is 13 I will die laughing if farage isn’t one of them

Dorris is a quite worrying person to have ever held a modicum of powered.

Poor old Mad Nad. She’s still too thick to realise that she’s here for the comedy value and she’s more than living up to her billing

They should win seats regardless of how much any of us, especially me, dislike the idea.

German liberals in the 1930s would probably agree.

Edit: Looks like a significant swing from both tories and labour to reform in brexit voting areas. This is how it starts.

Personally I doubt that he will last more than 12 months, but we’ll see.

Utter bollocks as usual ernie. FFS

I think both Blyth and Sunderland are demographically likely to be higher than normal on reform support; as noted before very brexity, quite anti-immigration, etc. I wonder what reform % will be like in more ‘moderate’ areas

BBC analysis just now saying Leave voting seats are showing 18% swing to Reform; Remain voting seats 9%

I think they’ll net out at something like 15-18% overall. What will also be interesting is whether their vote is inflated because as a ‘protest’ vote are voters more motivated to go out and vote. So they got 26.9% of a 53% turnout in Blyth – means round numbers 14% of eligible voters overall…. is that (extreme to make the point) 100% of the actual Reform supporters turning out, or did 47% of Reform supporters really stay at home, etc. Were labour and tory voters the main contributors to the low turnout because it was a ‘foregone conclusion’ for both of them?

Nadine is just remarkable!!!

Some times a nick name is completely justified.

Mad Nad, she wears it with pride.

Think I can only manage 10 mins at a time of Nadine. Alistair Campbell is going to swear at her soon…she is poison incarnate

Another hefty reform vote ?

Taking a lot of votes from Tory…..I can only see a hard right turn from them in response.

Utter bollocks as usual ernie. FFS

Unable to make a point without resorting to insults?

German liberals in the 1930s would probably agree.

Where to start with this?
Actually lets go for the easy starter for ten. If someone tries to overthrow the government then dont treat them with kid gloves? Think of any fptp country where that happened recently?
Then the follow up is when they get a third of the vote and so arent close to power then dont give them complete control.
I would lob in telling the Stalin lovers to sod off as well but thats a niche case in the UK.

Edit: Looks like a significant swing from both tories and labour to reform in brexit voting areas.

Edit: Where are you getting this from.
From the one seat we can directly cross reference the reform/tory vote has dropped from the tory/ukip vote whilst labour has increased.
For the one we cant whilst the labour vote has dropped in comparison to the main previous constituency so has the reform/tory vote.
It looks mostly so far a switch from tory to reform but a lot staying home.

I’ve never understood what determines the timing of when results are released? Aside from some teams being quicker at counting, is it down to electorate size/turnout and geography or what?

My proxy vote is in an electorate that’s been Tory since 1924 … there’s a chance it could go to Reform.

Agree with Ernie that Starmer is indecisive and I’ll be surprised if his legacy is positive. But something seriously major will have to happen for him to be out of office in less than 12 months!!

I managed less than 10 minutes of CH4 coverage. The USP of TRIP and Maitlis and he podcast is grown up, respectful and serious political discussion….Dorries does not bring that. Nor does **** gogglebox

Mad Nad has either flounced or gone to the bar. Probably both

Edit: For example I don’t think that Starmer is decisive enough to deal with the endless crises that Prime Ministers have to face.

I’m not sure decisiveness will be an issue now the GE is won, he had to do hand stands on a tightrope during the GE, that’s done with now. I believe Starmer will graft, a lot of it wont necessarily make headlines but the results will.  He will be the Labour leader going into the next GE.

Let me know if the CH4 coverage takes a more sensible turn post Nads! BBC is pretty dry

From CH4, “the Labour cabinet is likely to be the most working class the UK has ever seen.”

I’m opening myself up to getting flamed for empathising with people, but life is f k ng shit for a lot of people. They’ve been let down by successive Tory governments, they’ve been consistently told that Labour is just the same. So the frog faced c t is throwing out all this claptrap that immigrants, human rights, and foreigners are to blame for their woes and they’re buying it. If your social media is feeding you this all day it’ll get through.
I’m frankly surprised they haven’t got more of the vote, however depressing that would be

.

That a chancer like Farage is doing so well shows we have serious problems with our democracy.

That a chancer like Farage is doing so well shows we have serious problems with our education.

there’s really two outcomes for the UK.
1. That a few seats here for reform is a beachhead to reform takeover of parliament
2. What will actually happen is they will do sweet fa for five years and lose their seats, if they haven’t already been kicked out of parliament and lose them in by-elections.

3. By the time there’s another GE Reform UK won’t exist and Garage will be back with the Send Them Back Where They Came From party or some other populist nonsense.

Personally I don’t think he is prime ministerial material, certainly not in the way that Blair was. I suspect that Labour will need to replace him before the next general election.

I’m inclined to agree.  On that QA thing a few days ago, Sunak ran rings around him.

Tom-B
Free Member

5 years of far right creep awaits. Reform will be leading the calls for PR…

I doubt it, I think they’ll be fantasising about either becoming the dominant right wing party or a coalition builder under fptp

I mean, it’s absolutely true that FPTP unfairly suppresses their number of seats, as it did with UKIP. But that’s not in isolation, the big picture is that they’d have more seats under a more representative system but that they’d have less chance of ever having actual power.

We’ll be able to make better observations about this tomorrow once we’ve got national voter share figures, obviously you can’t just assume that people would vote the same under a different system, but it’s reasonable to say that the bulk of right-of-centre governments have happened because FPTP rewarded the tories for being one strong party and punished left of centre parties for being more diverse. Certainly the recent “majorities” have depended completely on FPTP. Nobody right of centre is blind to that I think.

Buckland has gone.

“BUT WHAT ARE YOU DOING WITH THE TRAILS BEHIND NATIONWIDE?!”

Haha Buckland!!

@Northwind Reform guy on BBC was straight in with the PR calls.

Robert Buckland gone with a 16% swing

The first of many, surely?

“I’m inclined to agree. On that QA thing a few days ago, Sunak ran rings around him.”

Because question time is truly representative of running a country…

I’d rather have a thoughtful person with empathy than the shouty dweeb we’ve had in no10 recently

please can the tory stronghold here in devizes change also like swindon also please.

fantastic to see the tories getting soundly slapped (shame about reform though getting seats/votes though).

Nor does **** gogglebox

No idea why CH4 decided to put Gogglebox on, daft decision.

I’m expecting a Starmer government to be boring but competent managers/bureaucrats and hard workers. I think that’ll be what’s most needed to deal with systematic and institutional sized problems.

Crack open a bottle to celebrate. A lovely wee dram

But something seriously major will have to happen for him to be out of office in less than 12 months!!

Sure, I’m thinking of unresolved crises and a total collapse in the opinion polls for Labour with a stratospheric rise in support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.

The crucial issue here imo is the one which I suggested earlier, Labour don’t appear to be coming to power with a large share of the vote and strong personal approval for the Leader, unlike 1997.

And the economy is not in the same place as it was in 1997.

Starmer has his work cut out. Personally I don’t think that he is up to the job. But I could be wrong of course – there is no way of knowing until he is tested.

People seem to have forgotten that he owes most of his success to the failures of the Tories. From now on the buck stops with him. It’s a whole new ball game.