First up, it would be flippant and naive not to mention the events of last night in Nice at the start of this post. It is sad, tragic and frankly, heart breaking, my thoughts are with all those involved.

Back to less serious stuff, it’s TT time, a normally boring stage but, as this tour has been anything but normal, we’ll see.

The first time trial of the Tour de France is featured on the thirteenth day of the race, which is quite unusual. Suspense hasn’t been killed any such race. The first nine riders on GC are still within two minutes after the battles of the Massif Central, the Pyrenees and the Mont Ventoux. Chris Froome dominates. That puts him in the situation of a hot favourite ahead of the 37.5km long individual time trial from Bourg-Saint-Andéol to Caverne du Pont d’Arc. He has a chance to increase his lead over Adam Yates, Nairo Quintana and all other GC contenders. Two hills are on the course, one at the beginning and one at the end. It won’t be a nightmare for the climbers. Most of them fear the time trials but not this one. However, it suits the specialist as well. Tom Dumoulin has full confidence after he won the queen stage of the Pyrenees. Tony Martin and Rohan Dennis are more under pressure to deliver.

Fast.

As ever, off to Inrng for the contenders:

The Contenders: this is the perfect course for Tom Dumoulin, a mix of climbing and fast roads. The Dutchman opted to ride the Tour de France with this stage in mind and has already won a stage along the way, proof all is well. The only concern is that he was working yesterday after team mate Warren Barguil got caught in the crosswinds. But so was everyone else.

Tony Martin got to work for Etixx-Quickstep. Once upon a time he was so dominant in the time trials that he helped keep stage previews short but these days he’s far from the certainty he used to be, his only time trial win this year was in the German championships and his last World Tour TT win was in the 2015 Tour de Romandie. Still here is a course to suit.

Another worker is world champion Vasil Kiryienka but his title says as much about the world’s and it’s slot as a late season event and a win seems improbable.

Can Fabian Cancellara win? He’s had a resurgent season in terms of TT results with Tirreno-Adriatico, the Algarve and the Tour de Suisse but all were shorter tests of brute force compared to this hillier test so his chances are lower.

Next among the TT specialists is Rohan Dennis. A big talent, he took the yellow jersey in last year’s Tour but 2016 has been a quieter season, a win the Tour of California along the way but he didn’t topple any big names.

Now to Chris Froome. What will he do today, skateboard through the tunnel section? Amid yesterday’s shock and confusion he won the Tour de France, dropping Nairo Quintana with his two attacks and the only other competent time triallist in the top-10 is Tejay van Garderen who cannot match the pace in the mountains. The course suits Froome, don’t forget he ran Tony Martin close in 2013.

Among BMC Racing’s two leaders Richie Porte looks the better on the climbs so can Tejay van Garderen redress the balance here? Neither is racing each other but they can climb back up the overall classification at the expense of all the climbers in the top-10 right now. Van Garderen is seventh overall and could, should haul himself much higher up.

A few pics from yesterday, at least one of which will be iconic in years to come.

Carnage

Once again, there are some stunning pics of the stage at Cycling Tips.

First up, it would be flippant and naive not to mention the events of last night in Nice at the start of this post. It is sad, tragic and frankly, heart breaking, my thoughts are with all those involved.

well put lunge, loving your work with these threads

Be surprised if it went ahead today

Be surprised if it went ahead today

It’s going ahead.

The #TDF2016 caravan comes from it will be silent the day’s stage is dedicated to victims of #Nice enhanced security

La caravane #TDF2016 vient de partir Elle sera silencieuse L'étape du jour est dédiée aux victimes de #Nice
Sécurité renforcée

— Préfet de l'Ardèche (@Prefet07) July 15, 2016

better translation – The TDF caravan has just set off. It will travel in silence. Today’s stage is dedicated to the victims of #Nice. Enhanced security

Awful awful stuff. Can’t bear to think of it.

the race yesterday wasn’t much better. I’ve not followed road riding for a very long time but ever since I have I’ve had a growing unease about the sheer numbers of spectators on the climbs, epecially since given a fairly static percentage of idiots in any crowd, more people = more idiots. We need the crowds to generate the sheer atmosphere – it’s electrifying even just watching on TV so it must be awesome in the midst of it – but the riders need more protection

I think Quintana’s done. He didn;t seem to have anything yesterday. From the highlights I saw, he made a couple of fairly ineffective breaks and then had nothing when Froome went. Porte impressed, he covered everything like lighting, and Bauke Mollema gets a big old *chapeau* for joining Froome and Porte after they went

In terms of today, Froome for the win over Tejay. Richie to be top 6

My 13 yr old son and I are heading flying to Paris next Sunday as we won grandstand tickets for the finish on Champs Elysee – he asked me this morning if it would be safe for us to go or should we stay at home.. 🙁

Good work yet again lunge. After yesterday’s stage craziness i think it will be a run of the mill TTing session, which I hope Froome gains more time on. Following yesterday’s other – horrific – craziness, this will rightly be a muted race day.

EDIT – iainc: that’s very sad 🙁

Thoughts with Nice. Well put by all above.

What are the start times for each individual rider today?

EDIT – iainc: that’s very sad 🙁

yes, he is bike daft and has been so excited, he watches the highlights every evening with me and knows the stats inside out. Has certainly taken the shine off it and I guess it will be very tight security.

Thoughts with all those who have suffered 🙁

As this is the second most boring stage in this years race I’ll go for Mr Fabulous.

Glad to hear it’s still being run, that the Tour respect both the situation and humanity.

@iainc it is sad to think he is scared, but if it was my daughter asking at that age i’d be explaining to her that whilst the pair of you will need to be aware of the risk it is important to not let these people affect your way of life and the decisions you make as if you do they win. The final stage of the tour will be a fantastic spectacle and something you will remember for ever.

^^^^^ rusty – great minds think alike – that is almost verbatim what I said over the breakfast table earlier !

don’t forget he ran Tony Martin close in 2013

I think he might do that again this year

Tragic situation.

gwaelod – Member

Be surprised if it went ahead today

Don’t want to seem argumentative given the events, but don’t experts in that sort of thing say that altering things in the light of an attack only makes more attacks likely. therefore I think having the stage go ahead is absolutely the right thing to do.

However, I can’t imagine what it must be like having to get into a race frame of mind after hearing about Nice, especailly if you are French.

I’m pleased the tour seem to be handling the situation with dignity. From a competition point of view, its probably ‘good’ timing its a time trial today.

@iainc, real shame that your son’s excitemtn is dampened, however I’m sure it will build again and i’m certain security will be very tight to ensure Paris is safe.

Right then, time for my ever inaccurate predictions.

I actually think the Inrng have this nailed today, it’s a Dumoulin stage, a few hills, a good length of TT and he wasn’t involved in the fun and games yesterday. I also think Froome will be angry as I suspect he will feel he could have put even more time into Quintana yesterday so he too will go well.

Quintana, gone.

Shocking and tragic news from Nice.

Froome to finish in the top 3, Nairo to lose less time than people expect. Dumoulin or Dennis for the win.

Van Garderen to do less well than people expect. He’s a decent TT’er but always seems to disappoint when it’s part of a grand tour. Porte will finish ahead of him today.

and he wasn’t involved in the fun and games yesterday

Dumoulin did a lot of work dragging Barguil back yesterday.

Quintana, gone.

I’d definitely not write him off yet! He got lucky yesterday though, would have been a minute on the line if it wasn’t for the incident. Still the biggest threat to Froome in the 3rd week (aside from the motor!) Froome should have the mental edge on Quintana after yesterday though.

I’m cheering for spartacus, he’ll be nowhere near but it’s a habit, Dumoulin ftw.

I’d definitely not write him off yet!

Not wriiten of fbut he knows two things

1.Froome is stronger than him – he keeps dropping him so psychologically he is damaged

2. Froome is better on the time trials

IMHO there is nothing he can do to alter this so without an accident or loss of form or bad day he cannot win it

It wont be a procession to the line but no one can be in any doubt that Froome is stronger than his main challenger

Terrible events in Nice. Family and friends are ok. My BIL (who lives in San Francisco) was in Nice with his parents but they decided fo go to the Cannes fireworks last night. Ian its the right question your son and you are asking, will drop you an email.

Yesterdays events at the TdF sent a warning signal to the event organisers, it could so easily have been much worse with Froome and other riders injured. They need to look very closely at the rules too, yesterday they had a bail out by taking Mollema’s time but what if he’d not ridden to the finish ? The solution was a compromise and I think Quintana would have been even further back in a clean finish, effectively the TdF would have been over.

A strange day today, riders alone rather than together in the peleton. I hope mentally they can focus on the racing, at least its a short stage.

It wont be a procession to the line but no one can be in any doubt that Froome is stronger than his main challenger

And Froome and Quintana both know this now. I’d still expect Quintana to have a go at Froome in the 3rd week, probably the only one who will. Chance of success is looking increasingly slim though.

See Pinot has abandoned this morning. Been out of sorts all tour. Sickness maybe?

Quote from Dumoulin…

“Normally it would but so hilly that guys like Tony Martin, Rohan Dennis and Cancellara are out of contention. It can be good also for them but the hillier the better for me definitely,” Dumoulin told Cyclingnews. “I have only seen [the course] on a video but it looks hard, and it looks promising for me.”

Really quite surprised he’s not checked out the course first hand given this is a really good chance of a stage win for him!

True enough

Sometimes I wonder if he is just a bot conservative or if he knows he is the , slightly lesser, man

perhaps his plan is to use stamina to explode in week three and it will all be fireworks

Froome does look peerless though ans its good to see a GC rider doing varied tactics from flat stages breakaways and solo over the top breakaways…oh and jogging 😉

oh and jogging

Amused at the people claiming he should be penalised for that. Rules only state you need a bike with you when you cross the finish line and need to complete the stage under your own power… which is more than Quintana appears to have done 😉

Rohan Dennis going very quickly out there. Could it be that the stage is won long before the coverage actually starts 🙄

the cheeky beggar!

Interesting footage of Quintana! Definitely profiting from the crash and commisairre’s looking elsewhere

I think Porte is going to put in a good showing today, he looked strong yesterday and is a good time trialist.
Think Quintana will go better than expected – he’s done well in a couple of minor TT’s this year – will still lose at least a minute to Froome though

Dennis now in the hot seat with 51.56. Average of 43.32kph. Not that quick for a TT so course must be pretty hilly and windy.

@iainc, that’s sad but understandable from your son. It sounds as though you’ve said all the right things to him though and hopefully you’ll both still have a great time.

Of course the MO of these nutters is to attack soft (i.e. unguarded) “targets”. So, the sad fact is that you are probably safer on the Champs Elysee, with all the security than you would be at your local village fete.

Note: no actual statistics were used in making this spurious claim, but hopefully you see what I mean.

I shall apply my anti-Midas Touch to Cancellara. 😉

thansks roverpig – aye, hopefully a few evenings of watching the highlights and he’s back in the zone. Think I’ll go out for a road ride with him tomorrow morning and we can do a time trial ! ….he may even beat me 🙂

I’ve got a mental picture of you two in one of those Skoda adverts now 🙂

🙂 I shall be sure to post up some pics 🙂

New Rapha Skinsuit for Sky

Oooh Dennis beaten by Nelson Oliveira. Be interesting to see the splits, I think Dennis faded a bit in the second half of the course.

Be interesting to see what Kiri ^^^ up there does in the rainbow stripes. He’s there do to a job for Froome so I wonder if he’ll take it easy today.

I shall apply my anti-Midas Touch to Cancellara.

Oh and Cancellara home, 1’50” down on Oliveira.

Be nice if this was on telly but Eurosport are showing the Ventoux stage for about the hundredth time!

Interesting commentary by Dennis…

Provisional stage leader Rohan Dennis spoke to letour.com: “Overall I’m happy with the ride, it’s been a tough Tour so far. Considering it’s stage 13, it’s a different feeling time trialing with super fatigue, especially when the course is so hard, not just the climbing in general but the wind as well played a huge part. I think one major factor for anyone who’s gonna be going for today’s stage is what wheels they pick. Look, some of the smaller guys might not be picking a faster wheel and just because of their weight and not being able to hold the bike. You’ve got those crosswinds so maybe it might help us. As bigger guys, you could say… I’m hoping for my own sake that that’s the case but it’s definitely not an easy course today. It’s quite challenging.”

Could be a tough day for Nairo.

Cancellara out of the top 5 already!

More from Dennis…

Rohan Dennis also gave his comments with regards to the favourites to letour.com: “I can’t disregard Froome, that would be stupid. He’s a great time trialer and climber. As you’ve seen he’s got power in the flat and the hills at the moment. He’s probably one of the big favourites. For us in general, with BMC, Tejay and Richie are in great positions. The factor of the wind is going to be the biggest factor for guys like Richie, and what wheels he picks are obviously gonna be pretty decisive. Hopefully for his sake and our GC the hope is the wind does drop and he can really use his strength on the climbing to take time out and then he won’t lose the time so much in the wind along the ridge of the first climb. Tejay is pretty strong all round as well. Mollema I’m not 100% sure how he time trials, I’ve never seen him at the top of TT ranking. Quintana I think is in the same boat as Richie. I don’t know how he’s gonna handle the wind.”

Having said all along that I don’t think Quintana will lose much time today, I’m beginning to think he just might.

The Panzerwagen out on the course.

First up, it would be flippant and naive not to mention the events of last night in Nice at the start of this post. It is sad, tragic and frankly, heart breaking, my thoughts are with all those involved.

Personally, I think they should have cancelled the day as a mark of respect and mourning. Exceptional circumstances. I can’t motivate interest in the stage.

And my team was built for this stage. Dennis and the Panzerwagen for 1-2.

Personally, I think they should have cancelled the day as a mark of respect and mourning. Exceptional circumstances. I can’t motivate interest in the stage.

Am inclined to agree.

And my team was built for this stage. Dennis and the Panzerwagen for 1-2.

Dennis already down in 3rd.

Pinot’s out as well 🙁 .

The wheel has fallen off the Panzerwagen
Losing time all at every check

Personally, I think they should have cancelled the day as a mark of respect and mourning

Terrorism works by making pope change the way they live and being scared

To defeat it you first need to carry on unaffected by them, however hard that must be