UK Election!

“It’s worth remembering that the new Parliamentary Tory Party is likely to be less right-wing than the previous one”

Good luck with that!

Dorries is just texting Boris all night.

She’s asking “what should I say now oh great big Shagmeister“

Reform might take Truss’ seat.?

I still say that make of the Reform MP’s will be mired in scandal within months and be workshy bar stewards.

It’s worth remembering that the new Parliamentary Tory Party is likely to be less right-wing than the previous one.

Ernie is correct. Hopefully.

Is there anywhere to watch the results that doesn’t have people that give me the urge to smash my TV? Tried C4 and BBC so far

I’m listening to Radio 4 – or more accurately, I’m watching Radio 4 being broadcast on iPlayer, which is really weird because not only am I putting faces to the voices I’ve been hearing for years, including the woman who reads the news, you can see the whole studio and see what people are doing when they aren’t talking. People are making nodes or apparently looking stuff up online, some are on their phones, producer types keep coming in and out to hand them things or fix audio gear and whatnot. Quite absorbing.

Massive vote for Reform! 29%! Sweet baby Jesus and the orphans!

Although the Reform/tory votes is lower than the Tory/Ukip vote in 2019.
Roughly a switch between the two and then a loss of a thousand votes each side.

Not a great labour vote. Up on 2019 but down on 2017 and 2015.

“If he has held his seat then he will have to resign his seat and step down before leaving, surely.”

The plane’ll have WiFi for that

Nice to think that Sunak has his suitcases packed and ready to go in the No10 lobby. :D

It’s worth remembering that the new Parliamentary Tory Party is likely to be less right-wing than the previous one.

Dunno if that’s true. They’ve got a tricky decision on whether they move left or right. Either could work. Either could fail

?Breaking: Rishi Sunak has handed a knighthood to Tory minister Alister Jack who admitted placing three bets on the election date, just an hour before polls closed in the General Election https://t.co/u1u6NvfVw6

— Peter Stefanovic (@PeterStefanovi2) July 4, 2024

Rishi Sunak handed a knighthood to Tory minister Alister Jack who admitted placing three bets on the election date, just an hour before polls closed in the General Election.
…
Mr Jack is alleged to have told a reporter he’d won £2,100 betting on the date of the election in the wake of Mr Sunak’s surprise announcement. But he later claimed his comments were “a joke… I was pulling your leg”.

Guess we know which votes Labour are going to be chasing for the next 5 years.

Not a bad thing though?

Reform voters having some political influence despite FPTP. As was the reason often given for voting Green even where they had no chance of winning.

And for everyone, best have those voters’ concerns adequately addressed by sensible people rather than do nothing about them risking further rise of the far right.

I mean it’s nasty but we’re in a democracy.

Channel 4

Mad Naz – what the **** is there for. Not opened her mouth since I turned on. The pay cheque I guess.

Guardian:

Prof Sir John Curtice, the psephologist who led the team that produced the exit poll, has just told the BBC that they are least confident about the seat figures for Reform UK (13) and for the SNP (10).

With the SNP, he says they have fewer sampling points in Scotland, making it harder to get a firm forecast. But he says he is confident about Labout being the larger party in Scotland.

And he says, with Reform UK, there are seats where they are ahead, but the margin is very tight. He says they could end up with quite a lot less seats, or perhaps even more.

Oh, looks like George Galloway is losing his seat in the exit poll! I’ll treat myself to a malted milk for that, ?

Sunderland with Reform in the second place. Approximately 7k plus difference only.

Sunderland was the most Brexity city in the UK (IIRC). If Reform were only a Brexit party, you’d expect their support there to be the strongest in the country. But with their new, overt xenophobic platform, maybe they have a wider appeal.

That reform vote in Sunderland ?

5 years of far right creep awaits. Reform will be leading the calls for PR….very hard to see how LD and Green navigate that. We’re seemingly not far away from the wider European far right turn…..but FPTP could be keeping a lid on it. ?

Hat of the day in Blyth. I’m assuming that’s a uniform, not her normal wardrobe.

“Dunno if that’s true. They’ve got a tricky decision on whether they move left or right. Either could work. Either could fail”

They’ll be likes rats in a sack tomorrow morning. What emerges from that is most likely (unless the bookies are wrong) to be led by Badanoch or Braverman and will so be indistinguishable from Reform

So if the SNP is down from 43 to 13 of 59, where does that leave the independence movement?

That reform vote in Sunderland ?

5 years of far right creep awaits. Reform will be leading the calls for PR….very hard to see how LD and Green navigate that. We’re seemingly not far away from the wider European far right turn…..but FPTP could be keeping a lid on it. ?

This. My feelings too. Scary.

the median share of the vote for Labour has been 38%, and 42% for Conservatives. Labour have polled as per historic rate.

Is that what the exit poll is predicting – 38%?

Not only is that less than Labour recieved in 2017 it’s only 6% more than they received in the disaster that was the 2019 general election.

Labour have their work cut out, I can’t imagine that they will have the luxury of a honeymoon period.

It’s also what I predicted on this thread yesterday! I suggested that it would likely be 38% for Labour and 24% for the Tories. I have no idea how close my Tory prediction was?

Nope. Take it back. Leadsom is loathsome again.

“If he has held his seat then he will have to resign his seat and step down before leaving, surely”

Forecast is bad for tomorrow. Do you think they’ll be able to organise a brolly this time?

second result, reform in second place again. they are going to get a significant % of the votes even if they only get a few seats

Two results in and a strong reform result in both – tory revolt or are we a closed border country in waiting? (For the record I am very left leaning – it’s a genuine question not inflammatory)

Vorders is in CH4 later. Look forward to her take!

I’d be delighted if Reform got a huge slice of the vote but minimal number of seats.

“Labour have their work cut out, I can’t imagine that they will have the luxury of a honeymoon period.”

I don’t think anyone in the Labour Party is deluded enough to believe there would be a honeymoon period Ernesto.

Starmer had already said he’s pushing back and shortening the summer recess so they can set about getting stuff done. Nobody is going on holiday

but FPTP could be keeping a lid on it. ?

No it really isnt. Since as it is they are being pandered to but despite that still whine about being victims.
FPTP fundamentally fails everyone but a minority of swing voters.
Reform are doing well since they are offering a change. Now I struggle to see why anyone would believe Farages company given the track record but I cant blame people for looking at the choices and thinking sod it its worth a gamble.

Not only is that less than Labour recieved in 2017 it’s only 6% more than they received in the disaster that was the 2019 general election.

4 horse race, particularly seeing how much Reform are polling.

I think both Blyth and Sunderland are demographically likely to be higher than normal on reform support; as noted before very brexity, quite anti-immigration, etc. I wonder what reform % will be like in more ‘moderate’ areas

Widdicombe really is a truly dreadful human being isn’t she.

Even if the Tory mps remaining are more moderate than the ones getting kicked out I still think they will vere sharply right.

ITV briefly explained vote efficiency, which is partly why vote share flatters 2017 election and labour. Large support but in fewer seats, so not impacting seat gains. That has changed. An interesting factor to consider, and not simply Starmer’s luck. Changing the distribution of votes to areas where it can change seat outcomes, is an achievement.

Two results in and a strong reform result in both – tory revolt

It looks to be a tory switch.
Houghton and Sunderland South
The reform/tory vote is lower than the tory/ukip vote in 2019 with Labour having increased.
Blyth and Ashington is trickier since its a constituency change but seems to be roughly the same.

So unfortunately the tory voters have switched from tories to Farage plc.

So if the SNP is down from 43 to 13 of 59, where does that leave the independence movement?

A debate for another day.  Next holyrood election will be much more important but I am reading the SNP loses as two things – 1) a general hold your nose and vote the tories out and 2) after 17 years in power in holyrood thy are tired and folk are tired of them – but you must remember the SNP are only a part of the independence movement and the way FPTP works in Scotland with the extra party small shifts can mean big losses.

Werstminster elections are not so important for the indepeneence movement

But a debate for another thread and time

Ok, I am putting myself out there for ridicule. Can someone explain to me why it is something to be worthy of concern, right now, that we see people voting for Reform. They aren’t going to win many seats, the majority of their team will not win. LD will get more seats but nobody is going Oooooh we are going to be ruled by the LD’s. Surely its just a load of guff?

hope the trend that the exit poll is over estimating the reform % continues. though it is underestimating the tory vote too

FPTP fundamentally fails everyone but a minority of swing voters.

As long as it’s failing reform voters it’s doing its job. If we had PR right now Reform could well be the official opposition. They may look like a ramshackle bunch of idiots now but give them time and they’ll do what the french fascists have done and make themselves more presentable. Early days yet but the signs are ominous.

I don’t think anyone in the Labour Party is deluded enough to believe there would be a honeymoon period.

That’s likely to cause him problems then. Tony Blair came to office in 1997 with a huge wave of public approval, and it would appear a much larger share of the vote.

This provided Blair with a lot of public goodwill and a long honeymoon period (for the record I thought he was a ****) He was able cash in on this goodwill for a long time.

If Starmer has to be on the defensive and prove himself right from the start that’s not a good thing. Prime Ministers always become less popular with time so it helps to start from a high point.

Personally I doubt that he will last more than 12 months, but we’ll see.

Hang on, you think Starmer won’t last 12 months?