[Closed] This SNP rout.....

So the SNP have given us CMD and a referendum on leaving the EU.

Looks like a substantive change and a second referendum to me. I can live with that.

And they'll likely get devo max. Result!

Or people just decided Ed Milliband and Ed balls would have been incompetent in government.

Labours inability to look at their own faults does not bode well for the future of their party.

I predict the tories to reign for a few parliament yet.

This the perfect result for the SNP. Massive support in Scotland and an unpopular Tory government in Westminster. If the Tories don't play the EU referendum extremely carefully the Union could be over.

the strength of support for the SNP before the election is probably the reason we now have a Tory government

You may have that backwards.

wanmankylung - Member
So the SNP have given us CMD and a referendum on leaving the EU.
Looks like a substantive change and a second referendum to me. I can live with that.

So which bit of that has been voted for in the last 24 hours? Or were the SNP just kidding?

Sturgeon: 'We want another referendum'

Cameron: "Settled for a generation"

Sturgeon: 'we will fight the Scottish election on a manifesto of another referendum'

Cameron: "Settled . For . A . Generation!"

Etc.

If the Tories don't play the EU referendum extremely carefully the Union could be over.

Getting rid of 50+ hostile MP's would give them a decent majority in Westminster.

This the perfect result for the SNP.

Disagree. Unless the tories want to give them the referendum, they won't get it. Labour may of been forced to, if they required them for power. Although it would of been political suicide to do so.

So which bit of that has been voted for in the last 24 hours? Or were the SNP just kidding?

Have you not been watching as usual?

Don't make the mistake of assuming that SNP support means support for independence.

I've voted SNP in the past and probably would have voted for them again if I was currently north of the wall, but I would also have voted No in the referendum.

I suspect many voters may feel the same.

(For now anyway. Another five years of the Tories may well persuade some that they'd be better off independent)

[i]Don't make the mistake of assuming that SNP support means support for independence. [/i]

+1

Stopped the Tory getting in here 🙂 although only 320 votes in it.

So the SNP have given us CMD and a referendum on leaving the EU.

Oh the ironing.

[img] https://encrypted-tbn3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT1KAneJ82CW-KS4x5KPCazH3NgnfKZMUgRCGCLx9vUafUIMlSAeQ [/img]

Do we think that another referendum would produce a different result ? I can't see that a lot has changed - Labour supporters moving to SNP may be the very same people who voted No. Not much else has changed, apart from the plummeting oil prices, so some recalcs might be required.

I still think SNP should field candidates down south, and allow the whole UK to vote in the referendum, it's the only way to be sure !

I don't know if you're any good at sums, but Labour have 230 seats, SNP 56 and Tories 326. Assuming Scotland had voted Labour in all seats, then they would have had 286 seats, which is still a Tory government
And somehow it's all our fault that you voted Tory,

Rightly or wrongly, the fear of 56 SNP MP's, punching above their weight in a Labour coalition, was a major factor that so many voted tory.

Looks like a substantive change and a second referendum to me. I can live with that.

The substantive change will be the Smith Comission report. Plus English Votes for English Laws.

So the SNP slaughtered Labour IMO by aligning them with the Tories over the referendum and the electorates view that a SNP/Labour coalition would keep out Cameron and deliver further devolution.

The fact is vote SNP get Conservative has been the result. Sturgeon is already trying to message that the loss by Labour to Conservatives in England was the issue but it was not and she knows it. The UK electorate knew Labour could not govern without the SNP and they did not want that.

From The Guardian

"But the first minister is a cautious operator, and she’ll only push for another plebiscite when polls show 60% or more supporting independence. But the point is that a Tory-led government makes that much more likely. And if Scotland votes to stay in the EU and the rest of the UK votes to go out (certainly not a given), it’ll be game on. Given last year’s precedent, Westminster would find it virtually impossible to withhold its consent."

Do we think that another referendum would produce a different result ?

At this moment in time the result would probably be a bit closer than it was last year. However, after another few years of Tory rule - who knows.

Do we think that another referendum would produce a different result

I was a staunch no voter. Not because I'm absolutely opposed to independence, but because the case that was made for it by the SNP was weak and without substance.

With Sturgeon at the helm instead of Salmond, I think the yes campaign would be different second time round. I admire her much more than Salmond and I think she's more straight talking. I think we'd get more commitment over the issues that Salmond was too non-commital over (currency being the main problem)

or to paraphrase from '92

'It's the SNP wot won it'

😆

I dont think the SNP will get anything like what they want.

They have very few seats in the UK and now have the tories and Labour lined up against them.

Referendum wont happen and the whole legitimacy thing wont win them anything.
UKIP has more legitimacy as they have twice as many voters.

I think the Tories will be out for revenge and I dont think anyone will be able to vote their proposals down.
Problem with the SNP vote is its divide and conquer, the only problem with that is they have divided their allies. and grown weaker as a result.

True George, true.

And if Scotland votes to stay in the EU and the rest of the UK votes to go out (certainly not a given), it’ll be game on.

Not sure of this. Surely the referendum will be a straight in/out vote for the whole of the UK. The fact that a relatively small number of people (i.e. Scots) voted against won't matter.

Indeed for Scotland to stay in the EU surely it would need to be independent from the rest of the UK?

Rightly or wrongly, the fear of 56 SNP MP's, punching above their weight in a Labour coalition, was a major factor that so many voted tory.

UKIP has more legitimacy as they have twice as many voters.

If we had proportional representation maybe, as it is - nope.

At this moment in time the result would probably be a bit closer than it was last year. However, after another few years of Tory rule - who knows.

Do we think that another referendum would produce a different result ?

With the prospect of the tories ruling in England for the next 10/15 years? Absolutely I think it would.

Labour are an utterly busted flush(and they still aren't willing to admit it.)

@BigBut you need to appreciate that the strength of the SNP hurt Labour in England. For all your anti-Tory stance it was Cameron who gave you the referendum.

@seoas - yes "you" have helped kill Labour, this is the democratic consequence of doing that. You get to run Holyrood, take it and do something with it.

With Sturgeon at the helm instead of Salmond, I think the yes campaign would be different second time round. I admire her much more than Salmond and I think she's more straight talking. I think we'd get more commitment over the issues that Salmond was too non-commital over (currency being the main problem)

The problem with having the next referendum so soon after is that people might rightly look at the Yes arguments in terms of figures promised from the last one. As the oil price has currently dropped it could easy to say "oh look, you projected x% income from oil, but you've actually got less than that, how would you have filled that £y billion shortfall".

SNP have about the same number of seats the lib dems had in 2005. I don't recall them wielding much power back then

I dont think the SNP will get anything like what they want.

UKIP has more legitimacy as they have twice as many voters.

The fact is vote SNP get Conservative has been the result.

Dear lord can no one do simple arithmetic? Read what BBSB posted up there but the facts are that Labour increased it's share of the vote and the number of seats in Parliament in the UK as a whole despite losing 40 seats in Scotland (the conservative vote actually increased in Scotland). Had all the seats in the UK been won by Labour the Conservatives would still have won an overall majority in the UK Parliament. As is totally normal, the results of a UK general election was decided by the voting patterns in England. Given the relative population size of England vrs the rest of the UK this should come and absolutely no surprise.

As a Scot who hasn't lived in Scotland for 30 years I've been trying to work out why Labour has been wiped out. Clearly the Scots don't want independence so why the support for the Scot Nats? I'm guessing from a distance that either Labour weren't left wing enough for them or they want Devo max or both. Fair analysis? In that case I say give them full fiscal autonomy, scrap the Barnett formula and see how they like paying for their socialist utopia.

UKIP has more legitimacy as they have twice as many voters.

What percentage of voters, who had the option, voted for UKIP?

Compare that to the percentage of voters who voted SNP when given the option!

jambalaya - Member

@seoas - yes "you" have helped kill Labour, this is the democratic consequence of doing that. You get to run Holyrood, take it and do something with it.

I feel no sympathy for the death of the Scottish Branch. They only have themselves to blame.

If the holyrood lot have any change, they need to become independent of the larger party. (they don't need to support indepedence, but they need to prove their autonomy)

Cameron just spoke and confirmed Scotland (and Northern Ireland and Wales) will get the devolved powers promised by all parties prior to the election. There you go that's it, that's what Scotland gets. Not more, not less.

Sturgeon has played this very cannily. Voters in Scotland believed they'd vote SNP and get a labour government that the SNP could screw for concessions in exchange for support. English voters were wary of voting for a weak labour government that would be compelled to capitulate to the SNP, particularly with all the bad feeling that was whipped up during the referendum with reports of Scotland getting a better fiscal deal than the rest of the UK. This unsurprisingly pushed more English voters towards the Tories. The final part of the plan will be if the rest of the UK vote to leave the EU, triggering another referendum. I imagine she was hoping for a few more UKIPpers to help this along, but that's not vital. I was dead against independence, but given a choice between that and staying in a UK that was out of Europe even I would probably change sides. So, good result for the SNP, but about as bad as it could possibly be for the rest of the UK.
I always thought it sounded a bit odd that the French ambassador would just make up the comment from Sturgeon that she would prefer another Conservative government.

@BigBut you need to appreciate that the strength of the SNP hurt Labour in England.

I feel no sympathy for the death of the Scottish Branch. They only have themselves to blame.

Don't make the mistake of assuming that SNP support means support for independence.

I've voted SNP in the past and probably would have voted for them again if I was currently north of the wall, but I would also have voted No in the referendum.

I suspect many voters may feel the same.

this...

I almost voted snp despite being rabidly for the union. In the end i didn't. Also their success is no great surprise, what i'm intersted to know is did as many folks vote for SNP as for yes in the referendum (not as a percentage of the vote). If not then it dosn't imo show any greater sway for independence after september.

Cameron just spoke and confirmed Scotland (and Northern Ireland and Wales) will get the devolved powers promised by all parties prior to the election. There you go that's it, that's what Scotland gets. Not more, not less.

With Sturgeon at the helm instead of Salmond

I think we'd get more commitment over the issues that Salmond was too non-commital over (currency being the main problem)

Don't make the mistake of assuming that SNP support means support for independence.

I expect the SNP to go as quiet as they can on any referendum questions,at least until after the Holyrood elections next year,so that they don't lose all the new support.
Meanwhile,they are going to make it interesting down in Westminster 🙂

Politician speaks, jamabalaya believes.

@rj there is absolutely no requirement for a further independence referendum to be held if the UK votes to leave the EU (which it won't btw). The democoratic process is such that Scotland can vote in the UK referendum about UK membership.

You asked:

what i'm interested to know is did as many folks vote for SNP as for yes in the referendum (not as a percentage of the vote). If not then it doesn't imo show any greater sway for independence after september.

1,454,436 SNP votes in the general election
1,617,989 Yes votes in the referendum

As far as I know, the SNP didn't campaign in England - feel free to correct me if I'm wrong

1,454,436 SNP votes in the general election
1,617,989 Yes votes in the referendum

Meaniless.

Doesn't account for the actual turnouts.

@beargrease interesting, Yes votes where 45% and SNP 50% and that was with 16-18yr olds voting in the referendum. Certainly understand left leaning voters voting no in order to protect wages and working conditions from the "race to the bottom" a Yes vote would have brought

@Bigbut - the SNP where all over our TV screens in the UK day in, day out. There is no doubt in my mind peole voted tactically with reagrd to the SNP and they made Labour lookk weak. The TV debate with Milliband and Sturgeon was a massive Labour error. It's really not hard to see they are unpopular with voters in UK as follows;

Tories, SNP are very anti Tory in their rhetoric
UKIP, SNP even more anti UKIP than Tory
Labour, pro union plus SNP accused them of standing with the Tories, SNP trying to win their seats weakening the party nationally

Meaniless

EDIT: Meaniless? Is that a word? Sorry I'm unable to help with your inability to use a spell checker.

EDIT #2: Added "Sorry" so as not to appear rude.

"I say give them full fiscal autonomy, scrap the Barnett formula and see how they like paying for their socialist utopia."

I doubt that Ann Gloag is paying so much money to the SNP just so they can bring about a socialist anything.

btw I agree this result isn't a mandate for another ref, the SNP never campaigned on that, so they will need to keep their powder dry until they have campaign on it.

Why can't we have a referendum in England to see how many people want to keep the Union with the Scots ?

TurnerGuy - Member
Why can't we have a referendum in England to see how many people want to keep the Union with the Scots ?

I'm not stopping you.

As a Scot who hasn't lived in Scotland for 30 years I've been trying to work out why Labour has been wiped out. Clearly the Scots don't want independence so why the support for the Scot Nats? I'm guessing from a distance that either Labour weren't left wing enough for them or they want Devo max or both. Fair analysis? In that case I say give them full fiscal autonomy, scrap the Barnett formula and see how they like paying for their socialist utopia.

Because on the whole, the Scots are a lot more switched on than we English seem to give them credit for. It's called having your cake and eating it. Realising that you can't make it on your own as a country, hence voting against devolution, but then voting your own national party into a massive landslide victory North of the border means they've effectively now got their own country, to run it as they want... Paid for by the rest of the UK of course...

But then there is some nice bike riding North of the border, so I'll not complain too much!

I N R A T S but

gobuchul - Member

Now the Conservatives have won a majority, it would seem they are not actually in a very strong position.

I am guessing that this massive support for the SNP, was on the basis the Scots were looking to be a tail wagging the dog, in collation with Labour.

Also, the strength of support for the SNP before the election is probably the reason we now have a Tory government, tipping the undecided towards the Tories.

So the SNP have given us CMD and a referendum on leaving the EU.

Oh the ironing.

Erm, no, England has given us a EU referendum by voting Tory. You could partially blame that on Labour being weak.

SNP has given Scotland's voters what they want.

but go on, have a good whine about it all!

EDIT Ooh more!

mboy - Member
Because on the whole, the Scots are a lot more switched on than we English seem to give them credit for. It's called having your cake and eating it. Realising that you can't make it on your own as a country, hence voting against devolution, but then voting your own national party into a massive landslide victory North of the border means they've effectively now got their own country, to run it as they want... Paid for by the rest of the UK of course...

The Yes vote seems to have grown and/or apathy grown in the no camp 🙄 . Sorry that you don't like that!

BigButSlimmerBloke >>
You voted for and got a Tory government. Well done you.
We didn't, but got one anyway.

Not quite, this is a United Kingdom, We voted for and got a tory Government. Well done or hard luck us. Scotland had it's chance to opt out of that "We", and chose to keep it. Saying we didn't vote for it so it isn't legitimate won't wash. It was agreed before the vote is would be a referendum not a neverendum.

I haven't read all that, so someone may have made a similar point.

In a couple of years we may have an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK out of the EU. The first would make me sad but it's understandable, the second chills me to the bone. Interesting times!

So the SNP have given us CMD and a referendum on leaving the EU.

No, the voters have given Scotland the SNP. It's called democracy.

My guess is the EU referendum is 50/50 and if we leave, then calls for Scottish independence and a referendum will be irresistible.

My guess is the EU referendum is 50/50 and if we leave, then calls for Scottish independence and a referendum will be irresistible.

* May contain irony.

1,454,436 SNP votes in the general election
1,617,989 Yes votes in the referendum

interesting numbers. Throw in the 16-18 year old vote and the numbers would be broadly similar.

I personally think the SNP without independence isnt nessecarily a bad thing. As Mboy says, having our cake and eating it....

The Yes vote seems to have grown

As said above, silly comparison.

So let's have some numbers to back up your assertion then? Or was that an AS style dismissal of dissenting voices?

interesting numbers

As above, you've not factored in the lower turnout or the age difference.

But keep trying!

test

As said above, silly comparison.

Why is it a silly comparison?

Based on the reasonable assumption that most yes voters would vote snp and given their momentum in scotland the vast majority of yes voters would turn out in the GE to vote SNP...

You've ignored the age difference and 71 vs 85% turnout.

I think anyone trying to extrapolate referendum voting intentions from last night is daft tbh.

The 2 factors of no voting SNP supporters, and yes voting non voters makes it impossible to glean anything meaningful from it.

what age difference? The 16-18 yearolds? Reread my earlier post if thats what you mean.

TurnerGuy - Member
Why can't we have a referendum in England to see how many people want to keep the Union with the Scots ?

It would actually be a lot easier for Scottish republicans if England and Wales quit the Union: Scotland would keep the UK's seat on the UNSC, would still be a member of the EU (wouldn't need to apply for membership as an independent state and have to sign up to Euro currency commitments), would keep the pound as its currency... I suppose they'd have to deal with NI but I expect they could cook something up with Ireland on that score.

What are you guys going to call your new currency? You can probably borrow Charles as your head of state as much as you want, though...

The 2 factors of no voting SNP supporters, and yes voting non voters makes it impossible to glean anything meaningful from it.

my point was simply that the SNPs success was hardly a surprise as the numbers are generally the same as in the ref.

The 2 factors of no voting SNP supporters, and yes voting non voters makes it impossible to glean anything meaningful from it.

+1, as I said earlier: SNP votes are not independence votes.

No idea where independence support is at the moment. I would imagine the arse falling out the oil price has given a few Yes voters pause for thought, but likewise the prospect of another five years of Cameron will have the No voters pondering.

Can I have what youre having Konabunny 🙂

@Bigbut - the SNP where all over our TV screens in the UK day in, day out. There is no doubt in my mind peole voted tactically with reagrd to the SNP and they made Labour lookk weak. The TV debate with Milliband and Sturgeon was a massive Labour error. It's really not hard to see they are unpopular with voters in UK as follows;

Tories, SNP are very anti Tory in their rhetoric
UKIP, SNP even more anti UKIP than Tory
Labour, pro union plus SNP accused them of standing with the Tories, SNP trying to win their seats weakening the party nationally

What are you guys going to call your new currency? You can probably borrow Charles as your head of state as much as you want, though...

I struggle to accept that a significant no. of SNP voters are no voters, given they are the only yes party with a chance.

With Sturgeon at the helm instead of Salmond, I think the yes campaign would be different second time round. I admire her much more than Salmond and I think she's more straight talking. I think we'd get more commitment over the issues that Salmond was too non-commital over (currency being the main problem)

This seems to me you are more thinking of voting for the party & its leader than for the concept of independence. If you believe in independence surly you should be voting for it either way. The leadership and position of a party is fleeting at best.